1. Josh Allen (Wyoming) Browns
2. Josh Rosen (UCLA) Giants
3. Bradley Chubb (NC State) Colts
4. Saquon Barkley (Penn St) Browns
5. Sam Darnold (USC) Broncos
He has Baker Mayfield going to the Redskins at #13
Very surprised he has Josh Allen going #1 overall.
Thoughts?
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In comment 13795160 ajr2456 said:
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In comment 13795111 allstarjim said:
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Look, he played 6 of his 11 games in an outdoor stadium in WYOMING. Frigid, windy, WYOMING. Throw a couple of his other road games in Colorado Springs (@ Air Force) in November, two road games in Boise, Idaho (@ Boise State and in his bowl game, in late October and late December, respectively), that is a distinct weather disadvantage that other quarterbacks simply do not have to endure.
I think most of us would agree that throwing AND catching a football in Los Angeles, CA in November is a lot easier than throwing and catching a football in Cheyenne, WY in November.
To top it off, the offensive line he was playing with, the receivers he was playing with, both well below the talent level of most of his opponents. Watch some Allen tape, he is often under duress immediately almost as bad as Darnold vs Ohio State.
Finally, if you take a closer look at his 2017 game log, his two worst games were against Boise State and Oregon. Both big time programs, both Wyoming is completely out-gunned and out-matched at likely every position EXCEPT quarterback. If I throw those games out, and I analyze the numbers of the other games, these are the numbers:
59.8% pass completion. And you still have to look at the whole picture, level of competition, overmatched, nearly every week is a bad weather game.
None of this is to ignore Allen as a risky prospect, he is. But I think the criticism of the completion percentage in a bubble has to be looked at in context.
Here's the good with Allen: He clearly can make every throw, has probably the best arm in the class, he appears to throw an accurate ball, is a physical prototype, and can really move. I am very interested in how he'll do at the Senior Bowl, and I can guarantee that a lot of NFL teams are as well. He's a guy I would bet on because I see the talent. At #1 overall or #2? Not over Darnold. But over the other guys? Maybe, yeah.
If you look at him in terms of a possibility for the Giants, I think it's an ideal situation. You still have Eli, and you have Webb, who makes it easier to take a chance on a talent like Allen. I agree with others who say his ceiling is enormous...Aaron Rodgers-type ceiling.
Allen competed 9 passes against Hawaii, possibly the worst division 1 team
See, this is why you really need to examine the "tape" to see what happened. This is that game:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tz3VtxCSMs4
There were SIX catchable passes in that game that were not caught. He could've easily been 15-19 passing in that game.
Out of the 6 catchable passes, 2 were great passes that went right through the receiver's hands, 2 were great passes that hit them right in the chest and they were dropped, and 2 were not really great throws but were catchable. So he should've AT LEAST been 13-19 passing in that game...68.4%, instead, he was at 47.3% passing.
Out of the incompletions that were not catchable (all 4 of them), one was tipped at the line, a great play by the DE, one was a hail mary at the end of the half (flicked his wrist and the ball went 65 yards in the air), one he sailed out of bounds, possibly on purpose as the coverage was good, and one was the worst throw he made that day... a pass late and outside that should've resulted in a pick six, that the corner dropped.
But if you look at the deep hitches on the far-sideline, the hail mary he threw, the end of the game roll out for the TD, those are the throws that shows me he can play in the NFL.
Point is, you can't make a conclusion just on the stats. 9-19 looks bad, it does. But he wasn't a 9-19 QB in that game, he was much better than that.
And if we counted drops Jacksons competiton % would be in the 70%s. Allen gets excuses made for him, while other QBs don't. It's a weird dynamic
Perhaps. I promise you Allen has had a lot more drops as a percentage of his throws than Jackson.
I'm not saying Allen is this elite, can't miss prospect. I'm saying there are reasons his numbers aren't there with the other top QBs that are separate from his performance and ability.
Go check out Jackson's last 2 bowl games (vs. LSU and Miss St.) and let me know if you still want him as your QB.
He's a good college QB, potentially a developmental NFL QB, but no way I'd take that guy in either the 1st or 2nd rounds.
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Jackson is more poised and polished a prospect than Allen is. Link - ( New Window )
Go check out Jackson's last 2 bowl games (vs. LSU and Miss St.) and let me know if you still want him as your QB.
He's a good college QB, potentially a developmental NFL QB, but no way I'd take that guy in either the 1st or 2nd rounds.
Totally agree.
Ah, no they won't. Well maybe after Darnold, Rosen, Allen and Mayfield are gone.
I’ve heard it all LOL
“The thing that’s amazing to me, is that after all of high school he’s not accurate, and now all of a sudden you’re special and you’re going to make him accurate? And then after college he’s not accurate, and you’re special and you’re going to make him accurate? I just haven’t seen that happen. I’ve seen guys improve, but they don’t all of a sudden become accurate.”
If you look at the success rate of college QBs with low completion %, they back that quote up. I think you are more likely to teach a short Baker Mayfield how to find throwing lanes than the prototypical Josh Allen how to be accurate in NFL windows. It's a trap coaches and talent evaluators fall into all of the time.
As for the posters here who say USC runs the spread offense. Not really. Darnold rarely runs the ball. he ran for a whopping 82 years on the season. The spread offense quarterbacks gain that in one game.
from what i have read, questionable if rosen does that regardless of the pretty ball. i want allen or darnold for the giants, or barkley. otherwise, trade down [a few times] and take chubb or best OT so we have extra 2 and/or 3s.
we will know much more after all the evals.
It’s hard to argue the arm talent Allen has. I mean go look at the vids. That dude has Jeff George type arm talent. Not sure what he willl be but he looks to have a stronger arm than any one in the league right now
I’ve heard it all LOL
Funny, but I'll tell ya, when I look at him he doesn't have a QB body - or so it appears.
Almost looks like he should be a wrestler.
But obviously being a QB in the NFL is a lot more than physical ability. The accuracy issues (while I think overblown after watching most of his games) are still a legitimate concern for any team considering him, and, maybe most importantly, it's difficult to project his ability to read NFL defenses and make adjustments presnap (but that issue is true of pretty much every collegiate QB)
Daniel Jeremiah was on the Rich Eisen show recently and said Allen has more upside than Wentz (which blew Eisens mind) but is more raw. I think that's pretty fair and accurate. I'm more than willing to gamble (even with the number 2 pick) on that type of greatness, especially after watching most of his full game clips online (not just highlights) and not really seeing the huge accuracy concerns ( I think he can definitely clean stuff up tho) that most people point to when criticizing him.
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However, I am praying to the football gods that Darnold is available at the 2 slot. And then we take him. The combination of poise, durable body, underrated arm, and football junkie make him the better pick than Rosen. It’s worth the risk that Rosen will break down more, or have greater outside interests other than football, than Sam. So take the safer, surer result...
If Darnold is taken, and Rosen is there at #2, my other prayer to the football gods is that we trade out of that spot for someone who really wants Risen, and we move down to eventually draft the Freak - Josh Allen. And maybe he gets more tutoring time under a Manning/veteran type...
Allen is kind of the JPP of quarterbacks
Also, he seems to take off and run too much (not to extend the play but to get yards), and to me, he almost looks TOO tall to be doing that. He'll get killed at the next level.
I'm sure he's a good prospect, but if we're talking about "a higher ceiling" than the other two, I personally don't see that. And his floor is lower.
Mayfield is gonna be a Jet
I'd be quite ok with that. Jets games would be interesting.
Eli Manning had garbage around him back at ole miss. He still produced. Big Ben was a talented freaky athlete who played for a small school. He put up monster numbers.
Josh Allen could split the atom with 80 yard bombs at the combine for all I care. He still didn't put up wow numbers in college. Can't hide that.
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