My initial thought was absolutely not and I'm still not convinced.
But, after doing some quick google searches (I won't call it "analysis") and looking at the teams in the league that were most recently successful, of the 12 playoff teams in 2017 9 of them were in the top 10 rushing the ball. Only Dallas was in the top 10 and missed the playoffs.
9 of the top 10 made the playoffs, including New England and Philly in yards per game rushing.
If you expand it to top 15 you get 11 of 12 playoff teams, only the Steelers missed.
Also in ypc 7 of the top 10 made the playoffs.
So, the question then comes is there a correlation like Gettleman says, and if so, which comes first OL or RB.
This also completely ignores defense for now (like the Super Bowl, LOL), but I wanted to see the impact rushing had.
I still feel like OL is probably safer than RB, but no position is completely safe with poor scouting.
This chart is a couple years old and only includes 2005 to 2014 and "success" is defined with some liberties around games started, but I believe it's directionally accurate.
Draft success by position by round
1st Round - OL (83%) LB (70%) TE (67%) DB (64%) QB (63%) WR (58%) RB (58%) DL (58%)
2nd Round - OL (70%) LB (55%) TE (50%) WR (49%) DB (46%) QB (27%) DL (26%) RB (25%)
3rd Round - OL (40%) TE (39%) LB (34%) DL (27%) WR (25%) DB (24%) QB (17%) RB (16%)
4th Round - DL (37%) TE (33%) OL (29%) LB (16%) WR(12%) DB (11%) RB (11%) QB (8%)
5th Round - TE (32%) DB (17%) WR (16%) OL (16%) DL (13%) RB (9%) LB (4%) QB (0%)
6th Round - TE (26%) OL (16%) DL (13%) WR (9%) DB (8%) RB (6%) LB (5%) QB (0%)
7th Round - DB (11%) OL (9%) QB (6%) WR (5%) DL (3%) LB (2%) RB (0%) TE (0%) |
But, we need to be very careful here. Many Eli fans don't seem to realize or willing to accept he's declining rather sharply. We could have a rare opportunity to draft a blue chip back to back with Eli.
I hate the line of thinking that "you don't draft a RB 2nd overall"
It depends on the player, the team you already have, etc.
If Barkley has a truly special skill set, then take him. He can change games from the RB position the same way we've seen Beckham do as a WR.
Bell/Brown carry PIT's offense big time. Having our own pair of "Killer B's" in Beckham/Barkley would be very exciting.
I still think I prefer QB @ 2 in this draft - but if Barkley is the best player in the whole damn thing, then there's absolutely no reason why 2nd overall should be too high to draft him.
Even the success rate on your chart is identical in round 1.
A RB is as worthy of #2 as any other position.
If a QB matches his grade or slightly below, take the QB.
That is all.
RB's NFL lives are just to short. A QB, if chosen correctly, can last 15+ years (See Eli, Peyton, Brady).
Rb's are lucky if they make it to 8 years this day and age. If they are lucky enough to hit 30, then you are on a year to year basis with them.
WR's can play into their late 30's as well.
Also, of the playoff teams with good running games, it'd be nice to know where those RB's were drafted.
If a QB matches his grade or slightly below, take the QB.
That is all.
This is kind of my thoughts as well. I wouldn't rule it out if the player is a special talent, but if there was a QB available that was even close to that grade and we needed a QB, I take the QB.
if that means RB I'm fine with it, if it means OL I'm fine with that.
the stats don't lie, and no scouting group is perfect, so for every Zeke Elliott or Leonard Fournette there is historically a Trent Richardson or CJ Spiller.
A lot riding on this pick.
Lately though the highly drafted RB's all seem like HR's. Fournette, McCaffrey, Elliott, Melvin Gordon, and Gurley, the only top 15 RB's drafted the past 5 years. McCaffrey might have some lingering questions about pure rushing, but from a production standpoint overall I don't think so.
Eli is 37 - he's going to decline at some point. Some people just don't want to acknowledge this for whatever reason.
He's already declining.
I still think he can be a starter in this league - but Eli isn't carrying a team anymore like he did in 2011. The team around him needs to be very good.
Though Minny had a better OL than we do at this point, drafting AP in spite of his persona and more important his injury situation, was a good move.
If you dont want a QB, then you take Barkley
If you dont want Barkley either, then you trade down because anyone else you take at that spot will be a reach.
If we stick with Eli we're just going to have this conversation again next year.
His contract is an easier out next Winter, he's got PLENTY to prove as to what he's capable of now. Eli version 2017 was very ordinary at best for the most part, and he's no longer the player he was during his last really good season of ... 2014?
He's 37 and in decline, you could argue how steep but it's semantics.
Sure, it's pretty simple.
I guarantee you no one in the Giants organization that's opinion matters consider this decision simple.
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Barkley will probably be the pick if the QB doesn't carry the grade. If he does, then you go QB. Pretty simple.
Sure, it's pretty simple.
I guarantee you no one in the Giants organization that's opinion matters consider this decision simple.
Well, yes, obviously. But my opinion (and Sy's, Jon, or anyone else on this board) doesn't matter. I'm not sure I understand your point.
and it's that simple.
I think there are probably more legit scenarios than that they are considering.
If Shurmur and Shula think that they can turn this guy into a pro bowl QB, then you take Barkley.
and it's that simple.
I think there are probably more legit scenarios than that they are considering.
Sure, but i think those scenarios rely on other teams trading up and Giants acquiring more picks, which we know as of this point hasn't happened yet.
For example, if the Giants stay at 2, I just don't see them taking a guy like Chubb, Fitzpatrick, Nelson, etc. If they stay at 2 and take a guy that is not a QB or elite talent at RB like Barkley, that would be a complete shock to pretty much everyone on this board. Maybe I'm wrong...but I just don't see that happening unless they trade down. Which they might obviously.
NE-no high picks, committee
KC-Hunt-3rd round
Pitt-Bell-2nd round
Jax-Fournette-4th overall
Buff-McCoy-2nd round
Tenn-Murray 3rd round/Henry 2nd round
Philly-no top pick
Minny-Murray-6th round/McKinnon 3rd round
NO-Ingram 28 overall/Kamara 3rd ound
Rams-Gurley-10th overall
Car-cam makes too much of a difference
Atl-4th round
This time 10 years ago, Andre Woodson and Brian Brohm were still considered future franchise QB's and projected early in mock drafts (Brohm did go 2nd round IIRC)
Still time for significant movement on teams draft boards IMO.
in 2016 around this time Laremy Tunsil was still close to consensus #1 pick, in 2015 La'el Collins was still in the 1st round at this time.
I know those are isolated character examples (other than Woodson who was exposed in a major way in the college post-season and combine/workouts), but point is it's still kind of early to have things broken down to simple options IMO.
Two FA O-linemen. Barkley at 2 if he is there. Another O-lineman mid-draft, if the value is there.
I'm feeling pretty good about things, if that were to play out.
NE-no high picks, committee
KC-Hunt-3rd round
Pitt-Bell-2nd round
Jax-Fournette-4th overall
Buff-McCoy-2nd round
Tenn-Murray 3rd round/Henry 2nd round
Philly-no top pick
Minny-Murray-6th round/McKinnon 3rd round
NO-Ingram 28 overall/Kamara 3rd ound
Rams-Gurley-10th overall
Car-cam makes too much of a difference
Atl-4th round
Right, I looked at that too, Fournette and Gurley (and Mccaffrey) high picks, the rest not. Ingram was late 1st.
I don't think it proves or disproves anything, you can't make conclusions on this other than RB's can be obtained multiple different ways and your running game can still succeed.
McCoy, Demarco Murray, and Ajayi were trades, Gillislee (who I don't even think was active in the SB) was an RFA signee, Burkhead, Blount, L. Murray a UFA.
The question should be, will Cleveland take Barkley with the 1st pick and take the best QB left on the board at 4....that is the real question.
NE-no high picks, committee
KC-Hunt-3rd round
Pitt-Bell-2nd round
Jax-Fournette-4th overall
Buff-McCoy-2nd round
Tenn-Murray 3rd round/Henry 2nd round
Philly-no top pick
Minny-Murray-6th round/McKinnon 3rd round
NO-Ingram 28 overall/Kamara 3rd ound
Rams-Gurley-10th overall
Car-cam makes too much of a difference
Atl-4th round
Yes - the OP doesn't make the case for drafting a RB number 2. It makes a case for the importance of the running game. Not the same thing. As you show, you don't need to spend premium picks to get good RB's.
Not mine, I'm good with anything.
Barkley
Chubb
maybe even Nelson if they feel that strongly....
I'm going to trust the evaluation (for now).
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TVs will be broken.
Not mine, I'm good with anything.
Mine either. I don't know the actual prospects like most of you, so for me it's "In Gettleman we trust" until the pick stinks then I'll criticize Gettleman.
I won't hate the pick right away no matter who it is.
The only pick I ever remember thinking was a bad pick at the time it was made was Aaron Ross, and that was solely based on age and it wasn't throw the remote bad, just wished they'd drafted a player who wasn't 45 years old.
B. You take the player who you feel will have an instant impact and help transform the Giants team. A player who is going to help the Giants return to the playoffs and (hopefully)compete for a championship in 2018. That guy in this draft, in my opinion, would be Barkley.
It's a tough decision, and neither is wrong in my opinion. If you are set on one particular QB over the other, say Darnold, and you feel the other is a significant downgrade, it makes the decision a lot easier if the Browns take the guy that you like. If you have similar grades on multiple top QB's, than it will be a tough decision.
Quote:
In comment 13838342 robbieballs2003 said:
Quote:
TVs will be broken.
Not mine, I'm good with anything.
Mine either. I don't know the actual prospects like most of you, so for me it's "In Gettleman we trust" until the pick stinks then I'll criticize Gettleman.
I won't hate the pick right away no matter who it is.
The only pick I ever remember thinking was a bad pick at the time it was made was Aaron Ross, and that was solely based on age and it wasn't throw the remote bad, just wished they'd drafted a player who wasn't 45 years old.
I'm in this group as well but there are a ton of fans who are either very passionate about "their guy" or very passionate about not selecting a certain player or position. Probably more so now since we are picking 2nd overall than any time in recent memory. The funny part is that when you pick 2nd it should narrow down the amount of players but this year is very unique.
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Lets look at the playoff teams and where they got their RB's....
NE-no high picks, committee
KC-Hunt-3rd round
Pitt-Bell-2nd round
Jax-Fournette-4th overall
Buff-McCoy-2nd round
Tenn-Murray 3rd round/Henry 2nd round
Philly-no top pick
Minny-Murray-6th round/McKinnon 3rd round
NO-Ingram 28 overall/Kamara 3rd ound
Rams-Gurley-10th overall
Car-cam makes too much of a difference
Atl-4th round
Right, I looked at that too, Fournette and Gurley (and Mccaffrey) high picks, the rest not. Ingram was late 1st.
I don't think it proves or disproves anything, you can't make conclusions on this other than RB's can be obtained multiple different ways and your running game can still succeed.
McCoy, Demarco Murray, and Ajayi were trades, Gillislee (who I don't even think was active in the SB) was an RFA signee, Burkhead, Blount, L. Murray a UFA.
You can't include McCaffrey because he wasn't really a part of the running game. Car has a great running game because of Cam. Can't really include them in this discussion becuase of Cam.
Quote:
Lets look at the playoff teams and where they got their RB's....
NE-no high picks, committee
KC-Hunt-3rd round
Pitt-Bell-2nd round
Jax-Fournette-4th overall
Buff-McCoy-2nd round
Tenn-Murray 3rd round/Henry 2nd round
Philly-no top pick
Minny-Murray-6th round/McKinnon 3rd round
NO-Ingram 28 overall/Kamara 3rd ound
Rams-Gurley-10th overall
Car-cam makes too much of a difference
Atl-4th round
Yes - the OP doesn't make the case for drafting a RB number 2. It makes a case for the importance of the running game. Not the same thing. As you show, you don't need to spend premium picks to get good RB's.
Exactly. This was my thoughts as well. The importance of the running game is vital to success, but you don't need to draft a rb early to have a top running game.
Quote:
In comment 13838342 robbieballs2003 said:
Quote:
TVs will be broken.
Not mine, I'm good with anything.
Mine either. I don't know the actual prospects like most of you, so for me it's "In Gettleman we trust" until the pick stinks then I'll criticize Gettleman.
I won't hate the pick right away no matter who it is.
The only pick I ever remember thinking was a bad pick at the time it was made was Aaron Ross, and that was solely based on age and it wasn't throw the remote bad, just wished they'd drafted a player who wasn't 45 years old.
I assure you that outside of 1 person, nobody on bbi knows the prospects enough to freak out over any pick. Nobody is privvy to enough information to really know.
If the OL stinks Barkley can be Walter Payton and it's not going to help the Giants in 2018.
Gurley, on average, per PFF in 2016 was hit 2.4 times in the backfield every touch before even reaching the line of scrimmage (or something like that).
If the Giants don't significantly upgrade the OL, how much does Barkley really upgrade the Giants in 2018.
Or, maybe some people feel like the Giants OL is more maligned than they deserve the running game struggles were Perkins, Darkwa, Gallman more than the OL.
I don't know the answer, but if I had to guess I'd say the Giants OL was a significant reason for the running game struggles.
Giants were 26th in rushing yards per game and 22nd in ypc in 2017
in 2016 they were 29th in rushing yards per game and 30th in rushing yards per carry.
Target Soldier in FA to play LT, move Flowers to RT.