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Quarterback Market and the Draft

CMicks3110 : 1/17/2018 5:35 pm
Can we get a boatload of picks given the quarterback market right now by trading down several times?

When teams trade up in the 1st round, when they overpay, it's almost always because of a QB. This presents us with a unique chance to score an unusual amount of draft picks both this year and for the years to come:

There are currently 5 Blue Chip Quarterback Prospects coming out of the draft right now: Darnold, Rosen, Mayfield, Allen, and Jackson; plus you can probably throw in Rudolph as being a late 1st Rounder as well. Which is higher than a typical first round.

There are two major franchise QB level free agent out there in Kirk Cousins and Jimmy Garrappolo, and Garrapolo will almost certainly remain in San Francisco.

And there also happens to be an inordinate number of Quarterback needy teams, largely driven by the age of some of the long-time stars in the league, this includes: Jets, Giants, Broncos, Cardinals, Browns, Jaguars, Vikings, Bills, Redskins, Patriots*, Steelers*, Chargers*, Saints*.

Would it be outrageous to trade down several times to take advantage of this market dynamic?
Only if they plan on keeping Eli around  
barens : 1/17/2018 5:52 pm : link
for another 5 to 10 years.
And or...  
GFAN52 : 1/17/2018 5:53 pm : link
Webb turns out to be a franchise QB.
Could they? Yes  
JonC : 1/17/2018 6:01 pm : link
Will they decide it's prudent, or actually be able to pull it off in reality is a different story.

Don't overthink and overcomplicate it.
No it would not  
RetroJint : 1/17/2018 6:11 pm : link
The QB value board, which should always be viewed as separate and distinct from the one that includes every player, is always inflationary in impact. The Giants might be subject to a run at the position, teams moving up . #2 means “Quarterback.” Webb has been rendered a non-person because of the myopic manner in which these imbeciles choose to handle a 3-13 season . He doesn’t count in any calculations.
Eli is a short timer. When and how need to be determined , but this team must get a new quarterback . There is a half-ass way of doing this-sure. However I doubt Gettleman will succumb to it. And he will plot the course. He will make the decisions . I’m not worried about a “build around Eli” strategy because that strategy would also be utilized should they go young at the position . The team needs oline help. They need to get faster on defense .

You are talking about one pick being utilized to secure the best chance for a promising future. That does not mean a running back. There are no Bosellis or Munozes in this draft so it doesn’t mean offensive line , either. The team draft history and Gettleman’s would suggest Chubb for the D-line, but this is different . They need the Q. They must get the Q.
I love the folks who talk about trading down  
Chris L. : 1/17/2018 7:18 pm : link
and picking up picks. You do realize other teams would only make that move if they thought the QB they were selecting at #2 was a franchise QB. Who exactly then is OUR franchise QB for the next 10 years...Eli...no. Is it Davis Webb maybe but I am not putting all my eggs in that basket. Its real simple...pick the franchise QB at number 2 and be glad you were lucky enough to be picking number 2 in a GREAT QB draft.
The only place I would want NYG to trade down to is pick 4 with  
Rjanyg : 1/17/2018 8:47 pm : link
Cleveland. I would expect Cleveland would go Rosen and Barkley. Indy might field some trade calls but I would expect them to go defense, Either Chubb or Fitzpatrick. This would allow The Giants to take Rosen if he is there or go OL, and take Nelson. By trading back, NYG would get Clevelands 2nd round pick ( 33 ) and the first 4th round pick, giving NYG the first 2 picks of day 2 and day 3. Ideal positioning if you ask me.

So, give Cleveland the 2nd pick for Clevelands first 2nd round pick and the first pick of round 4.

NYG would have pick 4, 33, 34, 66, plus 3 4th round picks. Could be a haul.
RE: The only place I would want NYG to trade down to is pick 4 with  
Rjanyg : 1/17/2018 8:48 pm : link
In comment 13794645 Rjanyg said:
Quote:
Cleveland. I would expect Cleveland would go Rosen and Barkley. Indy might field some trade calls but I would expect them to go defense, Either Chubb or Fitzpatrick. This would allow The Giants to take Rosen if he is there or go OL, and take Nelson. By trading back, NYG would get Clevelands 2nd round pick ( 33 ) and the first 4th round pick, giving NYG the first 2 picks of day 2 and day 3. Ideal positioning if you ask me.

So, give Cleveland the 2nd pick for Clevelands first 2nd round pick and the first pick of round 4.

NYG would have pick 4, 33, 34, 66, plus 3 4th round picks. Could be a haul.

I meant Darnold and Barkley for Cleveland.
The Browns traded out when they needed a QB  
rasbutant : 1/17/2018 8:56 pm : link
They have a ton of picks, but the GM also got fired. The NFL is not very patience.

It can go either way and be the right call or wrong call. Its all about the scouts getting it right! Good to be at #2 with 2 blue chip QB's though.

Personally i think it comes down to Rosen. If you are a believer I would take him or Darnold, if not, hope someone else is and is willing to pay for it.
Ryan, I think in your plan Indy trades down with either the Jets or  
yatqb : 1/17/2018 9:12 pm : link
Denver, either of whom select the 2nd QB. Then they still wind up with Fitzgerald or Chubb at #5 or #6. We'd be left sitting at #4 with neither of our QBs there for us.
I'm glad Gettleman is an experienced,  
CT Charlie : 1/17/2018 10:52 pm : link
confident guy. Whether he's right or wrong, he seems like a good person to be making the decisions for us. Looking at the draft from my couch, it seems like the top of it holds a lot more uncertainty than usual.
RE: Ryan, I think in your plan Indy trades down with either the Jets or  
GFAN52 : 1/17/2018 10:58 pm : link
In comment 13794671 yatqb said:
Quote:
Denver, either of whom select the 2nd QB. Then they still wind up with Fitzgerald or Chubb at #5 or #6. We'd be left sitting at #4 with neither of our QBs there for us.


That is correct and why I don't see it happening.
RE: Ryan, I think in your plan Indy trades down with either the Jets or  
Gatorade Dunk : 1/17/2018 11:03 pm : link
In comment 13794671 yatqb said:
Quote:
Denver, either of whom select the 2nd QB. Then they still wind up with Fitzgerald or Chubb at #5 or #6. We'd be left sitting at #4 with neither of our QBs there for us.

There's a very good chance that's exactly what would happen - that's why you don't get cute when you're on the hunt for a QB prospect.

If the Giants decide that the best move is to go strictly BPA and not make a roster construction move for a QB successor, then a trade down could make sense, but if anyone thinks that NYG can drop down even a few picks and still get their guy (at QB) just because Indy doesn't need a QB is ignoring the fact that other trades can happen also. As soon as the Giants vacate the #2 spot, the #3 spot becomes incredibly valuable to Denver and NYJ.
Totally agree with above post  
Jimmy Googs : 1/17/2018 11:16 pm : link
Nice job
Has trading down  
lax counsel : 1/17/2018 11:17 pm : link
Away from a franchise qb ever worked for a team? Is there any statistical evidence of a team doing this to its benefit? I can't think there are many instances where a qb needy team trades away a shot at a franchise qb for any number of picks. Obviously the Browns are the most recent example and it got the entire front office fired. Would have to think the Giants front office are fairly big gamblers if they decide to trade away a shot at a franchise qb.

Accumulating picks only works if those picks turn out to be worth the value of an elite qb. Just as big of a risk of that not happening as the franchise qb being a bust.
Yes  
mdthedream : 1/18/2018 6:18 am : link
team like Denver and the Jets would be a perfect trade partner. Also yes QB is the one player that normally gets teams to go over the value board.
RE: RE: Ryan, I think in your plan Indy trades down with either the Jets or  
Rjanyg : 1/18/2018 7:40 am : link
In comment 13794803 Gatorade Dunk said:
Quote:
In comment 13794671 yatqb said:


Quote:


Denver, either of whom select the 2nd QB. Then they still wind up with Fitzgerald or Chubb at #5 or #6. We'd be left sitting at #4 with neither of our QBs there for us.


There's a very good chance that's exactly what would happen - that's why you don't get cute when you're on the hunt for a QB prospect.

If the Giants decide that the best move is to go strictly BPA and not make a roster construction move for a QB successor, then a trade down could make sense, but if anyone thinks that NYG can drop down even a few picks and still get their guy (at QB) just because Indy doesn't need a QB is ignoring the fact that other trades can happen also. As soon as the Giants vacate the #2 spot, the #3 spot becomes incredibly valuable to Denver and NYJ.


My original thought is more about getting Nelson and extra picks in great spots than targeting Rosen.

This draft will be interesting because the way the Giants feel about 3 QB's will dictate how this draft shapes up. Does Gettlemen believe that Eli should be the starter with Webb as the future or does he think he NEEDS to get Rosen because he is a generational talent at the QB position?

If he doesn't like Rosen than I would expect a trade back unless they love Barkley. I bet Cleveland would love to get both Darnold and Barkley. Getting both the first picks in rounds 2 & 4, especially since we have the 2nd pick in every round. Getting the opportunity to select at the beginning if each day after reviewing the board would be an ideal situation. It could be a best draft haul since 1986.
RE: Has trading down  
jeffusedtobeonwebtv : 1/18/2018 8:52 am : link
In comment 13794812 lax counsel said:
Quote:
Away from a franchise qb ever worked for a team? Is there any statistical evidence of a team doing this to its benefit? I can't think there are many instances where a qb needy team trades away a shot at a franchise qb for any number of picks. Obviously the Browns are the most recent example and it got the entire front office fired. Would have to think the Giants front office are fairly big gamblers if they decide to trade away a shot at a franchise qb.

Accumulating picks only works if those picks turn out to be worth the value of an elite qb. Just as big of a risk of that not happening as the franchise qb being a bust.


I would think not getting Ryan Leaf worked out for Arizona.

Not getting RG III should have worked for the Rams, but I do not think they did well with their picks.

And though they did not reach the Super Bowl, I think San Diego did well considering Eli Manning was not going to sign with them.
WB Market  
Peedib788 : 1/18/2018 9:21 am : link
What about Keenum? He’s a FA after this year, Shurmur’s done a great job with him in Minny so he knows the system. You could draft Barkley in Rd1, sign Keenum and focus on the line in rounds 2/3 or FA. Granted this means Eli is gone after this season, possibly to Jax to be back with Coughlin
The question  
MotownGIANTS : 1/18/2018 10:15 am : link
is does Gettleman want Kneenum or Bridgewater (knee pending) or brittle Bradford as a #2 will Webb learns from Eli 1 more year.

The #2 pick could be a cow bell RB ....

FA will be very enlightening for the short and mid range plans
RE: WB Market  
MotownGIANTS : 1/18/2018 10:17 am : link
In comment 13794991 Peedib788 said:
Quote:
What about Keenum? He’s a FA after this year, Shurmur’s done a great job with him in Minny so he knows the system. You could draft Barkley in Rd1, sign Keenum and focus on the line in rounds 2/3 or FA. Granted this means Eli is gone after this season, possibly to Jax to be back with Coughlin


Eli has 1 more season here barring a SB AND a paycut we have to think about the cap's health
I would trade down for more picks  
Alwaysblue22 : 1/18/2018 11:16 am : link
No one thinks Webb is any good but right now he is a year ahead of any QB in this years class. Brady was a sixth round pick..so do not judge by position in the draft. Lets fill the other holes and we can win now.
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