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NFT: What the hell is happening with MLB free agency

CMicks3110 : 1/9/2018 11:18 pm
no one is signing; no trades are happening; we are just short of a month shy of pitchers/catchers reporting. What's the hold up here? Everyone must have a sense of what the market is at this point? What new is going to come. 14 of the top 20 free agents according to ESPN have not signed
Everyone is giving up  
DennyInDenville : 1/9/2018 11:31 pm : link
The Yankees will win the next 5 World Series all other teams are saving money for 2023..

Giancarlo/judge/Sanchez omg

Imo.
Very weird though for sure  
DennyInDenville : 1/9/2018 11:32 pm : link
It's January..

Buyers market
It's very weird - especially since all teams got the $50m  
Eric on Li : 1/9/2018 11:45 pm : link
I have to think the trade market is possibly holding things up. I.e. a team like the Giants would prefer to trade for Yelich vs. signing Jay Bruce. But it is very strange.
I believe 11 of the top 15  
ZGiants98 : 1/10/2018 12:32 am : link
free agents haven't been signed.
Impact of analytics I guess.  
bceagle05 : 1/10/2018 12:41 am : link
Teams know exactly what value to place on a player, and refuse to budge. I think everyone's saving their money for next year's class, too.
Strategizing.  
old man : 1/10/2018 1:53 am : link
Still in shock on the Stanton pickup. Trying to figure out which FAs let them compete and/or which trade does that.
Everyone waiting for SOMEONE ELSE to make the first signing /trade and the $$$/(farm)players to set the market.
Plus do not want to give up kids they covet.
Nearterm paralysis of analysis.
RSox want to make a move, afraid of JD Martinez price; Dumb dumped the farm, waiting for the last 2 drafts to develop so can't, plus unsure that Devers was a short term spiker that needs to go back, or the true real deal.Stuck.
Fear=status quo.
Probably a combination of things ...  
Beer Man : 1/10/2018 5:28 am : link
1. Teams trying to stay below the Salary cap
2. Weak FA class
3. Teams looking at how the Yankees rebuilt their club with youth and are now thinking twice before giving out the gigantic contracts
4. Etc.

Maybe this is a shift in norms for mlb
I'm not really surprised at all.  
dank41 : 1/10/2018 8:05 am : link
Everyone is starting to see that overpaying and/or bad contracts can be a franchise killer for years.

I'm glad the Mets have played the market, instead of letting the market play them.
These things are dominos, right?  
Bill L : 1/10/2018 8:06 am : link
and Boras holds a number of the top end guys. IMO, he misjudged the market and over-promised his clients. Now he's trying to wait out the clubs in hopes that someone will break. The clubs, so far anyway, know his game and are holding fast to true value. We'll see who blinks.
RE: Impact of analytics I guess.  
dank41 : 1/10/2018 8:07 am : link
In comment 13780980 bceagle05 said:
Quote:
Teams know exactly what value to place on a player, and refuse to budge. I think everyone's saving their money for next year's class, too.


That too. It would be very silly for any team to commit to Hosmer, Martinez, or Moustakas at their "perceived" values when next years class has potential to be leaps and bounds better.
The team he wants for Martinez  
Bill L : 1/10/2018 8:09 am : link
whose signing should start the ball rolling, is Boston. But Boston is pushing up against the max luxury tax when you consider the number of their own young guys who they will have to extend over the next couple years. They barely have the money now.

Also, maybe teams are saving up for Harper and Machado?
arbitration offers are due friday right?  
TJ : 1/10/2018 8:17 am : link
I think most eligible players sign an offer before then - maybe there will be some movement when that's taken care of.
Everyone is waiting to see what the Mets...  
Italianju : 1/10/2018 8:33 am : link
do with there 10 mill i think.....
RE: These things are dominos, right?  
BigBlue4You09 : 1/10/2018 8:39 am : link
In comment 13781048 Bill L said:
Quote:
and Boras holds a number of the top end guys. IMO, he misjudged the market and over-promised his clients. Now he's trying to wait out the clubs in hopes that someone will break. The clubs, so far anyway, know his game and are holding fast to true value. We'll see who blinks.


This is exactly it
Mets fans donít want to hear it  
Shecky : 1/10/2018 8:51 am : link
But in this market you donít go after an A player unless his years and/or price drops a lot. Itís the second tier guys who can be had right now. And third tier guys will be dirt cheap and forgotten.

Thatís why you strike fast in this years free agency and wait for the second wave. Oh wait - forgot to strike first and fast too...
Saving for  
spike : 1/10/2018 8:51 am : link
2018 FA Class
teams don't want o give extended deals to these guys unless  
Victor in CT : 1/10/2018 9:00 am : link
they are truly top tier. And suit the need.

For example, Boras can plant all the shit he wants, but it doesn't change the fact that JD Martinez is not a good fit for Fenway. He's a staright away to right center hitter, the deepest part of the yard. So, he did a good job creating a "Martinez to the Red Sox" vibe, but Sox proably don't think he's a fit for them. And other teams who may have interest buy into the Sox story and don't want to bid aginst themselves.
Luxury tax threshold  
ManningLobsItBurressAlone : 1/10/2018 9:18 am : link
is essentially acting as a salary cap for the typical big spenders in the market (Dodgers, Yanks). I think there's definitely a link to next year's free agent class, and just how strong it is, and resetting the tax bracket for these heavy spenders can save millions and millions of tax dollars.

I also think that the cream of this year's FA crop, all come with age/injury concerns. JD Martinez and Yu Darvish are 30 and 31 respectively, and how many years and how much money do you want to commit to them? I think the Darvish domino, will lead to the other pitchers beginning to sign, like Arrieta, Lynn, and Cobb.

Regarding the other position players, I think there are a glut of similarly valued/skilled players depressing their markets. Low average guys with some pop that can be had for lower prospects at the deadline like Logan Morrison, Todd Frazier and Jay Bruce.

The Royals trio is holding out for the best deal, and they all have their warts. Cain is the only one that really surprises me at this point, I think he ends up being a great value for a team.
The luxury tax has become SO punitive that teams are unwilling to  
Greg from LI : 1/10/2018 9:20 am : link
incur it.
Collusion  
HomerJones45 : 1/10/2018 10:10 am : link
Theyíve done it before
Arrieta needs to set the picthing market  
Bobby Humphrey's Earpad : 1/10/2018 10:16 am : link
Alex Cobb is asking for 17M PY, but you can't say if it's exorbitant until Arrieta signs.
Seems like Cole to the Astros is imminent  
Stu11 : 1/10/2018 12:00 pm : link
Jon Morosi

Verified account

@jonmorosi
11m11 minutes ago
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Sources: Gerrit Cole trade to #Astros imminent. @MLB

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Nice Yanks dodged a bullet on that one...
Good  
Greg from LI : 1/10/2018 12:01 pm : link
Let them get bent over for a mediocre pitcher.
RE: Collusion  
Heisenberg : 1/10/2018 12:08 pm : link
In comment 13781270 HomerJones45 said:
Quote:
Theyíve done it before


Could be collusion. Could also be that teams realized that the cost of deals signed early vs those signed late are dramatically different. I think everyone is waiting the middle market out and there will be a flurry of deals in the next couple weeks.
RE: Mets fans donít want to hear it  
Shecky : 1/10/2018 9:32 pm : link
In comment 13781097 Shecky said:
Quote:
But in this market you donít go after an A player unless his years and/or price drops a lot. Itís the second tier guys who can be had right now. And third tier guys will be dirt cheap and forgotten.

Thatís why you strike fast in this years free agency and wait for the second wave. Oh wait - forgot to strike first and fast too...


Annnnnnd, itís official
I mean, outside of JD Martinez, who's really left as of today?  
Dave in Hoboken : 1/10/2018 9:33 pm : link
.
Collusion maybe on the players part  
xman : 1/10/2018 10:14 pm : link
The steroid era bounced those salaries nicely and added many years to the deals. Party is over. New stats allow owners to clearly see what they are buying.

Salaries are still very high. Wade 17 plus million for 71 innings wow.Santana 20 million. What leg do the players have to stand on alleging collusion?

Its few and far between when long term deals work out. ARod, CC Tex were poor deals.

Its a young mans game. Long term post 30 deals are bad deals for the clubs but spectacular for players.

I see it carrying over to this 'big' class next year. Maybe a tinge of rationality is finally descending on the owners. Heck you can probably pick the Duda's or Morrisons of the world up later in the year if you see a need
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