Made every memory of a football hitting me in the nuts come back all at once. Ignoring the fact that a team who simply passes can't possibly win because the QB would be dead is incorrect premise #1. Completely dismissing one half of offense and declaring it basically pointless can only come from a troubled mind. The author must be jailed and his laptop should be melted for scrap.
The article didn’t discuss or didn’t emphasize is how many quality RBs are found much later in the draft every single year. Barkley nut swingers chirp back with, “well you can get Wilson or Brady etc late” but those are outlier situations. Every single year multiple RBs are drafted in the 2nd round or later that are just as productive if not more productive than 1st round guys.
amidst a bunch of cherry picked data and questionable sources. And there is much that is ignored. While a RB rarely takes over a game, they provide a synergistic element that can be essential to other aspects of the game. I.e., a strong running game can make opposing defenses play differently allowing the passing game to be more successful.
A college RB who's caught my eye, Jordan Chunn of Troy, had a much poorer 2017 than 2016. Read that he was nicked up in 2017, but he had been so effective in 2016 that he was still constantly being faked to in play action and was able to make defenders cheat up to the L.O.S. to stop the run, and the passing game took off. And even though his carries were way down they had a successful season. Where is that reflected in statistics?
3. First-round RBs have high bust rates
A study from a couple years ago on Arrowhead Pride found that among offensive players, no position had a higher 1st round bust rate than RB:
The numbers show us the following outline for finding consistent starters:
1st Round - OL (83%) LB (70%) TE (67%) DB (64%) QB (63%) WR (58%) RB (58%) DL (58%)
1st round RBs are high risk for little reward: a bad bet.
Ok so we shouldn't have drafted Odell Beckham Jr. because the bust rate for WR 58% is the same as RB 58%? This stat makes absolutely no sense.
A lot of those points have become repetitive in Barkley threads. However, for the most part they'll fall on deaf ears.. And even though it will be hard to make a compelling argument against them, a Barkley fan will still blindly try.
Adding a RB early in the draft is often viewed as a luxury pick and the final piece to the puzzle, which I'm sure most of us can agree we're far from.
Also, teams who like to get the most out of their drafts see the value for RBs is in rounds 2-4.
Get the QB and build the foundation while he's marinating behind Eli. In my opinion that's our best play as far as allocating our premium resources and setting ourselves up for sustained success beyond 2018.
is a great prospect, but the Barkley worshippers have gotten annoying. They act as though he is the only good player in the draft. It is bordering on obsession for some.
RB is probably the worst value relative to expected shelf life Â
of other positions. The odds of a back being effective into the second contract are very low vs. Qb or lineman assuming you pick a guy that isn't a bust. I hope we can make a run with Eli, but realistically we want a guy that improves our SB odds now and will still be very effective during our next window. The drop off to the next best back is not so great and will be picked much further down the board.
Made every memory of a football hitting me in the nuts come back all at once. Ignoring the fact that a team who simply passes can't possibly win because the QB would be dead is incorrect premise #1. Completely dismissing one half of offense and declaring it basically pointless can only come from a troubled mind. The author must be jailed and his laptop should be melted for scrap.
Always advocate or reject specific drafting formulas, when in reality I think what separates the elite teams from the average is simply this: they wind up drafting really good players more often than average.
The author is a Seahawks fan who mentions Jalen Ramsey as excellent value as a top 5 pick because his play is commensurate with a top 5 salary. He forgot to mention that for years, Richard Sherman was even better value as an elite CB who was taken 6th. Many of the Seahawks key players were taken later than the first round. It does not mean they provide evidence that you should just not pick anyone in the first.
End of games I think you need to be able to run out the clock if winning, to secure the win, if not the other has a chance to make come backs. I think a great back improves that situation.
Always advocate or reject specific drafting formulas, when in reality I think what separates the elite teams from the average is simply this: they wind up drafting really good players more often than average.
The author is a Seahawks fan who mentions Jalen Ramsey as excellent value as a top 5 pick because his play is commensurate with a top 5 salary. He forgot to mention that for years, Richard Sherman was even better value as an elite CB who was taken 6th. Many of the Seahawks key players were taken later than the first round. It does not mean they provide evidence that you should just not pick anyone in the first.
You completely missed the point of that point in the article. Jalen Ramsey is a value in the article bc his pay puts him in the mid 20s of CBs but he plays at a top 5 CB level. If you take a RB top 5 he’s immediately paid like one of the top RBs in the league.
I’m not sure I agree that rushing the football isn’t important in the NFL. But I absolutely agree it would be lunacy for the Giants (or any other team) to draft a RB at the 2. The risk reward equation, the bust factor, the length of career, the unlikely ability to translate NCAA rushing to the NFL, the consistent abundance of quality RBs available in later rounds, the importance of rookie contacts being under market at their position, all these things point to taking a QB. Throw in the fact that our current QB (who is my all time favorite Giant) is very near the end of his career AND his enormous contract and the fact that we’ll need to pay OBJ and LC and the extremely low probability that Webb will ever be a quality NFL starter and you have to draft a QB. Even if SB is a terrific player he doesn’t fit into what must be the Giants plans to build a winner. We aren’t a quality RB short of being a great team. Not even close.
Hopefully the Browns draft Barkley and we get to pick the best QB available in the draft and we get to see how drafting a RB in the top order of the draft is a mistake.
I'm simply making a different one: Richard Sherman provides just as much of a counterargument against drafting Jalen Ramsey as any successful late round RB does against taking an RB. In other words: none. If a player you pick high winds up being elite, you're not going to regret it.
If Barkley winds up being Marshall Faulk, Ladainian Tomlinson, AP, etc, a team that takes him in the top 20 isn't going to be like, "Aw shit, he's already being paid as a top RB and we're only likely to have him for 8 more years."
I'm simply making a different one: Richard Sherman provides just as much of a counterargument against drafting Jalen Ramsey as any successful late round RB does against taking an RB. In other words: none. If a player you pick high winds up being elite, you're not going to regret it.
If Barkley winds up being Marshall Faulk, Ladainian Tomlinson, AP, etc, a team that takes him in the top 20 isn't going to be like, "Aw shit, he's already being paid as a top RB and we're only likely to have him for 8 more years."
It’s rare to find elite players at certain positions late in the draft. Pointing to outliers like Brady, Sherman, etc doesn’t disprove that. Good/elite RBs are found later in the draft every single year. That’s not an outlier situation, that’s the standard at the RB position.
End of games I think you need to be able to run out the clock if winning, to secure the win, if not the other has a chance to make come backs. I think a great back improves that situation.
You don't need a #2 overall RB to be able to pick up a few 3rd and 4s in the fourth quarter. At #2 you better be getting a dynamic player that is getting you a lead to protect.
And moreover you better hope you're getting an AP, Tomlinson, Curtis Martin type that is going to be effective for 7 to 8 years. And those are an absolute rarity. A pro bowl defensive end, offensive lineman, or quarterback are more likely to be starters in the league for a decade plus.
But I don't think Barkley makes it to 2 anyway. Browns take Barkley 1 and the Giants either take a qb or trade down. That's how I see things unfolding.
About Barkley is the negative yardage.... he’s going to face a lot of loaded boxes and needs a better OL than we have at the moment.
They won’t be able to load the box for long with OBJ and Engram. Additionally, Barkley is such a good receiver that he could take a dump off and take it all the way, as well.
I have lime what I've seen and heard from both Gettleman and Shurmur so far. So, I am going to trust what they do until they provide overwhelming reasons not to. To that end, I personally don't love spending a #2 pick on a QB that has known issues/deficiencies prior to the draft. But, if we go that routd, I'm going to assume that we got the guy we want and we got the best of the QBs available. I will take the same approach ic the pick is Barkley, or Nelson, or we trade down.
About Barkley is the negative yardage.... he’s going to face a lot of loaded boxes and needs a better OL than we have at the moment.
the OL in Penn State was not a very good one. Penn State does not have a good receiving corps.
The Giants are not going to have the same OL next year that they had last year. That much is certain. Shurmur helped rebuild the Viking OL and Gettleman is committed to a quality OL. Barkley doesnt need an ALL WORLD ALL PRO Offensive line to effective. It needs to be proficient. The Giants are going to improve the OL regardless of whether they draft Barkley or not. That only helps him..
Now as far as the loaded fronts. He faced those in college all the time. On the Giants loading a front means bringing a safety down into the box.
This means someone is drawing single coverage. This means Play action is going to work better. It means most likely that Engram or Shepherd will have single coverage. You can still audible out of a run and use Barkley on a wheel route.. or go down the field where his speed is a mismatch for a LB and most safeties..
The will be able to use Barkley if they draft him and he will only help to open up the offense making it less predictable.
I have no idea who the Giants will draft in round one and neither do they right now.. As long as they get a good player.. im good with that.. im actually hoping for a slight trade down.. getting an extra #2,#4 and a #1 next year..
Why do posters have to state views on whether they "trust" Â
The linked article further supports the idea that the running game helps the passing game (and visa-versa).
Quote:
“That was priority number one,” Hixon said of his time in Carolina. “If we can’t run the ball, then it’s going to be harder to pass the ball. So running the ball is priority one and one thing he said that stood out to me was, ‘We have to run the ball when they know we’re going to run the ball and we have to be successful at it.’”
No doubt that some of the stats here very interesting.
No doubt that some of the stats here very interesting.
A college RB who's caught my eye, Jordan Chunn of Troy, had a much poorer 2017 than 2016. Read that he was nicked up in 2017, but he had been so effective in 2016 that he was still constantly being faked to in play action and was able to make defenders cheat up to the L.O.S. to stop the run, and the passing game took off. And even though his carries were way down they had a successful season. Where is that reflected in statistics?
A study from a couple years ago on Arrowhead Pride found that among offensive players, no position had a higher 1st round bust rate than RB:
The numbers show us the following outline for finding consistent starters:
1st Round - OL (83%) LB (70%) TE (67%) DB (64%) QB (63%) WR (58%) RB (58%) DL (58%)
1st round RBs are high risk for little reward: a bad bet.
Ok so we shouldn't have drafted Odell Beckham Jr. because the bust rate for WR 58% is the same as RB 58%? This stat makes absolutely no sense.
the choice is obvious
either draft a QB this year or
If Giants want to go with Eli they trade down hopefully with team that is deeply in rebuilding mode.
they can evaluate Webb - if he isn't answer .
potentially getting top 10 pick next year where they can address QB
Adding a RB early in the draft is often viewed as a luxury pick and the final piece to the puzzle, which I'm sure most of us can agree we're far from.
Also, teams who like to get the most out of their drafts see the value for RBs is in rounds 2-4.
Get the QB and build the foundation while he's marinating behind Eli. In my opinion that's our best play as far as allocating our premium resources and setting ourselves up for sustained success beyond 2018.
Lots of opportunity if the Giants can get more picks. Lots of exciting prospects on both OL & DL. Some really interesting DT's among others.
I think this is a Black Mirror episode.
The author is a Seahawks fan who mentions Jalen Ramsey as excellent value as a top 5 pick because his play is commensurate with a top 5 salary. He forgot to mention that for years, Richard Sherman was even better value as an elite CB who was taken 6th. Many of the Seahawks key players were taken later than the first round. It does not mean they provide evidence that you should just not pick anyone in the first.
The author is a Seahawks fan who mentions Jalen Ramsey as excellent value as a top 5 pick because his play is commensurate with a top 5 salary. He forgot to mention that for years, Richard Sherman was even better value as an elite CB who was taken 6th. Many of the Seahawks key players were taken later than the first round. It does not mean they provide evidence that you should just not pick anyone in the first.
You completely missed the point of that point in the article. Jalen Ramsey is a value in the article bc his pay puts him in the mid 20s of CBs but he plays at a top 5 CB level. If you take a RB top 5 he’s immediately paid like one of the top RBs in the league.
Hopefully the Browns draft Barkley and we get to pick the best QB available in the draft and we get to see how drafting a RB in the top order of the draft is a mistake.
If Barkley winds up being Marshall Faulk, Ladainian Tomlinson, AP, etc, a team that takes him in the top 20 isn't going to be like, "Aw shit, he's already being paid as a top RB and we're only likely to have him for 8 more years."
If Barkley winds up being Marshall Faulk, Ladainian Tomlinson, AP, etc, a team that takes him in the top 20 isn't going to be like, "Aw shit, he's already being paid as a top RB and we're only likely to have him for 8 more years."
It’s rare to find elite players at certain positions late in the draft. Pointing to outliers like Brady, Sherman, etc doesn’t disprove that. Good/elite RBs are found later in the draft every single year. That’s not an outlier situation, that’s the standard at the RB position.
You don't need a #2 overall RB to be able to pick up a few 3rd and 4s in the fourth quarter. At #2 you better be getting a dynamic player that is getting you a lead to protect.
And moreover you better hope you're getting an AP, Tomlinson, Curtis Martin type that is going to be effective for 7 to 8 years. And those are an absolute rarity. A pro bowl defensive end, offensive lineman, or quarterback are more likely to be starters in the league for a decade plus.
They won’t be able to load the box for long with OBJ and Engram. Additionally, Barkley is such a good receiver that he could take a dump off and take it all the way, as well.
stoneman : 2/24/2018 2:47 pm : link : reply
LOL
Elliot's rookie year behind THAT offensive line, and Barkley behind ours....
the OL in Penn State was not a very good one. Penn State does not have a good receiving corps.
The Giants are not going to have the same OL next year that they had last year. That much is certain. Shurmur helped rebuild the Viking OL and Gettleman is committed to a quality OL. Barkley doesnt need an ALL WORLD ALL PRO Offensive line to effective. It needs to be proficient. The Giants are going to improve the OL regardless of whether they draft Barkley or not. That only helps him..
Now as far as the loaded fronts. He faced those in college all the time. On the Giants loading a front means bringing a safety down into the box.
This means someone is drawing single coverage. This means Play action is going to work better. It means most likely that Engram or Shepherd will have single coverage. You can still audible out of a run and use Barkley on a wheel route.. or go down the field where his speed is a mismatch for a LB and most safeties..
The will be able to use Barkley if they draft him and he will only help to open up the offense making it less predictable.
I have no idea who the Giants will draft in round one and neither do they right now.. As long as they get a good player.. im good with that.. im actually hoping for a slight trade down.. getting an extra #2,#4 and a #1 next year..
Your trust or non-trust in them is irrelevant. It has no impact whatsoever.
If they do things you like then state it. If they don't then criticize it. But save your breath on the benefit of the doubt crap...
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