round worth It? Here is the 2000 NFL Draft and who was picked. Shaun Alexander and Keith Bulluck selected after him. They did have kicker figured out for a long time. Link - ( New Window )
If they were ever in a position to need a big kick Â
there’s a number of undradted kickers who’ve had 10+ year careers that have been as good. Janikowski was never exponentially better than his peers, the “value” of that pick was extremely low.
he was an above average kicker for them for 17 years.
Sure, there were a few great picks that occurred after him... there were also lots of picks of guys who played less than 2-3 years after him. That happens in every draft, at every position.
Who would you rather have drafted that year - Janikowski or Peter Warrick (#5) or Ron fucking Dayne (#11)?
he was an above average kicker for them for 17 years.
Sure, there were a few great picks that occurred after him... there were also lots of picks of guys who played less than 2-3 years after him. That happens in every draft, at every position.
Who would you rather have drafted that year - Janikowski or Peter Warrick (#5) or Ron fucking Dayne (#11)?
It wasn't though. There was no rookie pay scale then so he was getting paid a lot of money for doing a mediocre, and at times, poor job kicking. He was 27th in FG% his rookie year, 10th, 15th, 5th, 4th in the following 4 years. In his 5th year he finished behind Matt Stover, Josh Brown and Adam Vinatieri who were drafted 12th, 7th, and undrafted.
There is absolutely no argument that can be made to pick a kicker that high.
Chances are drafting a Kicker that high won't turn out well - so rule of thumb, be it Mike Nugent or that guy on Tampa last year... usually teams regret it. Agree with you.
But the guy, you say in your own post, 4 of his first 5 years was an above average league kicker, and top 5 twice. Perennial probowler. More often than not, in years 6-17, in the top quartile of his position.
I'd say he returned (mid/late) first round pick value. No doubt about it. And Gostkowski, and Vinitieri, and a handful of other Kickers over the past 20 years would have as well.
I could take any position on the field outside of QB and say this guy was drafted in the 3rd-5th rounds.. they could have just taken him then (Alvin Kamara and Kareem Hunt just top of mind recent examples).
Again, in retrospect was the pick stupid from risk/reward perspective? Yes. Did it work out for them anyway? It did, he returned good ROI on that draft slot over his career. Sure ,they could have drafted Shaun Alexander instead. 16 other teams should have too - basically any team not the Bears who took Urlacher.
Funny the Browns that year picked first and picked a bust Â
he didn’t separate himself from his peers. He had some bad seasons and some good seasons, and he cost a ton. He was extremely poor value that only worked out because he wasn’t a bust.
but against his peers who’ve made considerably less, horrible value. His position is easily replaceable by undeadted free agents, he wasn’t worth wasting a first rounder on regardless of who the busts at other positions were.
Jeff Feagles was a fantastic punter. He was undrafted. He’d be a terrible 1st round pick.
draft picks on kickers. He had 4 decent seasons out of 17 where he finished in the top 10 in FG%, but the rest were often downright horrid. Last in the league in FG% 3x, bottom 5 4 other seasons. Yuck. The guy sucked, and was a ridiculous waste of the 17th pick in the draft.
Even for a very good kicker, you can get 95% of his production off the trash heap, so why give up a premium pick for the position?
A 4th round pick is a crap shoot, so no, he wasn't a waste of a pick. Best case, he's a regular contributor on defense; worst case, he can long snap and play other specials. Most 4th rounders are out of the league in a year or two, so Zak was good value.
he was an above average kicker for them for 17 years.
Sure, there were a few great picks that occurred after him... there were also lots of picks of guys who played less than 2-3 years after him. That happens in every draft, at every position.
Who would you rather have drafted that year - Janikowski or Peter Warrick (#5) or Ron fucking Dayne (#11)?
Because other teams make bad picks doesn't make a kicker at 17 worthwhile. The upside of Warrick or Dayne is far more valuable than the upside of any kicker. Gostkowski and Vinatieri have been the best kickers of the past 10-15 years, but I wouldn't take either in the first.
RE: The perfect example of why you don't waste premium Â
draft picks on kickers. He had 4 decent seasons out of 17 where he finished in the top 10 in FG%, but the rest were often downright horrid. Last in the league in FG% 3x, bottom 5 4 other seasons. Yuck. The guy sucked, and was a ridiculous waste of the 17th pick in the draft.
Even for a very good kicker, you can get 95% of his production off the trash heap, so why give up a premium pick for the position?
most 4th round picks don’t succeed at any position so I’m happy in what he turned out to be. Very good value. Not sure what that has to do with using a premium pick to take a kicker, though.
so long snappers are worth 4th round picks, but kickers who hold NFL records for most kicks over 50 yards grow on trees.
The guy was top quartile at his position for 18 years. Whether at the time it was the right pick - no one is arguing that, not sure why this is difficult to understand. But it turned out fine - he without question returned late first round value.
so long snappers are worth 4th round picks, but kickers who hold NFL records for most kicks over 50 yards grow on trees.
The guy was top quartile at his position for 18 years. Whether at the time it was the right pick - no one is arguing that, not sure why this is difficult to understand. But it turned out fine - he without question returned late first round value.
Most 4th rounders don't make the team, 1st rounders do. He had a long career because the Raiders didn't want egg on their faces. Most teams would have cut him after multiple 60% FG seasons. He holds the record for 50 yarders because he kicked forever. The record he broke was held by Jason Hanson, hardly known for a big leg.
I'll take a kicker I trust to make a kick over a guy who will miss a 30 yarder, but make the occasional 60 yarder.
If he was such good value, why haven't other teams used 1st rounders on kickers? Are they all idiots?
hence this discussion. Many of the NFL's very best kickers were undrafted or late rounders - AKA, its a position most easily filled without a premium up-front investment.
Not only did Oakland pay a 1st rounder for him, they also gave him a 1st round contract, and paid him over $10 million more in 5 less years than a much better kicker who went undrafted in Adam Vinatieri.
If all you are looking for is longevity than go right ahead and draft Janikowski and Jeff Feagles in consecutive years using your first rounder. Let me know how well that turns out.
Most 4th rounders don't make the team, 1st rounders do.
False
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He had a long career because the Raiders didn't want egg on their faces.
They held onto him for 18 years, new owners, and at least 5+G GMs and coaches because they didnt want the guy 3 guys before them to look bad? Bull shit.
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Most teams would have cut him after multiple 60% FG seasons.
Except that most teams dont go making up shit. This is easily researched. His worst career season was 67%. He was 80.4% for his career.
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He holds the record for 50 yarders because he kicked forever.
Correct, he had a long and successful career. Better than most late first round picks can say.
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I'll take a kicker I trust to make a kick over a guy who will miss a 30 yarder, but make the occasional 60 yarder.
I respect your personal space.
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If he was such good value, why haven't other teams used 1st rounders on kickers? Are they all idiots?
Face Palm. As has been said by myself and others 50 times on this thread already.... Yes, using first round picks on kickers with limited upside and chances they develop mental issues and dont last long in the league is stupid. NOT ARGUING THIS POINT.
But... the guy had a long and successful career, it turned out, setting several NFL records, making pro bowls, etc. He earned his draft pick, as it turned out... in retrospect. No, they should not take that chance again moving forward.
models that suggest a team should NEVER use a draft pick on a special teams player exclusively for that purpose. The theory is that you will get comparable production out of UDFA's in those positions.
That being said, I hate when absolutes are given, and Janikowski has given the Raiders a PK for over a decade.
Has his performance been demonstrably better than undrafted kickers? Not really, but I don't think there's a clear winner to the argument on if he was worth that pick.
I’d rather fail trying to get my QB or LT of the future than solidify my slightly above average kicking game for 15+ years. So many better kickers over the years at a fraction of the cost and risk, just an incredibly stupid pick.
might very well be better than Rosas, but in 5 of his first 8 seasons, he made less than 80% of his FG's. Including 4 years lower than Rosas's 72.4% mark last year.
Janikowski was 68.8% his rookie season.
People love the fact the guy has a cannon, but he hasn't always been a top kicker. Out of his 17 seasons, he's been in the top 10 in accuracy 8 times, 10-20 4 times and 20+ 5 times.
after his rookie contract was up, which was expensive given his draft status, he’s a FA like anyone else unless he extends his current deal. The Raiders never had cap savings at his position and always paid a premium for it (regardless of the hit being low for his position) without ever really getting top tier value save for a couple of seasons. Bringing in a new kicker would have likely netted them a comparable player, potentially worse but I’d say potentially better as well, for a fraction of the cost.
They didn’t draft him for 15+ years, they drafted him with a premium pick and salary and then had to keep paying him top dollar.
Former Giant Chris Boswell should be the top target. He is young and he is already one of the league's best kickers. Let's correct one of Reese's mistakes by bringing him back.
Other options include:
Caleb Sturgis
Kai Forbath
Chandler Catanzaro
Adam Vinatieri
Matt Bryant
Graham Gano
Cody Parkey
Former Giant Chris Boswell should be the top target. He is young and he is already one of the league's best kickers. Let's correct one of Reese's mistakes by bringing him back.
Other options include:
Caleb Sturgis
Kai Forbath
Chandler Catanzaro
Adam Vinatieri
Matt Bryant
Graham Gano
Cody Parkey
Boswell is a RFA.
The Dolphins are up against the cap, so I would make a big push for Cody Parkey. He's a career 86% on FGs.
Former Giant Chris Boswell should be the top target. He is young and he is already one of the league's best kickers. Let's correct one of Reese's mistakes by bringing him back.
Other options include:
Caleb Sturgis
Kai Forbath
Chandler Catanzaro
Adam Vinatieri
Matt Bryant
Graham Gano
Cody Parkey
Boswell is a RFA.
The Dolphins are up against the cap, so I would make a big push for Cody Parkey. He's a career 86% on FGs.
My next target would be Caleb Sturgis.
Parkey would be my top choice as well with Sturgis as the #2 choice since Boswell is a RFA. Sturgis lost his job due to an injury not poor performance and he has kicked well on the east coast. Parkey kicked for Philly for 2 seasons and he was 35-40 which is good for 88%. Parkey i
Over his past 17 games Sturgis is 38-44 which is good for 87% of his kicks. Parkey is 6-7 in his career from 50+
Link - ( New Window )
Sure, there were a few great picks that occurred after him... there were also lots of picks of guys who played less than 2-3 years after him. That happens in every draft, at every position.
Who would you rather have drafted that year - Janikowski or Peter Warrick (#5) or Ron fucking Dayne (#11)?
Sure, there were a few great picks that occurred after him... there were also lots of picks of guys who played less than 2-3 years after him. That happens in every draft, at every position.
Who would you rather have drafted that year - Janikowski or Peter Warrick (#5) or Ron fucking Dayne (#11)?
It wasn't though. There was no rookie pay scale then so he was getting paid a lot of money for doing a mediocre, and at times, poor job kicking. He was 27th in FG% his rookie year, 10th, 15th, 5th, 4th in the following 4 years. In his 5th year he finished behind Matt Stover, Josh Brown and Adam Vinatieri who were drafted 12th, 7th, and undrafted.
There is absolutely no argument that can be made to pick a kicker that high.
But the guy, you say in your own post, 4 of his first 5 years was an above average league kicker, and top 5 twice. Perennial probowler. More often than not, in years 6-17, in the top quartile of his position.
I'd say he returned (mid/late) first round pick value. No doubt about it. And Gostkowski, and Vinitieri, and a handful of other Kickers over the past 20 years would have as well.
I could take any position on the field outside of QB and say this guy was drafted in the 3rd-5th rounds.. they could have just taken him then (Alvin Kamara and Kareem Hunt just top of mind recent examples).
Again, in retrospect was the pick stupid from risk/reward perspective? Yes. Did it work out for them anyway? It did, he returned good ROI on that draft slot over his career. Sure ,they could have drafted Shaun Alexander instead. 16 other teams should have too - basically any team not the Bears who took Urlacher.
I dont think the cost factors into the equation here.
Jeff Feagles was a fantastic punter. He was undrafted. He’d be a terrible 1st round pick.
Just asking.
Even for a very good kicker, you can get 95% of his production off the trash heap, so why give up a premium pick for the position?
Just asking.
A 4th round pick is a crap shoot, so no, he wasn't a waste of a pick. Best case, he's a regular contributor on defense; worst case, he can long snap and play other specials. Most 4th rounders are out of the league in a year or two, so Zak was good value.
Sure, there were a few great picks that occurred after him... there were also lots of picks of guys who played less than 2-3 years after him. That happens in every draft, at every position.
Who would you rather have drafted that year - Janikowski or Peter Warrick (#5) or Ron fucking Dayne (#11)?
Because other teams make bad picks doesn't make a kicker at 17 worthwhile. The upside of Warrick or Dayne is far more valuable than the upside of any kicker. Gostkowski and Vinatieri have been the best kickers of the past 10-15 years, but I wouldn't take either in the first.
Even for a very good kicker, you can get 95% of his production off the trash heap, so why give up a premium pick for the position?
Yup. Couldn’t agree more.
Just asking.
Given he might be the best LS in the league for close to a decade with respect to punt coverage after the kick I would say yes.
The guy was top quartile at his position for 18 years. Whether at the time it was the right pick - no one is arguing that, not sure why this is difficult to understand. But it turned out fine - he without question returned late first round value.
The guy was top quartile at his position for 18 years. Whether at the time it was the right pick - no one is arguing that, not sure why this is difficult to understand. But it turned out fine - he without question returned late first round value.
Most 4th rounders don't make the team, 1st rounders do. He had a long career because the Raiders didn't want egg on their faces. Most teams would have cut him after multiple 60% FG seasons. He holds the record for 50 yarders because he kicked forever. The record he broke was held by Jason Hanson, hardly known for a big leg.
I'll take a kicker I trust to make a kick over a guy who will miss a 30 yarder, but make the occasional 60 yarder.
If he was such good value, why haven't other teams used 1st rounders on kickers? Are they all idiots?
Not only did Oakland pay a 1st rounder for him, they also gave him a 1st round contract, and paid him over $10 million more in 5 less years than a much better kicker who went undrafted in Adam Vinatieri.
If all you are looking for is longevity than go right ahead and draft Janikowski and Jeff Feagles in consecutive years using your first rounder. Let me know how well that turns out.
Most 4th rounders don't make the team, 1st rounders do.
False
They held onto him for 18 years, new owners, and at least 5+G GMs and coaches because they didnt want the guy 3 guys before them to look bad? Bull shit.
Except that most teams dont go making up shit. This is easily researched. His worst career season was 67%. He was 80.4% for his career.
Correct, he had a long and successful career. Better than most late first round picks can say.
I respect your personal space.
Face Palm. As has been said by myself and others 50 times on this thread already.... Yes, using first round picks on kickers with limited upside and chances they develop mental issues and dont last long in the league is stupid. NOT ARGUING THIS POINT.
But... the guy had a long and successful career, it turned out, setting several NFL records, making pro bowls, etc. He earned his draft pick, as it turned out... in retrospect. No, they should not take that chance again moving forward.
That being said, I hate when absolutes are given, and Janikowski has given the Raiders a PK for over a decade.
Has his performance been demonstrably better than undrafted kickers? Not really, but I don't think there's a clear winner to the argument on if he was worth that pick.
Roberto Aguayo on the other hand.....
Janikowski was 68.8% his rookie season.
People love the fact the guy has a cannon, but he hasn't always been a top kicker. Out of his 17 seasons, he's been in the top 10 in accuracy 8 times, 10-20 4 times and 20+ 5 times.
They didn’t draft him for 15+ years, they drafted him with a premium pick and salary and then had to keep paying him top dollar.
Other options include:
Caleb Sturgis
Kai Forbath
Chandler Catanzaro
Adam Vinatieri
Matt Bryant
Graham Gano
Cody Parkey
Other options include:
Caleb Sturgis
Kai Forbath
Chandler Catanzaro
Adam Vinatieri
Matt Bryant
Graham Gano
Cody Parkey
Boswell is a RFA.
The Dolphins are up against the cap, so I would make a big push for Cody Parkey. He's a career 86% on FGs.
My next target would be Caleb Sturgis.
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Former Giant Chris Boswell should be the top target. He is young and he is already one of the league's best kickers. Let's correct one of Reese's mistakes by bringing him back.
Other options include:
Caleb Sturgis
Kai Forbath
Chandler Catanzaro
Adam Vinatieri
Matt Bryant
Graham Gano
Cody Parkey
Boswell is a RFA.
The Dolphins are up against the cap, so I would make a big push for Cody Parkey. He's a career 86% on FGs.
My next target would be Caleb Sturgis.
Parkey would be my top choice as well with Sturgis as the #2 choice since Boswell is a RFA. Sturgis lost his job due to an injury not poor performance and he has kicked well on the east coast. Parkey kicked for Philly for 2 seasons and he was 35-40 which is good for 88%. Parkey i
Over his past 17 games Sturgis is 38-44 which is good for 87% of his kicks. Parkey is 6-7 in his career from 50+