If Watsonw as healthy at the time BB could have assume Houston makes playoffs. So instead takes 2nd round pick from a 49er team that was 0 for at the time. Sends Jimmy out of conference. Not a bad move.
1. BB isn't taking a 2nd round pick over a 1st round pick. 1. JG can leave in FA or stay and make a fortune on the tag. Eventually he can leave Cleveland if he wanted to.
I wouldn't be so sure about Belichick preferring a first rounder Â
I think Belichick's favorite spot to pick is probably high in the second round, where he feels like he's getting first round talent at a second round contract.
If true, that really backfired on them with Houston's steep decline Â
but the Patriots believe the top of the second round nets great value, because you're getting fringy first round talent at much less cost. They trade back into that part of the draft quite often. Also, it seems Belichick was trying to do Jimmy a favor by sending him to Lynch/Shanahan instead of Cleveland's mess.
RE: I wouldn't be so sure about Belichick preferring a first rounder Â
I think Belichick's favorite spot to pick is probably high in the second round, where he feels like he's getting first round talent at a second round contract.
Still don't buy it. He can always sell his 1st rounder even on the cheap and make out well.
I think Belichick's favorite spot to pick is probably high in the second round, where he feels like he's getting first round talent at a second round contract.
Then BB would have asked the Browns for their 2nd rounder, which would have been the 1st pick in the 2nd round. Or he would have taken that 4th pick and traded down to the top of the 2nd.
RE: I wouldn't be so sure about Belichick preferring a first rounder Â
I think Belichick's favorite spot to pick is probably high in the second round, where he feels like he's getting first round talent at a second round contract.
You can always trade back, even if you're just getting an additional late round pick.
And if you "hit" on the pick, there's a lot of extra value in that 5th year option for 1st round picks. Take Beckham for example (since you love him so much):
5th year option: $8.5M
Franchise tag: ~$15M
Plus the ability to tag the player after 5 seasons and thus control them for 6 if warranted.
the 4 year contract with 5th year option and rookie wage scale, have limited the risk of missing in the first round.
If anything you'd be able to argue he'd prefer a 1st round pick so he could trade back into the 2nd and/or accumulate more picks.
but the theory of Belichick preferring pick #34 over #4 (or even say #20 if you assume Watson remained healthy and was so good Houston was 9 - 7 or so) is silly.
the 4 year contract with 5th year option and rookie wage scale, have limited the risk of missing in the first round.
If anything you'd be able to argue he'd prefer a 1st round pick so he could trade back into the 2nd and/or accumulate more picks.
but the theory of Belichick preferring pick #34 over #4 (or even say #20 if you assume Watson remained healthy and was so good Houston was 9 - 7 or so) is silly.
Yup. Now BB might've taken #4 and dealt back 3 times, picking up an extra 2019 #1 and #2 while still amassing 3+ 2nd round picks in the 2018 draft, but no way he thinks a 2nd round pick is more valuable (ok, pick 33 might have more value than pick 32 since teams get the night to review their boards and pump trades).
RE: I wouldn't be so sure about Belichick preferring a first rounder Â
I think Belichick's favorite spot to pick is probably high in the second round, where he feels like he's getting first round talent at a second round contract.
so... he could have traded down. That pick is an asset
Isn't it reasonable to assume that Cleveland was "discussing" trading their pick for Garappolo but the Niners were ready to pull the trigger right away ? At the time it didn't appear that there would be much difference between the Niners early 2nd round pick an Houston's late first round pick. Obviously it backfired but its likely
BB saw a chance to get it done quickly with the Niners and went ahead with it.
RE: I wouldn't be so sure about Belichick preferring a first rounder Â
I think Belichick's favorite spot to pick is probably high in the second round, where he feels like he's getting first round talent at a second round contract.
But he'll probably miss out on all the kickers and punters that you have pegged as 1st round values. So is it really worth it?
works with franchise tags and teams having multiple picks? If CLE decides that they'd be willing to give up two firsts and make a monster offer for Jimmy G, would they lose the #1 and the #4? Would it just be the #1 and then CLE's 1st round next year?
A team like the Jets with a later first round pick and a ton of cap room might decide its worth it to go all-in for a potential franchise QB. Either way, I think Jimmy G is going to be one of the 3 or so highest paid players in football pretty soon.
RE: RE: I wouldn't be so sure about Belichick preferring a first rounder Â
I think Belichick's favorite spot to pick is probably high in the second round, where he feels like he's getting first round talent at a second round contract.
You can always trade back, even if you're just getting an additional late round pick.
And if you "hit" on the pick, there's a lot of extra value in that 5th year option for 1st round picks. Take Beckham for example (since you love him so much):
5th year option: $8.5M
Franchise tag: ~$15M
Plus the ability to tag the player after 5 seasons and thus control them for 6 if warranted.
You're asking someone who exists solely to be a contrarian to actually explain his flawed logic. Never gonna happen. Even money says he doesn't return to this thread.
It’s been reported the Pats would not send him to CLE regardless Â
That's a fair point, but I'm not in Belichick's head. This is the second source I've heard say that Belichick took less from San Francisco for Garoppolo than he could have gotten from Cleveland. Bill Simmons and Francesa talked about this on their podcast. It's not my idea.
Gatorade, I must have really said something to piss you off. That's a couple threads today where you've gone after me. I'll repeat what I said the other day: unless you're addressing me directly I don't read anything you post. There are a bunch of smart posters I seek out on BBI. You aren't one of them. You may as well not exist.
back to the subject, what you are suggesting still doesn't make any sense. The only, and I mean only way it makes sense is if BB thought the picks would only be a few picks apart like #28 and #34 which is, as you you, impossible to predict.
You are asking us to buy that BB is willing to take anywhere from 20-30 picks lower because he loves JG so much that he couldn't fathom to send him to a place he can eventually leave anyway. Makes no sense.
And while it isn't your idea your defense of it was the cheaper contract which ignores BB still being able to trade back and the 5th year option that's gold for a pick that hits.
Lastly, there's a lot of rumors that surround the Pats every year at playoff time, if you will believe this one than you should probably believe almost all of them.
The Browns would only give up a high 1st round pick if JimmyG
agreed to an extention first and the 9ers did not require that for a second round pick or didn't want to offer an extention until later?
That's a fair point, but I'm not in Belichick's head. This is the second source I've heard say that Belichick took less from San Francisco for Garoppolo than he could have gotten from Cleveland. Bill Simmons and Francesa talked about this on their podcast. It's not my idea.
Gatorade, I must have really said something to piss you off. That's a couple threads today where you've gone after me. I'll repeat what I said the other day: unless you're addressing me directly I don't read anything you post. There are a bunch of smart posters I seek out on BBI. You aren't one of them. You may as well not exist.
If there are smart posters that you seek out, you damn sure aren't learning anything from them. The constant contrarian drivel is a waste of bandwidth.
RE: I wouldn't be so sure about Belichick preferring a first rounder Â
I think Belichick's favorite spot to pick is probably high in the second round, where he feels like he's getting first round talent at a second round contract.
Like I said, it's not my idea. And there are two sources backing it up. Maybe it's just a rumor, I don't know. In listening to Mike Lombardi (who has experience working with Belichick) it seems clear that the Patriots don't approach the draft with the traditional thinking we've come to expect about how draft picks are valued.
That's a fair point, but I'm not in Belichick's head. This is the second source I've heard say that Belichick took less from San Francisco for Garoppolo than he could have gotten from Cleveland. Bill Simmons and Francesa talked about this on their podcast. It's not my idea.
Gatorade, I must have really said something to piss you off. That's a couple threads today where you've gone after me. I'll repeat what I said the other day: unless you're addressing me directly I don't read anything you post. There are a bunch of smart posters I seek out on BBI. You aren't one of them. You may as well not exist.
"Took less" might've referred to both teams offering a 2nd though. For the marginal improvement in Cleveland's pick (even now), BB might've been sympathetic to Garoppolo's cause. I have a hard time believing that a guy who has built a reputation as one of the more "ruthless" personnel managers would willingly pass on a first round pick for a 2nd, even if it "looked" like that 1st round pick would be in the 20s at the time.
And I mean ruthless in a good way as in more likely to cut/deal vets a year too early than a year too late, including players that he was presumably much closer too.
The Browns would only give up a high 1st round pick if JimmyG
agreed to an extention first and the 9ers did not require that for a second round pick or didn't want to offer an extention until later?
That's a fair point.
Or maybe a conditional pick, with the condition being that JG agree to an extension before FA (i.e no tag).
Like I said, it's not my idea. And there are two sources backing it up. Maybe it's just a rumor, I don't know. In listening to Mike Lombardi (who has experience working with Belichick) it seems clear that the Patriots don't approach the draft with the traditional thinking we've come to expect about how draft picks are valued.
I don't disagree, but I think those philosophies exist on picks they already have. When you are knowingly giving up value because of hurt feelings, I start to call bullshit on the rumors.
If this is true then BB willingly gave up a ton of value because of a personal relationship with his backup QB. Think about that for a second....
works with franchise tags and teams having multiple picks? If CLE decides that they'd be willing to give up two firsts and make a monster offer for Jimmy G, would they lose the #1 and the #4? Would it just be the #1 and then CLE's 1st round next year?
A team like the Jets with a later first round pick and a ton of cap room might decide its worth it to go all-in for a potential franchise QB. Either way, I think Jimmy G is going to be one of the 3 or so highest paid players in football pretty soon.
A player that is tagged can still be traded. So yes, CLE could go ahead and offer 2 firsts for JG.
If by "monster offer", you're referring to contract wise, then the 49ers could either match it or receive two first round picks as compensation. The picks would be CLE's 2018 and 2019, not two picks in the same year.
That wouldn't surprise me. It also wouldn't surprise me if Belichick didn't think there was a ton of value difference between the two picks. I don't think he operates that way.
Like I said, it's not my idea. And there are two sources backing it up. Maybe it's just a rumor, I don't know. In listening to Mike Lombardi (who has experience working with Belichick) it seems clear that the Patriots don't approach the draft with the traditional thinking we've come to expect about how draft picks are valued.
There was an article posted here yesterday (I think the posters been banned and the thread deleted) about how the JJ draft chart overvalues the higher picks, particularly the top 20. There are some other variations publicly available (see links), but I'm guessing BB's differing draft approach is more along those lines since he's as amenable to moving back as anyone.
really does stem from the old CBA and came to a head around the time of the Matt Cassel trade.
The Patriots (reportedly) eschewed "better" offer for Cassel and sent him to KC (along with Mike Vrabel) for pick #34.
The media at the time said Belichick prefers pick 34 to a 1st round pick because of the $$$ involved and the value. I was able to I guess buy into it to a point.
The Patriots in that time frame bypassed drafting players like Clay Matthews, Dez Bryant, Michael Oher - all representing needs - for trade downs and pick accumulation.
The strategy worked and didn't.
It resulted in them having a chance at guys like Gronk, but also resulted in 4 second round picks of Darius Butler, Ron Brace, Sebastian Vollmer, and Patrick Chung in one draft - all of whom added together don't = a 1st and 2nd rounder.
The local media coined the phrase of Belichick preferring three ponies to a horse and questioned the strategy since the roster lacked impact players (before Gronk was well established) and they went without a title from 2004 - 2014.
I don't believe the strategy is relevant any longer for the reasons mentioned.
That wouldn't surprise me. It also wouldn't surprise me if Belichick didn't think there was a ton of value difference between the two picks. I don't think he operates that way.
But there is, even if it isn't to him. The other 31 teams don't operate that way and would love a higher pick which is why he's able to trade back a lot. So while he himself may not see the loss in value, he's losing a ton of value with trading back and/or the 5th year option.
Again, it makes almost no sense unless feelings are attached which I don't buy with BB.
When Watson was injured and looked to have at least 3 more Ls even with him.
Even assuming a playoff its a 21+> 26 spot likely which may validate the take less to send JG who he may personally have liked.. to a better place.
7-9/8-8 likely meant 8-16 with the option to pick..or likely trade back if closer to 8 than 16...and given his love to deal I find it hard to imagine he would give up 5-18 spots..even figuring 10 spots..because he liked JG. Unless possibly coerced.. which makes part of the Wickersham article at least partly believable.
just saying.
and a person, my guess is that he took the lesser offer to prevent him from having to go to the wasteland in Cleveland. If it's true that Cleveland offered it's 2nd 1st rounder, there really is no other explanation.
Also possible BB didn't want to trade him within the AFC. Â
Sent him to an NFC team on the opposite coast. About as far away from New England as he could, both geographically and in terms of competition.
BB probably values that more than the difference between the picks he could get back.
More plausible than some of these other explanations, but it's not like we're talking about the Jets or an AFC East team here. We're talking about the Browns...
Cleveland never offered any pick for Garoppolo... Â
Because BB only spoke to SF about the trade. Suggesting Cleveland would have given up any specific pick (it wasn't # 4 at the time of the trade) is speculative, at best.
It became the #4 pick after Deshaun Watson got hurt and the Texans faded.
Still don't buy it. He can always sell his 1st rounder even on the cheap and make out well.
Then BB would have asked the Browns for their 2nd rounder, which would have been the 1st pick in the 2nd round. Or he would have taken that 4th pick and traded down to the top of the 2nd.
You can always trade back, even if you're just getting an additional late round pick.
And if you "hit" on the pick, there's a lot of extra value in that 5th year option for 1st round picks. Take Beckham for example (since you love him so much):
5th year option: $8.5M
Franchise tag: ~$15M
Plus the ability to tag the player after 5 seasons and thus control them for 6 if warranted.
Its a cute story, but I don't buy it. BB is shrewd and doing this deal would have been better for the team if it was on the table.
the 4 year contract with 5th year option and rookie wage scale, have limited the risk of missing in the first round.
If anything you'd be able to argue he'd prefer a 1st round pick so he could trade back into the 2nd and/or accumulate more picks.
but the theory of Belichick preferring pick #34 over #4 (or even say #20 if you assume Watson remained healthy and was so good Houston was 9 - 7 or so) is silly.
the 4 year contract with 5th year option and rookie wage scale, have limited the risk of missing in the first round.
If anything you'd be able to argue he'd prefer a 1st round pick so he could trade back into the 2nd and/or accumulate more picks.
but the theory of Belichick preferring pick #34 over #4 (or even say #20 if you assume Watson remained healthy and was so good Houston was 9 - 7 or so) is silly.
Yup. Now BB might've taken #4 and dealt back 3 times, picking up an extra 2019 #1 and #2 while still amassing 3+ 2nd round picks in the 2018 draft, but no way he thinks a 2nd round pick is more valuable (ok, pick 33 might have more value than pick 32 since teams get the night to review their boards and pump trades).
so... he could have traded down. That pick is an asset
BB saw a chance to get it done quickly with the Niners and went ahead with it.
But he'll probably miss out on all the kickers and punters that you have pegged as 1st round values. So is it really worth it?
A team like the Jets with a later first round pick and a ton of cap room might decide its worth it to go all-in for a potential franchise QB. Either way, I think Jimmy G is going to be one of the 3 or so highest paid players in football pretty soon.
Quote:
I think Belichick's favorite spot to pick is probably high in the second round, where he feels like he's getting first round talent at a second round contract.
You can always trade back, even if you're just getting an additional late round pick.
And if you "hit" on the pick, there's a lot of extra value in that 5th year option for 1st round picks. Take Beckham for example (since you love him so much):
5th year option: $8.5M
Franchise tag: ~$15M
Plus the ability to tag the player after 5 seasons and thus control them for 6 if warranted.
You're asking someone who exists solely to be a contrarian to actually explain his flawed logic. Never gonna happen. Even money says he doesn't return to this thread.
Gatorade, I must have really said something to piss you off. That's a couple threads today where you've gone after me. I'll repeat what I said the other day: unless you're addressing me directly I don't read anything you post. There are a bunch of smart posters I seek out on BBI. You aren't one of them. You may as well not exist.
You are asking us to buy that BB is willing to take anywhere from 20-30 picks lower because he loves JG so much that he couldn't fathom to send him to a place he can eventually leave anyway. Makes no sense.
And while it isn't your idea your defense of it was the cheaper contract which ignores BB still being able to trade back and the 5th year option that's gold for a pick that hits.
Lastly, there's a lot of rumors that surround the Pats every year at playoff time, if you will believe this one than you should probably believe almost all of them.
agreed to an extention first and the 9ers did not require that for a second round pick or didn't want to offer an extention until later?
Gatorade, I must have really said something to piss you off. That's a couple threads today where you've gone after me. I'll repeat what I said the other day: unless you're addressing me directly I don't read anything you post. There are a bunch of smart posters I seek out on BBI. You aren't one of them. You may as well not exist.
If there are smart posters that you seek out, you damn sure aren't learning anything from them. The constant contrarian drivel is a waste of bandwidth.
This post is a head scratcher Terps ...
Gatorade, I must have really said something to piss you off. That's a couple threads today where you've gone after me. I'll repeat what I said the other day: unless you're addressing me directly I don't read anything you post. There are a bunch of smart posters I seek out on BBI. You aren't one of them. You may as well not exist.
"Took less" might've referred to both teams offering a 2nd though. For the marginal improvement in Cleveland's pick (even now), BB might've been sympathetic to Garoppolo's cause. I have a hard time believing that a guy who has built a reputation as one of the more "ruthless" personnel managers would willingly pass on a first round pick for a 2nd, even if it "looked" like that 1st round pick would be in the 20s at the time.
And I mean ruthless in a good way as in more likely to cut/deal vets a year too early than a year too late, including players that he was presumably much closer too.
agreed to an extention first and the 9ers did not require that for a second round pick or didn't want to offer an extention until later?
That's a fair point.
Or maybe a conditional pick, with the condition being that JG agree to an extension before FA (i.e no tag).
I don't disagree, but I think those philosophies exist on picks they already have. When you are knowingly giving up value because of hurt feelings, I start to call bullshit on the rumors.
If this is true then BB willingly gave up a ton of value because of a personal relationship with his backup QB. Think about that for a second....
A team like the Jets with a later first round pick and a ton of cap room might decide its worth it to go all-in for a potential franchise QB. Either way, I think Jimmy G is going to be one of the 3 or so highest paid players in football pretty soon.
A player that is tagged can still be traded. So yes, CLE could go ahead and offer 2 firsts for JG.
If by "monster offer", you're referring to contract wise, then the 49ers could either match it or receive two first round picks as compensation. The picks would be CLE's 2018 and 2019, not two picks in the same year.
There was an article posted here yesterday (I think the posters been banned and the thread deleted) about how the JJ draft chart overvalues the higher picks, particularly the top 20. There are some other variations publicly available (see links), but I'm guessing BB's differing draft approach is more along those lines since he's as amenable to moving back as anyone.
http://myslu.stlawu.edu/~msch/sports/Schuckers_JQAS_NFL_Draft.pdf
http://forum.packerchatters.com/index.php?topic=1192.0
https://overthecap.com/drafting-decisions-and-the-salary-cap-2015/
The Patriots (reportedly) eschewed "better" offer for Cassel and sent him to KC (along with Mike Vrabel) for pick #34.
The media at the time said Belichick prefers pick 34 to a 1st round pick because of the $$$ involved and the value. I was able to I guess buy into it to a point.
The Patriots in that time frame bypassed drafting players like Clay Matthews, Dez Bryant, Michael Oher - all representing needs - for trade downs and pick accumulation.
The strategy worked and didn't.
It resulted in them having a chance at guys like Gronk, but also resulted in 4 second round picks of Darius Butler, Ron Brace, Sebastian Vollmer, and Patrick Chung in one draft - all of whom added together don't = a 1st and 2nd rounder.
The local media coined the phrase of Belichick preferring three ponies to a horse and questioned the strategy since the roster lacked impact players (before Gronk was well established) and they went without a title from 2004 - 2014.
I don't believe the strategy is relevant any longer for the reasons mentioned.
But there is, even if it isn't to him. The other 31 teams don't operate that way and would love a higher pick which is why he's able to trade back a lot. So while he himself may not see the loss in value, he's losing a ton of value with trading back and/or the 5th year option.
Again, it makes almost no sense unless feelings are attached which I don't buy with BB.
Even assuming a playoff its a 21+> 26 spot likely which may validate the take less to send JG who he may personally have liked.. to a better place.
7-9/8-8 likely meant 8-16 with the option to pick..or likely trade back if closer to 8 than 16...and given his love to deal I find it hard to imagine he would give up 5-18 spots..even figuring 10 spots..because he liked JG. Unless possibly coerced.. which makes part of the Wickersham article at least partly believable.
just saying.
BB probably values that more than the difference between the picks he could get back.
BB probably values that more than the difference between the picks he could get back.
More plausible than some of these other explanations, but it's not like we're talking about the Jets or an AFC East team here. We're talking about the Browns...