First of all, the first assumption of a trade down is that we don't like the QBs in this class. The only way we trade down is if we're willing to pass on that decision right now and maximize the value of our high first round pick.
I'm imagining the overlap we're looking to maximize is team's with high future returns on draft picks (i.e. they're likely to have a high draft pick next year OR this year) and teams who have a strong need to trade up (particularly QB needy teams). Considering the possibilities of teams who pick after the Giants who may be searching for a QB:
4. Browns
5. Broncos
6. Jets
12. Bengals
15. Cardinals
17. Chargers
21. Bills
22. Bills
27. Saints
28. Steelers
The Steelers, Saints, Chargers, Cardinals, and Broncos aren't as likely to have increasing value going forward on their draft picks. They're not far away from being competitive and in some cases are already competitive.
But, the Browns, Jets, Bengals, and Bills seem to be farthest from contention and thus likely to yield a high value pick in the 2019 draft.
Obviously, the Jets would be a huge controversy due to geography and little brother syndromes, but I think there are realistic situations where Browns, Bengals or Bills move up.
Bill's Scenario
Looking at what the value of our pick is in the case of a trade up, the Eagles traded up with the Browns to land Wentz at the 2 spot two years ago. They received the 2nd pick and 129th pick (4th rounder) in exchange for the 8th overall pick, the 77th overall pick (3rd rounder), the 100th overall pick (4th rounder), next year's 1st rounder and two year's after's 2nd rounder.
So, say the Bills traded their first round picks and a second rounder this year to get the Buc's 7th pick. We would get the 7th overall pick, their 3rd and 4th, and a future 1st and 2nd.
We could end up with a prospect like Roquan Smith, Quentin Nelson, or Minkah Fitzpatrick in the first, an additional 3rd (say, Jamarco Jones) and 4th (say Shaquem Griffin), and picks in future drafts, all from our #2 pick.
Bengal's Scenario
The Bengals could end up pulling a semi-Redskins move and go hard after a QB from their #12 spot. Like the Redskins with RGIII, they're willing to give up multiple firsts, the 12th pick, their 2nd rounder and their next two firsts. We'd end up with a lower tier prospect, maybe Connor Williams or Derrius Guice, but also a mid second rounder, say WR Anthony Miller, and two future firsts.
Brown's Scenario
The Brown's may decide they like Barkley as much as they like Sam Darnold, so they decide to have their cake and eat it too. This would be like the Giants' infamous Eli trade. They give us their fourth overall pick, a third rounder, and a future first. We have our choice of remaining QB or we could even do another trade down from here.
Do you guys see other potential teams who we may be interested in trading with? Are these scenarios feasible even if not likely?
1st round could be #3 or #4 QB, Nelson, Fitz, the DE, Barkley, Smith or trade back again with Bengals for #1 #2 and next year #1.
Use the 4 2nd round picks on 2 OL an RB and an LB.
The logic doesn't follow. Just because they COULD choose any QB doesn't mean they will. Maybe they like Darnold most, they aren't going to let the chance that he's picked 2nd or 3rd prevent them from landing him. They'd ensure they get HIM and not just any lesser QB.
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The Browns are interested in any of the following QBs - Darnold, Rosen, Allen. If they also want Barkley, they don't have to do anything as they can take Barkley with the first pick, and pick from the remaining three QBs with the 4th pick. They can truly have their cake and eat it to without giving up anything.
The logic doesn't follow. Just because they COULD choose any QB doesn't mean they will. Maybe they like Darnold most, they aren't going to let the chance that he's picked 2nd or 3rd prevent them from landing him. They'd ensure they get HIM and not just any lesser QB.
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In comment 13838539 Beer Man said:
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The Browns are interested in any of the following QBs - Darnold, Rosen, Allen. If they also want Barkley, they don't have to do anything as they can take Barkley with the first pick, and pick from the remaining three QBs with the 4th pick. They can truly have their cake and eat it to without giving up anything.
The logic doesn't follow. Just because they COULD choose any QB doesn't mean they will. Maybe they like Darnold most, they aren't going to let the chance that he's picked 2nd or 3rd prevent them from landing him. They'd ensure they get HIM and not just any lesser QB.
The logic makes perfect sense if they like all three of the top QBs and would be happy with any one of them.
Except I've never heard of that ever happening. The Giants traded a first and third to move up 3 spots to get the QB they wanted. What are the odds the Browns have identical ratings for Darnold, Rosen, Allen, and Mayfield? Zero point zero?
* They have very similar, very high grades on their top 3 QBs. (From among Darnold, Rosen, Mayfield, Allen, and whoever else may shoot up the board.) and they don't have a strong preference for one over the other. This seems unlikely, but it's possible.
Or:
* They don't have early first-round grades on any of the QBs. This is more likely than we Giants fans might think, since we're salivating for a QB ourselves.
Or:
* They have a much higher grade on Barkley than any of the QBs. This could turn out to be the case. Get their top prospect first.
... to name just a few scenarios.
Even if they like one QB prospect, they would still be able to pull of an Eli-style trade. If, say, the Giants drafted Allen the Browns would still be able to offer the #4 pick and some additional picks to get him. It's sort of a reverse version of the Giants-Chargers Eli trade. The Giants drafted Rivers and then traded him and a bunch of picks to get Eli from the Chargers. The teams were pretty committed to trading even before they made their picks, since the Giants didn't really want Rivers and Eli was going to fight going to the Chargers.
Also best case is Jets moving up to 3 and a panic move by Denver or even Clevland to jump them.
I say if Darnolds gone trade down anywhere in the top 10.
It would set up the Giants with 8 picks in rounds 1-4, a nice way to rebuild the Team
Ex.
They could give up picks #22, #55, #96 plus their 2019 2nd round pick to the Bucs for pick #7 .........
Then they could give the Giants picks #7, #21, #53 along with their 2019 1st round (just for good measure) for pick #2
We would end up with #7(G-Nelson), #21(C-Billy Price) on day 1, #34(OLT), #53(RB), #66(LB) on day 2, 2 4th rounders, plus our 5&6 to find another LB, a FS, a return man, etc....
It would set up the Giants with 8 picks in rounds 1-4, a nice way to rebuild the Team
This is my dream scenario although it's possible this could shift to 33 and they have another 2nd I think later in the round?
I really doubt DG drops much further than 5 or 6 picks if he does at all.
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In comment 13838543 adamg said:
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In comment 13838539 Beer Man said:
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The Browns are interested in any of the following QBs - Darnold, Rosen, Allen. If they also want Barkley, they don't have to do anything as they can take Barkley with the first pick, and pick from the remaining three QBs with the 4th pick. They can truly have their cake and eat it to without giving up anything.
The logic doesn't follow. Just because they COULD choose any QB doesn't mean they will. Maybe they like Darnold most, they aren't going to let the chance that he's picked 2nd or 3rd prevent them from landing him. They'd ensure they get HIM and not just any lesser QB.
The logic makes perfect sense if they like all three of the top QBs and would be happy with any one of them.
Except I've never heard of that ever happening. The Giants traded a first and third to move up 3 spots to get the QB they wanted. What are the odds the Browns have identical ratings for Darnold, Rosen, Allen, and Mayfield? Zero point zero?
you take barkley first as the giants are more and more being mocked to take him so they would then hope the giants would be more open to the trade down to 4 with barkley off the board. if the giants really want him and you take the QB first they would be more likely to reject the trade
if the giants lose out on barkley i hope its because they traded back with cleveland with him already gone you then drop back in at 4 and take either chubb or fitzpatrick if indy takes chubb
i can see indy taking a QB more than some think that shoulder of lucks is a worry they could decide to draft some insurance there and if luck comes back trade the QB down the line so ideally the draft goes barkley trade to cleveland for darnold i see the colts taking rosen or allen at 3 that would free up the giants to take chubb at 4 who was already probably their pick at 2 anyway in that senario
and with 2 of the big 4 off the board there would be a possibility the broncos or jets want to move up to take a QB at 4 you could then garner extra picks again and still pick chubb at 5 or 6 and bank yet more picks to fix the holes at OLB and CB with a second trade down and still get the same guy you would have taken at 2 anyway assuming they arent as desperate for the QB as the mock drafters think of course
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In the draft in Barkley and the number 1 QB on their board then it would cost them pick 33,35 and their first 4th round pick. It's overpaying a little but secures the top 2 players in the draft which is what Cleveland needs to do to turn their franchise around. They would still have the last pick of round 2 and then the 1st pick of round 3.
It would set up the Giants with 8 picks in rounds 1-4, a nice way to rebuild the Team
This is my dream scenario although it's possible this could shift to 33 and they have another 2nd I think later in the round?
Yes, the Browns have 3 2nd round picks: 33, 35 and 64. If NYG and Cleveland make a trade, the best scenario is picks 4,33,35 and the first pick of round 4 for our 1st round pick.
If we have to throw our 5th rounder in so be it, but this would be a great way to add a bunch of young players to build this roster.