NFT: NYM 2018 Expectations Thread-

I am hoping for 88-90 wins and a shot at the WC.

Realistically, they probably end up at 82 and are .500 team

With the Mets, being more active doesn�t necessarily mean a good thing.

But they�ll certainly spin it that way!

C: is it as bleak as it seems? TDA ridiculously injury prone, Plaweiki below avg backup.

1B: do you expect Smith or Gonzalez to win the job? Has Smith trimmed his sloppy physique this offseason?

OF: any chance of a Nimmo/Lagares platoon until Conforto comes back?

Conforto: Met (bad) luck aside - Do they fear long term damage?

Thor: has he lost some of the added muscle from last year?

Harvey: with the injuries, has he likely lost (permanently) some of his front line pitching stuff? Is he upside more of a "3" now?

How is the bullpen (projected)?

Thor: has he slimmed down or

and not just the starting pitching. We all know about Harvey, Wheeler and Matz- can they stay healthy? Can Conforto return and be the power hitter he was before his shoulder injury? Is Cespedes ready and healthy enough to play 145 games?

It stats with pitching. If the fab five can start 25-30 games each, they have a shot at the WC, then who knows? Syndergard is a beast and DeGromm is poised to have a big year.

Cautiously optimistic- 88 wins and sneak in to WC.

"over" but IMO it's playoffs or bust for Sandy's regime. He's been GM far too long to only make the final 8 teams (top 25%) just one time.

to my head today... 83 wins but upside for more and downside to be fucking awful.

In comment 13831873 Pep22 said:

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C: is it as bleak as it seems? TDA ridiculously injury prone, Plaweiki below avg backup. 1B: do you expect Smith or Gonzalez to win the job? Has Smith trimmed his sloppy physique this offseason? OF: any chance of a Nimmo/Lagares platoon until Conforto comes back? Conforto: Met (bad) luck aside - Do they fear long term damage? Thor: has he lost some of the added muscle from last year? Harvey: with the injuries, has he likely lost (permanently) some of his front line pitching stuff? Is he upside more of a "3" now? How is the bullpen (projected)? Thor: has he slimmed down or

Sandy already said Lagares is the starting CF, no platoon. #3 starter for Harvey is probably shooting high (anything is possible of course). Smith is in shape as of right now, Gonzalez the clear favorite to start however.

that said Lagares is being actively shopped.

Did you see it? I forget to who, SF maybe for Panik?

didn't make much sense to me, I prefer Flores to Panik, but I know I saw it and not from a random fan, from a media guy.

If they do and 1 of the 3 between Matz, Harvey and Wheeler stays healthy throughout the season, this is an 85+ win team.

Its very scary how dependent this team is on players coming back from injuries though. Conforto, Cespedes, Harvey, Matz, Wheeler are all big pieces that have a TON of question marks right now. Those players will make or break this team's postseason hopes.

If most come back and stay healthy for the majority of the season, they are on the plus side of 85, if not, they could fall well short.

..STAY HEALTHY, and they are in the mix.


BTW I love the start of baseball season especially after a miserable football year, and currently a miserable hockey year.

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The Mets' early inclination is to make Juan Lagares the everyday CF in Conforto's absence because of defense. Plus, Brandon Nimmo has been very good off the bench. Hence the search for a leadoff option other than Nimmo:

In comment 13831972 pjcas18 said:

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that said Lagares is being actively shopped. Did you see it? I forget to who, SF maybe for Panik? didn't make much sense to me, I prefer Flores to Panik, but I know I saw it and not from a random fan, from a media guy.

The rumor comes from Mike Francesa (who is actually close with Jeff) however he's the one who said "maybe for Panik". Sounds like utter BS.

Giants beat writer is questioning how they can even fit Watson into their payroll so Lagares for Panik doesn't even make sense in that regard. I don't even particularly like Lagares but I wouldn't do that deal.

which would put them in the thick of the WC race. They need to stay healthy, obviously, and need a good year out of Matz, and need someone out of the Harvey, Wheeler, Gsellman and Lugo group to step up.

Best case scenario - Thor and deGrom have big years, combine for 35+ wins, Matz gets 15, and Harvey and 5th starter get 15-20 wins, then we're looking at a 90-95 win team. Everything would have to break right for that to happen, IMO.

of the season hinges on Rosario development. If he can put it all together that type of impact could really translate.

Another big part will be AJ Ramos setting up Familia his pitching will determine at least 10 games this year. He absolutely can not allow his first man to reach the base paths. Familia is a completely different player with inherited runners

I expect Thor Degrom Bruce & Frazier to continue to be solid.

Cespedes & Harvey will be the wildcards as is A-Gonz

the vegas over/under is probably exactly right, but I'll optimistically take the over on that. To me the season comes down to basically 3 things:

1. General health - Cespedes/Thor/JDG/Familia need to stay healthy. Hopefully the checks to the new director of high performance cleared.

2. Starting pitching - Can someone step up and be a consistent #3 behind JDG/Thor?

3. Does anyone surprise? Last year heading into ST we thought Conforto would start the year in Vegas and he ended up the team's lone all star. Can Rosario, Lagares, Nimmo, Smith, AGon, or even 1 of the catchers have an unexpected breakout? Not much is expected of that group, just 1 of them having a 4-5 war season like Lagares did in 2014 would be huge. On the pitching side the group would include Montero, Gsellman, Lugo, and the litany of BP arms.

If they get #1 I think they can comfortably hit 80 wins. If they get #1 and #2 they can be in the wild card mix, which is what my prediction would be. To compete with the Nats they'd need the best case scenario of all 3.

I'm also suffering from spring training fever, ill go 85 wins and a WC birth.

Lets go METS

In comment 13832006 DanMetroMan said:

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Giants beat writer is questioning how they can even fit Watson into their payroll so Lagares for Panik doesn't even make sense in that regard. I don't even particularly like Lagares but I wouldn't do that deal.

I like Panik but I don't see how he fits unless they dump Cabrera on someone, which seems extremely unlikely.

That's my call. Prove me wrong, boys!

In comment 13832033 Eric on Li said:

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In comment 13832006 DanMetroMan said: Quote: Giants beat writer is questioning how they can even fit Watson into their payroll so Lagares for Panik doesn't even make sense in that regard. I don't even particularly like Lagares but I wouldn't do that deal. I like Panik but I don't see how he fits unless they dump Cabrera on someone, which seems extremely unlikely.

Was so bad in the field in 2017 that it would be a red flag that the Giants have shopped him all off-season and bat while good doesn't warrant the gamble in my view.

In comment 13831968 DanMetroMan said:

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to my head today... 83 wins but upside for more and downside to be fucking awful.

Dan respect your opinion on this board so I'll just ask

Who is the starting first baseman on this team this time next year?

Next years FA class is weak, A-Gonz will prob be gone, if Dominic Smith doesnt get traded or workout it has to be Bruce right?

2017 -11 DRS

Wilmer -1

Cabrera -6


Considering Panik has been league average by fWAR the last 2 seasons, I don't see him as much of an upgrade at the expense of an EXTREMELY thin OF. Yeah if they somehow turned Cabrera into a solid OF sure but that's beyond unlikely.

In comment 13832043 DanMetroMan said:

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In comment 13832033 Eric on Li said: Quote: In comment 13832006 DanMetroMan said: Quote: Giants beat writer is questioning how they can even fit Watson into their payroll so Lagares for Panik doesn't even make sense in that regard. I don't even particularly like Lagares but I wouldn't do that deal. I like Panik but I don't see how he fits unless they dump Cabrera on someone, which seems extremely unlikely. Was so bad in the field in 2017 that it would be a red flag that the Giants have shopped him all off-season and bat while good doesn't warrant the gamble in my view.

Yeah I would think this org has learned their lesson on IF'ers with back injuries.

In comment 13832046 Rory said:

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In comment 13831968 DanMetroMan said: Quote: to my head today... 83 wins but upside for more and downside to be fucking awful. Dan respect your opinion on this board so I'll just ask Who is the starting first baseman on this team this time next year? Next years FA class is weak, A-Gonz will prob be gone, if Dominic Smith doesnt get traded or workout it has to be Bruce right?

I'll go with Dom Smith with Alonso breathing down his neck (that might be optimistic). Bruce is of course a possibility however they don't have a 2019 OF in the minors so it's not as if it's a clear solution.

This year, I'm expecting injuries to factor in and think we'll be in the 72-76 range.

Until some of the injury prone players can prove they can stay healthy and produce, hard to expect more wins than that.

I made a major mistake being bullish on this team last year. Not getting fooled again.

I fully expect another rash of injuries and another year out of the postseason.

78 wins.

but I'll say right around .500 so 83 wins with a low of 78 and a high of 88. If they hit the high they have a shot for wild card contention. I don't think they will if I had to guess, but hope to be pleasantly surprised.

And I feel the Mets will sell at the deadline again and stock pile more middle relievers with little upside.

is too much. They can get by with a few injuries, but i'm skeptical that they will stay healthy at all.

In comment 13832134 pjcas18 said:

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but I'll say right around .500 so 83 wins with a low of 78 and a high of 88. If they hit the high they have a shot for wild card contention. I don't think they will if I had to guess, but hope to be pleasantly surprised. And I feel the Mets will sell at the deadline again and stock pile more middle relievers with little upside.

I will say somehow when Sandy is "honest" it's almost more deflating. 1. Admitting the sell-off was in part an attempt to show Fred they could dump payroll if need be (didn't explicitly say they took less but 2 different sources confirmed Tyler O'Neill was in fact discussed for Duda but money killed it) 2. Admitting the farm isn't very good. I'd almost prefer he bullshit me here (#2 in particular) lol

So probably 85 wins and fall short of wc2

says Rosario "right on par" with Lindor.

Eiland saying Harvey had "bad pitching habits" but that he is back on track now and in good shape.

Absolutely not expecting this but if we get the old Matt Harvey back or something close, it would make a MASSIVE difference.

I think it would benefit the Mets most of Matz was the guy who put together a full, solid year of the question mark SP's we have - but I think Harvey is the guy most likely to do it.

did not say what people are claiming he said. He said he heard the Giants asked about Lagares "at some point" and that HE could see the Mets liking Panik. Nothing to see here.

In comment 13832252 arcarsenal said:

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Eiland saying Harvey had "bad pitching habits" but that he is back on track now and in good shape. Absolutely not expecting this but if we get the old Matt Harvey back or something close, it would make a MASSIVE difference. I think it would benefit the Mets most of Matz was the guy who put together a full, solid year of the question mark SP's we have - but I think Harvey is the guy most likely to do it.

Of course Harvey will figure it out this year, and pitch with CY Young capability. Just in time for becoming a top pitching FA on the market.

In all seriousness if this happens the Mets organization are going to have to make a big decision at the trade deadline

conversation.

Not going to play this game this year.

If they are healthy and well coached, they should be in play for a wild card. And it sucks that the WC is the bar that is set for this team.

More than anything...I'm just hoping that the team is lucky. Because that's the only formula to winning that the Mets excel at LOL.

FWIW... these were the WC win totals the last 5 seasons in the NL:

2017:

ARZ - 93
COL - 87

2016:

NYM: 87
SF: 87

2015:

PIT: 98
CHC: 97

2014:

PIT: 88
SF: 88

2013:

PIT: 94
CIN: 90

So, 85 wins could get you close or have you almost 10 games out. Really depends on the season.

team in the history of the WC (not counting the strike shortened seasons). 85 wins sounds close but not really when you factor in all of the other teams you have to fight over.

85 wins is like smelling dinner but not getting close to the kitchen.

In comment 13832286 PhiPsi125 said:

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team in the history of the WC (not counting the strike shortened seasons). 85 wins sounds close but not really when you factor in all of the other teams you have to fight over. 85 wins is like smelling dinner but not getting close to the kitchen.

That's an average of 90.9 wins for the WC teams.

70-75 wins if things break bad, 83-87 wins if things break good.

In comment 13832280 arcarsenal said:

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FWIW... these were the WC win totals the last 5 seasons in the NL: 2017: ARZ - 93 COL - 87 2016: NYM: 87 SF: 87 2015: PIT: 98 CHC: 97 2014: PIT: 88 SF: 88 2013: PIT: 94 CIN: 90 So, 85 wins could get you close or have you almost 10 games out. Really depends on the season.

Thanks for pulling that out. Didn't realize how lucky the Mets were to get the wild card in 2016 after winning only 87 games.

Mets 2017 - we're going to the world series. Not even close.

Giants - We're going to the Super Bowl. We know what happened.

NYRangers - We're a deep tourney team and if the "King" gets hot, maybe a Cup. Open the season like 2-9, struggling and now in a sell mode.

NYKnicks - Jackson gone, no more triangle, influx of young (kind of) talent - possible playoff team. Now selling (if they had anything to sell) and KZing out until 2019.

I'm taking the under and saying 71 wins and a fourth place finish right in front of the broken Marlin team.

In comment 13832286 PhiPsi125 said:

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team in the history of the WC (not counting the strike shortened seasons). 85 wins sounds close but not really when you factor in all of the other teams you have to fight over. 85 wins is like smelling dinner but not getting close to the kitchen.

Yeah, definitely - not disagreeing with you at all. To be in the conversation @ 85 wins, we'd have to be pretty fortunate.

Gotta get to 90 to have a shot, IMO.

In comment 13832315 Oskie said:

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Mets 2017 - we're going to the world series. Not even close. Giants - We're going to the Super Bowl. We know what happened. NYRangers - We're a deep tourney team and if the "King" gets hot, maybe a Cup. Open the season like 2-9, struggling and now in a sell mode. NYKnicks - Jackson gone, no more triangle, influx of young (kind of) talent - possible playoff team. Now selling (if they had anything to sell) and KZing out until 2019. I'm taking the under and saying 71 wins and a fourth place finish right in front of the broken Marlin team.

I'm a fan of the same 4 teams...

Has not been a fun year for us.

It's way to early to tell but what are everyone's thoughts on our new manager?

In comment 13832322 NYG27 said:

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It's way to early to tell but what are everyone's thoughts on our new manager?

He talks the talk but other than that who could really form any opinion?

In comment 13832322 NYG27 said:

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It's way to early to tell but what are everyone's thoughts on our new manager?

Automatic upgrade from TC without even stepping on the field yet. I'm overly optimistic about Callaway.

Hard to say since nobody has seen him in action as a Manager yet but I like that he's taken an interest in the pitching. If he could just to the opposite of everything Collins did, we are in business.

I will say that Callaway was one thing I did think they got right.

No way to know how he's going to do as of now, but I like that he has the background he has with pitching because it's really going to be the key for the Mets as they are constructed now.

For this team to succeed, we HAVE to get our rotation back to being the strength it was a couple years ago.

Callaway has said all of the right things so far and I am on board. We'll see how he manages when the games count.

but I think they will finish hovering around .500. 80-84 wins.

I wish they would have also adjusted their hitting philosophy away from all or nothing power hitters, but that's a different story.

It sucks that the early schedule is reasonably tough, if there were ever a team that could use a hot start it's this one.

other than he's going to be under a lot of pressure.

I've read more than one person write that the Mets best off-season acquisition is the manager.

Yet, you also hear so called experts constantly tell you a baseball manager has an impact on a limited # of W's/L's.

I believe that's a flawed way to look at things (for a contender). When you look back how many teams missed the wild card or the division by a game or two.

To me that the difference a manager can make. Sure when you're not a contender who cares, a manager maybe can't bridge the gap between 70 wins and 90, but between 86 and 90? Perhaps.

I think with everyone healthy (yeah right), Callaway will feel immediate pressure due to expectations.

today about how he's careful with warming up bullpen guys and that his job is to prevent "needless wear and tear."

If he can follow through on this, it would be quite a change from Terry Collins who ran certain bullpen pitchers into the ground each year.

In comment 13832280 arcarsenal said:

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FWIW... these were the WC win totals the last 5 seasons in the NL: 2017: ARZ - 93 COL - 87 2016: NYM: 87 SF: 87 2015: PIT: 98 CHC: 97 2014: PIT: 88 SF: 88 2013: PIT: 94 CIN: 90 So, 85 wins could get you close or have you almost 10 games out. Really depends on the season.

Interesting post.

In comment 13832126 arcarsenal said:

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I made a major mistake being bullish on this team last year. Not getting fooled again. I fully expect another rash of injuries and another year out of the postseason. 78 wins.

It does seem like things would have to line up just right for the Met's to make a run...

was an aberration. Sure, every team has injuries, but if you lose your ace, your closer, and your best hitter for most of the season, not many teams are going to survive that.

Obviously, injuries to those three can happen again. But I'm going to be optimistic and say we'll get a full season out of Syndergaard and Familia this year. With Cespedes, 140 games...if he gives us that, and I think he can, we'll be good. That's one trip to the DL. I'd like to think he's learned from last year and focusing on flexibility rather than bulk.

In comment 13832328 PhiPsi125 said:

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Automatic upgrade from TC without even stepping on the field yet. I'm overly optimistic about Callaway. Hard to say since nobody has seen him in action as a Manager yet but I like that he's taken an interest in the pitching. If he could just to the opposite of everything Collins did, we are in business.

I agree. I like that they went with a pitching coach given how critical starting pitching is their success. He seems smart, but who really knows at this point?

Simply because the other teams in the NL East are horrible outside of the Nats

In comment 13832322 NYG27 said:

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It's way to early to tell but what are everyone's thoughts on our new manager?

I think the NY media is going to love him. Because he just loves to talk.

In comment 13832452 Rflairr said:

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Simply because the other teams in the NL East are horrible outside of the Nats

The Braves and Phillies will be better teams this season. Neither are playoff teams but with several of their young players getting their first taste of MLB last season plus several top prospects on the way they will be much different than a year ago. The Marlins will most likely be the worst team in baseball.

guessing the Phillies are better than people expect.

Added Santana, Neshek, Hunter

Pitching could surprise with Nola, Eickhoff and what could be a very good BP

hard to come up with a scenario where the Mets finish in 4th. Some combination of Harvey/Matz/Wheeler/Lugo/Montero/Gsellmen are being counted on to pitch for 600 plus innings and to be effective.

The Mets at 80.5

The Yanks at 94

that hasn't already been covered. If many things go right, 90+ and if many things go wrong 75. I'm not going into a season pessimistically, so I'll say 88 and either getting or being close to the WC.

In comment 13832518 DonQuixote said:

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The Mets at 80.5 The Yanks at 94

I'd feel much more comfortable betting the over on NYY.

They're going to score a TON of runs, lights out BP and their starters should be decent. I think they win 97-98 games.

The Mets are just too volatile.

Like we've all said - with the right breaks and everything going right, hey - maybe they hit 90.

But with our typically crappy luck, it's probably more likely we see 75.

...None. Why? The organization is a mess and the product on the field almost always reflects the franchise.

They have waaaaaay too many health question marks. Too many things have to go right to have a competitive season...

New York Mets
✔
@Mets

We have signed OF @UpperDekker to a minor league contract with an invite to major league #SpringTraining. #Mets

In comment 13832673 arcarsenal said:

Quote:

In comment 13832518 DonQuixote said: Quote: The Mets at 80.5 The Yanks at 94 I'd feel much more comfortable betting the over on NYY. They're going to score a TON of runs, lights out BP and their starters should be decent. I think they win 97-98 games. The Mets are just too volatile. Like we've all said - with the right breaks and everything going right, hey - maybe they hit 90. But with our typically crappy luck, it's probably more likely we see 75.

I don't know. 94 is a lot of wins. The Yankees can still have a really good year and not hit the over on that. They have some serious injury concerns to some of their best players too. Stanton gets hurt constantly. Tanaka still has a UCL tear. Judge's shoulder is a concern with his huge frame and he even admitted that it was an issue last year. I think I'd bet the under with them (not thinking they'll be bad, just that you need them to win 95 games to hit on betting the over).

hasn't hit 200 innings since 2015 (the last time Harvey did so.

In comment 13833094 DanMetroMan said:

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New York Mets ✔ @Mets We have signed OF @UpperDekker to a minor league contract with an invite to major league #SpringTraining. #Mets

So Blevins and MDD united, when MDD was once traded for Blevins.

Sandy loves those former Mets players.

In comment 13833110 Metnut said:

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I don't know. 94 is a lot of wins. The Yankees can still have a really good year and not hit the over on that. They have some serious injury concerns to some of their best players too. Stanton gets hurt constantly. Tanaka still has a UCL tear. Judge's shoulder is a concern with his huge frame and he even admitted that it was an issue last year. I think I'd bet the under with them (not thinking they'll be bad, just that you need them to win 95 games to hit on betting the over).

I agree. NYY has a chance to be special, but there are some question marks. How good is the starting pitching? Judge is going to have to learn how to stop chasing breaking balls in the dirt, Sanchez needs some consistency, and Stanton is always an injury risk. That said, if things break right for them, it's a 100-win team.

In comment 13833119 Section331 said:

Quote:

In comment 13833110 Metnut said: Quote: I don't know. 94 is a lot of wins. The Yankees can still have a really good year and not hit the over on that. They have some serious injury concerns to some of their best players too. Stanton gets hurt constantly. Tanaka still has a UCL tear. Judge's shoulder is a concern with his huge frame and he even admitted that it was an issue last year. I think I'd bet the under with them (not thinking they'll be bad, just that you need them to win 95 games to hit on betting the over). I agree. NYY has a chance to be special, but there are some question marks. How good is the starting pitching? Judge is going to have to learn how to stop chasing breaking balls in the dirt, Sanchez needs some consistency, and Stanton is always an injury risk. That said, if things break right for them, it's a 100-win team.

I feel the same way - their roster is really talented but it may take Boone a little time to figure out how everything fits around Stanton/Judge. Don't love their starting rotation but their BP is obviously really strong.

should be in top 10 of mets pathetic prospect list

In comment 13833155 spike said:

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should be in top 10 of mets pathetic prospect list

he is, on almost every list. As for BP HR's he's 5'9 210, if he can't yank a few in BP there are problems.

If Fred Wilpon is so hated by Mets fans. Why? WHY are they walking past spee freakin gammons and asking Fred for his autograph!?!?!?!?

In comment 13833247 Shecky said:

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If Fred Wilpon is so hated by Mets fans. Why? WHY are they walking past spee freakin gammons and asking Fred for his autograph!?!?!?!?

Not sure I understand this post.

I don't hate Fred, I don't even know him, but I don't think he's a great owner and I do believe the Mets could do better with more committed owners, whose goal is for a world championship first and foremost. And I don't mean "buy" a championship with free agent signings, I mean run your organization in a manner from front office, admin, scouting, minor leagues, etc. all with the same goals and philosophy to help achieve the major league team on-field goals.

In comment 13833247 Shecky said:

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If Fred Wilpon is so hated by Mets fans. Why? WHY are they walking past spee freakin gammons and asking Fred for his autograph!?!?!?!?

Come on Sheck, like people are clamoring for Peter Gammons autograph? Who cares? Fred's record speaks for itself - an average of 80 wins per year since he bought the team, with no championships and a whopping 3 playoff appearances in 16 years.

I agree with pj, I have no hatred for the guy, I don't know him, but he's been a mediocre owner, at best, in a premium market - regardless of who wants his autograph.

I need to see how the starting pitchers look. There�s also still a lot of free agents available and if the SP look awful you still might still see a Cashner or a Jaime Garcia brought in.

No surprise to anyone I�m sure but I like this team. It�s loaded with talent. Some of that talent is trying to come back from injury (Conforto) and some of that talent is raw and young (Rosario) and we don�t know how it�s going to go but I�m excited to find out.

I once met David Cone in a bar in New Haven CT with a group of my friends. Split between Yankees and Mets fans. This was in 1995 or maybe early 1996 after the 1995 season when I guess the Yankees still hadn't decided between who to keep of Cone or Black Jack McDowell.

anyway, we hung out with him for a while, great guy, told us a bunch of Yankees and Mets stories and generally just fit in (I was surprised how short he was - doesn't seem 6' 1") and it was getting late and he was going to leave and said do you guys want autographs? I'm not an autograph person, but said yeah, sure and my buddies did too, and no one had anything to sign so I reached in my wallet and had all 20's, and I asked Cone to sign one. My buddies did the same.

he said, what are you nuts, don't waste a $20 bill on me, don't you guys have any 1's? None of us did, so he pulled out 4 or 5 ones from his own wallet signed them and gave them to us.

I used mine for pizza across the street, but the point is I wouldn't let Peter Gammons sign a one dollar bill, that's the interest level I, and I believe most fans, have in Peter Gammons autograph. Bad comparison.

In comment 13833372 pjcas18 said:

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I once met David Cone in a bar in New Haven CT with a group of my friends. Split between Yankees and Mets fans. This was in 1995 or maybe early 1996 after the 1995 season when I guess the Yankees still hadn't decided between who to keep of Cone or Black Jack McDowell. anyway, we hung out with him for a while, great guy, told us a bunch of Yankees and Mets stories and generally just fit in (I was surprised how short he was - doesn't seem 6' 1") and it was getting late and he was going to leave and said do you guys want autographs? I'm not an autograph person, but said yeah, sure and my buddies did too, and no one had anything to sign so I reached in my wallet and had all 20's, and I asked Cone to sign one. My buddies did the same. he said, what are you nuts, don't waste a $20 bill on me, don't you guys have any 1's? None of us did, so he pulled out 4 or 5 ones from his own wallet signed them and gave them to us. I used mine for pizza across the street, but the point is I wouldn't let Peter Gammons sign a one dollar bill, that's the interest level I, and I believe most fans, have in Peter Gammons autograph. Bad comparison.

LOL. A penny, maybe?

In comment 13832024 Eric on Li said:

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the vegas over/under is probably exactly right, but I'll optimistically take the over on that. To me the season comes down to basically 3 things: 1. General health - Cespedes/Thor/JDG/Familia need to stay healthy. Hopefully the checks to the new director of high performance cleared. 2. Starting pitching - Can someone step up and be a consistent #3 behind JDG/Thor? 3. Does anyone surprise? Last year heading into ST we thought Conforto would start the year in Vegas and he ended up the team's lone all star. Can Rosario, Lagares, Nimmo, Smith, AGon, or even 1 of the catchers have an unexpected breakout? Not much is expected of that group, just 1 of them having a 4-5 war season like Lagares did in 2014 would be huge. On the pitching side the group would include Montero, Gsellman, Lugo, and the litany of BP arms. If they get #1 I think they can comfortably hit 80 wins. If they get #1 and #2 they can be in the wild card mix, which is what my prediction would be. To compete with the Nats they'd need the best case scenario of all 3.

This is an excellent post. I agree with this 100%. The only thing that makes it confusing is your last sentence(and it wasn�t your intent). Saying we we need a best case scenario across the board makes it sound like we would need everything to go right which sounds impossible. However, all 3 of your points are already hedged. You aren�t saying the whole team has to stay healthy. You�re saying our top 4 core guys do (true for most teams). You aren�t saying Harvey, Matz, and Wheeler all have to bounce back and claim the 3 spot. You are saying one does. Finally, you aren�t saying we need an unexpected breakouts from Rosario, Smith, the catchers, ect. You are saying we need a breakout from one of them. I actually agree with this completely and don�t think it�s unreasonable to expect all three. I even agree with the win/loss record in relation to this.

but if he's healthy this is the kind of transaction I'd be interested in:

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Jon Heyman‏Verified account @JonHeyman With about 15 teams confirmed to watch Tim Lincecum�s showcase today in Seattle, it�s likely that as many as 20 may attend

it's unlikely Harvey returns to form and stays healthy

it's unlikely Matz stays healthy since he never has

it's unlikely Wheeler stays healthy since he hasn't since 2014

other than Rosario none of those guys I listed is even a likely every day starter - and a Rosario "breakout" is at best 50-50

So while there are enough guys in each group that it's easy to say "1 of those guys will step up", there's still nobody likely to do so. But that's why they play the games and why we root as fans - because unlikely things happen all the time. My biggest source of optimism this year is that with Callaway/Eiland/new performance team I feel they actively did something to improve the odds of the pitchers succeeding. Not signing Reed is the only thing I'd point to as a miss in trying to improve the pitching staff.

We need someone to have a breakout year in the worst way...

Rosario, one of the catchers... I don't know if I can really put Nimmo here...

But what guys like Judge and Bellinger did for their teams last year made such a huge difference. I'm not expecting that type of breakout from any of these guys but just a much higher production level than we had expected from a player or two could really change things.

Even a guy like Jose Ramirez in CLE last year - that guy really became an excellent player and he's not mentioned often.

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On SB Nation, John Sickels announced his top 20 prospects in the New York Mets farm system. As you will see below, Sickels gives the majority of these prospects a C+ grade. To that end, Sickels joins other minor league analysts in his not being bullish on the Mets farm system: #1 SS Andres Gimenez Grade: B/B+ MMN Rank: 1 #2 LHP David Peterson Grade: B/B+ MMN Rank: 2 #3 1B Peter Alonso Grade B-/B MMN Rank: 3 #4 3B Mark Vientos Grade: B- MMN Rank: 4 #5 SS/2B Luis Guillorme Grade: B- MMN Rank: 10 #6 LHP Thomas Szapucki Grade: B-/C+ MMN Rank: 5 #7 RHP Chris Flexen Grade: B-/C+ MMN Rank: 7 #8 RHP Marcos Molina Grade: B-/C+ MMN Rank: 15 #9 OF Desmond Lindsay Grade: C+/B- MMN Rank: 8 #10 C Tomas Nido Grade: C+ MMN Rank: 9 #11 RHP Corey Oswalt Grade: C+ MMN Rank: 12 #12 3B David Thompson Grade: C+ MMN Rank: 20 #13 RHP Jamie Callahan Grade: C+ MMN Rank: 30 #14 RHP Tyler Bashlor Grade: C+ MMN Rank: 14 #15 RHP Gerson Bautista Grade: C+ MMN Rank: 16 #16 SS Ronny Mauricio Grade: C+ MMN Rank: 11 #17 1B/3B Jhoan Urena Grade: C+ MMN Rank: 32 #18 LHP Anthony Kay Grade: C+ MMN Rank: 13 #19 RHP Jordan Humphreys Grade: C+ MMN Rank: 18 #20 RHP Justin Dunn Grade: C+ MMN Rank: 6

Link from mets minors - ( New Window )

That's one ugly list.

Yikes.

list and dumb writeups.

In comment 13833452 arcarsenal said:

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We need someone to have a breakout year in the worst way... Rosario, one of the catchers... I don't know if I can really put Nimmo here... But what guys like Judge and Bellinger did for their teams last year made such a huge difference. I'm not expecting that type of breakout from any of these guys but just a much higher production level than we had expected from a player or two could really change things. Even a guy like Jose Ramirez in CLE last year - that guy really became an excellent player and he's not mentioned often.

Obviously Rosario is the guy who has that potential and if he can hit and get on base enough to take control of the leadoff spot that would have a massive impact on the entire lineup. If he can post an OBP around .330 (about 30 points higher than steamer projection) that would be huge.

It's kind of interesting how there's not a ton of hype around him even among Met fans. We're all pretty much expecting him to hit 8th whereas Lindor for example has pretty much hit 1/2/3 since day 1. He has less than 10 total AB's in his entire career below the 3 spot. I'm glad there aren't high expectations for Rosario but considering he was the #1 prospect in all baseball it's definitely not impossible that he's ready for more than the 8th spot pretty early on.

In comment 13833502 DanMetroMan said:

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list and dumb writeups.

Sickels always has a different view of prospects - he tends to favor stats over tools. I do appreciate that he is easy to talk to and willing to discuss differing viewpoints without getting defensive.

was so much more polished than Rosario that it's hard to compare. The surprise with Lindor was the power. The glove was the best (or close to it) for any SS prospect this decade, they knew he could hit, didn't strike out, the power was the surprise.

In comment 13833551 Eric on Li said:

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In comment 13833452 arcarsenal said: Quote: We need someone to have a breakout year in the worst way... Rosario, one of the catchers... I don't know if I can really put Nimmo here... But what guys like Judge and Bellinger did for their teams last year made such a huge difference. I'm not expecting that type of breakout from any of these guys but just a much higher production level than we had expected from a player or two could really change things. Even a guy like Jose Ramirez in CLE last year - that guy really became an excellent player and he's not mentioned often. Obviously Rosario is the guy who has that potential and if he can hit and get on base enough to take control of the leadoff spot that would have a massive impact on the entire lineup. If he can post an OBP around .330 (about 30 points higher than steamer projection) that would be huge. It's kind of interesting how there's not a ton of hype around him even among Met fans. We're all pretty much expecting him to hit 8th whereas Lindor for example has pretty much hit 1/2/3 since day 1. He has less than 10 total AB's in his entire career below the 3 spot. I'm glad there aren't high expectations for Rosario but considering he was the #1 prospect in all baseball it's definitely not impossible that he's ready for more than the 8th spot pretty early on.

If Conforto was 100% now, I think I'd be a lot more excited.

I just can't shake the feeling that he's going to be hampered all year and just never get himself right.

Rosario can absolutely be the guy who has a breakout year - he'd be most likely, IMO. We need a positional prospect to come up and become a star so badly. It can happen with Conforto or Rosario - I just worry about Conforto staying healthy.

In comment 13833502 DanMetroMan said:

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list and dumb writeups.

The Dunn ranking is odd but in the comments he said all the C+ guys were basically interchangable and at one point he had him up at 10.

In comment 13833587 Eric on Li said:

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In comment 13833502 DanMetroMan said: Quote: list and dumb writeups. The Dunn ranking is odd but in the comments he said all the C+ guys were basically interchangable and at one point he had him up at 10.

Anthony Kay at 18? Really? Law had him #6, Dunn at 3. Guillorme as a lock top 5 guy for him is absurd as well. Law had him #13, BA had him 10 and over at NYFS we had him 8th.

In comment 13833563 DanMetroMan said:

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was so much more polished than Rosario that it's hard to compare. The surprise with Lindor was the power. The glove was the best (or close to it) for any SS prospect this decade, they knew he could hit, didn't strike out, the power was the surprise.

Yeah I know Callaway made the comparison but I don't think it's fair to compare anyone to a guy who was that good right away. I guess my point is just that even if that's the absolute best case and likely unrealistic, there's might be a lot of realistic middle ground outcomes between that and just hitting 8th. I'm personally hoping he can just post an OBP around .330 because I think that's good enough to warrant batting leadoff.

In comment 13833445 Eric on Li said:

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it's unlikely Harvey returns to form and stays healthy it's unlikely Matz stays healthy since he never has it's unlikely Wheeler stays healthy since he hasn't since 2014 other than Rosario none of those guys I listed is even a likely every day starter - and a Rosario "breakout" is at best 50-50 So while there are enough guys in each group that it's easy to say "1 of those guys will step up", there's still nobody likely to do so. But that's why they play the games and why we root as fans - because unlikely things happen all the time. My biggest source of optimism this year is that with Callaway/Eiland/new performance team I feel they actively did something to improve the odds of the pitchers succeeding. Not signing Reed is the only thing I'd point to as a miss in trying to improve the pitching staff.

As far as the starters, again, any of them by themselves? Yes. All of them together having one emerge or bounce back? Completely different. And yes a 24 year old Gsellman, ect can be added to that group. We have 6 guys competing for 3 spots. As for breakouts... every year somebody breaks out. It doesn�t have to be Rosario. It could be Nimmo or Corey Oswalt for all we know. I think �one� breakout is VERY likely actually.

In comment 13833594 Eric on Li said:

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In comment 13833563 DanMetroMan said: Quote: was so much more polished than Rosario that it's hard to compare. The surprise with Lindor was the power. The glove was the best (or close to it) for any SS prospect this decade, they knew he could hit, didn't strike out, the power was the surprise. Yeah I know Callaway made the comparison but I don't think it's fair to compare anyone to a guy who was that good right away. I guess my point is just that even if that's the absolute best case and likely unrealistic, there's might be a lot of realistic middle ground outcomes between that and just hitting 8th. I'm personally hoping he can just post an OBP around .330 because I think that's good enough to warrant batting leadoff.

Not knocking Callaway but it's clear he plays fast and furious with the hyperbole. What exactly is he going to say "Lindor is better but Rosario is very talented?". Rosario could be very, very good but Lindor looked 100% ready to come in and at least produce (and play ++ defense). Rosario is very raw for a top guy (not even knocking him) but to go from swinging at THAT many pitches out of the zone to being Lindor (or close) right away is probably pretty unlikely to happen. But who knows? The world expected Swanson to be a beast this year and he stunk

on expectations.

In comment 13833607 DanMetroMan said:

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In comment 13833594 Eric on Li said: Quote: In comment 13833563 DanMetroMan said: Quote: was so much more polished than Rosario that it's hard to compare. The surprise with Lindor was the power. The glove was the best (or close to it) for any SS prospect this decade, they knew he could hit, didn't strike out, the power was the surprise. Yeah I know Callaway made the comparison but I don't think it's fair to compare anyone to a guy who was that good right away. I guess my point is just that even if that's the absolute best case and likely unrealistic, there's might be a lot of realistic middle ground outcomes between that and just hitting 8th. I'm personally hoping he can just post an OBP around .330 because I think that's good enough to warrant batting leadoff. Not knocking Callaway but it's clear he plays fast and furious with the hyperbole. What exactly is he going to say "Lindor is better but Rosario is very talented?". Rosario could be very, very good but Lindor looked 100% ready to come in and at least produce (and play ++ defense). Rosario is very raw for a top guy (not even knocking him) but to go from swinging at THAT many pitches out of the zone to being Lindor (or close) right away is probably pretty unlikely to happen. But who knows? The world expected Swanson to be a beast this year and he stunk

Exactly. Smaller first year sample, but Judge went from the interstate to the best hitter in baseball. Guys with elite tools can just have it 'click' sometimes.

2 for 18 with Baltimore, had ZERO interest in him anywhere near that.

In comment 13833665 DanMetroMan said:

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2 for 18 with Baltimore, had ZERO interest in him anywhere near that.

Solid deal for Cashner. Wasn't a fit here at anywhere near that price. Would've loved to add Bud Norris for the price he signed at.

Garcia/Vargas. Minor league deals please...
Link - ( New Window )

I wouldn't hate Vargas either, he had a good year last year. Either one would add a lefty to the mix who can at least make 10-20 starts (or get cut) if need be.

Proves the market for pitchers never really crashed. Guys are still getting big bucks this offseason regardless of how long they�ve been holding out.

In comment 13833735 Eric on Li said:

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I wouldn't hate Vargas either, he had a good year last year. Either one would add a lefty to the mix who can at least make 10-20 starts (or get cut) if need be.

I�m kind of hoping they will be available in 2 weeks still only because I�m frothing at the mouth to see how Harvey, Wheeler, Matz look with full offseasons, ect but they probably won�t be there still.

be blown away if Vargas settles for a minor league deal

In comment 13833737 ZGiants98 said:

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Proves the market for pitchers never really crashed. Guys are still getting big bucks this offseason regardless of how long they�ve been holding out.

He's still only getting paid as a SP good for 1.0 fWAR or so per season. In theory he's a significant upside play at that rate. I don't think people are going to have their minds blown if he puts up 4.0ish fWAR over the next 2 with a value of over 30 million.

In comment 13833754 DanMetroMan said:

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In comment 13833737 ZGiants98 said: Quote: Proves the market for pitchers never really crashed. Guys are still getting big bucks this offseason regardless of how long they�ve been holding out. He's still only getting paid as a SP good for 1.0 fWAR or so per season. In theory he's a significant upside play at that rate. I don't think people are going to have their minds blown if he puts up 4.0ish fWAR over the next 2 with a value of over 30 million.

True. I just think this late in the offseason you�d think costs would be dropping but Darvish, Cashner, ect are still getting pretty much what was expected all along. I really hate Cashner�s peripherals so I�m glad we stayed away.

Frazier is a 21 million AAV player. Just seems like the market for hitters has completely bottomed out (JD Martinez reportedly being offered a third of what he originally wanted) but pitchers are still getting fairly big bucks.

In comment 13833737 ZGiants98 said:

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Proves the market for pitchers never really crashed. Guys are still getting big bucks this offseason regardless of how long they�ve been holding out.

Nope and this is exactly why guys are waiting for better deals. They know once spring training begins that teams will be willing to offer more due to injury and poor performance.

In comment 13833761 ZGiants98 said:

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Frazier is a 21 million AAV player. Just seems like the market for hitters has completely bottomed out (JD Martinez reportedly being offered a third of what he originally wanted) but pitchers are still getting fairly big bucks.

Frazier is 32 years old. Based on his last 2 seasons he was worth 44 million however the expectation is a 32 year old is in decline or headed there. He's also a low average player which the market very rarely rewards.

didn't want Cashner at all but he's been league average 3 of the last 4 seasons. His K rate this year is a major, major red flag but as I said he very possibly gives the Orioles 4ish fWAR for their 18 million

worth noting the Orioles #3 starter before signing Cashner was... Gabriel Ynoa. So if Cashner is a paper weight so be it.

what a bust first rounder

In comment 13833790 spike said:

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what a bust first rounder

Still time to turn it around but yeah his 2017 was remarkably bad. Huge 2018 for him.

Only kidding, but wonder why TDA is playing 2B

Toronto 1 year 8 Garcia, excellent move at that price

In comment 13833887 DanMetroMan said:

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Toronto 1 year 8 Garcia, excellent move at that price

Absolutely, he is underrated and a very solid back of the rotation SP especially at that price.

When we couldve kept Reynolds as the cheap util guy so we can pay for a #3/4 starter

Just need to go bottom fishing for some failed starters to stash in AAA for the year.

In comment 13833935 Shecky said:

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Just need to go bottom fishing for some failed starters to stash in AAA for the year.

100% agree at this point.

In comment 13833935 Shecky said:

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Just need to go bottom fishing for some failed starters to stash in AAA for the year.

Lol, was there plenty of SP depth last season?

If 6 of our top 7 SPs go down. Who is out there you want the Mets to sign as depth today? Reality is, if what happened last year happens again, it�s a top ten draft pick again. I think that goes for any team, in any sport realistically.

Who do you want to see the Mets cut ties with today from the 40 man, in order to sign a player to a real contract? BBI whipping boy Matt Reynolds is already gone. So who gets cut?

Blew it and missed out. Sign a bunch of those types, if you can being the key. Sign 2 arms like that, a C like that, and a utility like that and call it a winter.

In comment 13833958 Shecky said:

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Who do you want to see the Mets cut ties with today from the 40 man, in order to sign a player to a real contract? BBI whipping boy Matt Reynolds is already gone. So who gets cut?

Jamie Callahan?