Time of Possession Myth

Not sure I understand how this conclusion is being drawn...

Quote:

So the NFL, from an analytic sense, shouldn't care about the run game, offensively or defensively, if they want to attack the most important factors for winning a game.

The Eagles allowed the fewest rush yards in football this past season and won the Super Bowl. 6th in the NFL in YPA against.

by doing just that...

Superbowl 25: 40:33 to 19:27
Superbowl 46: 37:05 to 22:55

You could say three (including 42, but the statistics indicate that that game was more even, however, if you remember the details we opened up that game with the longest drive in Superbowl history and New England didn't get the ball for the first time until near the end of the first quarter.)

to limit the amount of touches the Bills and Pats (x2) were getting by controlling the clock.

Parcells and Coughlin admitted so.

extended drives in them.

...you control the LOS, you control the game.

And the clock.

Now, it's not a rule without exception. There are turnovers and turnovers for TDs.

But I'm willing to bet the team that has the time of possession generally will win the game.

you have an advantage. Don't care what the statistics say.

More plays/opportunity to score and get the ball in the hands of your playmakeres, while you are able to keep your defense fresh and their defense is worn down. Keep the opponents offense off the field, preventing them from getting in a rhythm.

I know last year, specifically against the Cowboys in week 1, it was really frustrating to watch Dallas put together a 15 play drive and take up more than half of a quarter, and then the Giants would come onto the field and it seemed like they were pressing. Like they had to get a first down. And they couldn't do it. They never got a chance to get in a rhythm on offense.

Something a great play-caller like Shurmur is a good at is dictating the game and creating a rhythm for his offense. Hard to do that when your defense can't get off the field.

the story things.

that appears to have a good run defense is actually spending time trying to stop passing attacks. If you believe you can pass on a team, that's what you do. Hence, low yards allowed on the ground looks good statistically.


My own experience is that a team that controls the clock well will face a tired/worn out D by the 4th quarter.

The more you have the ball and the less the other team has the ball, the better your chance of scoring/winning.

The end.

We don't need to quantify everything.

...where one teams goes up and down the field, and settles for FGs, or turns it over.

And the other teams makes a few big plays (long TDs, or turnover TDs) and ends up winning the game.

But generally games don't go that way.

You have the ball, the other teams doesn't. And that gives you more opportunities to score......

It's why Chip Kelly was incorrect and unrealistic on how to operate an offense...he wasn't worried about TOP, he was worried about points. Well, sure points is important, duh. But to get to points, you need to possess the ball. And not wear down your defense...........

In comment 13836215 mrvax said:

Quote:

that appears to have a good run defense is actually spending time trying to stop passing attacks. If you believe you can pass on a team, that's what you do. Hence, low yards allowed on the ground looks good statistically. My own experience is that a team that controls the clock well will face a tired/worn out D by the 4th quarter.

Essentially that's what the article breaks it down too. Running or stopping the run has not Statistical benefit. Compiling yards and more importantly first downs is the biggest key to victory.

unless that is the game you play. How many games have we seen lost because teams scored too early leaving enough time on the clock for the other team? Time of possession is sort of synonymous with the ability to control the clock. Those are two different things. Being able to eat the clock up when you have a lead late in the 4th is a huge advantage if you can accomplish that. Being able to control the clock to slow down a potent offense from getting into a rhythm is huge too. Problem is that few teams have the ability to do that in today's NFL. Defense are lacking and so are OLs. So, teams just want to be able to put points up one way or another and that usually comes from the air. However, we may see an old trend rearing its head again and that is teams sticking with the running game with all these good RBs coming into the league. Teams have gotten away from the run in favor of the pass but defenses have gotten smaller and faster so the way to battle that is to stay ahead of the curve and get a physical offense that'll be able to pound the rock. You still have to be able to pass in this league though.

a little surprising. You'd think a team that runs the ball well is the team that keeps the TOP and probably win.

I never understood why Chip Kelly was not concerned about TOP when we see with our own eyes how tired a defense can get.

In comment 13836218 BigBlueDownTheShore said:

Quote:

Essentially that's what the article breaks it down too. Running or stopping the run has not Statistical benefit. Compiling yards and more importantly first downs is the biggest key to victory.

Strange that a coach's mantra is "run the ball and stop the run", but it has no statistical benefit. Yards and 1st downs are obviously going to be important.

Maybe the saying should be changed to "run the ball and stop the run during key times in the game."

In comment 13836235 mrvax said:

Quote:

In comment 13836218 BigBlueDownTheShore said: Quote: Essentially that's what the article breaks it down too. Running or stopping the run has not Statistical benefit. Compiling yards and more importantly first downs is the biggest key to victory. Strange that a coach's mantra is "run the ball and stop the run", but it has no statistical benefit. Yards and 1st downs are obviously going to be important. Maybe the saying should be changed to "run the ball and stop the run during key times in the game."

I don't really think it is strange. Football has become basketball on grass but it always comes down to imposing your will on your opponent. The best way to do that is to run the ball and stop the run. That is really what it is about. The Pats are always looked at this juggernaut but the teams that beat them are the teams that impose their will on them. That is exactly what philly did. Jacksonville runs the ball but they didn't have the fortune of having either a great passer or the times Bortles did play well they had other breakdowns. There are many ways to win in the NFL but you cannot preach run faster and cover harder. It just sounds weird. Every OL will tell you they'd rather run the ball because that is when they get to go on the attack instead of taking the hits in pass protection. It is more of a mentality than anything else.

Lots of negative correlations do not exclude a positive causation. Obviously it is stupid to try to win TOP, because the goal is to try to win the game. While TOP can be used to win the game, there are other ways to reach that goal that do not exclude TOP as an exploitable tactic.

If nothing correlates with winning, then winning would just be a random event. Was that his conclusion? Teams could save alot of money on coaching, staffing etc...

In comment 13836267 WideRight said:

Quote:

Lots of negative correlations do not exclude a positive causation. Obviously it is stupid to try to win TOP, because the goal is to try to win the game. While TOP can be used to win the game, there are other ways to reach that goal that do not exclude TOP as an exploitable tactic. If nothing correlates with winning, then winning would just be a random event. Was that his conclusion? Teams could save alot of money on coaching, staffing etc...

The longer TOP you have, the chances you have a turnover also increase. Which can hurt you big time. Essentially both teams have the ball the same number of times whether you bleed the clock or go guns a blazing offensively.

ugh

either scores more than the other team or conversely gives up less points.

Focus on one of those strategies and you got something...