Disclaimer: this is a simplification for conversation purposes and does not infer this is how you prefer to frame the QB debate.
In a conversation yesterday Sy had said he doesn't see any of the QBs in this draft as being Special or Elite. I'll be honest, I'm not exactly sure what that means, but was hoping to ground some discussion relative to NFL QBs today.
The way I see things, there is a very select group of truly elite QBs in the NFL today. Tom Brady, for sure, also Aaron Rodgers. Peyton Manning was at that level as well.
Drew Brees is probably a slight bit below, you could argue Ben Roethlisberger as well --depending on how you view him.
An then there is a tier of guys who are very good, who you can win SBs with and generally keep their teams competitive when there is some bit of talent around them to work with. Eli Manning was in this group (and may still be), which I would suggest include the likes of (in no particular order) Cam Newton, Matt Ryan, Matthew Stafford, Russell Wilson, and Phillip Rivers. This is the group I would call true franchise QBs, and Tony Romo would have been in there as well.
We can quibble over moving a guy here or there up or down based on preference, but ~in general~ I would suggest there is not a HUGE difference between the QBs I've listed in that group vs. each other (most have won SBs, MVPs, or among the statistical leaders in most years), and none are at the Brady/AR level.
Some of the QBs I would put in a tier below are Flacco (despite his SB), Dalton, and K Cousins.
There are also a whole lot of younger QBs I could not say where they belong yet as the picture for them is still coming into focus.
So tying this into the draft, how good of a QB would you need to envision a prospect will become to warrant/justify selecting him @2 (opposed to taking another player, who will likely become a really good player at a different position, or a say a trade down)?
To me, I could simplify the decision in my own mind as: if they believe one of the QBs projects into that group of what I termed true franchise QBs (basically your top 12 or so), I believe they should be the pick. If not, and they see Flacco or Dalton caliber QB as a more likely outcome, then I would go in a different direction.
JMHO, I'm not sure if greatness is on the horizon for either Darnold and Rosen, but gun to the head, do I project them onto a level of a M Ryan, M Stafford, or P Rivers? Yes --that seems about right to me.
So two questions 1) how good a QB would a prospect have to project to becoming to justify a selection @2, in your mind, and 2) what tier a QB do you envision for the top QBs in this draft, if forced to say?
Thoughts?
It's like going into the new car dealership, very high end automobiles, you pay for a Bentley or Maserati and nine months later the chances are what you're looking at in the garage (or worse, on the bench) is a Buick.
(I agree with several above that UberAlias in his excellent OP de-valued Brees a bit: when he's hot, which is usually, only Brady and Rodgers when they're hot are on a par or better, and Luck was viewed as sure a QB prospect as had come along in years)
At the end of the day, the Giants need to have conviction in their (new) protocols and evaluation process, and as fans we have to hope that DG's draft team has it right. If the conviction is not there for one of Darnold or Rosen or another, then go in a different direction, trade down, whatever.
I kno you didn’t ask me but I was a HUGE fan of Wentz when he was coming out of SDSU. His tape was amazing. Pissed he went to the Eagles. Not surprised he had the type of year he had as I honestly see him being almost Rodges like. Same reason I like Allen.
I liked Hackenburg his first season at Penn State (honestly I like him coming out of th UA All American game). But his problem was not reading coverages well and bad decisions. Allen’s problem is he’s rather gun it than throw with anticipation and touch. I don’t think that’s ALL on him though. His WRs were mostly new guys who didn’t get separation and occasionally ran the wrong route. I think he got to a point where he’d just wait to see what the WR did and THEN throw to him as opposed to being timing and rhythm. That occasionally causes him to be late on a pass and HAVE TO gun it to make up for him being late.
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How do you compare Darnold, Rosen, and Mayfield to Jared Goff, Carson Wentz, Mitchell Trubisky, Deshaun Watson, and Patrick Mahomes prior to their drafts not present day.
My Rankings on them would have been.
I kno you didn’t ask me but I was a HUGE fan of Wentz when he was coming out of SDSU. His tape was amazing. Pissed he went to the Eagles. Not surprised he had the type of year he had as I honestly see him being almost Rodges like. Same reason I like Allen.
I liked Hackenburg his first season at Penn State (honestly I like him coming out of th UA All American game). But his problem was not reading coverages well and bad decisions. Allen’s problem is he’s rather gun it than throw with anticipation and touch. I don’t think that’s ALL on him though. His WRs were mostly new guys who didn’t get separation and occasionally ran the wrong route. I think he got to a point where he’d just wait to see what the WR did and THEN throw to him as opposed to being timing and rhythm. That occasionally causes him to be late on a pass and HAVE TO gun it to make up for him being late.
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Even if they don't like the QB on the board for them at 2, they should be in a great position to trade down. Jets, Broncos and Bills are either in striking distance and/or have the ammunition and motive to make the jump. The position is extremely subjective team to team and the only QB they deem worthy may be sitting there at the Giants pick.
I agree, if they don't like a QB then trade down pick up a 2019 1st round pick plus a 2nd this year or next. The Giants will then have two first round picks to get their QB next year.
Even going back to Andrew Luck, people were nitpicking every minute detail to his game, whether his arm was strong enough..
And no offense to SY, I know he knows his shit, but opinions vary from team to team, and who knows what kind of grade the Giants have on any of these QB's.
Baren,I see it the same. I think the problem of
the 'thinking class' is they have a tendency to create
far more confusing data that often just creates
'paralysis'. With most, the main issues are skill
of the task (throwing),leadership (will men follow)
pyschology, character (can he still perform when
lady luck turns her back) Intelligence (have presence,
knows what surrounds him and can overcome fear allowing
his intelligence to find the win) and seems lucky.
But, of course when dealing with people it's always
a crap shoot. People change~ :)
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How do you compare Darnold, Rosen, and Mayfield to Jared Goff, Carson Wentz, Mitchell Trubisky, Deshaun Watson, and Patrick Mahomes prior to their drafts not present day.
My Rankings on them would have been.
I kno you didn’t ask me but I was a HUGE fan of Wentz when he was coming out of SDSU. His tape was amazing. Pissed he went to the Eagles. Not surprised he had the type of year he had as I honestly see him being almost Rodges like. Same reason I like Allen.
I liked Hackenburg his first season at Penn State (honestly I like him coming out of th UA All American game). But his problem was not reading coverages well and bad decisions. Allen’s problem is he’s rather gun it than throw with anticipation and touch. I don’t think that’s ALL on him though. His WRs were mostly new guys who didn’t get separation and occasionally ran the wrong route. I think he got to a point where he’d just wait to see what the WR did and THEN throw to him as opposed to being timing and rhythm. That occasionally causes him to be late on a pass and HAVE TO gun it to make up for him being late.
Not that I was asked, either, but here's how I would've had them: I saw Wentz make special, otherwordly throws. I thought he was special the first time I saw him.
Wentz
Darnold
Trubisky
Goff
JOSH ALLEN
Watson
Mayfield
Rosen
Mahomes
I liked Trubisky an awful lot. I liked Watson a lot but my hang up with him was the body. Didn't know if his body plus him being a runner at times would lend itself to longevity and durability. Even though he missed a good chunk of the season, those concerns are a little more alleviated now. I think he could be even better than Wentz.
I almost put Allen ahead of Goff. Mahomes comes in last but I don't dislike him. It's more about him being from that 'air raid' spread college offense and more questions about his game translating.
I have a pretty good opinion of all of these guys, though, just questions about Mahomes.
I can flip flop Mayfield and Rosen...I think their success and failure will in large part be due to where they land in the NFL. Mayfield reminds me a lot of Drew Brees. And I've long felt that Brees, in other cities, might not have been the QB legend he is in New Orleans. If Brees played for the Giants, I don't think he would've had the career he's had. Similarly, if Mayfield goes to Arizona, I think he'll be a much better QB than if he were to go to Cleveland or Buffalo. I think Rosen can succeed anywhere they have a good offensive line, but it has to be the right offensive system, too. I think Rosen will be a good WCO QB. I don't want Rosen in a vertical passing attack.
In a lot of ways, doing a list like this is tough if you don't do what Sy does, where he can fall back on his notes and see his grades. You have to rely on your memory and bias can creep in. But I also know I really felt Trubisky was the best QB in his draft class and still believe he will be a franchise QB. And I did think Wentz was special.
And I do think Darnold is as close to Wentz as a QB prospect you can expect. For me to have him above Trubisky, who I also loved, should tell you the excitement I have about Darnold.
31 QBs have won 51 Super Bowls.
Of the 31, 14 were drafted in the first round at or above #7, 4 were drafted later in the first round, and 13 were drafted in the second round or lower.
Of course, the QB with the most SB wins (5, Brady) is a sixth-round pick, player 199. A QB tied for the second-most SB wins (4, Montana) is a third-round pick, player #82.
It really does not matter in which round you pick your QB (in terms of SB wins). OTOH, it matters a lot who does the picking. If Bill Belichick or Bill Walsh are running your draft board, you're good to go. If you are the Cleveland Browns, you can go at #1 year after year and still be losers.
31 QBs have won 51 Super Bowls.
Of the 31, 14 were drafted in the first round at or above #7, 4 were drafted later in the first round, and 13 were drafted in the second round or lower.
Of course, the QB with the most SB wins (5, Brady) is a sixth-round pick, player 199. A QB tied for the second-most SB wins (4, Montana) is a third-round pick, player #82.
It really does not matter in which round you pick your QB (in terms of SB wins). OTOH, it matters a lot who does the picking. If Bill Belichick or Bill Walsh are running your draft board, you're good to go. If you are the Cleveland Browns, you can go at #1 year after year and still be losers.
If you don't think you can get a QB in THIS draft class that will be one of those championship QB's, then it is not absurd. You basically made the point with the last sentence. Get the wrong guy, and it's a wasted pick. You have to trust your evaluation. Neither forgoing a QB at #2 or drafting a QB at #2 is either absurd or a great decision. It just comes down to your evaluation, and you have to have a conviction. If no conviction about the QB that is available, you pick a player that you do have a conviction about. Just because there are a lot of championship QBs that are drafted at high picks, that doesn't mean you should pick Alex Smith #1. Remember, for all those guys that won championships, you also have Sam Bradford, David Carr, Mike Vick, Tim Couch, Jamarcus Russell, and a bunch of other guys that haven't yet proven that they were worth the #1 overall pick...like Jameis Winston, for example.
It has to be the right player, if you force it, that's how you become the Cleveland Browns.
Now let’s look at the considered top three Rosen, Darnold and Allen if you add in Eli in his rookie year who would you choose last. IMO Eli would be a close battle with Allen but loose out due to physical skills, size and upside. Give Eli the smarts because he has always been given that but Eli in his rookie year is the same Eli today. Rosen and Darnold both have done everything to push Eli off the same field skill level wise. If you did the same thing with Rosen, Darnold, Allen and Luck most would give Luck the top spot and the other three in the same order. That’s the difference in this three player group they are without a doubt above Eli but below Luck.
How do you not draft one at #2, only if your willing to bet your job on Eli anyone doing that at this point in his career is making a looser bet. These three guys come with faults but they also come with some of the best QB tools to work with since Luck. DG may be a gambling man we will all find out soon time will reveal all. Today I draft Allen ahead of Darnold just because of his physical tools and the NFL game. If I walked home with Darnold I’d be smiling brightly also. If the pick is Rosen I just see to much of a resemblance of Eli game in him don’t want another ten years of that again. This draft class looks locked into four or six first round picks at QB which let’s you know the talent level is not bad at all QB this draft.
One thing to also consider if four to six QB’s are taking in the first round then that’s four or six teams not using a number one pick on a QB for several years. Then the question becomes what does the next two years of QB’s coming out look like? This was the class everyone was waiting on what does the future hold.
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That's just absurd.
31 QBs have won 51 Super Bowls.
Of the 31, 14 were drafted in the first round at or above #7, 4 were drafted later in the first round, and 13 were drafted in the second round or lower.
Of course, the QB with the most SB wins (5, Brady) is a sixth-round pick, player 199. A QB tied for the second-most SB wins (4, Montana) is a third-round pick, player #82.
It really does not matter in which round you pick your QB (in terms of SB wins). OTOH, it matters a lot who does the picking. If Bill Belichick or Bill Walsh are running your draft board, you're good to go. If you are the Cleveland Browns, you can go at #1 year after year and still be losers.
If you don't think you can get a QB in THIS draft class that will be one of those championship QB's, then it is not absurd. You basically made the point with the last sentence. Get the wrong guy, and it's a wasted pick. You have to trust your evaluation. Neither forgoing a QB at #2 or drafting a QB at #2 is either absurd or a great decision. It just comes down to your evaluation, and you have to have a conviction. If no conviction about the QB that is available, you pick a player that you do have a conviction about. Just because there are a lot of championship QBs that are drafted at high picks, that doesn't mean you should pick Alex Smith #1. Remember, for all those guys that won championships, you also have Sam Bradford, David Carr, Mike Vick, Tim Couch, Jamarcus Russell, and a bunch of other guys that haven't yet proven that they were worth the #1 overall pick...like Jameis Winston, for example.
It has to be the right player, if you force it, that's how you become the Cleveland Browns.
Though, of those listed QBs, it would be hard to argue that they were the wrong pick at the time, other than Russell. I'm trying to think of the last time a QB went in the top five and the reaction was immediately negative by evaluators. Trubisky? Was there one before that?
If you did not win the big game your required to be drafting the BPA at hopefully a team weakness. This is the concern with having possibly made a commitment to Eli and drafting a player at the same position. Now you have to wait a year and half or two before you might see any returns in your #2, pick realistically. Can a team which just won three games afford to wait one or two years on such a major investment?
In the end they are all draft picks this class has been hyped for years there is a total of six possible #1, QB’s that’s a statement not normally heard. They all come with strength and weakness luck be a lady tonight if you draft one to be the next face of your franchise.