Disclaimer: this is a simplification for conversation purposes and does not infer this is how you prefer to frame the QB debate.
In a conversation yesterday Sy had said he doesn't see any of the QBs in this draft as being Special or Elite. I'll be honest, I'm not exactly sure what that means, but was hoping to ground some discussion relative to NFL QBs today.
The way I see things, there is a very select group of truly elite QBs in the NFL today. Tom Brady, for sure, also Aaron Rodgers. Peyton Manning was at that level as well.
Drew Brees is probably a slight bit below, you could argue Ben Roethlisberger as well --depending on how you view him.
An then there is a tier of guys who are very good, who you can win SBs with and generally keep their teams competitive when there is some bit of talent around them to work with. Eli Manning was in this group (and may still be), which I would suggest include the likes of (in no particular order) Cam Newton, Matt Ryan, Matthew Stafford, Russell Wilson, and Phillip Rivers. This is the group I would call true franchise QBs, and Tony Romo would have been in there as well.
We can quibble over moving a guy here or there up or down based on preference, but ~in general~ I would suggest there is not a HUGE difference between the QBs I've listed in that group vs. each other (most have won SBs, MVPs, or among the statistical leaders in most years), and none are at the Brady/AR level.
Some of the QBs I would put in a tier below are Flacco (despite his SB), Dalton, and K Cousins.
There are also a whole lot of younger QBs I could not say where they belong yet as the picture for them is still coming into focus.
So tying this into the draft, how good of a QB would you need to envision a prospect will become to warrant/justify selecting him @2 (opposed to taking another player, who will likely become a really good player at a different position, or a say a trade down)?
To me, I could simplify the decision in my own mind as: if they believe one of the QBs projects into that group of what I termed true franchise QBs (basically your top 12 or so), I believe they should be the pick. If not, and they see Flacco or Dalton caliber QB as a more likely outcome, then I would go in a different direction.
JMHO, I'm not sure if greatness is on the horizon for either Darnold and Rosen, but gun to the head, do I project them onto a level of a M Ryan, M Stafford, or P Rivers? Yes --that seems about right to me.
So two questions 1) how good a QB would a prospect have to project to becoming to justify a selection @2, in your mind, and 2) what tier a QB do you envision for the top QBs in this draft, if forced to say?
Thoughts?
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it's not looking like a great year to hold the #2 overall pick.
JonC, hypothetical question. I agree with you, not a great year to have #2 overall, but lets say Denver strikes out in the Kirk Cousins sweepstakes (I think they will). Do you make a trade and drop back to #5? Get more picks in the process and pick the best QB left on the board?
Or do you just grab Darnold and run with it at #2. (I think Cleveland goes QB at #4, not #1.)
Darnold is my #1 player at this time, I'd pick him and run.
We just need to pick the right guy. Every single year, everyone talks about how this position group is weak, etc. People thought Goff and Wentz were projects. How'd that turn out?
I love Sy, but he had Connor McDermott as his best OT in the draft last year because he thought the crop was weak. There were 3 OT taken in picks 20-35 that all seem to be very good NFL players in their rookie years.
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In comment 13833133 JonC said:
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it's not looking like a great year to hold the #2 overall pick.
JonC, hypothetical question. I agree with you, not a great year to have #2 overall, but lets say Denver strikes out in the Kirk Cousins sweepstakes (I think they will). Do you make a trade and drop back to #5? Get more picks in the process and pick the best QB left on the board?
Or do you just grab Darnold and run with it at #2. (I think Cleveland goes QB at #4, not #1.)
Darnold is my #1 player at this time, I'd pick him and run.
I could easily live with that
I don't see any of them as HoF locks at this point. Nothing magical.
Rosen should definitely be ahead of Wentz, Trubisky, Watson, and Mahomes. Goff was a borderline elite prospect coming out if I recall.
Darnold is my #1 player at this time, I'd pick him and run.
Agree 100%. I am hoping that the Browns make it easy on us and select Mayfield or Allen 1st overall. If they do take Darnold 1st overall then the Giants will be in an extremely tough spot. Personally I would then take a chance on Rosen at 2 but if I was offered a huge package to move down I would strongly consider it.
And for the Record I would love to draft Chubb at #2 -- I think he holds very good value at that spot if you are not picking a QB -- better value than Barkley for championship purposes, and I really like Barkley a lot -- but I also think the Giants would crazy to pass up on the opportunity to draft a franchise QB this year and I rank them in the order above.
Exactly. My feeling is Rosen and Darnold are certainly more than capable.
Rosen should definitely be ahead of Wentz, Trubisky, Watson, and Mahomes. Goff was a borderline elite prospect coming out if I recall.
IIRC there was a lot of concern with Goff and the offense he ran in college, similar to Rodgers, and Wentz with his low level of competition. What bothers me about discussing this years free agent class is how some act as if Goff and Wentz were sure things coming out when the exact opposite was true. I will admit I was unsure about Wentz but I believed that Goff would be a bust.
The other side of the coin is that if you take a Barkley and he turns out to be a very good player (and the odds of that are about the same as whether the QB turns out to be very good) he'll definitely make you a better team, BUT, and its the other big but in the equation, you still aren't going to be much more than a .500 team until you find your next QB. And the QBs you end up looking at down the road if you are a .500 team likely aren't going to have a probability of being that very good to elite player much more than 5% and unless you get really lucky you end up in Gettleman's QB Hell.
The other side of the coin is that if you take a Barkley and he turns out to be a very good player (and the odds of that are about the same as whether the QB turns out to be very good) he'll definitely make you a better team, BUT, and its the other big but in the equation, you still aren't going to be much more than a .500 team until you find your next QB. And the QBs you end up looking at down the road if you are a .500 team likely aren't going to have a probability of being that very good to elite player much more than 5% and unless you get really lucky you end up in Gettleman's QB Hell.
Thanks Colin. You still all in on "giants are drafting a QB at 2" ?
So in answer to your question, if one of these guys is an Eli, you grab him
Now please, I am not stating Eli has been in the class of a Brady and the others over the course of his career.
However elevating one s game to an elite level in the post season is a pretty desirable trait. In fact I would argue I would prefer Eli over Peyton in the post season
On the issue of drafting a quarterback to me it is simple. The opportunity to find a franchise guy is considerably greater with the # 2 pick in the draft than later.
The Giants rarely have this type of opportunity, last time was 81, L.T. But they had the young Simms, Eli will be 38 by the end of next season.
I trust Giants brass to make the correct decision. I just hope one of these quarterbacks is the guy and the Giants get him. I m of the opinion that how Eli performs going toward or the potential of Davis Webb should have no bearing on the decision to draft a quarterback.
Your guy is there, you get him, even if you need to draft up to get him. There is no bigger or important move a team can make
In terms of the question. I disagree a little with the tiering (Wilson and prime Brees should be Tier 1 or 1b), but agree with the post. There's a very small tier at the top and then about 10-12 guys behind that will fluctuate on the list based on the system and supporting cast. IMO, if the Giants see a safe bet for the 2nd tier guy (say the next Stafford or Rivers), they should take it. I just don't see them having another opportunity to grab that guy in the near future. We'll probably be stuck in the position that a team like the Cards are in this offseason.
I agree, if they don't like a QB then trade down pick up a 2019 1st round pick plus a 2nd this year or next. The Giants will then have two first round picks to get their QB next year.
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Even if they don't like the QB on the board for them at 2, they should be in a great position to trade down. Jets, Broncos and Bills are either in striking distance and/or have the ammunition and motive to make the jump. The position is extremely subjective team to team and the only QB they deem worthy may be sitting there at the Giants pick.
I agree, if they don't like a QB then trade down pick up a 2019 1st round pick plus a 2nd this year or next. The Giants will then have two first round picks to get their QB next year.
That's what a smart, forward thinking team will do. If the Giants don't like the QB options at 2, they better take that clock to 0 in the hopes of getting a bounty that includes an extra 1 next year. I'm hoping they won't be picking top 10, so like you said, they'll probably need the ammo next year.
Or you trade back and still bring major help to your roster for the present and future.
It's a pretty ideal situation to be able to have a capable QB for at least 1 more season, and be able to groom his successor all at the same time.
I'll be happy with whatever player we pick.
Caveat: you at least HOPE you won't be drafting @ top 5 again next year.
If the FO thinks we are Cleveland / Indy talent poor..look at the schedule and see few wins in '18 and a likely high draft spot again..and likely better QB prospects( crystal ball time).. then you wait for a deal or pick for another value BPA @2. Might even yet lucky and trade down AND get a value QB @ 5/6.
Otherwise..you look at the top. 5/6 QBs ...see which one will best fit the O you want to run...get him..coach him up..and. hope hes IT.
And you cant fire coaches every 2-3 years..GMs the same...change systems..then draft QBs that can likely perform better in the new system...then rinse and repeat( unless your HC is not an adult).
I think Rosen's ceiling is Matt Ryan. Matt Ryan is a really good player. If Rosen reaches that level everyone will say I was wrong in my opinion of him. But that's an 'IF'. I think Rosen could also be Ryan Tannehill. And let me just say, I think Tannehill is a talented player. I think he can win if you give him an incredible team around him.
But if I'm picking inside the top 5 of the NFL draft, I want to be able to reasonably believe my QB can become a top-5 NFL QB. And that means in the mix with Rodgers, Brady, Brees, Roethlisberger, and Russell Wilson (who I believe got short-changed by the OP). I'm not using #2 for a guy who I think their reasonable projection is that of an average NFL starter.
I think Rosen's ceiling is Matt Ryan. Matt Ryan is a really good player. If Rosen reaches that level everyone will say I was wrong in my opinion of him. But that's an 'IF'. I think Rosen could also be Ryan Tannehill. And let me just say, I think Tannehill is a talented player. I think he can win if you give him an incredible team around him.
But if I'm picking inside the top 5 of the NFL draft, I want to be able to reasonably believe my QB can become a top-5 NFL QB. And that means in the mix with Rodgers, Brady, Brees, Roethlisberger, and Russell Wilson (who I believe got short-changed by the OP). I'm not using #2 for a guy who I think their reasonable projection is that of an average NFL starter.
I know I'm cherry picking here, but Ryan Leaf was supposed to have the higher ceiling than Peyton Manning.
I guess, for me, when it comes to Rosen, my only concern with him are the injuries, but if healthy, I don't think there would be any worry about his ceiling.
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at the Andrew Luck level to take a QB that high. However, you have to believe in his talent enough that he has to have a special/elite ceiling. That's why I like Allen more and Rosen less. Do I think Rosen can win games in the NFL? Yes. I think Allen has the ceiling that is on another level - HOF caliber ceiling (he also has a considerably lower floor than both Darnold and Rosen). I think Darnold has a ceiling like Roethlisberger and perhaps even better.
I think Rosen's ceiling is Matt Ryan. Matt Ryan is a really good player. If Rosen reaches that level everyone will say I was wrong in my opinion of him. But that's an 'IF'. I think Rosen could also be Ryan Tannehill. And let me just say, I think Tannehill is a talented player. I think he can win if you give him an incredible team around him.
But if I'm picking inside the top 5 of the NFL draft, I want to be able to reasonably believe my QB can become a top-5 NFL QB. And that means in the mix with Rodgers, Brady, Brees, Roethlisberger, and Russell Wilson (who I believe got short-changed by the OP). I'm not using #2 for a guy who I think their reasonable projection is that of an average NFL starter.
I know I'm cherry picking here, but Ryan Leaf was supposed to have the higher ceiling than Peyton Manning.
I guess, for me, when it comes to Rosen, my only concern with him are the injuries, but if healthy, I don't think there would be any worry about his ceiling.
That's not at all true, perhaps with some individuals, there is always going to be some variance of opinion, but not fair to say that the prevailing opinion was that Leaf had the higher ceiling. If anything, it was the opposite. And it's never JUST about ceiling alone. It's about reasonable projection, too. That's why I have Darnold over Allen even though Allen has the highest ceiling. Darnold has a much higher floor and is much easier to project as a successful NFL QB.
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Many teams were believed to have been tanking in the beginning of the season in order to have a chance at one of the top prospects, and now suddenly people just think the crop has gone bad? Blows my mind.
Because we are in the stage in assessments where people pick apart the flaws. I suspect we'll see QBs emerging from the combine process back out on top with 4 selected in the top 6 and a team or two currently on the outside looking in making strong push to get a seat at the party.
4 out of the top 6 will be QB's??? I highly doubt that. I would be surprised if there are 4 qb's taken in the top 15 seeing as how since 1981 it has only been done 3 times; 1983,1999 and 2011. And if you look at those 3 drafts only one QB in 2011 (newton), two in 1999 (Mcnabb and Culpepper) and two in 1983 (Elway, Kelly) where worth the picks
I'd say RB and CB are the top then QB right after.
You should have to be a Browns fan for a few years if you honestly think that makes sense.
It's like going into the new car dealership, very high end automobiles, you pay for a Bentley or Maserati and nine months later the chances are what you're looking at in the garage (or worse, on the bench) is a Buick.
(I agree with several above that UberAlias in his excellent OP de-valued Brees a bit: when he's hot, which is usually, only Brady and Rodgers when they're hot are on a par or better, and Luck was viewed as sure a QB prospect as had come along in years)
At the end of the day, the Giants need to have conviction in their (new) protocols and evaluation process, and as fans we have to hope that DG's draft team has it right. If the conviction is not there for one of Darnold or Rosen or another, then go in a different direction, trade down, whatever.
I kno you didn’t ask me but I was a HUGE fan of Wentz when he was coming out of SDSU. His tape was amazing. Pissed he went to the Eagles. Not surprised he had the type of year he had as I honestly see him being almost Rodges like. Same reason I like Allen.
I liked Hackenburg his first season at Penn State (honestly I like him coming out of th UA All American game). But his problem was not reading coverages well and bad decisions. Allen’s problem is he’s rather gun it than throw with anticipation and touch. I don’t think that’s ALL on him though. His WRs were mostly new guys who didn’t get separation and occasionally ran the wrong route. I think he got to a point where he’d just wait to see what the WR did and THEN throw to him as opposed to being timing and rhythm. That occasionally causes him to be late on a pass and HAVE TO gun it to make up for him being late.
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How do you compare Darnold, Rosen, and Mayfield to Jared Goff, Carson Wentz, Mitchell Trubisky, Deshaun Watson, and Patrick Mahomes prior to their drafts not present day.
My Rankings on them would have been.
I kno you didn’t ask me but I was a HUGE fan of Wentz when he was coming out of SDSU. His tape was amazing. Pissed he went to the Eagles. Not surprised he had the type of year he had as I honestly see him being almost Rodges like. Same reason I like Allen.
I liked Hackenburg his first season at Penn State (honestly I like him coming out of th UA All American game). But his problem was not reading coverages well and bad decisions. Allen’s problem is he’s rather gun it than throw with anticipation and touch. I don’t think that’s ALL on him though. His WRs were mostly new guys who didn’t get separation and occasionally ran the wrong route. I think he got to a point where he’d just wait to see what the WR did and THEN throw to him as opposed to being timing and rhythm. That occasionally causes him to be late on a pass and HAVE TO gun it to make up for him being late.
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Even if they don't like the QB on the board for them at 2, they should be in a great position to trade down. Jets, Broncos and Bills are either in striking distance and/or have the ammunition and motive to make the jump. The position is extremely subjective team to team and the only QB they deem worthy may be sitting there at the Giants pick.
I agree, if they don't like a QB then trade down pick up a 2019 1st round pick plus a 2nd this year or next. The Giants will then have two first round picks to get their QB next year.
Even going back to Andrew Luck, people were nitpicking every minute detail to his game, whether his arm was strong enough..
And no offense to SY, I know he knows his shit, but opinions vary from team to team, and who knows what kind of grade the Giants have on any of these QB's.
Baren,I see it the same. I think the problem of
the 'thinking class' is they have a tendency to create
far more confusing data that often just creates
'paralysis'. With most, the main issues are skill
of the task (throwing),leadership (will men follow)
pyschology, character (can he still perform when
lady luck turns her back) Intelligence (have presence,
knows what surrounds him and can overcome fear allowing
his intelligence to find the win) and seems lucky.
But, of course when dealing with people it's always
a crap shoot. People change~ :)
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How do you compare Darnold, Rosen, and Mayfield to Jared Goff, Carson Wentz, Mitchell Trubisky, Deshaun Watson, and Patrick Mahomes prior to their drafts not present day.
My Rankings on them would have been.
I kno you didn’t ask me but I was a HUGE fan of Wentz when he was coming out of SDSU. His tape was amazing. Pissed he went to the Eagles. Not surprised he had the type of year he had as I honestly see him being almost Rodges like. Same reason I like Allen.
I liked Hackenburg his first season at Penn State (honestly I like him coming out of th UA All American game). But his problem was not reading coverages well and bad decisions. Allen’s problem is he’s rather gun it than throw with anticipation and touch. I don’t think that’s ALL on him though. His WRs were mostly new guys who didn’t get separation and occasionally ran the wrong route. I think he got to a point where he’d just wait to see what the WR did and THEN throw to him as opposed to being timing and rhythm. That occasionally causes him to be late on a pass and HAVE TO gun it to make up for him being late.
Not that I was asked, either, but here's how I would've had them: I saw Wentz make special, otherwordly throws. I thought he was special the first time I saw him.
Wentz
Darnold
Trubisky
Goff
JOSH ALLEN
Watson
Mayfield
Rosen
Mahomes
I liked Trubisky an awful lot. I liked Watson a lot but my hang up with him was the body. Didn't know if his body plus him being a runner at times would lend itself to longevity and durability. Even though he missed a good chunk of the season, those concerns are a little more alleviated now. I think he could be even better than Wentz.
I almost put Allen ahead of Goff. Mahomes comes in last but I don't dislike him. It's more about him being from that 'air raid' spread college offense and more questions about his game translating.
I have a pretty good opinion of all of these guys, though, just questions about Mahomes.
I can flip flop Mayfield and Rosen...I think their success and failure will in large part be due to where they land in the NFL. Mayfield reminds me a lot of Drew Brees. And I've long felt that Brees, in other cities, might not have been the QB legend he is in New Orleans. If Brees played for the Giants, I don't think he would've had the career he's had. Similarly, if Mayfield goes to Arizona, I think he'll be a much better QB than if he were to go to Cleveland or Buffalo. I think Rosen can succeed anywhere they have a good offensive line, but it has to be the right offensive system, too. I think Rosen will be a good WCO QB. I don't want Rosen in a vertical passing attack.
In a lot of ways, doing a list like this is tough if you don't do what Sy does, where he can fall back on his notes and see his grades. You have to rely on your memory and bias can creep in. But I also know I really felt Trubisky was the best QB in his draft class and still believe he will be a franchise QB. And I did think Wentz was special.
And I do think Darnold is as close to Wentz as a QB prospect you can expect. For me to have him above Trubisky, who I also loved, should tell you the excitement I have about Darnold.
31 QBs have won 51 Super Bowls.
Of the 31, 14 were drafted in the first round at or above #7, 4 were drafted later in the first round, and 13 were drafted in the second round or lower.
Of course, the QB with the most SB wins (5, Brady) is a sixth-round pick, player 199. A QB tied for the second-most SB wins (4, Montana) is a third-round pick, player #82.
It really does not matter in which round you pick your QB (in terms of SB wins). OTOH, it matters a lot who does the picking. If Bill Belichick or Bill Walsh are running your draft board, you're good to go. If you are the Cleveland Browns, you can go at #1 year after year and still be losers.
31 QBs have won 51 Super Bowls.
Of the 31, 14 were drafted in the first round at or above #7, 4 were drafted later in the first round, and 13 were drafted in the second round or lower.
Of course, the QB with the most SB wins (5, Brady) is a sixth-round pick, player 199. A QB tied for the second-most SB wins (4, Montana) is a third-round pick, player #82.
It really does not matter in which round you pick your QB (in terms of SB wins). OTOH, it matters a lot who does the picking. If Bill Belichick or Bill Walsh are running your draft board, you're good to go. If you are the Cleveland Browns, you can go at #1 year after year and still be losers.
If you don't think you can get a QB in THIS draft class that will be one of those championship QB's, then it is not absurd. You basically made the point with the last sentence. Get the wrong guy, and it's a wasted pick. You have to trust your evaluation. Neither forgoing a QB at #2 or drafting a QB at #2 is either absurd or a great decision. It just comes down to your evaluation, and you have to have a conviction. If no conviction about the QB that is available, you pick a player that you do have a conviction about. Just because there are a lot of championship QBs that are drafted at high picks, that doesn't mean you should pick Alex Smith #1. Remember, for all those guys that won championships, you also have Sam Bradford, David Carr, Mike Vick, Tim Couch, Jamarcus Russell, and a bunch of other guys that haven't yet proven that they were worth the #1 overall pick...like Jameis Winston, for example.
It has to be the right player, if you force it, that's how you become the Cleveland Browns.
Now let’s look at the considered top three Rosen, Darnold and Allen if you add in Eli in his rookie year who would you choose last. IMO Eli would be a close battle with Allen but loose out due to physical skills, size and upside. Give Eli the smarts because he has always been given that but Eli in his rookie year is the same Eli today. Rosen and Darnold both have done everything to push Eli off the same field skill level wise. If you did the same thing with Rosen, Darnold, Allen and Luck most would give Luck the top spot and the other three in the same order. That’s the difference in this three player group they are without a doubt above Eli but below Luck.
How do you not draft one at #2, only if your willing to bet your job on Eli anyone doing that at this point in his career is making a looser bet. These three guys come with faults but they also come with some of the best QB tools to work with since Luck. DG may be a gambling man we will all find out soon time will reveal all. Today I draft Allen ahead of Darnold just because of his physical tools and the NFL game. If I walked home with Darnold I’d be smiling brightly also. If the pick is Rosen I just see to much of a resemblance of Eli game in him don’t want another ten years of that again. This draft class looks locked into four or six first round picks at QB which let’s you know the talent level is not bad at all QB this draft.
One thing to also consider if four to six QB’s are taking in the first round then that’s four or six teams not using a number one pick on a QB for several years. Then the question becomes what does the next two years of QB’s coming out look like? This was the class everyone was waiting on what does the future hold.
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That's just absurd.
31 QBs have won 51 Super Bowls.
Of the 31, 14 were drafted in the first round at or above #7, 4 were drafted later in the first round, and 13 were drafted in the second round or lower.
Of course, the QB with the most SB wins (5, Brady) is a sixth-round pick, player 199. A QB tied for the second-most SB wins (4, Montana) is a third-round pick, player #82.
It really does not matter in which round you pick your QB (in terms of SB wins). OTOH, it matters a lot who does the picking. If Bill Belichick or Bill Walsh are running your draft board, you're good to go. If you are the Cleveland Browns, you can go at #1 year after year and still be losers.
If you don't think you can get a QB in THIS draft class that will be one of those championship QB's, then it is not absurd. You basically made the point with the last sentence. Get the wrong guy, and it's a wasted pick. You have to trust your evaluation. Neither forgoing a QB at #2 or drafting a QB at #2 is either absurd or a great decision. It just comes down to your evaluation, and you have to have a conviction. If no conviction about the QB that is available, you pick a player that you do have a conviction about. Just because there are a lot of championship QBs that are drafted at high picks, that doesn't mean you should pick Alex Smith #1. Remember, for all those guys that won championships, you also have Sam Bradford, David Carr, Mike Vick, Tim Couch, Jamarcus Russell, and a bunch of other guys that haven't yet proven that they were worth the #1 overall pick...like Jameis Winston, for example.
It has to be the right player, if you force it, that's how you become the Cleveland Browns.
Though, of those listed QBs, it would be hard to argue that they were the wrong pick at the time, other than Russell. I'm trying to think of the last time a QB went in the top five and the reaction was immediately negative by evaluators. Trubisky? Was there one before that?
If you did not win the big game your required to be drafting the BPA at hopefully a team weakness. This is the concern with having possibly made a commitment to Eli and drafting a player at the same position. Now you have to wait a year and half or two before you might see any returns in your #2, pick realistically. Can a team which just won three games afford to wait one or two years on such a major investment?
In the end they are all draft picks this class has been hyped for years there is a total of six possible #1, QB’s that’s a statement not normally heard. They all come with strength and weakness luck be a lady tonight if you draft one to be the next face of your franchise.