1. Josh Allen (Wyoming) Browns
2. Josh Rosen (UCLA) Giants
3. Bradley Chubb (NC State) Colts
4. Saquon Barkley (Penn St) Browns
5. Sam Darnold (USC) Broncos
He has Baker Mayfield going to the Redskins at #13
Very surprised he has Josh Allen going #1 overall.
Thoughts?
I think most of us would agree that throwing AND catching a football in Los Angeles, CA in November is a lot easier than throwing and catching a football in Cheyenne, WY in November.
To top it off, the offensive line he was playing with, the receivers he was playing with, both well below the talent level of most of his opponents. Watch some Allen tape, he is often under duress immediately almost as bad as Darnold vs Ohio State.
Finally, if you take a closer look at his 2017 game log, his two worst games were against Boise State and Oregon. Both big time programs, both Wyoming is completely out-gunned and out-matched at likely every position EXCEPT quarterback. If I throw those games out, and I analyze the numbers of the other games, these are the numbers:
59.8% pass completion. And you still have to look at the whole picture, level of competition, overmatched, nearly every week is a bad weather game.
None of this is to ignore Allen as a risky prospect, he is. But I think the criticism of the completion percentage in a bubble has to be looked at in context.
Here's the good with Allen: He clearly can make every throw, has probably the best arm in the class, he appears to throw an accurate ball, is a physical prototype, and can really move. I am very interested in how he'll do at the Senior Bowl, and I can guarantee that a lot of NFL teams are as well. He's a guy I would bet on because I see the talent. At #1 overall or #2? Not over Darnold. But over the other guys? Maybe, yeah.
If you look at him in terms of a possibility for the Giants, I think it's an ideal situation. You still have Eli, and you have Webb, who makes it easier to take a chance on a talent like Allen. I agree with others who say his ceiling is enormous...Aaron Rodgers-type ceiling.
A couple like her and people would be calling our OL the new hogs.
Link - ( New Window )
I have been saying that after the combines he will move into the top 3. I just hope the Browns decide to go with the safe pick like Rosen instead of Allen that needs a year under tutelage.
He has too far to go. You can't erase all the bad throws with the combine. But you are correct in that everyone may want Jackson after the combine...just not to be their quarterback.
But I would think Elway sees a little of himself at that
age coming out of Stanford, a big strapping strong armed
kid, who can run as well. I would like to see the Giants
draft him, just have a feeling they won't.
Who knows what the Browns will do, they have the No. 4 pick as well, they could trade out of the No. 1 pick, never sure with them.
I think most of us would agree that throwing AND catching a football in Los Angeles, CA in November is a lot easier than throwing and catching a football in Cheyenne, WY in November.
To top it off, the offensive line he was playing with, the receivers he was playing with, both well below the talent level of most of his opponents. Watch some Allen tape, he is often under duress immediately almost as bad as Darnold vs Ohio State.
Finally, if you take a closer look at his 2017 game log, his two worst games were against Boise State and Oregon. Both big time programs, both Wyoming is completely out-gunned and out-matched at likely every position EXCEPT quarterback. If I throw those games out, and I analyze the numbers of the other games, these are the numbers:
59.8% pass completion. And you still have to look at the whole picture, level of competition, overmatched, nearly every week is a bad weather game.
None of this is to ignore Allen as a risky prospect, he is. But I think the criticism of the completion percentage in a bubble has to be looked at in context.
Here's the good with Allen: He clearly can make every throw, has probably the best arm in the class, he appears to throw an accurate ball, is a physical prototype, and can really move. I am very interested in how he'll do at the Senior Bowl, and I can guarantee that a lot of NFL teams are as well. He's a guy I would bet on because I see the talent. At #1 overall or #2? Not over Darnold. But over the other guys? Maybe, yeah.
If you look at him in terms of a possibility for the Giants, I think it's an ideal situation. You still have Eli, and you have Webb, who makes it easier to take a chance on a talent like Allen. I agree with others who say his ceiling is enormous...Aaron Rodgers-type ceiling.
To put the talent around him in perspective, not one other player from that Wyoming team will sniff the NFL. Even his 2016 team was not that great (1 player chosen in the 5th rd RB Brian Hill and C Chase Roullier picked in the 6th and Tanner Gentry who was a UDFA) and he went into 2017 without the starting WR's and HB from 2016. For them to make a bowl game is all because of Allen.
Link - ( New Window )
Thank you, Dr.
I think most of us would agree that throwing AND catching a football in Los Angeles, CA in November is a lot easier than throwing and catching a football in Cheyenne, WY in November.
To top it off, the offensive line he was playing with, the receivers he was playing with, both well below the talent level of most of his opponents. Watch some Allen tape, he is often under duress immediately almost as bad as Darnold vs Ohio State.
Finally, if you take a closer look at his 2017 game log, his two worst games were against Boise State and Oregon. Both big time programs, both Wyoming is completely out-gunned and out-matched at likely every position EXCEPT quarterback. If I throw those games out, and I analyze the numbers of the other games, these are the numbers:
59.8% pass completion. And you still have to look at the whole picture, level of competition, overmatched, nearly every week is a bad weather game.
None of this is to ignore Allen as a risky prospect, he is. But I think the criticism of the completion percentage in a bubble has to be looked at in context.
Here's the good with Allen: He clearly can make every throw, has probably the best arm in the class, he appears to throw an accurate ball, is a physical prototype, and can really move. I am very interested in how he'll do at the Senior Bowl, and I can guarantee that a lot of NFL teams are as well. He's a guy I would bet on because I see the talent. At #1 overall or #2? Not over Darnold. But over the other guys? Maybe, yeah.
If you look at him in terms of a possibility for the Giants, I think it's an ideal situation. You still have Eli, and you have Webb, who makes it easier to take a chance on a talent like Allen. I agree with others who say his ceiling is enormous...Aaron Rodgers-type ceiling.
Allen competed 9 passes against Hawaii, possibly the worst division 1 team
And I've read where a some NFL personnel guys look at Allen and see the floor as Jake Locker, and the ceiling as Rothlesberger.
Oklahoma's Baker Mayfield and Wyoming's Josh Allen are two of the best, and most polarizing, QBs available in this year's draft. We'll get a chance to see them compete on the same stage next week when they participate in the Reese's Senior Bowl.
Which of these QBs do NFL teams prefer heading into the event? I reached out to five personnel executives and asked them for their pick. Here are their responses.
Executive 1: Baker Mayfield
"I'd take Mayfield. He's more accurate and more instinctive."
Executive 2: Mayfield
"I love Allen's potential but right now it's not close -- Mayfield has more poise and much better touch."
Executive 3: Josh Allen
"When you really study Allen, you realize how bad his supporting cast is. They couldn't even beat San Jose State when he was out of the lineup. He's going to be a great NFL quarterback and the teams that pass on him will regret it."
Executive 4: Mayfield
"This is pretty simple. Allen is bigger and has a better arm but Mayfield is better in just about every other area. The difference in accuracy is what jumps out the most."
Executive 5: Mayfield
"I know he has a different demeanor but I see a lot of Drew Brees in Baker Mayfield."
Summary: That's four votes for Mayfield and one for Allen.
Conclusion: I know some of these executives believe this is an obvious choice, but I find it difficult because these two guys are almost polar opposites. Allen has prototype size, arm strength and mobility while Mayfield is a creative wizard with outstanding ball placement and savvy. Link - ( New Window )
I would be very happy if Mayfield was a Giant. With that said I am willing to bet that they won't take him due to his size and the overblown off the field criticism. One thing to take into account is that you shouldn't believe much of what is said this year. There is so much smoke being blown. Nobody wants to reveal their hand so they will hype up a guy that they have no interest in taking.
LOL.
And I've read where a some NFL personnel guys look at Allen and see the floor as Jake Locker, and the ceiling as Rothlesberger.
That is true Allen has the lowest floor but highest upside. His floor is Locker but his upside is greater than Roethlisberger. I think his upside is a mix between Roethlisberger and Luck.
But I would think Elway sees a little of himself at that
age coming out of Stanford, a big strapping strong armed
kid, who can run as well. I would like to see the Giants
draft him, just have a feeling they won't.
Who knows what the Brohttp://corner.bigblueinteractive.com/index.phpwns will do, they have the No. 4 pick as well, they could tr
ade out of the No. 1 pick, never sure with them.
Maybe Denver will want to trade up? A perfect scenario if the Giants decide to not go with a QB as they could likely choose between Fitz and Nelson. They would get the 5th pick in rounds 2 and 3 plus next years #1.
They could use the 2019 pick to trade up next year if Webb and Eli don't work out.
Maybe Denver will want to trade up? A perfect scenario if the Giants decide to not go with a QB as they could likely choose between Fitz and Nelson. They would get the 5th pick in rounds 2 and 3 plus next years #1.
They could use the 2019 pick to trade up next year if Webb and Eli don't work out.
If they aren't going to take a QB at 2 I hope they do this. Adding another 1st round pick next season will give the Giants the ammunition needed to trade up for a QB next season. They could also luck out like the Browns did this year if the Broncos have another poor season.
And I've read where a some NFL personnel guys look at Allen and see the floor as Jake Locker, and the ceiling as Rothlesberger.
at least she would solve our left tackle problem
Just because Wentz was a stud at a smaller school, doesn't mean that each time a small school qb that excels against weaker competition appears on the radar that he will translate into the next best NFL stud.
My impression of him against Oregon was meh. Very meh. If the browns want him, let them take him. I see him as late 2nd at best, Id take Mayfield over him in a cold dead minute.
I get a bounty this year and build the infrastructure (line) for success. Eli can play another year or two and then hand the reins off to Davis Webb all going well. There were a lot of people high on Webb within the org. Many of them are gone now but it gives a year for others to analyze him. If the Giants have a disaster of a year or the new staff isn't as high on Webb as others, we can shoot for QB next year.
2 things to consider.
- If we have a serviceable line, I think we have some excellent talent at receiver (wide/tight) where we shouldn't need an excellent quarterback to be successful. (Looking current to 5 years out).
- I do have some concerns on the replacement to Eli. It takes a special temperament to succeed at QB in NY and also to replace a legend.
I have to give USC credit, it's amazing how easy the Spread makes it on QBs. Always Shotgun - everything's a screen, fake or catch N throw. If all else fails pull it down and run. You're sitting there waiting for him to show the passing skills he'll need in the NFL and it just never happens - it's just Spread. I do credit Darnold for having great ball placement.
It's a great college O - big yards and points, guys running wide open, college D's aren't good enough to stop it - but it does little to prepare you for the NFL. Allen's completion % is low, but he's deadly accurate w/his outside throws from the pocket. Frozen ropes to the correct shoulder. He is running an NFL style offense and going through reads. (Not just catching & throwing within a gimmick offense.) What I saw watching his full games was the pocket routinely breaking down on him before he had time to go through his reads, which forces him to scramble. I'm talking jailbreak at the snap. Allen tried to do too much extending plays. That's where the low completion % comes from.
Build-wise, Allen is noticeably bigger than the other QBs.
He isn't quite as good as Big Ben coming out (IMO) but he's got a similar upside and he may be the most complete package QB.
I'm very much on the Webb bandwagon - I think he's got the goods to be an NFL starter. I'd take Barkley, Chubb or Nelson. But if the Giants are going QB - give me Allen. He's a gamble but so are the other guys.
And how will they affect his draft status/future?
UCLA 2002
Possible. He also may have another injury that was not reported on very much.
SinnerBoy
Heard that prospective teams will be wanting to closely examine his repaired shoulder.
Possible. He also may have another injury that was not reported on very much.
What one was that? His knee?
UCLA2002
Upper body injury is all I'll say and it's not the shoulder
I think that's true of any draft really. There is a lot of talent at QB in this draft, but they need to pick the right one.
When Eli wss drafted it turned out that Rivers, Ben, and Eli were all good pros, at the time many thought Rivers wouldn't succeed due to his throwing mechanics, and there were questions about Ben's level of competition. Imo we got the best of the three, but any one would have been a good pick.
Hopefully this time it turns put the same.
Darnold has all the tools.
Many have said that Rosen is the best pure passer in years, but has health concerns.
I'm not sure I agree with your assessment of the situation.
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Put a spin on it that’s a little different from others, so that he can act like he’s smarter than everyone else. If the teams don’t go the way he projects, he’ll act mad like he knew better. And then he moves on and does it again the next year, without anyone really analyzing how often he was wrong. Of course, he has no skin in the game so no one really cares. In the immortal words of one GM years ago, “Who the fuck is Mel Kiper?”.
You're absolutely right. Mel bases his draft grades on addressing team needs. If the team doesn't take the player or position he predicts then he gives them a low grade. You would think that a "draft expert" would have realized by now that it is a huge mistake to draft for need.
I could almost see this happening if they like all three of the QBs. Take Barkley and wait to see which QB is there at 4.
For comparison, Carson Wentz was a 64% passer at NDSU, and before you say “but it was FCS!”, NDSU would compete in the Mountain West.
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Look, he played 6 of his 11 games in an outdoor stadium in WYOMING. Frigid, windy, WYOMING. Throw a couple of his other road games in Colorado Springs (@ Air Force) in November, two road games in Boise, Idaho (@ Boise State and in his bowl game, in late October and late December, respectively), that is a distinct weather disadvantage that other quarterbacks simply do not have to endure.
I think most of us would agree that throwing AND catching a football in Los Angeles, CA in November is a lot easier than throwing and catching a football in Cheyenne, WY in November.
To top it off, the offensive line he was playing with, the receivers he was playing with, both well below the talent level of most of his opponents. Watch some Allen tape, he is often under duress immediately almost as bad as Darnold vs Ohio State.
Finally, if you take a closer look at his 2017 game log, his two worst games were against Boise State and Oregon. Both big time programs, both Wyoming is completely out-gunned and out-matched at likely every position EXCEPT quarterback. If I throw those games out, and I analyze the numbers of the other games, these are the numbers:
59.8% pass completion. And you still have to look at the whole picture, level of competition, overmatched, nearly every week is a bad weather game.
None of this is to ignore Allen as a risky prospect, he is. But I think the criticism of the completion percentage in a bubble has to be looked at in context.
Here's the good with Allen: He clearly can make every throw, has probably the best arm in the class, he appears to throw an accurate ball, is a physical prototype, and can really move. I am very interested in how he'll do at the Senior Bowl, and I can guarantee that a lot of NFL teams are as well. He's a guy I would bet on because I see the talent. At #1 overall or #2? Not over Darnold. But over the other guys? Maybe, yeah.
If you look at him in terms of a possibility for the Giants, I think it's an ideal situation. You still have Eli, and you have Webb, who makes it easier to take a chance on a talent like Allen. I agree with others who say his ceiling is enormous...Aaron Rodgers-type ceiling.
Allen competed 9 passes against Hawaii, possibly the worst division 1 team
See, this is why you really need to examine the "tape" to see what happened. This is that game:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tz3VtxCSMs4
There were SIX catchable passes in that game that were not caught. He could've easily been 15-19 passing in that game.
Out of the 6 catchable passes, 2 were great passes that went right through the receiver's hands, 2 were great passes that hit them right in the chest and they were dropped, and 2 were not really great throws but were catchable. So he should've AT LEAST been 13-19 passing in that game...68.4%, instead, he was at 47.3% passing.
Out of the incompletions that were not catchable (all 4 of them), one was tipped at the line, a great play by the DE, one was a hail mary at the end of the half (flicked his wrist and the ball went 65 yards in the air), one he sailed out of bounds, possibly on purpose as the coverage was good, and one was the worst throw he made that day... a pass late and outside that should've resulted in a pick six, that the corner dropped.
But if you look at the deep hitches on the far-sideline, the hail mary he threw, the end of the game roll out for the TD, those are the throws that shows me he can play in the NFL.
Point is, you can't make a conclusion just on the stats. 9-19 looks bad, it does. But he wasn't a 9-19 QB in that game, he was much better than that.
I think most of us would agree that throwing AND catching a football in Los Angeles, CA in November is a lot easier than throwing and catching a football in Cheyenne, WY in November.
To top it off, the offensive line he was playing with, the receivers he was playing with, both well below the talent level of most of his opponents. Watch some Allen tape, he is often under duress immediately almost as bad as Darnold vs Ohio State.
Finally, if you take a closer look at his 2017 game log, his two worst games were against Boise State and Oregon. Both big time programs, both Wyoming is completely out-gunned and out-matched at likely every position EXCEPT quarterback. If I throw those games out, and I analyze the numbers of the other games, these are the numbers:
Carson Wentz played his college games out doors in N Dakota. 64% completion to 56%. And if you’re looking at game logs, don’t forget Allen’s performance against the 133rd ranked defense of Hawaii - 9 of 19 for 94 yards. Granted, it was in Wyoming, but it was in September, so I doubt weather was a factor (HI’s QB was 29-40 for 280 yards against a much better WY defense).
He is a special talent, but he is also a project. While I would argue that he’s a better bet than Webb, there is still a bust factor.
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Look, he played 6 of his 11 games in an outdoor stadium in WYOMING. Frigid, windy, WYOMING. Throw a couple of his other road games in Colorado Springs (@ Air Force) in November, two road games in Boise, Idaho (@ Boise State and in his bowl game, in late October and late December, respectively), that is a distinct weather disadvantage that other quarterbacks simply do not have to endure.
I think most of us would agree that throwing AND catching a football in Los Angeles, CA in November is a lot easier than throwing and catching a football in Cheyenne, WY in November.
To top it off, the offensive line he was playing with, the receivers he was playing with, both well below the talent level of most of his opponents. Watch some Allen tape, he is often under duress immediately almost as bad as Darnold vs Ohio State.
Finally, if you take a closer look at his 2017 game log, his two worst games were against Boise State and Oregon. Both big time programs, both Wyoming is completely out-gunned and out-matched at likely every position EXCEPT quarterback. If I throw those games out, and I analyze the numbers of the other games, these are the numbers:
Carson Wentz played his college games out doors in N Dakota. 64% completion to 56%. And if you’re looking at game logs, don’t forget Allen’s performance against the 133rd ranked defense of Hawaii - 9 of 19 for 94 yards. Granted, it was in Wyoming, but it was in September, so I doubt weather was a factor (HI’s QB was 29-40 for 280 yards against a much better WY defense).
He is a special talent, but he is also a project. While I would argue that he’s a better bet than Webb, there is still a bust factor.
Please see my above post regarding the HI game. I'm also not one that puts Allen on the level of Wentz as a prospect. I do think Allen has more risk than Wentz as I thought Wentz was pretty pro-ready and he had everything. But you also have to understand that Wentz had a much better team around him than Allen. Much better, not even close.
Josh Rosen played that day in Stanford, CA. It was 65 degrees and sunny. ;)
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In comment 13795111 allstarjim said:
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Look, he played 6 of his 11 games in an outdoor stadium in WYOMING. Frigid, windy, WYOMING. Throw a couple of his other road games in Colorado Springs (@ Air Force) in November, two road games in Boise, Idaho (@ Boise State and in his bowl game, in late October and late December, respectively), that is a distinct weather disadvantage that other quarterbacks simply do not have to endure.
I think most of us would agree that throwing AND catching a football in Los Angeles, CA in November is a lot easier than throwing and catching a football in Cheyenne, WY in November.
To top it off, the offensive line he was playing with, the receivers he was playing with, both well below the talent level of most of his opponents. Watch some Allen tape, he is often under duress immediately almost as bad as Darnold vs Ohio State.
Finally, if you take a closer look at his 2017 game log, his two worst games were against Boise State and Oregon. Both big time programs, both Wyoming is completely out-gunned and out-matched at likely every position EXCEPT quarterback. If I throw those games out, and I analyze the numbers of the other games, these are the numbers:
59.8% pass completion. And you still have to look at the whole picture, level of competition, overmatched, nearly every week is a bad weather game.
None of this is to ignore Allen as a risky prospect, he is. But I think the criticism of the completion percentage in a bubble has to be looked at in context.
Here's the good with Allen: He clearly can make every throw, has probably the best arm in the class, he appears to throw an accurate ball, is a physical prototype, and can really move. I am very interested in how he'll do at the Senior Bowl, and I can guarantee that a lot of NFL teams are as well. He's a guy I would bet on because I see the talent. At #1 overall or #2? Not over Darnold. But over the other guys? Maybe, yeah.
If you look at him in terms of a possibility for the Giants, I think it's an ideal situation. You still have Eli, and you have Webb, who makes it easier to take a chance on a talent like Allen. I agree with others who say his ceiling is enormous...Aaron Rodgers-type ceiling.
Allen competed 9 passes against Hawaii, possibly the worst division 1 team
See, this is why you really need to examine the "tape" to see what happened. This is that game:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tz3VtxCSMs4
There were SIX catchable passes in that game that were not caught. He could've easily been 15-19 passing in that game.
Out of the 6 catchable passes, 2 were great passes that went right through the receiver's hands, 2 were great passes that hit them right in the chest and they were dropped, and 2 were not really great throws but were catchable. So he should've AT LEAST been 13-19 passing in that game...68.4%, instead, he was at 47.3% passing.
Out of the incompletions that were not catchable (all 4 of them), one was tipped at the line, a great play by the DE, one was a hail mary at the end of the half (flicked his wrist and the ball went 65 yards in the air), one he sailed out of bounds, possibly on purpose as the coverage was good, and one was the worst throw he made that day... a pass late and outside that should've resulted in a pick six, that the corner dropped.
But if you look at the deep hitches on the far-sideline, the hail mary he threw, the end of the game roll out for the TD, those are the throws that shows me he can play in the NFL.
Point is, you can't make a conclusion just on the stats. 9-19 looks bad, it does. But he wasn't a 9-19 QB in that game, he was much better than that.
And if we counted drops Jacksons competiton % would be in the 70%s. Allen gets excuses made for him, while other QBs don't. It's a weird dynamic
You mean like they did all those years after they drafted RG3?
I know...that RG3 is a nightmare. Can't wait till he retires.
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would be receiving some substantial offers for their picks with Rosen & Darnold falling
Another likely scenario: Giants draft Darnold, but continue to receive substantial offers. If a player they love is still on the board when one of those teams is on the clock, I could see them doing something like the opposite of the Eli trade: swap one QB prospect for a bunch of picks and still get a QB.
I think Darnold will be their #1 prospect, but your point is well made.