I don't think he's getting roasted enough. This coach Fuc%ed up. No other way around it. He screwed his team.
4th and inches? Pitch to the back 5 yards deep? Terrible but its one call.
Again...4th and short? Play action pass? Awful again but you can overcome it.
Terrible calls. You have an all pro C and G. And an ox at QB. Let him fall forward for the first down.
But it got worse for this coach.
The onside kick? No excuses. You are putting your season on the line for a slim shot recovery. No defense. No explanation. Id fire his stupid ass tonight.
We had...
2 TOs left.
2:20 on the clock.
Blake Bortles on the other side at QB.
Outside of the RB dump off he looked shaky. He's been dumped on for a month. Any player. Any coach. Should love him on the other side vs their team with a playoff game on the line. If he beats you with a play? Fine. But put the pressure on him to do it.
They forced a punt on 3 of the last 5. Even on the TD drives they had them in 3rd and long. But forget all of that. If PIT kicks it deep that team would run it 3 times.
Tomlin is telling everybody he thinks the odds say "try the onside kick"? He said "We hadn't stopped them convincingly enough"? That's BS.
The 4th down calls were awful.
The onside kick is indefensible. It was a hail mary call when you didn't need it. Chances of getting the onside kick in that situation? Under 15% when the other team expects it. That;s the number I hear all of the time, but that 15% number seems high to me. It almost NEVER happens when the opposing team is lined up for it.
Stopping Blake Bortles from picking up a first down on the road in a playoff game? That's for damn sure higher than 15%.
This coach blew it. He deserves a good ripping for it.
With 2 minutes left you arent covering the entire field any more.
You are stopping a first down. Against a team that will probably run it 3 times.
The defensive approach changes.
Is it guaranteed to stop them? Hell now.
Are the chances of getting that 3 and out much greater than getting that onside kick? Hell yes.
But again, this does not matter.
It's about risk/reward and nothing else.
How the fuck does anybody think the onside kick gives them a better shot?
What are the % when the other team is ready for it? Its under 10 right?
1 in 10? But Id say it is lower.
The odds of getting a 3 and out when you are selling out to stop it are unquestionably higher than 1-10 when Blake Bortles is on the other side.
But again, this does not matter.
It's about risk/reward and nothing else.
How the fuck does anybody think the onside kick gives them a better shot?
What are the % when the other team is ready for it? Its under 10 right?
1 in 10? But Id say it is lower.
The odds of getting a 3 and out when you are selling out to stop it are unquestionably higher than 1-10 when Blake Bortles is on the other side.
Im with you. 2:18 with 2 timeouts. Just mind numbmingly dumb to give them the ball at midfield. Fucking retarded
But you already said it: stop them and they likely get the ball inside their own 10. Going 80-90 yards against that defense in 1:45 with no timeouts would be beyond tough. Kicking the ball deep, and they get 2 first downs, games over anyways. Stop them, and they likely get the ball back around the 35 yard line and a much better shot of tying the score.
The idea of anybody defending the onsides in that situation is bothersome to say the least.
What you should have is a lot of confidence that the chances of getting that 3 and out are MUCH GREATER than getting that onside kick?
It should have been an easy call.
And then increasing your chances of stopping that 3 and out are BLAKE BORTLES and the adjustment you make on defense. You sell out to stop it. If you don't get it you lose. But you pack the box and make him make a throw that he has NEVER PROVEN he can make.
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in getting a 3 and out.
What you should have is a lot of confidence that the chances of getting that 3 and out are MUCH GREATER than getting that onside kick?
It should have been an easy call.
And then increasing your chances of stopping that 3 and out are BLAKE BORTLES and the adjustment you make on defense. You sell out to stop it. If you don't get it you lose. But you pack the box and make him make a throw that he has NEVER PROVEN he can make.
Are they? Pittsburgh hadn't stopped them at all on three consecutive drives. Kwall people disagree with you. Get over it.
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is ignoring everything I saw in this game.
He made the big throws when needed. If that were Eli you'd be singing his praises. The onside kick was dumb. But Tomlin had no confidence in his defense and with them having 42 points already on the board, he made a choice. Had it worked he was a gutsy genius. If you fire him for that your an idiot.
lol you don't know kwall if you think that.
The Jaguars weren't going to attempt a 50+ yard field goal in that situation - the Steelers needed to hold up better than what they did (no more than 5 yards) but they didn't.
Of course you could say the same applies even if they kick it deep, but the opportunity to get the ball at midfield with limited time remaining carried weight in this situation. The fact that the Steelers scored so fast on their final drive needs to be ignored because the Jags would not have played a similar defense in a one-score game.
You gave up 45 points to the Jags... it's ALL on the defense.
All the rest is meaningless.
Stop them a few times and you win easily, you scored 42 points.
His defense was giving up big plays.....so to say his call was indefensible, just doesn't hold water.....
The problem was it was a pathetic onsides kick attemot. So bad tht it cost them 10 yards of field position.
If they are 10 yards further back they dont kick a field goal, they punt or go for it.
- Andy Reid and the Chiefs folding, in a game where Hunt had more carries when Kelce was playing than after he was injured, and reid had terrible clock management
- Dan Quinn. Having two excellent backs and choosing to pass the ball at the goal line and going with the fades instead of buying time and looking for other patterns. Furthermore, he went away from pressuring Foles to a more passive D in the second half.
- Saints took a timeout immediately preceding the TD, presumably to discuss how not to let the Vikes let anyone get behind them. Even in the absence of a timeout, the result is painful, but knowing you specifically discussed the play and then watch it unfold is a dagger
- All the points KWALL brought up about Tomlin
It has really been a poor postseason for coaches.
Gutsy call and the end result worked in their favor, but it was absolutely the wrong call.
The onside kick wasn't that big of a deal. KWALL, your take doesn't really make sense to me. The only risk was field position. The Steelers needed a stop whether it was on the 50 or 25 of the Jags. If they couldn't stop the Jags at the 50, what makes you think they would have stopped the Jags if the Jags were on their own 20? The difference was, IF they stopped them, they'd get the ball at their own goal line when they missed the onside.
The Steelers weren't stopping the Jags no matter where they were.
Last point....you question the 4th down calls, but one of them led to a 45 yard td pass to brown.
You load up and make him beat you. There is no other decision.
And the TDs? They had a couple of broken plays. They had them 3rd and long and the CB Gay blows the coverage on the RB.
I'll take my chances on that again.
The long throw to the rookie Cole was shit. Artie Burns looks back and hes got it. This followed another shit throw from Bortles on a long one that Mitchel picks if he plays the ball. In between he did not look good outside of the dump off pass. That's all he has.
Put the pressure on Bortles and getting the ball back >>>>> the chances of recovering that onside kick.
Everything is so easy with 20-20 hindsight. If Pitt had recovered the onside kick, everyone would be hailing Tomlin as a genius.
I was not a fan of the onside kick and it was poorly done. But to ignore the fact that the Steelers D couldn't stop Bortles is nuts.
I’m agnostic on Tomlin, but the problem yesterday was the defense, not the offensive play calling.
That makes it even more brutal that a 90%+ success play is right there versus the other decisions they made, plus the onsides? Yeesh.
Ben alluded to the fact they haven't done a sneak in what felt like years, seems to be pointing the finger at Haley. I can't imagine Haley is with the team next year.
The jags were just better. They curb stomped pitt earlier in the year and if not for some brilliant play making out of pitt's stars would have been killed again.
Bortles also made a cautious believer out of me. He didn't get lucky yesterday. He seized the moment.
That makes it even more brutal that a 90%+ success play is right there versus the other decisions they made, plus the onsides? Yeesh.
Ben alluded to the fact they haven't done a sneak in what felt like years, seems to be pointing the finger at Haley. I can't imagine Haley is with the team next year.
Roethisberger is such a jerk off. How about getting your fat ass in shape for the first time in a decade?
Pittsburgh scored 42 points yesterday. The problem isn’t Haley. The problem is the defense (which suffered with the loss of Shazur) and the culture...
Not Crimes against Coughlin. Crimes against the fan base. Although to be fair I've also said that if they keep Coughlin the ship doesn't sink to the depths of 2017 which means we stay the course with Reese and Ross. Probably a blessing in disguise. Thank god mcsdoo wasn't just pretty bad. He was terrible enough to warrant a house cleaning.
As long as we make the right hire here we will be fine. I'm just not convinced we will.
Why can't I bitch about that move but others can bitch about a missed draft pick from 4 years ago?
A quick hand-off to Bell to the left gets them the first down, and I can't believe Haley called that play and Ben didn't check out.
As others have said, the execution of the onside kick was brutal. But maybe, in scouting the Jaguars, Danny Smith spotted a vulnerability in their "hands" team that convinced him there was a better-than-usual chance of Pittsburgh recovering. Even a 30% chance changes the decision math dramatically. The same situation often arises on close calls regarding two-point conversions: the head coach asks his offensive coordinator, "Do you have a play?" If the OC has a call he feels good about, that can tip the decision.
I thought the onside kick was a bad decision, but not an indefensible one - especially when you consider that one Jacksonville first down probably ends the game anyway, and that we don't know whether the Steelers had a good design for the kick that Boswell just didn't execute.
And it isn't "talking in circles" to point that out.
It was 2 plays. Thats it. We have a career worth of play from the guy not making plays.
If you get the guy to 3rd down is it guaranteed you stop him? No. But the chances of stopping JAX and getting the ball back were much greater than the onside kick call.
You kick it deep, and JAX probably runs it 3 times. If Bortles is asked to throw you take your chances that way. Not on an onside kick.
And I love the comment that the real problem was they "essentially got a first down". Well they didn't get a first down. They ran for 1 and 3. It was 3rd and 6. What did JAX do? Ran it again. No first down.
Fournette was banged up. Before the onside kick he didn't do anything for several drives. His runs were:
2, 4, 1, 0, 0, 2, 3, 2, 3, 1, 2,
11 carries - 20 yards.
After the onside kick, they ran it to Fournette on all 3 plays. They gained 1 and 3. 3rd and 6? They ran it again.
The Steelers were handling the run. If you kick it deep you know they're running. You adjust to stop it. If you get to 3rd down you take your chances against Bortles making a play. THat was the right call.
30?
How long have you been watching football? 30 is not reasonable.
In 2016 the recovery rate was 8 out of 60. This includes surprise onside kicks.
In 2015 it was 9 out of 66.
Thats 10% over a 2 year period.
And that includes surprise kicks which represented a large % of the successful recoveries.
In situations where the other team expects it your success rate is closer to 5-7%.
Pittsburgh surely would have loved to stop the Jacksonville running game and forced Blake Bortles to beat them with his passing. That didn't work. Jacksonville was very effective running the ball and Bortles was pretty good when he had to pass.
This is correct. It was a good call, bad execution.
Though Pitt would have to be ready for Bortles to scramble which he was doing very well.
Nevetheless, the JAX defense did everything they could to keep Pitt in the game as well in the 4QTR, so it splits both ways...
You also assume “somewhere around the 50” on the onside kick. But it could also be somewhere 45 or inside the 40 which it was.
If it’s at the Steeler 45 when they punt, a halfway decent punt puts them at the 10-15.
There is also a strong possibility that JAX would go for it on 4th down. If there is 1:50 left and 4th and short at the PIt 40. They may go for it to end the game. PIT just went down the field on them several times. Maybe they end the game there with a 4th and short conversion.
If they punt from their own 30, I’d rather put my chances with Antonio back there and have him put us in a better spot to win then the 5-7% shot of getting that onside kick.
One more thing..on the last punt by JAX, PIT blocked it.