for display only
Big Blue Interactive The Corner Forum  
Back to the Corner

Archived Thread

49ers and Garoppolo have agreed to a five-year, $137.5M

OdellBeckhamJr : 2/8/2018 1:34 pm
pretty good for 8td/5int
link - ( New Window )
Pages: 1 2 3 <<Prev | Show All |  Next>>
RE: I'd counter the  
section125 : 2/8/2018 2:40 pm : link
In comment 13826615 Britt in VA said:
Quote:
with a counterpoint of "if you already have a franchise QB, that has 2 or so years left in him, this is why you wait and put the other pieces in place instead."

The reasoning is this:

1. What you're paying your experienced veteran QB in the final years of his deal now looks like a bargain compared to that deal.

2. You're not wasting any of the valuable five year rookie window years on your QB sitting on the bench.

3. You have the opportunity to build the team first, then have something to fall back on (solid running game, oline, and defense) to help you win games while the rookie QB is getting acclimated.


Maybe 2 years. Meanwhile, your future is on the payroll if you chose now. Of course you could wait for 2 drafts more and with the 20th + pick what do you get..?
RE: RE: I'm just saying....  
Britt in VA : 2/8/2018 2:41 pm : link
In comment 13826761 gidiefor said:
Quote:
In comment 13826734 Britt in VA said:


Quote:


look at some of these guys getting second contracts like this....

Garrapolo: 2nd Round
Cousins: 4th Round
Wilson: 3rd Round

Now look at all the top ten QB's, and what they're getting on their second contracts, if they're getting one.

I don't think true "Franchise QB's" are found only in the Top 10 anymore. I think they're found all over the draft.

In fact, after watching the Eagles, I'm starting to wonder... What's more important? The QB? Or the system? Did Nick Foles look any worse than Carson Wentz?

I think things are changing. I'm starting to think the model of the Franchise QB is becoming outdated, or at the very least, it's cyclical and returning to strong running games and good defense. The only true, legit franchise QB that I've seen in the past five years has been Luck. But they're not really making em like that anymore.

It gives me pause on QB's at 2.



Britt. The lower drafted QBs are the exception. Not the rule. Brady is an outlier. The guy you love so much now was the first pick in the draft 14 years ago. Two Qbs from the first round of that draft have made multiple Superbowl appearances. The point being that if you have a conviction you go with it. Convention says if the qb prospects are blue chip and you have a shot , you take it.


A lot has changed in 14 years. Just look at all of the QB's drafted since Luck in 2012.
RE: .  
MetsAreBack : 2/8/2018 2:46 pm : link
In comment 13826763 arcarsenal said:
Quote:
It doesn't matter where you find the QB - but their talent level certainly matters.

I'm surprised so many people are being fooled by Nick Foles again after 2013.


Or pretending the only reason Nick Foles got a shot to play hero was because the #2 overall pick in the draft two years ago played at a MVP level to get Philly the #1 NFC seed in the first place.

Can a team draft Russell Wilson, Tom Brady or Dak Prescott in the later rounds and reap the rewards for a while ? Sure.

Do those rounds produce quality QB play more often or just as often as the first round? Not a fucking chance. At the end of the day, you're just playing the odds.

Consider that this year's playoff fold:
1. Had 3 overall #1 picks in the draft (Cam, Goff, A Smith)
2. Had another 4 top 3 picks in the draft (Bortles, Wentz - got them there, Mariota, Ryan)
3. Another 1st round pick - Ben
4. Two HoF QBs (Brady, Brees - who was the first pick of the 2nd round)
5. Just two QBs without high pedigree - Keenum, who was exposed badly in the playoffs (and by the way, the Vikings started their season with a former #1 overall pick in the draft, Sam Bradford, but he got hurt in week 2) ... and Tyrod Taylor
He sure as hell looks like the real deal  
Ron from Ninerland : 2/8/2018 2:49 pm : link
He's a polished accurate passer. That fact that he got this way after only 7 NFL starts, all of which he won speaks volumes.
RE: RE: .  
arcarsenal : 2/8/2018 3:01 pm : link
In comment 13826835 MetsAreBack said:
Quote:
In comment 13826763 arcarsenal said:


Quote:


It doesn't matter where you find the QB - but their talent level certainly matters.

I'm surprised so many people are being fooled by Nick Foles again after 2013.



Or pretending the only reason Nick Foles got a shot to play hero was because the #2 overall pick in the draft two years ago played at a MVP level to get Philly the #1 NFC seed in the first place.

Can a team draft Russell Wilson, Tom Brady or Dak Prescott in the later rounds and reap the rewards for a while ? Sure.

Do those rounds produce quality QB play more often or just as often as the first round? Not a fucking chance. At the end of the day, you're just playing the odds.

Consider that this year's playoff fold:
1. Had 3 overall #1 picks in the draft (Cam, Goff, A Smith)
2. Had another 4 top 3 picks in the draft (Bortles, Wentz - got them there, Mariota, Ryan)
3. Another 1st round pick - Ben
4. Two HoF QBs (Brady, Brees - who was the first pick of the 2nd round)
5. Just two QBs without high pedigree - Keenum, who was exposed badly in the playoffs (and by the way, the Vikings started their season with a former #1 overall pick in the draft, Sam Bradford, but he got hurt in week 2) ... and Tyrod Taylor


People keep trying to reinvent the wheel every time something slightly anomalous happens in this league.

Strong QB play is always, always, always going to be a major factor in a team's success. No matter how hard people try to devalue the position or turn it into a carousel, this is always going to ring true.
RE: RE: .  
lax counsel : 2/8/2018 3:05 pm : link
In comment 13826835 MetsAreBack said:
Quote:
In comment 13826763 arcarsenal said:


Quote:


It doesn't matter where you find the QB - but their talent level certainly matters.

I'm surprised so many people are being fooled by Nick Foles again after 2013.



Or pretending the only reason Nick Foles got a shot to play hero was because the #2 overall pick in the draft two years ago played at a MVP level to get Philly the #1 NFC seed in the first place.

Can a team draft Russell Wilson, Tom Brady or Dak Prescott in the later rounds and reap the rewards for a while ? Sure.

Do those rounds produce quality QB play more often or just as often as the first round? Not a fucking chance. At the end of the day, you're just playing the odds.

Consider that this year's playoff fold:
1. Had 3 overall #1 picks in the draft (Cam, Goff, A Smith)
2. Had another 4 top 3 picks in the draft (Bortles, Wentz - got them there, Mariota, Ryan)
3. Another 1st round pick - Ben
4. Two HoF QBs (Brady, Brees - who was the first pick of the 2nd round)
5. Just two QBs without high pedigree - Keenum, who was exposed badly in the playoffs (and by the way, the Vikings started their season with a former #1 overall pick in the draft, Sam Bradford, but he got hurt in week 2) ... and Tyrod Taylor


Both of you are on point here. Especially with Foles, this guy played lights out for two games- granted two of the biggest games. But was extremely pedestrian the remainder of the season. It's not a stretch to say that Foles never even has a shot to do that if Wentz (the second pick) wasn't incredible all season long.

It's not impossible to find a quality qb in the later rounds, but percentages just say it's a lot harder. There are two franchise qbs in this draft, Giants have a shot at 1. Take him.
You guys can argue until you're big blue in the face...  
Milton : 2/8/2018 3:10 pm : link
But this isn't a question of strategy/philosophy, it's a question of evaluation. If your starting QB in 37-years old, you don't pass on a QB with a franchise quality grade. Pardon my arrogance, but it's simply not a debatable point.

So the question is really only whether or not Darnold and/or Rosen are worthy of a franchise QB grade. The consensus among draftniks as of now is that they are. More info will come down the pike as we go through the draft process, but the momentum is all positive.
Ok I understand Jimmy G  
NikkiMac : 2/8/2018 3:19 pm : link
Has some limited experience,talent wise is he better or is he any better mechanically than Davis Webb?
RE: I'd counter the  
WillVAB : 2/8/2018 3:20 pm : link
In comment 13826615 Britt in VA said:
Quote:
with a counterpoint of "if you already have a franchise QB, that has 2 or so years left in him, this is why you wait and put the other pieces in place instead."

The reasoning is this:

1. What you're paying your experienced veteran QB in the final years of his deal now looks like a bargain compared to that deal.

2. You're not wasting any of the valuable five year rookie window years on your QB sitting on the bench.

3. You have the opportunity to build the team first, then have something to fall back on (solid running game, oline, and defense) to help you win games while the rookie QB is getting acclimated.


Agree.

I’d also add that the difference in QB play between all of the young QBs in the league is marginal. Considering the fact that Foles just won a SB, I don’t think the position is as important as it used to be.
What are the Eagles....  
BillKo : 2/8/2018 3:21 pm : link
...going to have to give Wentz (provided he comes back all healthy)?........

Wow.
RE: Ok I understand Jimmy G  
Ten Ton Hammer : 2/8/2018 3:23 pm : link
In comment 13826904 NikkiMac said:
Quote:
Has some limited experience,talent wise is he better or is he any better mechanically than Davis Webb?


He's 7-0 with a 99 QB rating as an NFL starter vs. a kid who didn't even get to dress up for more than 1 game.
The bottom line is that there are various ways to win  
Essex : 2/8/2018 3:23 pm : link
Philly just outschemed everyone this year. The coaching staff was incredible. Carson Wentz is a good qb, but he was not being asked to do anything Nick Foles wasn't. There offense is really simply for the qb once you master the RPO. The bottom line was that you could have probably plugged 20 qbs into Philly this year and gotten similar results. I wouldn't pay Carson Wentz 137.5 and I wouldn't pay Jimmy G that. The QBs I would pay that money are the QBs that can win you games by themselves. Rodgers and Brady are the only two in the NFL that fits that bill. Peyton Manning also did. Eli and Roethlisberger to a lesser extent. My issue with putting Eli in that group is that he needs protection, so although he can sling the ball all over the place (best in the intermediate range), he needs some help, whereas Brady and Rodger and Peyton can just get rid of it and deliver it well to just about anybody under any kind of pressure.
If you're just not going to pay market rate for a QB  
Ten Ton Hammer : 2/8/2018 3:25 pm : link
then be prepared to draft a QB every 5 years, and good luck with that as a philosophy.
Oh stop already  
MetsAreBack : 2/8/2018 3:30 pm : link
RPO is not some new phenominon that only the Eagles knew about. You cant just plug any QB into it and have success either.

Foles played well in two games, after stinking in his prior 3. He also loses to the Falcons if they dont botch one of the easier interceptions you'll ever see at the end of the first half.

Wentz is the #2 overall pick in the 2016 draft. He's really good. He got them in the playoffs in the first place.
These are all of the first round QB's since 2012  
Britt in VA : 2/8/2018 3:30 pm : link
The reason I chose 2012 is because, IMO, Andrew Luck was the last "true", can't miss franchise QB to come out:

Andrew Luck (1 overall)
Griffin III (2 overall)
Ryan Tannehill (8 overall)
Brandon Weeden (22 overall)
EJ Manual (16 overall)
Blake Bortles (3 overall)
Manziel (22 overall)
Bridgewater (32 overall)
Winston (1 overall)
Mariota (2 overall)
Goff (1 overall)
Wentz (2 overall)
Paxton Lynch (26 overall)

13 QB's taken in the first round, only 2 sure things. Other than Luck or Wentz, which one do you look back on and say they were worth it?

Conversely, let's see other QB's drafted in rounds 2-4 since 2012, and see if there are more or less hits:

Brock Osweiler (2nd Round)
Russell Wilson (3rd Round)
Nick Foles (3rd Round)
Kirk Cousins (4th Round)
Geno Smith (2nd Round)
Mike Glennon (3rd Round)
Matt Barkley (4th Round)
Ryan Nassib (4th Round)
Tyler Wilson (4th Round)
Landry Jones (4th Round)
Derek Carr (2nd Round)
Jimmy Garrapolo (2nd Round)
Logan Thomas (4th Round)
Garret Grayson (3rd Round)
Sean Mannion (3rd Round)
Bryce Petty (4th Round)
Christian Hackenburg (2nd Round)
Jacoby Brissett (3rd Round)
Cody Kessler (3rd Round)
Connor Cook (4th Round)
Dak Prescott (4th Round)
Cardale Jones (4th Round)
DeShone Kizer (2nd Round)
Davis Webb (3rd Round)
CJ Beathard (3rd Round)
Josh Dobbs (4th Round)

Some solid QB's in there. Are we really seeing a great disparity in talent level of the 1st round QB's vs. rounds 2-4 since 2012? I'm not sure these later round guys are an outlier, anymore. At least not in recent draft history.
RE: If you're just not going to pay market rate for a QB  
Essex : 2/8/2018 3:34 pm : link
In comment 13826921 Ten Ton Hammer said:
Quote:
then be prepared to draft a QB every 5 years, and good luck with that as a philosophy.

From 2010 to 2012, the Packers never paid Rodgers more than 8.5 million, they won the Super Bowl in 2010 and were 15-1 the next year because you could afford to surround him with talent. Russell Wilson under the rookie deal got Seattle to two Super Bowls, they haven't been close since they paid him and are now fading. The Eagles won with a 6.5 million qb. BRady is obscenely underpaid for his production and even then NE has a hard time fielding a great team outside of him. Look at the Steelers, they haven't won a Super Bowl since Roethlisberger's Rookie Contract expired in 2008 and have only been to one since then in 2010. Good luck with paying guys who played 7 games 137.5 million. It almost makes no sense. Cam Newtown 15-1 under the rookie contract, they had to get rid of Norman. The list can go on and on.

Again, I am not saying don't pay a qb who you draft as a franchise qb a big second contract if it merits that, but I am saying it is a lot easier to win when the cap number is manageable. The time to win championships is in your qbs first contract in the modern NFL
Come on  
pjcas18 : 2/8/2018 3:35 pm : link
man, Goff is pretty close to a sure thing.

As a 2nd year QB he had 62% completion %, 3800 yards, and 28 TD's to 7 picks.

and no DeShaun Watson on your list?

I'd take him over any QB in the your 2nd round or later list.

has there been  
jestersdead : 2/8/2018 3:35 pm : link
any word about guaranteed money?
So Carr, Garapolo, Carr, Dak and Foles  
MetsAreBack : 2/8/2018 3:37 pm : link
are sure things


...but Mariota (just made playoffs), Bortles (just made playoffs, hung with Pitt and NE to AFC title game), Winston, Goff (just made playoffs for best offense in NFL) and Tannehill are not?

I thought we were having a serious conversation.
RE: Oh stop already  
Essex : 2/8/2018 3:37 pm : link
In comment 13826928 MetsAreBack said:
Quote:
RPO is not some new phenominon that only the Eagles knew about. You cant just plug any QB into it and have success either.

Foles played well in two games, after stinking in his prior 3. He also loses to the Falcons if they dont botch one of the easier interceptions you'll ever see at the end of the first half.

Wentz is the #2 overall pick in the 2016 draft. He's really good. He got them in the playoffs in the first place.


you clearly have not watched many Eagles games. Foles didn't stink versus us. He put up 34 points (there might have been a pick six if remember correctly so it could be 27). He stank against the raiders on a cold night and played three series against the Cowboys. And, if you think the RPO was not part of Wentz's success I don't know what to tell you. Wentz completion percentage was 60%, that was not very good. His efficiency in the red zone was what drove his numbers.
He did look  
PaulN : 2/8/2018 3:38 pm : link
Excellent, but that is some risk to take on a player that performed in 6 games, did it occur to them that teams may make some adjustments? It does show you just how valuable a young franchise QB is though.
RE: These are all of the first round QB's since 2012  
Emil : 2/8/2018 3:40 pm : link
In comment 13826929 Britt in VA said:
Quote:
The reason I chose 2012 is because, IMO, Andrew Luck was the last "true", can't miss franchise QB to come out:

Andrew Luck (1 overall)
Griffin III (2 overall)
Ryan Tannehill (8 overall)
Brandon Weeden (22 overall)
EJ Manual (16 overall)
Blake Bortles (3 overall)
Manziel (22 overall)
Bridgewater (32 overall)
Winston (1 overall)
Mariota (2 overall)
Goff (1 overall)
Wentz (2 overall)
Paxton Lynch (26 overall)

13 QB's taken in the first round, only 2 sure things. Other than Luck or Wentz, which one do you look back on and say they were worth it?

Conversely, let's see other QB's drafted in rounds 2-4 since 2012, and see if there are more or less hits:

Brock Osweiler (2nd Round)
Russell Wilson (3rd Round)
Nick Foles (3rd Round)
Kirk Cousins (4th Round)
Geno Smith (2nd Round)
Mike Glennon (3rd Round)
Matt Barkley (4th Round)
Ryan Nassib (4th Round)
Tyler Wilson (4th Round)
Landry Jones (4th Round)
Derek Carr (2nd Round)
Jimmy Garrapolo (2nd Round)
Logan Thomas (4th Round)
Garret Grayson (3rd Round)
Sean Mannion (3rd Round)
Bryce Petty (4th Round)
Christian Hackenburg (2nd Round)
Jacoby Brissett (3rd Round)
Cody Kessler (3rd Round)
Connor Cook (4th Round)
Dak Prescott (4th Round)
Cardale Jones (4th Round)
DeShone Kizer (2nd Round)
Davis Webb (3rd Round)
CJ Beathard (3rd Round)
Josh Dobbs (4th Round)

Some solid QB's in there. Are we really seeing a great disparity in talent level of the 1st round QB's vs. rounds 2-4 since 2012? I'm not sure these later round guys are an outlier, anymore. At least not in recent draft history.


Britt, you make a very good point, and I tend to agree with you. 1st round QBs really only have a little better chance of being a franchise QB when you compare to 2nd and 3rd round QBs. But I think you are too harsh on the first round QBs. If Garrapolo and Dak are considered hits, then you have to consider Goff and Winston hits too.

The other thing to consider is that the first round is prone to more reaches than later rounds. Manziel and Manuel should never have been first round picks.
No matter what round you pick a QB in, there are going to  
Britt in VA : 2/8/2018 3:40 pm : link
be studs and duds. To me, it doesn't seem like a higher likelihood on picking a stud in the first round, when I look at the past six drafts.

I've post this article before, but I think it's relevant:

Quote:
Agent’s Take: Recent draft history shows first-round QBs are more likely to fail

Those who do not learn from history are doomed to repeat it.

NFL executives making decisions about first-round draft choices should heed this warning particularly when there isn't a strong group of quarterbacks available like this year.

The search for the ever elusive franchise quarterback drives NFL teams to select passers higher than they should. Sustaining success in the NFL is hard enough, but infinitely more difficult without good quarterback play.

The 2017 quarterback class doesn't have any players on par with those in the 2015 and 2016 drafts when passers were taken with the first- and second-overall picks. Despite this, it's conceivable that four quarterbacks will be selected in the first round for the first time since 2012.

North Carolina's Mitchell Trubisky, Clemson's Deshaun Watson, Texas Tech's Patrick Mahones, California's Davis Webb and Notre Dame's DeShone Kizer are considered as potential first-round picks by a majority of draft prognosticators. Trubisky is rumored to be a candidate to be taken first overall by the Browns even though he only started one season in college and Texas A&M defensive end Myles Garrett is a safer bet. Other first-round spots where quarterbacks could be a possibility are sixth (Jets), 10th (Bills) 12th (Browns-if Trubisky isn't first), 13th (Cardinals), 25th (Texans), 27th (Chiefs) and 32nd (Saints). Watson is generally considered as the next best prospect after Trubisky.

The first round of the 2004 NFL Draft is modern day gold standard for finding long term solutions at quarterback. Eli Manning, Philip Rivers, Ben Roethlisberger and J.P. Losman were selected first, fourth, 11th and 22nd. The first three have spent their entire NFL careers with the same team. Manning, a four-time Pro Bowler, has won two Super Bowls with the Giants in six playoff appearances. He was named MVP of both Super Bowl victories. Rivers, who has earned six Pro Bowl berths, has gotten the Chargers to the playoffs five times in 13 seasons. The Steelers have won two Super Bowls in three appearances with Roethlisberger under center. The five-time Pro Bowler has been to playoffs nine times as a Steeler. Losman had an eight-year NFL career where he started 33 games with the Bills, who drafted him. His biggest professional football achievement was leading the Las Vegas Locomotives to a championship in the now defunct United Football League's inaugural season in 2009.

For every successful first-round quarterback pick in recent years, there are almost twice as many failures. A conclusion can be drawn with 19 of the first-round picks. Only seven, or 36.8 percent, arguably could be considered a success.

Sam Bradford and Ryan Tannehill get categorized as successes under a broad definition of quarterbacks that could consistently put a team in position to make the playoffs more often than not under favorable circumstances or surrounded by the right pieces rather than being the catalyst of a playoff berth.

Joe Flacco is the only first-round quarterback drafted in the last 10 years to win a Super Bowl. He had a stellar postseason run during the 2012 season in which he threw 11 touchdowns without an interception and had a 117.2 passer rating en route to being named Super Bowl XLVII MVP. This led to Flacco briefly becoming the NFL's highest-paid player with the six-year, $120.6 million contract containing $51 million in guarantees he signed in 2013.

Matt Ryan and Cam Newton have earned NFL MVP honors in each of the last two seasons while leading their respective teams to the Super Bowl.

Andrew Luck, arguably the biggest can't-miss quarterback prospect since John Elway in 1983, found instant success. The Colts went from a league-worst 2-14 record in 2011 before Luck's arrival to the playoffs in 2012 with 11 wins. Luck re-set the NFL pay scale with the five-year extension he received from the Colts last offseason. The contract averages $24.594 million per year and contains $87 million in guarantees, of which $47 million was fully guaranteed at signing.

Matthew Stafford is in line to become the NFL's first $25 million per year player at some point this offseason after demonstrating he could thrive without six-time Pro Bowl wide receiver Calvin Johnson, who prematurely retired after the 2015 season.

A common denominator with Luck, Newton, Ryan and Stafford is they were top-three picks. Ryan is the only one that wasn't the first pick of his draft.

JaMarcus Russell is at the other end of the spectrum. He is widely considered as one of the biggest draft mistakes in NFL history. Russell only produced seven victories in 25 starts. He was benched midway during the 2009 season, his final season with the Raiders. He became the poster boy for a flawed rookie compensation system, which has been changed, that rewarded unproven high draft picks like Pro Bowlers. Russell made $39.365 million during his three NFL years, all in Oakland.

The jury is still out on the eight quarterbacks taken in the first round of the last three drafts except Manziel, who imploded, because it's too soon to reach a conclusion about these players. Jameis Winston and Marcus Mariota could eventually be thought of as best quarterbacks to go one-two of a draft in league history. Blake Bortles is at an early career crossroads after a disappointing 2016 season. There's no guarantee that the Jaguars will pick up his fifth year option for 2018 worth $19.053 million by the May 2 deadline. Teddy Bridgewater is trying to rebound from the career threatening knee injury he sustained last preseason.

Teams may be better served exercising more restraint with quarterbacks in the first round instead of reaching for a player because it's the game's most important position. There have been too many first-round quarterbacks that haven't panned out for the drafting team in recent years.

First-round quarterbacks that aren't overdrafted can pay dividends. Seventy-three of the 120 playoff teams (60.8 percent) over the last 10 years have gotten to the postseason with quarterbacks taken in the first round. Forty-four times the quarterback was a top-five pick. Additionally, six of the last 10 Super Bowl winners have had quarterbacks that were first-round picks.


Agent’s Take: Recent draft history shows first-round QBs are more likely to fail 4/17/17 - ( New Window )
Also  
Essex : 2/8/2018 3:40 pm : link
you think Alex Smith woke up one morning and became an MVP candidate??? The Reid/Pederson offenses are right now killing the NFL. The play design stuff coming from Phily and KC this year were beyond brilliant and if you can't see that, then that's on you.
RE: Come on  
Britt in VA : 2/8/2018 3:41 pm : link
In comment 13826938 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
man, Goff is pretty close to a sure thing.

As a 2nd year QB he had 62% completion %, 3800 yards, and 28 TD's to 7 picks.

and no DeShaun Watson on your list?

I'd take him over any QB in the your 2nd round or later list.


Both honest mistakes. I was scrolling through round by round and looking for only QB's.
It wasn't intentional to exclude him....  
Britt in VA : 2/8/2018 3:42 pm : link
or not bold Goff.
RE: RE: These are all of the first round QB's since 2012  
Britt in VA : 2/8/2018 3:43 pm : link
In comment 13826951 Emil said:
Quote:
In comment 13826929 Britt in VA said:


Quote:


The reason I chose 2012 is because, IMO, Andrew Luck was the last "true", can't miss franchise QB to come out:

Andrew Luck (1 overall)
Griffin III (2 overall)
Ryan Tannehill (8 overall)
Brandon Weeden (22 overall)
EJ Manual (16 overall)
Blake Bortles (3 overall)
Manziel (22 overall)
Bridgewater (32 overall)
Winston (1 overall)
Mariota (2 overall)
Goff (1 overall)
Wentz (2 overall)
Paxton Lynch (26 overall)

13 QB's taken in the first round, only 2 sure things. Other than Luck or Wentz, which one do you look back on and say they were worth it?

Conversely, let's see other QB's drafted in rounds 2-4 since 2012, and see if there are more or less hits:

Brock Osweiler (2nd Round)
Russell Wilson (3rd Round)
Nick Foles (3rd Round)
Kirk Cousins (4th Round)
Geno Smith (2nd Round)
Mike Glennon (3rd Round)
Matt Barkley (4th Round)
Ryan Nassib (4th Round)
Tyler Wilson (4th Round)
Landry Jones (4th Round)
Derek Carr (2nd Round)
Jimmy Garrapolo (2nd Round)
Logan Thomas (4th Round)
Garret Grayson (3rd Round)
Sean Mannion (3rd Round)
Bryce Petty (4th Round)
Christian Hackenburg (2nd Round)
Jacoby Brissett (3rd Round)
Cody Kessler (3rd Round)
Connor Cook (4th Round)
Dak Prescott (4th Round)
Cardale Jones (4th Round)
DeShone Kizer (2nd Round)
Davis Webb (3rd Round)
CJ Beathard (3rd Round)
Josh Dobbs (4th Round)

Some solid QB's in there. Are we really seeing a great disparity in talent level of the 1st round QB's vs. rounds 2-4 since 2012? I'm not sure these later round guys are an outlier, anymore. At least not in recent draft history.



Britt, you make a very good point, and I tend to agree with you. 1st round QBs really only have a little better chance of being a franchise QB when you compare to 2nd and 3rd round QBs. But I think you are too harsh on the first round QBs. If Garrapolo and Dak are considered hits, then you have to consider Goff and Winston hits too.

The other thing to consider is that the first round is prone to more reaches than later rounds. Manziel and Manuel should never have been first round picks.


That's sort of my point. You're not getting that much more value in Goff or Winston than you are in Dak or Garrapolo, but the value of the pick was much higher.
And again, I'm not against taking a QB at 2....  
Britt in VA : 2/8/2018 3:45 pm : link
not at all!

But everything I've posted here has given me pause, and continues to...

I'm surprised more don't feel the same.
RE: Come on  
Gatorade Dunk : 2/8/2018 3:46 pm : link
In comment 13826938 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
man, Goff is pretty close to a sure thing.

As a 2nd year QB he had 62% completion %, 3800 yards, and 28 TD's to 7 picks.

and no DeShaun Watson on your list?

I'd take him over any QB in the your 2nd round or later list.

And Foles gets Britt's "sure thing" nod because, as we know, SB MVP is the only thing that matters for a QB. Foles will now be beloved for all time and the Eagles would be fools to ever move on from him. That's how it works, right?
The "sure thing" was only for the 1st round....  
Britt in VA : 2/8/2018 3:48 pm : link
the ones bolded in later rounds I just deemed significantly above others in the later rounds.

That's all. There is no agenda.
I don't consider Dak Prescott or Foles or Garrapolo....  
Britt in VA : 2/8/2018 3:49 pm : link
sure things. But they are going to be starters, and they are going receive large second contracts.
But yeah, Superbowl MVP is pretty nice.  
Britt in VA : 2/8/2018 3:50 pm : link
If we had a second rounder that was Superbowl MVP, I'd be pretty happy with that pick.
RE: RE: RE: These are all of the first round QB's since 2012  
MetsAreBack : 2/8/2018 3:54 pm : link
In comment 13826963 Britt in VA said:
Quote:



That's sort of my point. You're not getting that much more value in Goff or Winston than you are in Dak or Garrapolo, but the value of the pick was much higher.



First round QB picks "hit" far more often than later picks. Same as for RBs, DEs, LBs, DBs, OL, etc.

Sure, Dak might be as good as Winston, time will tell ... Kareem Hunt is already better than David Wilson. Leveon Bell runs circles around Trent Richardson.

Marques Colston, a 7th round pick, was so much better than Charles Rogers (2nd overall) or pick any Mike Williams.

Pick 50 late round LB picks since 2012 that turned out better than Aaron Curry... or later round DE picks that turned out better than Vernon Gholston.

I'll also point out the "value" of the Garoppolo pick was never realized - in part because he was picked later in the draft and thus was never given an opportunity to play on a rookie deal, now that he's actually playing - he's costing $28 mil a year against your cap, so there was never any real value in drafting him later.
RE: He sure as hell looks like the real deal  
Beer Man : 2/8/2018 3:55 pm : link
In comment 13826840 Ron from Ninerland said:
Quote:
He's a polished accurate passer. That fact that he got this way after only 7 NFL starts, all of which he won speaks volumes.
But most QBs don't score the big payday until they have proven themselves over 3 to 4 seasons
I agree 100% there is risk  
pjcas18 : 2/8/2018 3:55 pm : link
with 1st round QB's. that's not even debatable. It might be the position with the most high profile failures.

However, ask yourself this question, if the 2000 draft happens again where do you think Brady goes?

Obviously #1 overall or close to it.

If the 2012 draft happens again, where does Wilson go?

Obviously early 1st round.

If 2013 draft happens again, where does Cousins go?

obviously early 1st round.

Point is that those players fell out of the 1st round for a reason, they had less projection and more perceived risk (Wilson's height) or were considered projects (Brady) or even backup QB's/insurance (Cousins)

Because they worked out well I don't think sets a good enough precedent to wait on your QB. I still think the most "sure thing" QB's will go early or worst case somewhere in the 1st round.

I think you need to trust the scouts.

Being wrong can set a franchise back years, but also not picking a QB in the first and thinking you'll outsmart everyone and take one later in the draft who becomes a franchise QB can set your team back years as well.

No right answer, but I think the odds of finding a franchise QB in the 1st are better than later in the draft, not sure if the #'s prove it or not.
RE: I agree 100% there is risk  
MetsAreBack : 2/8/2018 3:57 pm : link
In comment 13826991 pjcas18 said:
Quote:


No right answer, but I think the odds of finding a franchise QB in the 1st are better than later in the draft, not sure if the #'s prove it or not.



Without question, the numbers prove far higher hit rates on first round QB draft choices than later round ones.

Just like any other position on the field.
RE: RE: RE: These are all of the first round QB's since 2012  
Emil : 2/8/2018 3:58 pm : link
In comment 13826963 Britt in VA said:
Quote:
In comment 13826951 Emil said:


Quote:


In comment 13826929 Britt in VA said:


Quote:


The reason I chose 2012 is because, IMO, Andrew Luck was the last "true", can't miss franchise QB to come out:

Andrew Luck (1 overall)
Griffin III (2 overall)
Ryan Tannehill (8 overall)
Brandon Weeden (22 overall)
EJ Manual (16 overall)
Blake Bortles (3 overall)
Manziel (22 overall)
Bridgewater (32 overall)
Winston (1 overall)
Mariota (2 overall)
Goff (1 overall)
Wentz (2 overall)
Paxton Lynch (26 overall)

13 QB's taken in the first round, only 2 sure things. Other than Luck or Wentz, which one do you look back on and say they were worth it?

Conversely, let's see other QB's drafted in rounds 2-4 since 2012, and see if there are more or less hits:

Brock Osweiler (2nd Round)
Russell Wilson (3rd Round)
Nick Foles (3rd Round)
Kirk Cousins (4th Round)
Geno Smith (2nd Round)
Mike Glennon (3rd Round)
Matt Barkley (4th Round)
Ryan Nassib (4th Round)
Tyler Wilson (4th Round)
Landry Jones (4th Round)
Derek Carr (2nd Round)
Jimmy Garrapolo (2nd Round)
Logan Thomas (4th Round)
Garret Grayson (3rd Round)
Sean Mannion (3rd Round)
Bryce Petty (4th Round)
Christian Hackenburg (2nd Round)
Jacoby Brissett (3rd Round)
Cody Kessler (3rd Round)
Connor Cook (4th Round)
Dak Prescott (4th Round)
Cardale Jones (4th Round)
DeShone Kizer (2nd Round)
Davis Webb (3rd Round)
CJ Beathard (3rd Round)
Josh Dobbs (4th Round)

Some solid QB's in there. Are we really seeing a great disparity in talent level of the 1st round QB's vs. rounds 2-4 since 2012? I'm not sure these later round guys are an outlier, anymore. At least not in recent draft history.



Britt, you make a very good point, and I tend to agree with you. 1st round QBs really only have a little better chance of being a franchise QB when you compare to 2nd and 3rd round QBs. But I think you are too harsh on the first round QBs. If Garrapolo and Dak are considered hits, then you have to consider Goff and Winston hits too.

The other thing to consider is that the first round is prone to more reaches than later rounds. Manziel and Manuel should never have been first round picks.



That's sort of my point. You're not getting that much more value in Goff or Winston than you are in Dak or Garrapolo, but the value of the pick was much higher.


Oh I don't disagree with you at all there. I don't think 1st round QBs are a sure thing. Luck is the exception not the rule.

I'm all for a day 2 pick at QB. I like Mike White (a lot) and Mason Rudolph intrigues me. Of the day 1 QBs the only one I can really see taking, if I am the Giants, is Darnold, and that's just because of his personality + skills. Rosen is so talented, but I think he is a risk. Mayfield is a great player, but I can find a QB with similar abilities in the late first or early second.
Britt  
Milton : 2/8/2018 3:59 pm : link
Let's re-do your list based on the Giants having the second pick in the draft, because the whole point is that they aren't expected to be drafting in the top two again for another twenty or forty years, whereas we can expect them to have a first round pick every year (and I added a couple of years to widen the sample set)....
Quote:
1 1 Jared Goff QB California Los Angeles Rams
1 2 Carson Wentz QB North Dakota State Philadelphia Eagles
1 1 Jameis Winston QB Florida State Tampa Bay Buccaneers
1 2 Marcus Mariota QB Oregon Tennessee Titans
1 1 Andrew Luck QB Stanford Indianapolis Colts
1 2 Robert Griffin QB Baylor Washington Redskins
1 1 Cam Newton QB Auburn Carolina Panthers
1 1 Sam Bradford QB Oklahoma St. Louis Rams
1 1 Matthew Stafford QB Georgia Detroit Lions

Quote:
1 26 Paxton Lynch QB Memphis Denver Broncos
2 51 Christian Hackenberg QB Penn State New York Jets
3 91 Jacoby Brissett QB North Carolina State New England Patriots
3 93 Cody Kessler QB USC Cleveland Browns
4 100 Connor Cook QB Michigan State Oakland Raiders
4 135 Dak Prescott QB Mississippi State Dallas Cowboys
4 139 Cardale Jones QB Ohio State Buffalo Bills
5 162 Kevin Hogan QB Stanford Kansas City Chiefs
6 187 Nate Sudfeld QB Indiana Washington Redskins
6 191 Jake Rudock QB Michigan Detroit Lions
6 201 Brandon Allen QB Arkansas Jacksonville Jaguars
6 207 Jeff Driskel QB Louisiana Tech San Francisco 49ers
7 223 Brandon Doughty QB Western Kentucky Miami Dolphins
3 75 Garrett Grayson QB Colorado State New Orleans Saints
3 89 Sean Mannion QB Oregon State St. Louis Rams
4 103 Bryce Petty QB Baylor New York Jets
5 147 Brett Hundley QB UCLA Green Bay Packers
7 250 Trevor Siemian QB Northwestern Denver Broncos
1 3 Blake Bortles QB Central Florida Jacksonville Jaguars
1 22 Johnny Manziel QB Texas A&M Cleveland Browns
1 32 Teddy Bridgewater QB Louisville Minnesota Vikings
2 36 Derek Carr QB Fresno State Oakland Raiders
2 62 Jimmy Garoppolo QB Eastern Illinois New England Patriots
4 120 Logan Thomas QB Virginia Tech Arizona Cardinals
4 135 Tom Savage QB Pittsburgh Houston Texans
5 163 Aaron Murray QB Georgia Kansas City Chiefs
5 164 AJ McCarron QB Alabama Cincinnati Bengals
6 178 Zach Mettenberger QB LSU Tennessee Titans
6 183 David Fales QB San Jose State Chicago Bears
6 194 Keith Wenning QB Ball State Baltimore Ravens
6 213 Tajh Boyd QB Clemson New York Jets
6 214 Garrett Gilbert QB Southern Methodist St. Louis Rams
1 16 EJ Manuel QB Florida State Buffalo Bills
2 39 Geno Smith QB West Virginia New York Jets
3 73 Mike Glennon QB North Carolina State Tampa Bay Buccaneers
4 98 Matt Barkley QB USC Philadelphia Eagles
4 110 Ryan Nassib QB Syracuse New York Giants
4 112 Tyler Wilson QB Arkansas Oakland Raiders
4 115 Landry Jones QB Oklahoma Pittsburgh Steelers
7 221 Brad Sorensen QB Southern Utah San Diego Chargers
7 234 Zac Dysert QB Miami (Ohio) Denver Broncos
7 237 B.J. Daniels QB South Florida San Francisco 49ers
7 249 Sean Renfree QB Duke Atlanta Falcons
1 8 Ryan Tannehill QB Texas A&M Miami Dolphins
1 22 Brandon Weeden QB Oklahoma State Cleveland Browns
2 57 Brock Osweiler QB Arizona State Denver Broncos
3 75 Russell Wilson QB Wisconsin Seattle Seahawks
3 88 Nick Foles QB Arizona Philadelphia Eagles
4 102 Kirk Cousins QB Michigan State Washington Redskins
6 185 Ryan Lindley QB San Diego State Arizona Cardinals
7 243 B.J. Coleman QB Tennessee-Chattanooga Green Bay Packers
7 253 Chandler Harnish QB Northern Illinois Indianapolis Colts
1 8 Jake Locker QB Washington Tennessee Titans
1 10 Blaine Gabbert QB Missouri Jacksonville Jaguars
1 12 Christian Ponder QB Florida State Minnesota Vikings
2 35 Andy Dalton QB Texas Christian Cincinnati Bengals
2 36 Colin Kaepernick QB Nevada-Reno San Francisco 49ers
3 74 Ryan Mallett QB Arkansas New England Patriots
5 135 Ricky Stanzi QB Iowa Kansas City Chiefs
5 152 T.J Yates QB North Carolina Houston Texans
5 160 Nathan Enderle QB Idaho Chicago Bears
6 180 Tyrod Taylor QB Virginia Tech Baltimore Ravens
7 208 Greg McElroy QB Alabama New York Jets
1 25 Tim Tebow QB Florida Denver Broncos
2 48 Jimmy Clausen QB Notre Dame Carolina Panthers
3 85 Colt McCoy QB Texas Cleveland Browns
4 122 Mike Kafka QB Northwestern Philadelphia Eagles
5 155 John Skelton QB Fordham Arizona Cardinals
5 168 Jonathan Crompton QB Tennessee San Diego Chargers
6 176 Rusty Smith QB Florida Atlantic Tennessee Titans
6 181 Dan LeFevour QB Central Michigan Chicago Bears
6 199 Joe Webb QB Alabama-Birmingham Minnesota Vikings
6 204 Tony Pike QB Cincinnati Carolina Panthers
7 209 Levi Brown QB Troy Buffalo Bills
7 239 Sean Canfield QB Oregon State New Orleans Saints
7 250 Zac Robinson QB Oklahoma State New England Patriots
1 5 Mark Sanchez QB USC New York Jets
1 17 Josh Freeman QB Kansas State Tampa Bay Buccaneers
2 44 Pat White QB West Virginia Miami Dolphins
4 101 Stephen McGee QB Texas A&M Dallas Cowboys
5 151 Rhett Bomar QB Sam Houston State New York Giants
5 171 Nate Davis QB Ball State San Francisco 49ers
6 174 Tom Brandstater QB Fresno State Denver Broncos
6 178 Mike Teel QB Rutgers Seattle Seahawks
6 196 Keith Null QB West Texas A&M St. Louis Rams
6 201 Curtis Painter QB Purdue Indianapolis Colts


The bottom line is the Giants can't miss with this pick.  
Britt in VA : 2/8/2018 4:01 pm : link
If they do, we're f-cked for a long time.

That scares me.
RE: The bottom line is the Giants can't miss with this pick.  
Milton : 2/8/2018 4:04 pm : link
In comment 13827005 Britt in VA said:
Quote:
If they do, we're f-cked for a long time.

That scares me.
You can't draft scared. You do your homework and trust your evaluation.
Yes, we dont want to screw it up  
MetsAreBack : 2/8/2018 4:10 pm : link
but the Chargers took Ryan Leaf in the 1998 draft over Peyton Manning. That's as big a fuck up as there's ever been in the NFL.

3 years later they had Drew Brees. 3 years after that they had Rivers too. And had as good a shot as anybody to win a SuperBowl from 2004-2009 but came up a little short.

Anyway, you can fuck up the pick with a QB. History is littered with failed picks at all positions (or injured - keep in mind injury tragedies cut non-QB careers short a hell of a lot more often than for the most protected player on the field).

Can't draft scared.
RE: The bottom line is the Giants can't miss with this pick.  
pjcas18 : 2/8/2018 4:13 pm : link
In comment 13827005 Britt in VA said:
Quote:
If they do, we're f-cked for a long time.

That scares me.


Agree they can't miss, but it's not as bad now with the new CBA as it used to be. Consider that Sam Bradford signed a 6 year 90+ million dollar contract with $50M guaranteed when he was drafted in 2010 and Mitch Trubisky last year signed a 4 year $29M contract with a significantly higher cap.

Not as crippling as it once was. But that value is something that would be really awesome to get a few years out of (starting QB making 8M per season, not $25M).



RE: RE: The bottom line is the Giants can't miss with this pick.  
YAJ2112 : 2/8/2018 4:13 pm : link
In comment 13827010 Milton said:
Quote:
In comment 13827005 Britt in VA said:


Quote:


If they do, we're f-cked for a long time.

That scares me.

You can't draft scared. You do your homework and trust your evaluation.


And if the evaluation tells them that the QBs aren't worth taking?
RE: RE: RE: The bottom line is the Giants can't miss with this pick.  
Milton : 2/8/2018 4:18 pm : link
In comment 13827024 YAJ2112 said:
Quote:
In comment 13827010 Milton said:


Quote:


In comment 13827005 Britt in VA said:


Quote:


If they do, we're f-cked for a long time.

That scares me.

You can't draft scared. You do your homework and trust your evaluation.



And if the evaluation tells them that the QBs aren't worth taking?
Then don't take one!
If Reese were still the GM...  
Britt in VA : 2/8/2018 4:28 pm : link
I think it would be a stone cold lock we were taking a QB.

With the way Gettleman is shaking things up in the scouting department, and based on his overall philosophy, I'm not so sure QB is their highest rated player at 2.
I don't think Gettleman  
pjcas18 : 2/8/2018 4:31 pm : link
or any GM for that matter would simply take highest rated player in a vacuum.

I think they all have tiers and position weights and then balance players ranking, position weight, and need to make their selection - especially in the 1st round.

So Gettleman might have a player rated higher overall, but could still take a QB depending on what CLE does and how the Giants have their board.

pure guess on my part though, I haven't listened to Gettleman talk draft like we've heard Reese over the years.
I don't think we could be clear on what his philosophy is.  
Ten Ton Hammer : 2/8/2018 4:33 pm : link
"With the second pick, we're going to take the best player," Gettleman said. "They screamed at me in Carolina, 'You've got to draft a tackle, you've got to draft a tackle.' If the value's not there when you pick, you're going to make a mistake. You'll make a mistake. We're going to set ourselves up so that we can take the best player available. And if the best player available is a quarterback, then that's what we're going to do."
Well, that's the question, isn't it.  
Britt in VA : 2/8/2018 4:37 pm : link
In their eyes, who's going to be the best available player in the draft at 2? Second question is, do they have 2 QB's as the top two players in the draft?
Third question would be....  
Britt in VA : 2/8/2018 4:38 pm : link
Do the NYG and Cleveland Browns have the same player as the best player in the draft?
RE: Third question would be....  
Milton : 2/8/2018 4:50 pm : link
In comment 13827058 Britt in VA said:
Quote:
Do the NYG and Cleveland Browns have the same player as the best player in the draft?
My prediction is that the Browns will prefer Darnold because he is the safer QB and the Giants will prefer Rosen because he is the better QB. So everybody goes home happy!
Pages: 1 2 3 <<Prev | Show All |  Next>>
Back to the Corner