...1998 - 2016 (in which 52 have been selected).
So, I tried to answer the following questions:
(1) What does the past tell us about selecting a QB with the #1 overall pick in the Draft?
(2) What does the past tell us about either staying put at #2, or trading no further down than 3 slots (#5) and selecting a QB?
(3) What does the past tell us about trading down beyond the fifth overall selection?
(Major qualifier: I've subjectively divided these first-round QBs into only one of three categories: Hit, Miss, Hit/Miss. I'm only interested in the percentage of QBs that "Hit."
(1) Out of 14 QBs taken with the #1 overall pick in the draft, 9 have been "Hits" (64% success rate) -- first chart.
(2) Out of 12 QBs taken with the second, third, fourth or fifth picks in Round One, 4 have been "Hits" (33% success rate) -- second chart.
(3) Out of 26 first round QBs that went after the fifth pick, 7 have been "Hits" (27% success rate) -- third chart.
Three observations:
Having the first pick in the Draft greatly increases the odds that you'll end up with a real keeper at QB... after that, the odds shrink considerably.
Moving out of picks 2 - 5 will reduce the odds of getting a "Hit" at QB, but the odds are not that much lower (33% vs 27%).
(Incidentally, there have been 5 QBs taken with the second overall pick... with 2 of them being hits.)
Overall #1 Pick in the Draft (64% "Hit" Rate)
1998 1 Indianapolis Colts Manning, Peyton Hit
2003 1 Cincinnati Bengals Palmer, Carson Hit
2004 1 San Diego Chargers Manning, Eli* Hit
2005 1 San Francisco 49ers Smith, Alex Hit
2009 1 Detroit Lions Stafford, Matthew Hit
2010 1 St. Louis Rams Bradford, Sam Hit
2011 1 Carolina Panthers Newton, Cam Hit
2012 1 Indianapolis Colts Luck, Andrew Hit
2016 1 Los Angeles Rams Goff, Jared Hit
2001 1 Atlanta Falcons Vick, Michael Hit/Miss
2015 1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers Winston, Jameis Hit/Miss
1999 1 Cleveland Browns Couch, Tim Miss
2002 1 Houston Texans Carr, David Miss
2007 1 Oakland Raiders Russell, JaMarcus Miss
Taking QB with second thru fifth pick (33% "Hit" Rate)
1999 2 Philadelphia Eagles McNabb, Donovan Hit
2016 2 Philadelphia Eagles Wentz, Carson Hit
2015 2 Tennessee Titans Mariota, Marcus Hit/Miss
1998 2 San Diego Chargers Leaf, Ryan Miss
2012 2 Washington Redskins Griffin III, Robert Miss
2008 3 Atlanta Falcons Ryan, Matt Hit
2014 3 Jacksonville Jaguars Bortles, Blake Hit/Miss
1999 3 Cincinnati Bengals Smith, Akili Miss
2002 3 Detroit Lions Harrington, Joey Miss
2006 3 Tennessee Titans Young, Vince Miss
2004 4 New York Giants Rivers, Philip* Hit
2009 5 New York Jets Sanchez, Mark Hit/Miss
Taking QB in First Round, but after the fifth pick (27% "Hit" Rate)
2003 7 Jacksonville Jaguars Leftwich, Byron Hit/Miss
2012 8 Miami Dolphins Tannehill, Ryan Hit/Miss
2011 8 Tennessee Titans Locker, Jake Miss
2006 10 Arizona Cardinals Leinart, Matt Miss
2011 10 Jacksonville Jaguars Gabbert, Blaine Miss
1999 11 Minnesota Vikings Culpepper, Daunte Hit
2004 11 Pittsburgh Steelers Roethlisberger, Ben Hit
2006 11 Denver Broncos Cutler, Jay Hit
1999 12 Chicago Bears McNown, Cade Hit/Miss
2011 12 Minnesota Vikings Ponder, Christian Miss
2013 16 Buffalo Bills Manuel, EJ Miss
2009 17 Tampa Bay Buccaneers Freeman, Josh Miss
2000 18 New York Jets Pennington, Chad Hit
2008 18 Baltimore Ravens Flacco, Joe Hit
2003 19 Baltimore Ravens Boller, Kyle Miss
2003 22 Chicago Bears Grossman, Rex Hit/Miss
2004 22 Buffalo Bills Losman, J.P. Miss
2007 22 Cleveland Browns Quinn, Brady Miss
2012 22 Cleveland Browns Weeden, Brandon Miss
2014 22 Cleveland Browns Manziel, Johnny Miss
2005 24 Green Bay Packers Rodgers, Aaron Hit
2005 25 Washington Redskins Campbell, Jason Hit/Miss
2010 25 Denver Broncos Tebow, Tim Miss
2016 26 Denver Broncos Lynch, Paxton Miss
2014 32 Minnesota Vikings Bridgewater, Teddy Hit
2002 32 Washington Redskins Ramsey, Patrick Miss
It's not an exact science. I do believe taking a QB in the top 5 means you probably have a better chance to succeed with that guy...but it's not a slam dunk by any means.
Definitely subjective on my part.
2 / 5 = 40% {:-) But 40% or 60%... maybe too small a sampling. That said, if I can't select a QB at #1, I prefer #2 over any other slots!
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60%
2 / 5 = 40% {:-) But 40% or 60%... maybe too small a sampling. That said, if I can't select a QB at #1, I prefer #2 over any other slots!
Mariota seems more likely to be a hit than a miss to me. Also, I think it is harsh calling RG3 a miss. More miss managed, never should have played on that knee injury. Robbed him of any potential career.
That said, good work
Vick...
..some of those marginal type QBs could have been at least serviceable in different situations.
It may not be possible to truly apply any singular metric.
Here's a way out scenario for you all.
Giants hire Shurmur who brings Case Keenum with him.
Giants trade Eli to Denver for their 2018 1st and 2nd and 2020 1st round picks.
Giants trade 2nd pick to Jets for their 1st and 2nd in 2018.
Giants pick 5th, 6th, 34th, 37th and 40th (5 picks in the first 40).
Giants address 2 OL's, edge rusher, MLB, and RB.
Never gonna happen but it's nice to dream (or hallucinate).
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60%
2 / 5 = 40% {:-) But 40% or 60%... maybe too small a sampling. That said, if I can't select a QB at #1, I prefer #2 over any other slots!
McNabb, Wentz, Mariota.
7 before the 4th. Plus a 4th.
Any one of which could possibly be a Rd one mention.
Here's a way out scenario for you all.
Giants hire Shurmur who brings Case Keenum with him.
Giants trade Eli to Denver for their 2018 1st and 2nd and 2020 1st round picks.
Giants trade 2nd pick to Jets for their 1st and 2nd in 2018.
Giants pick 5th, 6th, 34th, 37th and 40th (5 picks in the first 40).
Giants address 2 OL's, edge rusher, MLB, and RB.
Never gonna happen but it's nice to dream (or hallucinate).
Not sure Eli could fetch much more than a late 3rd rounder... maybe less.
I only ask that because Steve Young went from miss to hit to Hall of Famer after going to the 49ers... His first two seasons (19/28 games) at Tampa Bay with a horrid OL yielded a TDs-INTs-SACKs of 11-21-68.
IDK, but if you look at Sam Bradford's first 3 years as a Ram 45-34-105, one wonders if he had a decent OL (like Dak had when drafted by the Cowboys 23-4-25 in 2 years) what kind of player Sam might have become, or that Goff is enjoying 33-14-51 in 22 games.
This is why I don't like selecting a QB with the first selection. The Giants OL sucks and you need a VERY savvy NFL Vet QB and a host of very good WRs to make up for the crappy OL. I know it's chicken or the egg...but as good as Steve Young was coming out of college, he was TONs better after leaving Tampa Bay and inheriting a better OL, and he ran the ball a ton as well with the 49ers! Even Eli had a good OL...can you imagine if he didn't?
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In comment 13792192 jeff57 said:
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60%
2 / 5 = 40% {:-) But 40% or 60%... maybe too small a sampling. That said, if I can't select a QB at #1, I prefer #2 over any other slots!
Mariota seems more likely to be a hit than a miss to me. Also, I think it is harsh calling RG3 a miss. More miss managed, never should have played on that knee injury. Robbed him of any potential career.
Didn’t Mariota throw more picks than TDs this year?
I only ask that because Steve Young went from miss to hit to Hall of Famer after going to the 49ers... His first two seasons (19/28 games) at Tampa Bay with a horrid OL yielded a TDs-INTs-SACKs of 11-21-68.
IDK, but if you look at Sam Bradford's first 3 years as a Ram 45-34-105, one wonders if he had a decent OL (like Dak had when drafted by the Cowboys 23-4-25 in 2 years) what kind of player Sam might have become, or that Goff is enjoying 33-14-51 in 22 games.
This is why I don't like selecting a QB with the first selection. The Giants OL sucks and you need a VERY savvy NFL Vet QB and a host of very good WRs to make up for the crappy OL. I know it's chicken or the egg...but as good as Steve Young was coming out of college, he was TONs better after leaving Tampa Bay and inheriting a better OL, and he ran the ball a ton as well with the 49ers! Even Eli had a good OL...can you imagine if he didn't?
Ahhh... you raise some interesting points/questions, especially regarding what sort of offensive line does a brand spanking new QB come into. Also, I didn't factor in running QBs... and I must admit that while there were clear cut "Hits" and clear cut "Misses", I was definitely on shaky ground with some of the in-betweens and didn't really apply any quantitative analyses to decide who fell into the middle category of "Hit/Miss."
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In comment 13792235 M.S. said:
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In comment 13792192 jeff57 said:
Quote:
60%
2 / 5 = 40% {:-) But 40% or 60%... maybe too small a sampling. That said, if I can't select a QB at #1, I prefer #2 over any other slots!
Mariota seems more likely to be a hit than a miss to me. Also, I think it is harsh calling RG3 a miss. More miss managed, never should have played on that knee injury. Robbed him of any potential career.
Didn’t Mariota throw more picks than TDs this year?
He was banged up and operating under Mike Malarkey’s conservative offense.
Didn’t Mariota throw more picks than TDs this year?
He was banged up and operating under Mike Malarkey’s conservative offense.
Wouldn't the conservative offense mean less picks? Not saying he's bad but between the injuries and the turnovers I wouldn't say he's a hit yet.
The miss rate on the selection of QBs , beyond the first three picks , goes up dramatically
I have read that the hit rate for the first 2 picks is as high as 50% depending upon the criteria used and the hit rate drops to less than 1% after the third round
The statistics for the success rate also goes up with the first three picks when there are multiple QBs selected in the first round
Therefore if you want a franchise QB there is no guarantee at any point in the draft , however, you have far better odds if you are selecting in the first two picks
Part of that is a function of there being a lot more picks than #1 overall, but there's only one #1 overall pick each year. Run #1 overall against each specific pick if you want to really see the analysis. Otherwise, the argument is basically, "would you rather have the first pick, or the next 255 in the aggregate?"
Here's a way out scenario for you all.
Giants hire Shurmur who brings Case Keenum with him.
Giants trade Eli to Denver for their 2018 1st and 2nd and 2020 1st round picks.
Giants trade 2nd pick to Jets for their 1st and 2nd in 2018.
Giants pick 5th, 6th, 34th, 37th and 40th (5 picks in the first 40).
Giants address 2 OL's, edge rusher, MLB, and RB.
Never gonna happen but it's nice to dream (or hallucinate).
Two firsts and a second for a 37 year old Eli with four consecutive years of declining advanced metrics? Heavy on the hallucinate.