Big Blue Interactive The Corner Forum  
Back to the Corner
 

Archived Thread

NFL Draft Past 20 Years (1998 - 2017): Top 3 Selections...

M.S. : 1/8/2018 11:34 am
...60 players in all were taken:

25 Quarterbacks (41.7%)
10 Defensive Ends(16.7%)
9 Offensive Tackles (15.0%)
5 Wide Receivers (8.3%)
4 Defensive Tackles (6.7%)
4 Linebackers (6.7%)
3 Running Backs (5.0%)

Clearly, each new draft brings its own constellation of Top 3 perceived values and respective team needs. And the past is not necessarily prologue when it comes to player selections.

But given:

(1) The Giants need of finding Eli Manning's replacement;
(2) The presence of Rosen, Darnold, Mayfield et. al. in the 2018 Draft; and,
(3) That QB's have been selected with the Top 3 picks over 40% of the time...

...I'm sure as hell ain't betting against the Giants coming away with a QB at #2.




Isnt that also a function of  
Young Elijah : 1/8/2018 11:38 am : link
Most teams that finish with less than 3 wins tend to have really shitty QB situations?

If you want to bring a stat to the table- lookup those 25 teams and assess who their starter was and where they were in their career. I'm not disagreeing the giants will likely go QB, but that stat in itself means nothing to me when comparing our current situation. If DG and Eli want him at the helm for 3+ years, QB isn't the way to go unless its a cant miss prospect.
Cool.  
Beezer : 1/8/2018 11:40 am : link
Just wondering ... can you list the 3 RBs?
Giants had a solid QB in 04'...  
x meadowlander : 1/8/2018 11:40 am : link
...I guess it depends on Front Office opinions of this batch of QB's - are any of them franchise QB's?

How would you like it if the Giants passed on QB, only to wind up 3 years down the line with a mediocre QB situation, while Rosen/Darnold are lighting it up like Goff/Wentz?
RE: Giants had a solid QB in 04'...  
Beezer : 1/8/2018 11:43 am : link
In comment 13778065 x meadowlander said:
Quote:
...I guess it depends on Front Office opinions of this batch of QB's - are any of them franchise QB's?

How would you like it if the Giants passed on QB, only to wind up 3 years down the line with a mediocre QB situation, while Rosen/Darnold are lighting it up like Goff/Wentz?


Depends. How do the next 2-3 years go with Eli and/or Webb + the OTHER draft picks?
The Giants have  
Dnew15 : 1/8/2018 11:44 am : link
a pretty shitty situation at QB right now...
I think the Giants go QB or trade back  
est1986 : 1/8/2018 11:48 am : link
I would take Saquan in a flash but I doubt we do this despite the fact our current GM took a lesser RB with the 8th overall pick just last year in Carolina. We have too many needs for us to take a RB so high. We have had the worst OL and the worst LB group for the past 5 years straight but despite that poor track record OL's and LB's are needed this year more than any year ever in team history, we have not one, not one average Tackle, Guard, Center, ILB, or OLB, NOT ONE under contract for 2018 unless you want to say Flowers and Goodson are above average, I dont think they are. Hopefully Dave G realizes this, our last GM was satisfied with Bobby Hart as a starter with really no one behind him to push him for his job, that alone is a fireable offense. Reese's OL evaluation skills were his worst trait and probably ultimately cost him hos job.
I said 'mediocre' QB situation...  
x meadowlander : 1/8/2018 11:49 am : link
...a few years back, the Giants STOLE Ryan Nassib in the 4th round - some projected him as the Bills #1 pick.

Where is that guy now?

I don't recall Webb being projected as a #1 by anybody.

Simply put, more top-shelf NFL QB's are drafted in the first round than any other position.

Yeah, maybe the Giants will pick a Joe Montana or Tom Brady in later rounds.

Giant draft history says their Simms, Manning and Collins come from first round, top-10 picks. Historically, later rounds get the Giants the glory of Danny Kannell and Kent Graham.

There are busts. There is Dave Brown.

Safe money for the Giants future at QB rests in a #2 QB pick, period.
RE: Cool.  
M.S. : 1/8/2018 11:49 am : link
In comment 13778063 Beezer said:
Quote:
Just wondering ... can you list the 3 RBs?

2005 #2 Miami Dolphins; Ronnie Brown
2006 #2 New Orleans Saints; Reggie Bush
2012 #3 Cleveland Browns; Trent Richardson
As an aside, IMO I think the odds of taking Saquon Barkley...  
M.S. : 1/8/2018 11:55 am : link

...at #2 are remote.

Trading back a few slots, I think the odds are a lot better!
Here are the 25 QBs taken in Top 3 spots...  
M.S. : 1/8/2018 12:00 pm : link

...1998 - 2017.

Clearly, there are some clunkers here. There are also several high performing ones including HOF or near-HOF QBs:

Bortles, Blake
Bradford, Sam
Carr, David
Couch, Tim
Goff, Jared
Griffin III, Robert
Harrington, Joey
Leaf, Ryan
Luck, Andrew
Manning, Eli*
Manning, Peyton
Mariota, Marcus
McNabb, Donovan
Newton, Cam
Palmer, Carson
Russell, JaMarcus
Ryan, Matt
Smith, Akili
Smith, Alex
Stafford, Matthew
Trubisky, Mitch
Vick, Michael
Wentz, Carson
Winston, Jameis
Young, Vince
More clunkers and semi-clunkers  
Beezer : 1/8/2018 12:03 pm : link
than not.
Say what you want  
jvm52106 : 1/8/2018 12:09 pm : link
but 2 SB's in the 80's were because we had a defense that could win games. The SB games were won with defense and solid play by our QB but getting there was far more about the Defenses we had..

Everything in football is supportive and one bad piece can ruin a team. We can draft Dan Marino right (the 83 verison) and we would not win with BS collection of Oline, RB's and WR's (outside of OBJ) and our weak ass deep middle on defense (lb's and s's)....
RE: More clunkers and semi-clunkers  
x meadowlander : 1/8/2018 12:23 pm : link
In comment 13778114 Beezer said:
Quote:
than not.
I come up with 16/9 Good or Better/Average or Worse. 13 of those 16 I think are worthy of the top 3 pick. So, better than 50%.

I count Goff, Griffin III, Luck, both Mannings, McNabb, Cam Newton, Palmer, Ryan, Stafford, Vick, Wentz, Winston as those I think are worth a top-3.
No position influences wins like QB  
Jesse B : 1/8/2018 12:39 pm : link
Negligent for them to not take one
I don't see how  
lugnut : 1/8/2018 1:06 pm : link
We don't and can't go QB at #2. It's either get a premier QB now when we "naturally" have the #2, or a couple years down the road have to sell the farm to move up to near #2 to get a premier QB then.

You can't tell me there's any way to be absolutely 100% sure about a prospect, such that it justifies giving up multiple draft picks, rather than drafting who we see right now. You also can't tell me Eli is good to go for 3 more years.
RE: I don't see how  
Victor in CT : 1/8/2018 1:12 pm : link
In comment 13778289 lugnut said:
Quote:
We don't and can't go QB at #2. It's either get a premier QB now when we "naturally" have the #2, or a couple years down the road have to sell the farm to move up to near #2 to get a premier QB then.

You can't tell me there's any way to be absolutely 100% sure about a prospect, such that it justifies giving up multiple draft picks, rather than drafting who we see right now. You also can't tell me Eli is good to go for 3 more years.


Actually it's rather easy to see. The Giants (or any team in the same position) do their homework and determine that none of these QBs are worth a top 5 pick. Not too far fetched.
A team has no way of knowing if a qb is franchise qb until he gets on  
SterlingArcher : 1/8/2018 1:23 pm : link
the field and plays. As an example, BobIII and Colon-Crap-O-Pick were suppose to be franchise qb's and they were busts. If the Giants draft qb with their pick what is going to happen is this, the first pick Eli throws fans will be screaming for the new qb, the first pick the new qb throws fans will be running around like their hair is on fire screaming he is a bust and why didn't they draft xyz! The Giants need to start bringing in quality oline men and LB's, build your team from the inside out!
OK, snarkypants  
lugnut : 1/8/2018 1:54 pm : link
The Giants can do all the "homework" and "determine" all they want, but if they're being honest/sane about it, concede they can't be 100% sure about (1) draftable QBs now sucking or (2) QBs 3 years down the road being great. Remember how great Ryan Leaf was gonna be? And that Tom Brady kid? Nothing special. I MIGHT draft him in the 6th, but...

If there's a guy in 2021 who absolutely, no doubt is IT -- head and shoulders above Rosen/Darnold/etc. and can't miss -- probably everyone else will see that too. What do you have to give up to get to the #1 spot from, say, #16 (perfectly average) to go get him? Oh, and you could still be wrong.

Maybe I should put it his way: As a Giants FAN, do you trust the FO to really know what it's doing, to NOT take a QB now and instead sell the farm later?
Very insightful. So there is a good chance that at least 1 team will  
Ivan15 : 1/8/2018 2:14 pm : link
pick a QB, and at least one team will pick an OT or DE.

I could not have lived with this valuable info.
Many people did not think RGIII was a franchise QB. But it only takes  
Victor in CT : 1/8/2018 2:50 pm : link
one asshole, and lil Danny Snyder is usally willing to oblige. Kapernick was taken in the 2nd round, 36th overall, so not really relevant to this conversation.

as for you lugnut, I wasn't being "snarky". A GM and personnel staff job is to assign value. And it's very possible that none of these QBs aren't deemed worthy of a top 5 pick. There are many people voicing that opinion. Take the best player available. The Giants have many needs to fill.

Reaching for need is a great way to find long term ineptitude. And if you don't trust mngmt 3 years from now to make the right call, why do you trust them now?

Eli sucks so bad.......  
Alwaysblue22 : 1/8/2018 4:37 pm : link
The Post says that he would take the Jaguars to the SUPER BOWL and win it. Why? because Bortles really sucks. Well if Eli is that "bad" why don't we just give him a better line and RB like the Jaxs have and let him take the Giants to the Super Bowl and win it. I still do not comprehend why sports writers in this town that influence the opinions of sports fans want Eli replaced, and then write a story about how he would take the Jaxs to the Super Bowl. Maybe after watching Bortles play they all come to understand that the problem with the Giants is not the QB, or the lack of a RUNNING QB. Its the cast surrounding the QB. Ya Think?
So judging by this  
Breeze_94 : 1/8/2018 5:31 pm : link
No Guards have been taken, which would mean no Nelson although he may be the best Guard prospect in recent memory.

No DB's- I was surprised by this, but there was none taken. Jalen Ramsey and PP both went 5th though. I guess means Fitzpatrick isn't a realistic pick.

Lastly, not many LB's and I would bet none of them are off-ball 4-3 LB's so Roquan Smith isn't realistic at #2 either.

Not saying it's impossible, but there is no precedent for teams taking G, DB, or LB in the Top 3 which kind of rules out those players.

DG basically said he is taking a QB  
Rudy5757 : 1/8/2018 7:31 pm : link
If the grade is there in his interviews. You don't want to be a middle of the road team and have to trade up to get a qb. If they don't take a qb and Eli is able to get them back to 8-8 or 7-9 they would be in the 18 to 20 range and still need a qb. If in this draft you love a qb you trade up to get him. Moving up 1 spot would cost a lot less. That is if you love a qb like the Giants loved Eli. If you like 2 and you stay where you are. If you have a top 10 grade on a qb you still take him even if he is rated 10 on your board. You may never get another opportunity to take a top rated qb without trading too much. Or you could pass on a qb, have another middle of the road season and trade 2 1st rounders for the opportunity to take a gamble on a qb. Now, I know nothing about these qbs. So if the grade isnt there dont force it. They must have a top 10 grade. If its not qb you trade the pick to a team in need of a qb and use the picks to try to fill as many holes as you can. Webb is a non factor as he is an unknown to the new staff coming in. With him being drafted in the 3rd it tells me teams did not have a 1st round grade on him or he would have been drafted sooner.
Back to the Corner