Im starting to get spring fever. We are halfway through February & spring training is kicking off. Despite the narrative of the Mets being cheap, they were actually one of the more active teams this offseason.
Vegas has the over/under win total at 80.5 which depends mostly on health. Also, the performance of Dom Smith & Rosario are crucial.
How optimistic are we fellow Met fans?
If he can follow through on this, it would be quite a change from Terry Collins who ran certain bullpen pitchers into the ground each year.
2017:
ARZ - 93
COL - 87
2016:
NYM: 87
SF: 87
2015:
PIT: 98
CHC: 97
2014:
PIT: 88
SF: 88
2013:
PIT: 94
CIN: 90
So, 85 wins could get you close or have you almost 10 games out. Really depends on the season.
Interesting post.
I fully expect another rash of injuries and another year out of the postseason.
78 wins.
It does seem like things would have to line up just right for the Met's to make a run...
Obviously, injuries to those three can happen again. But I'm going to be optimistic and say we'll get a full season out of Syndergaard and Familia this year. With Cespedes, 140 games...if he gives us that, and I think he can, we'll be good. That's one trip to the DL. I'd like to think he's learned from last year and focusing on flexibility rather than bulk.
Automatic upgrade from TC without even stepping on the field yet. I'm overly optimistic about Callaway.
Hard to say since nobody has seen him in action as a Manager yet but I like that he's taken an interest in the pitching. If he could just to the opposite of everything Collins did, we are in business.
I agree. I like that they went with a pitching coach given how critical starting pitching is their success. He seems smart, but who really knows at this point?
I think the NY media is going to love him. Because he just loves to talk.
The Braves and Phillies will be better teams this season. Neither are playoff teams but with several of their young players getting their first taste of MLB last season plus several top prospects on the way they will be much different than a year ago. The Marlins will most likely be the worst team in baseball.
Added Santana, Neshek, Hunter
Pitching could surprise with Nola, Eickhoff and what could be a very good BP
The Yanks at 94
The Yanks at 94
I'd feel much more comfortable betting the over on NYY.
They're going to score a TON of runs, lights out BP and their starters should be decent. I think they win 97-98 games.
The Mets are just too volatile.
Like we've all said - with the right breaks and everything going right, hey - maybe they hit 90.
But with our typically crappy luck, it's probably more likely we see 75.
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@Mets
We have signed OF @UpperDekker to a minor league contract with an invite to major league #SpringTraining. #Mets
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The Mets at 80.5
The Yanks at 94
I'd feel much more comfortable betting the over on NYY.
They're going to score a TON of runs, lights out BP and their starters should be decent. I think they win 97-98 games.
The Mets are just too volatile.
Like we've all said - with the right breaks and everything going right, hey - maybe they hit 90.
But with our typically crappy luck, it's probably more likely we see 75.
I don't know. 94 is a lot of wins. The Yankees can still have a really good year and not hit the over on that. They have some serious injury concerns to some of their best players too. Stanton gets hurt constantly. Tanaka still has a UCL tear. Judge's shoulder is a concern with his huge frame and he even admitted that it was an issue last year. I think I'd bet the under with them (not thinking they'll be bad, just that you need them to win 95 games to hit on betting the over).
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@Mets
We have signed OF @UpperDekker to a minor league contract with an invite to major league #SpringTraining. #Mets
So Blevins and MDD united, when MDD was once traded for Blevins.
Sandy loves those former Mets players.
I don't know. 94 is a lot of wins. The Yankees can still have a really good year and not hit the over on that. They have some serious injury concerns to some of their best players too. Stanton gets hurt constantly. Tanaka still has a UCL tear. Judge's shoulder is a concern with his huge frame and he even admitted that it was an issue last year. I think I'd bet the under with them (not thinking they'll be bad, just that you need them to win 95 games to hit on betting the over).
I agree. NYY has a chance to be special, but there are some question marks. How good is the starting pitching? Judge is going to have to learn how to stop chasing breaking balls in the dirt, Sanchez needs some consistency, and Stanton is always an injury risk. That said, if things break right for them, it's a 100-win team.
Take it FWIW but Luis Guillorme has homered multiple times in batting practice ;) #mets #SpringTraining
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I don't know. 94 is a lot of wins. The Yankees can still have a really good year and not hit the over on that. They have some serious injury concerns to some of their best players too. Stanton gets hurt constantly. Tanaka still has a UCL tear. Judge's shoulder is a concern with his huge frame and he even admitted that it was an issue last year. I think I'd bet the under with them (not thinking they'll be bad, just that you need them to win 95 games to hit on betting the over).
I agree. NYY has a chance to be special, but there are some question marks. How good is the starting pitching? Judge is going to have to learn how to stop chasing breaking balls in the dirt, Sanchez needs some consistency, and Stanton is always an injury risk. That said, if things break right for them, it's a 100-win team.
I feel the same way - their roster is really talented but it may take Boone a little time to figure out how everything fits around Stanton/Judge. Don't love their starting rotation but their BP is obviously really strong.
he is, on almost every list. As for BP HR's he's 5'9 210, if he can't yank a few in BP there are problems.
Not sure I understand this post.
I don't hate Fred, I don't even know him, but I don't think he's a great owner and I do believe the Mets could do better with more committed owners, whose goal is for a world championship first and foremost. And I don't mean "buy" a championship with free agent signings, I mean run your organization in a manner from front office, admin, scouting, minor leagues, etc. all with the same goals and philosophy to help achieve the major league team on-field goals.
Come on Sheck, like people are clamoring for Peter Gammons autograph? Who cares? Fred's record speaks for itself - an average of 80 wins per year since he bought the team, with no championships and a whopping 3 playoff appearances in 16 years.
I agree with pj, I have no hatred for the guy, I don't know him, but he's been a mediocre owner, at best, in a premium market - regardless of who wants his autograph.
No surprise to anyone Im sure but I like this team. Its loaded with talent. Some of that talent is trying to come back from injury (Conforto) and some of that talent is raw and young (Rosario) and we dont know how its going to go but Im excited to find out.
anyway, we hung out with him for a while, great guy, told us a bunch of Yankees and Mets stories and generally just fit in (I was surprised how short he was - doesn't seem 6' 1") and it was getting late and he was going to leave and said do you guys want autographs? I'm not an autograph person, but said yeah, sure and my buddies did too, and no one had anything to sign so I reached in my wallet and had all 20's, and I asked Cone to sign one. My buddies did the same.
he said, what are you nuts, don't waste a $20 bill on me, don't you guys have any 1's? None of us did, so he pulled out 4 or 5 ones from his own wallet signed them and gave them to us.
I used mine for pizza across the street, but the point is I wouldn't let Peter Gammons sign a one dollar bill, that's the interest level I, and I believe most fans, have in Peter Gammons autograph. Bad comparison.
anyway, we hung out with him for a while, great guy, told us a bunch of Yankees and Mets stories and generally just fit in (I was surprised how short he was - doesn't seem 6' 1") and it was getting late and he was going to leave and said do you guys want autographs? I'm not an autograph person, but said yeah, sure and my buddies did too, and no one had anything to sign so I reached in my wallet and had all 20's, and I asked Cone to sign one. My buddies did the same.
he said, what are you nuts, don't waste a $20 bill on me, don't you guys have any 1's? None of us did, so he pulled out 4 or 5 ones from his own wallet signed them and gave them to us.
I used mine for pizza across the street, but the point is I wouldn't let Peter Gammons sign a one dollar bill, that's the interest level I, and I believe most fans, have in Peter Gammons autograph. Bad comparison.
LOL. A penny, maybe?
1. General health - Cespedes/Thor/JDG/Familia need to stay healthy. Hopefully the checks to the new director of high performance cleared.
2. Starting pitching - Can someone step up and be a consistent #3 behind JDG/Thor?
3. Does anyone surprise? Last year heading into ST we thought Conforto would start the year in Vegas and he ended up the team's lone all star. Can Rosario, Lagares, Nimmo, Smith, AGon, or even 1 of the catchers have an unexpected breakout? Not much is expected of that group, just 1 of them having a 4-5 war season like Lagares did in 2014 would be huge. On the pitching side the group would include Montero, Gsellman, Lugo, and the litany of BP arms.
If they get #1 I think they can comfortably hit 80 wins. If they get #1 and #2 they can be in the wild card mix, which is what my prediction would be. To compete with the Nats they'd need the best case scenario of all 3.
This is an excellent post. I agree with this 100%. The only thing that makes it confusing is your last sentence(and it wasnt your intent). Saying we we need a best case scenario across the board makes it sound like we would need everything to go right which sounds impossible. However, all 3 of your points are already hedged. You arent saying the whole team has to stay healthy. Youre saying our top 4 core guys do (true for most teams). You arent saying Harvey, Matz, and Wheeler all have to bounce back and claim the 3 spot. You are saying one does. Finally, you arent saying we need an unexpected breakouts from Rosario, Smith, the catchers, ect. You are saying we need a breakout from one of them. I actually agree with this completely and dont think its unreasonable to expect all three. I even agree with the win/loss record in relation to this.
With about 15 teams confirmed to watch Tim Lincecums showcase today in Seattle, its likely that as many as 20 may attend
it's unlikely Matz stays healthy since he never has
it's unlikely Wheeler stays healthy since he hasn't since 2014
other than Rosario none of those guys I listed is even a likely every day starter - and a Rosario "breakout" is at best 50-50
So while there are enough guys in each group that it's easy to say "1 of those guys will step up", there's still nobody likely to do so. But that's why they play the games and why we root as fans - because unlikely things happen all the time. My biggest source of optimism this year is that with Callaway/Eiland/new performance team I feel they actively did something to improve the odds of the pitchers succeeding. Not signing Reed is the only thing I'd point to as a miss in trying to improve the pitching staff.
Rosario, one of the catchers... I don't know if I can really put Nimmo here...
But what guys like Judge and Bellinger did for their teams last year made such a huge difference. I'm not expecting that type of breakout from any of these guys but just a much higher production level than we had expected from a player or two could really change things.
Even a guy like Jose Ramirez in CLE last year - that guy really became an excellent player and he's not mentioned often.
On SB Nation, John Sickels announced his top 20 prospects in the New York Mets farm system. As you will see below, Sickels gives the majority of these prospects a C+ grade. To that end, Sickels joins other minor league analysts in his not being bullish on the Mets farm system:
#1 SS Andres Gimenez
Grade: B/B+
MMN Rank: 1
#2 LHP David Peterson
Grade: B/B+
MMN Rank: 2
#3 1B Peter Alonso
Grade B-/B
MMN Rank: 3
#4 3B Mark Vientos
Grade: B-
MMN Rank: 4
#5 SS/2B Luis Guillorme
Grade: B-
MMN Rank: 10
#6 LHP Thomas Szapucki
Grade: B-/C+
MMN Rank: 5
#7 RHP Chris Flexen
Grade: B-/C+
MMN Rank: 7
#8 RHP Marcos Molina
Grade: B-/C+
MMN Rank: 15
#9 OF Desmond Lindsay
Grade: C+/B-
MMN Rank: 8
#10 C Tomas Nido
Grade: C+
MMN Rank: 9
#11 RHP Corey Oswalt
Grade: C+
MMN Rank: 12
#12 3B David Thompson
Grade: C+
MMN Rank: 20
#13 RHP Jamie Callahan
Grade: C+
MMN Rank: 30
#14 RHP Tyler Bashlor
Grade: C+
MMN Rank: 14
#15 RHP Gerson Bautista
Grade: C+
MMN Rank: 16
#16 SS Ronny Mauricio
Grade: C+
MMN Rank: 11
#17 1B/3B Jhoan Urena
Grade: C+
MMN Rank: 32
#18 LHP Anthony Kay
Grade: C+
MMN Rank: 13
#19 RHP Jordan Humphreys
Grade: C+
MMN Rank: 18
#20 RHP Justin Dunn
Grade: C+
MMN Rank: 6
Link from mets minors - ( New Window )
Yikes.
Rosario, one of the catchers... I don't know if I can really put Nimmo here...
But what guys like Judge and Bellinger did for their teams last year made such a huge difference. I'm not expecting that type of breakout from any of these guys but just a much higher production level than we had expected from a player or two could really change things.
Even a guy like Jose Ramirez in CLE last year - that guy really became an excellent player and he's not mentioned often.
Obviously Rosario is the guy who has that potential and if he can hit and get on base enough to take control of the leadoff spot that would have a massive impact on the entire lineup. If he can post an OBP around .330 (about 30 points higher than steamer projection) that would be huge.
It's kind of interesting how there's not a ton of hype around him even among Met fans. We're all pretty much expecting him to hit 8th whereas Lindor for example has pretty much hit 1/2/3 since day 1. He has less than 10 total AB's in his entire career below the 3 spot. I'm glad there aren't high expectations for Rosario but considering he was the #1 prospect in all baseball it's definitely not impossible that he's ready for more than the 8th spot pretty early on.
Sickels always has a different view of prospects - he tends to favor stats over tools. I do appreciate that he is easy to talk to and willing to discuss differing viewpoints without getting defensive.
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We need someone to have a breakout year in the worst way...
Rosario, one of the catchers... I don't know if I can really put Nimmo here...
But what guys like Judge and Bellinger did for their teams last year made such a huge difference. I'm not expecting that type of breakout from any of these guys but just a much higher production level than we had expected from a player or two could really change things.
Even a guy like Jose Ramirez in CLE last year - that guy really became an excellent player and he's not mentioned often.
Obviously Rosario is the guy who has that potential and if he can hit and get on base enough to take control of the leadoff spot that would have a massive impact on the entire lineup. If he can post an OBP around .330 (about 30 points higher than steamer projection) that would be huge.
It's kind of interesting how there's not a ton of hype around him even among Met fans. We're all pretty much expecting him to hit 8th whereas Lindor for example has pretty much hit 1/2/3 since day 1. He has less than 10 total AB's in his entire career below the 3 spot. I'm glad there aren't high expectations for Rosario but considering he was the #1 prospect in all baseball it's definitely not impossible that he's ready for more than the 8th spot pretty early on.
If Conforto was 100% now, I think I'd be a lot more excited.
I just can't shake the feeling that he's going to be hampered all year and just never get himself right.
Rosario can absolutely be the guy who has a breakout year - he'd be most likely, IMO. We need a positional prospect to come up and become a star so badly. It can happen with Conforto or Rosario - I just worry about Conforto staying healthy.
The Dunn ranking is odd but in the comments he said all the C+ guys were basically interchangable and at one point he had him up at 10.
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list and dumb writeups.
The Dunn ranking is odd but in the comments he said all the C+ guys were basically interchangable and at one point he had him up at 10.
Anthony Kay at 18? Really? Law had him #6, Dunn at 3. Guillorme as a lock top 5 guy for him is absurd as well. Law had him #13, BA had him 10 and over at NYFS we had him 8th.
Yeah I know Callaway made the comparison but I don't think it's fair to compare anyone to a guy who was that good right away. I guess my point is just that even if that's the absolute best case and likely unrealistic, there's might be a lot of realistic middle ground outcomes between that and just hitting 8th. I'm personally hoping he can just post an OBP around .330 because I think that's good enough to warrant batting leadoff.
it's unlikely Matz stays healthy since he never has
it's unlikely Wheeler stays healthy since he hasn't since 2014
other than Rosario none of those guys I listed is even a likely every day starter - and a Rosario "breakout" is at best 50-50
So while there are enough guys in each group that it's easy to say "1 of those guys will step up", there's still nobody likely to do so. But that's why they play the games and why we root as fans - because unlikely things happen all the time. My biggest source of optimism this year is that with Callaway/Eiland/new performance team I feel they actively did something to improve the odds of the pitchers succeeding. Not signing Reed is the only thing I'd point to as a miss in trying to improve the pitching staff.
As far as the starters, again, any of them by themselves? Yes. All of them together having one emerge or bounce back? Completely different. And yes a 24 year old Gsellman, ect can be added to that group. We have 6 guys competing for 3 spots. As for breakouts... every year somebody breaks out. It doesnt have to be Rosario. It could be Nimmo or Corey Oswalt for all we know. I think one breakout is VERY likely actually.
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was so much more polished than Rosario that it's hard to compare. The surprise with Lindor was the power. The glove was the best (or close to it) for any SS prospect this decade, they knew he could hit, didn't strike out, the power was the surprise.
Yeah I know Callaway made the comparison but I don't think it's fair to compare anyone to a guy who was that good right away. I guess my point is just that even if that's the absolute best case and likely unrealistic, there's might be a lot of realistic middle ground outcomes between that and just hitting 8th. I'm personally hoping he can just post an OBP around .330 because I think that's good enough to warrant batting leadoff.
Not knocking Callaway but it's clear he plays fast and furious with the hyperbole. What exactly is he going to say "Lindor is better but Rosario is very talented?". Rosario could be very, very good but Lindor looked 100% ready to come in and at least produce (and play ++ defense). Rosario is very raw for a top guy (not even knocking him) but to go from swinging at THAT many pitches out of the zone to being Lindor (or close) right away is probably pretty unlikely to happen. But who knows? The world expected Swanson to be a beast this year and he stunk
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In comment 13833563 DanMetroMan said:
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was so much more polished than Rosario that it's hard to compare. The surprise with Lindor was the power. The glove was the best (or close to it) for any SS prospect this decade, they knew he could hit, didn't strike out, the power was the surprise.
Yeah I know Callaway made the comparison but I don't think it's fair to compare anyone to a guy who was that good right away. I guess my point is just that even if that's the absolute best case and likely unrealistic, there's might be a lot of realistic middle ground outcomes between that and just hitting 8th. I'm personally hoping he can just post an OBP around .330 because I think that's good enough to warrant batting leadoff.
Not knocking Callaway but it's clear he plays fast and furious with the hyperbole. What exactly is he going to say "Lindor is better but Rosario is very talented?". Rosario could be very, very good but Lindor looked 100% ready to come in and at least produce (and play ++ defense). Rosario is very raw for a top guy (not even knocking him) but to go from swinging at THAT many pitches out of the zone to being Lindor (or close) right away is probably pretty unlikely to happen. But who knows? The world expected Swanson to be a beast this year and he stunk
Exactly. Smaller first year sample, but Judge went from the interstate to the best hitter in baseball. Guys with elite tools can just have it 'click' sometimes.
Solid deal for Cashner. Wasn't a fit here at anywhere near that price. Would've loved to add Bud Norris for the price he signed at.