Im starting to get spring fever. We are halfway through February & spring training is kicking off. Despite the narrative of the Mets being cheap, they were actually one of the more active teams this offseason.
Vegas has the over/under win total at 80.5 which depends mostly on health. Also, the performance of Dom Smith & Rosario are crucial.
How optimistic are we fellow Met fans?
Realistically, they probably end up at 82 and are .500 team
But theyll certainly spin it that way!
1B: do you expect Smith or Gonzalez to win the job? Has Smith trimmed his sloppy physique this offseason?
OF: any chance of a Nimmo/Lagares platoon until Conforto comes back?
Conforto: Met (bad) luck aside - Do they fear long term damage?
Thor: has he lost some of the added muscle from last year?
Harvey: with the injuries, has he likely lost (permanently) some of his front line pitching stuff? Is he upside more of a "3" now?
How is the bullpen (projected)?
Thor: has he slimmed down or
It stats with pitching. If the fab five can start 25-30 games each, they have a shot at the WC, then who knows? Syndergard is a beast and DeGromm is poised to have a big year.
Cautiously optimistic- 88 wins and sneak in to WC.
1B: do you expect Smith or Gonzalez to win the job? Has Smith trimmed his sloppy physique this offseason?
OF: any chance of a Nimmo/Lagares platoon until Conforto comes back?
Conforto: Met (bad) luck aside - Do they fear long term damage?
Thor: has he lost some of the added muscle from last year?
Harvey: with the injuries, has he likely lost (permanently) some of his front line pitching stuff? Is he upside more of a "3" now?
How is the bullpen (projected)?
Thor: has he slimmed down or
Sandy already said Lagares is the starting CF, no platoon. #3 starter for Harvey is probably shooting high (anything is possible of course). Smith is in shape as of right now, Gonzalez the clear favorite to start however.
Did you see it? I forget to who, SF maybe for Panik?
didn't make much sense to me, I prefer Flores to Panik, but I know I saw it and not from a random fan, from a media guy.
Its very scary how dependent this team is on players coming back from injuries though. Conforto, Cespedes, Harvey, Matz, Wheeler are all big pieces that have a TON of question marks right now. Those players will make or break this team's postseason hopes.
If most come back and stay healthy for the majority of the season, they are on the plus side of 85, if not, they could fall well short.
BTW I love the start of baseball season especially after a miserable football year, and currently a miserable hockey year.
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The Mets' early inclination is to make Juan Lagares the everyday CF in Conforto's absence because of defense. Plus, Brandon Nimmo has been very good off the bench. Hence the search for a leadoff option other than Nimmo:
Did you see it? I forget to who, SF maybe for Panik?
didn't make much sense to me, I prefer Flores to Panik, but I know I saw it and not from a random fan, from a media guy.
The rumor comes from Mike Francesa (who is actually close with Jeff) however he's the one who said "maybe for Panik". Sounds like utter BS.
Best case scenario - Thor and deGrom have big years, combine for 35+ wins, Matz gets 15, and Harvey and 5th starter get 15-20 wins, then we're looking at a 90-95 win team. Everything would have to break right for that to happen, IMO.
Another big part will be AJ Ramos setting up Familia his pitching will determine at least 10 games this year. He absolutely can not allow his first man to reach the base paths. Familia is a completely different player with inherited runners
I expect Thor Degrom Bruce & Frazier to continue to be solid.
Cespedes & Harvey will be the wildcards as is A-Gonz
1. General health - Cespedes/Thor/JDG/Familia need to stay healthy. Hopefully the checks to the new director of high performance cleared.
2. Starting pitching - Can someone step up and be a consistent #3 behind JDG/Thor?
3. Does anyone surprise? Last year heading into ST we thought Conforto would start the year in Vegas and he ended up the team's lone all star. Can Rosario, Lagares, Nimmo, Smith, AGon, or even 1 of the catchers have an unexpected breakout? Not much is expected of that group, just 1 of them having a 4-5 war season like Lagares did in 2014 would be huge. On the pitching side the group would include Montero, Gsellman, Lugo, and the litany of BP arms.
If they get #1 I think they can comfortably hit 80 wins. If they get #1 and #2 they can be in the wild card mix, which is what my prediction would be. To compete with the Nats they'd need the best case scenario of all 3.
Lets go METS
I like Panik but I don't see how he fits unless they dump Cabrera on someone, which seems extremely unlikely.
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Giants beat writer is questioning how they can even fit Watson into their payroll so Lagares for Panik doesn't even make sense in that regard. I don't even particularly like Lagares but I wouldn't do that deal.
I like Panik but I don't see how he fits unless they dump Cabrera on someone, which seems extremely unlikely.
Was so bad in the field in 2017 that it would be a red flag that the Giants have shopped him all off-season and bat while good doesn't warrant the gamble in my view.
Dan respect your opinion on this board so I'll just ask
Who is the starting first baseman on this team this time next year?
Next years FA class is weak, A-Gonz will prob be gone, if Dominic Smith doesnt get traded or workout it has to be Bruce right?
Wilmer -1
Cabrera -6
Considering Panik has been league average by fWAR the last 2 seasons, I don't see him as much of an upgrade at the expense of an EXTREMELY thin OF. Yeah if they somehow turned Cabrera into a solid OF sure but that's beyond unlikely.
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In comment 13832006 DanMetroMan said:
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Giants beat writer is questioning how they can even fit Watson into their payroll so Lagares for Panik doesn't even make sense in that regard. I don't even particularly like Lagares but I wouldn't do that deal.
I like Panik but I don't see how he fits unless they dump Cabrera on someone, which seems extremely unlikely.
Was so bad in the field in 2017 that it would be a red flag that the Giants have shopped him all off-season and bat while good doesn't warrant the gamble in my view.
Yeah I would think this org has learned their lesson on IF'ers with back injuries.
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to my head today... 83 wins but upside for more and downside to be fucking awful.
Dan respect your opinion on this board so I'll just ask
Who is the starting first baseman on this team this time next year?
Next years FA class is weak, A-Gonz will prob be gone, if Dominic Smith doesnt get traded or workout it has to be Bruce right?
I'll go with Dom Smith with Alonso breathing down his neck (that might be optimistic). Bruce is of course a possibility however they don't have a 2019 OF in the minors so it's not as if it's a clear solution.
Until some of the injury prone players can prove they can stay healthy and produce, hard to expect more wins than that.
I fully expect another rash of injuries and another year out of the postseason.
78 wins.
And I feel the Mets will sell at the deadline again and stock pile more middle relievers with little upside.
And I feel the Mets will sell at the deadline again and stock pile more middle relievers with little upside.
I will say somehow when Sandy is "honest" it's almost more deflating. 1. Admitting the sell-off was in part an attempt to show Fred they could dump payroll if need be (didn't explicitly say they took less but 2 different sources confirmed Tyler O'Neill was in fact discussed for Duda but money killed it) 2. Admitting the farm isn't very good. I'd almost prefer he bullshit me here (#2 in particular) lol
Absolutely not expecting this but if we get the old Matt Harvey back or something close, it would make a MASSIVE difference.
I think it would benefit the Mets most of Matz was the guy who put together a full, solid year of the question mark SP's we have - but I think Harvey is the guy most likely to do it.
Absolutely not expecting this but if we get the old Matt Harvey back or something close, it would make a MASSIVE difference.
I think it would benefit the Mets most of Matz was the guy who put together a full, solid year of the question mark SP's we have - but I think Harvey is the guy most likely to do it.
Of course Harvey will figure it out this year, and pitch with CY Young capability. Just in time for becoming a top pitching FA on the market.
In all seriousness if this happens the Mets organization are going to have to make a big decision at the trade deadline
Not going to play this game this year.
If they are healthy and well coached, they should be in play for a wild card. And it sucks that the WC is the bar that is set for this team.
More than anything...I'm just hoping that the team is lucky. Because that's the only formula to winning that the Mets excel at LOL.
2017:
ARZ - 93
COL - 87
2016:
NYM: 87
SF: 87
2015:
PIT: 98
CHC: 97
2014:
PIT: 88
SF: 88
2013:
PIT: 94
CIN: 90
So, 85 wins could get you close or have you almost 10 games out. Really depends on the season.
85 wins is like smelling dinner but not getting close to the kitchen.
85 wins is like smelling dinner but not getting close to the kitchen.
That's an average of 90.9 wins for the WC teams.
2017:
ARZ - 93
COL - 87
2016:
NYM: 87
SF: 87
2015:
PIT: 98
CHC: 97
2014:
PIT: 88
SF: 88
2013:
PIT: 94
CIN: 90
So, 85 wins could get you close or have you almost 10 games out. Really depends on the season.
Thanks for pulling that out. Didn't realize how lucky the Mets were to get the wild card in 2016 after winning only 87 games.
Giants - We're going to the Super Bowl. We know what happened.
NYRangers - We're a deep tourney team and if the "King" gets hot, maybe a Cup. Open the season like 2-9, struggling and now in a sell mode.
NYKnicks - Jackson gone, no more triangle, influx of young (kind of) talent - possible playoff team. Now selling (if they had anything to sell) and KZing out until 2019.
I'm taking the under and saying 71 wins and a fourth place finish right in front of the broken Marlin team.
85 wins is like smelling dinner but not getting close to the kitchen.
Yeah, definitely - not disagreeing with you at all. To be in the conversation @ 85 wins, we'd have to be pretty fortunate.
Gotta get to 90 to have a shot, IMO.
Giants - We're going to the Super Bowl. We know what happened.
NYRangers - We're a deep tourney team and if the "King" gets hot, maybe a Cup. Open the season like 2-9, struggling and now in a sell mode.
NYKnicks - Jackson gone, no more triangle, influx of young (kind of) talent - possible playoff team. Now selling (if they had anything to sell) and KZing out until 2019.
I'm taking the under and saying 71 wins and a fourth place finish right in front of the broken Marlin team.
I'm a fan of the same 4 teams...
Has not been a fun year for us.
He talks the talk but other than that who could really form any opinion?
Automatic upgrade from TC without even stepping on the field yet. I'm overly optimistic about Callaway.
Hard to say since nobody has seen him in action as a Manager yet but I like that he's taken an interest in the pitching. If he could just to the opposite of everything Collins did, we are in business.
No way to know how he's going to do as of now, but I like that he has the background he has with pitching because it's really going to be the key for the Mets as they are constructed now.
For this team to succeed, we HAVE to get our rotation back to being the strength it was a couple years ago.
Callaway has said all of the right things so far and I am on board. We'll see how he manages when the games count.
It sucks that the early schedule is reasonably tough, if there were ever a team that could use a hot start it's this one.
I've read more than one person write that the Mets best off-season acquisition is the manager.
Yet, you also hear so called experts constantly tell you a baseball manager has an impact on a limited # of W's/L's.
I believe that's a flawed way to look at things (for a contender). When you look back how many teams missed the wild card or the division by a game or two.
To me that the difference a manager can make. Sure when you're not a contender who cares, a manager maybe can't bridge the gap between 70 wins and 90, but between 86 and 90? Perhaps.
I think with everyone healthy (yeah right), Callaway will feel immediate pressure due to expectations.