I was going to post this on the Romo isn't better than Eli thread, but thought this deserved its own treatment.
Kurt Warner has been one of the most vocal critics of Eli and even recently said that Eli was a "borderline" HOF case when every other HOF member asked said Eli belongs in Canton. What I don't like about Warner is not his unwarranted criticism but that it seems so hypocritical. Warner had an up and down career that included more than its fair share of failure and good fortune. And unlike Eli, I don't think anyone can argue that Warner ever carried his team. When Warner was great - and there were times when he was great - he was great with a lot of other great players around him. I don't think you can say that about Eli.
Linked below is an [old] article from FO which actually makes the case that Warner
belongs in the HOF. I think Warner is the most overrated QB in Canton but I don't really have a problem with him being there. But consider some of the arguments against Warner. And especially consider some of these warts that Warner had, like being a front runner and essentially unable to comeback against good teams, he played one game in precipitation (an unbelievable stat in and of itself) and consider the extraordinary talent Warner had around him. And then think about Eli.
In his career, Warner was 2-44 (.043) when trailing by at least 10 points at any time in the game. The league average is around 15 percent.
Warner was 9-30 (.231) at fourth-quarter comeback opportunities, which are only for deficits of 1-8 points. That's below average too, but the interesting part is Warner's nine wins had an average deficit of just 2.2 points -- the smallest average deficit for any quarterback with at least nine fourth-quarter comeback wins in NFL history.
On the road, Warner had just two fourth-quarter comeback wins. They came against the 2005 49ers (4-12; 30th-ranked scoring defense) and 2005 Rams (6-10; 31st-ranked scoring defense). How big were those deficits? One point each.
Warner was 0-42 when trailing by at least six points in the fourth quarter, including 0-23 when he had possession in a one-score game. That's just unfathomable for someone who quarterbacked four different 400-point teams.
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Not exactly a clutch QB that could bring his team back from anything. Great frontrunner, lousy comeback QB.
And there's this too about all the talent around Warner:
When Warner was lighting up the scoreboard, he played with an arsenal of weapons few quarterbacks ever get to experience. Isaac Bruce, Torry Holt, Anquan Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald are all 10,000-yard wide receivers who will receive HOF consideration. HOF running back Marshall Faulk was the most dynamic offensive player in the league in 1999-2001, and he's one of the best receiving backs ever. Faulk, not Warner, was the player Bill Belichick sought to shut down in Super Bowl XXXVI.
Warner threw 50.5 percent of his career regular-season passes to those five players. He also played with talented receivers such as Amani Toomer, Jeremy Shockey, Ike Hilliard, Steve Breaston, Ricky Proehl and Az-Zahir Hakim. Orlando Pace, Warner's left tackle in St. Louis, is also eligible for Canton this year and probably has the best case of these GSOT Rams. Warner had just about everything on offense except for a good tight end. |
When Warner was benched or went down with injury his replacements did just fine.
| We know how Bulger outperformed Warner in 2002-03, but that wasn't the only time. When a capable quarterback like Trent Green stepped in for Warner in 2000, he actually had a higher passer rating (101.8) and DVOA (28.6%) than Warner. If not for Rodney Harrison injuring Green in the 1999 preseason, we might be talking about Green's HOF case today. |
Like Brees, another QB people say is so much better than Eli, Warner played mostly in ideal weather conditions or indoors.
| Beyond the weapons, there were other factors contributing to Warner's great statistics. He played in a dome with the Rams and there was no such thing as bad weather in Arizona with that retractable-roof stadium. Warner played in one game with precipitation in his career. He lost 47-7 in New England in 2008, completing 6-of-18 passes for 30 yards. |
Warner fattened up on lousy teams.
Warner also played most of his career in the NFC West when it was the laughingstock of the league. Soft schedules boosted his early start. The 1999 Rams are the only team since 1970 to play just one team with a winning record in the regular season. They lost. Warner went 36-13 in games against the NFC West in his career. He was 1-7 against the NFC South (10 touchdowns, 14 interceptions) and 7-13 against the NFC East (24 touchdowns, 23 interceptions). This is why Warner's VOA (not adjusted for opponent) is higher than his DVOA for nine of his 12 seasons. He played some very weak schedules of defenses.
All-star casts needed for relevancy, weak schedules to inflate the numbers, a "win big lose close" reputation, and five years of nothingness. Is it really a HOF career if we're asked to forget half of it? |
Warner was a great story but he was a front runner who had a lot of help and even then, only ever produced very uneven results. That Warner craps on Eli so much is completely beyond me. That so many Giants fans hold up Warner as a slam dunk HOF and then turn around and say Eli is borderline is completely absurd to me.
FootballOutsiders Argues for Warner to Canton - (
New Window )
Warner has 3 seasons that are fairly superior to any of Eli's 3 best seasons...And an MVP to boot...
I do think the organization failed Eli post 2011
unusual. Seeing a 50+year woman 'punk', is kind of weird.
I felt sorry for Warner when he was inducted to H of F
she looked ridiculous.
Just 14 months ago, Warner had the Top 3 spots for most yards in a SB game. He averaged 370 yards/game in 3 SBs. He lit up PIT (#1 defense in NFL) and had the game won. He doesn’t play defense.
Warner had his moments.
His best was better than Eli’s best. I don’t think he shoukd he in HOF but he had several elite years.
Eli - HOF.
I like the way you think. Good answer. I’m going to keep my eye on you
unusual. Seeing a 50+year woman 'punk', is kind of weird.
I felt sorry for Warner when he was inducted to H of F
she looked ridiculous.
Judge not lest ye be judged.
unusual. Seeing a 50+year woman 'punk', is kind of weird.
I felt sorry for Warner when he was inducted to H of F
she looked ridiculous.
She's an ex marine. She has an interesting story in her own right.
If you're looking at Eli vs. the likes of Warner or Brees in terms of who is technically a better quarterback, Eli will come up second best every time. But in terms of who you'd expect to come up with a big performance in an important game in difficult circumstances...Eli's as good as I've ever seen.
Eli's career is defined by two moments where he came up massive in situations that changed the course of the organization. They're only two moments, but there are Hall of Fame careers that in my eyes don't amount to as much as those two moments.
What HOF player has Eli had on the offense with the Giants? Which of Eli’s Giants receivers had 10,000 yards receiving? Eli’s done a lot more with a lot less in much worse playing conditions and with some horrific and questionable coaching.
What HOF player has Eli had on the offense with the Giants? Which of Eli’s Giants receivers had 10,000 yards receiving? Eli’s done a lot more with a lot less in much worse playing conditions and with some horrific and questionable coaching.
I guess Jim Kelley shouldn’t be in the HoF because he played with Lofton, Reed, and Thomas. Or Aikman, who played with Irvin, Smith, and Allen. Or Bradshaw, who played with Stallworth, Swann, Harris, and Webster. Or Unitas, who played with Moore and Berry. Etc.
Like playing with other Hall of Famers requires less skill.
Please get off the stupid pills. It’s unbecoming...
Great post. Agree on all points.
If you're looking at Eli vs. the likes of Warner or Brees in terms of who is technically a better quarterback, Eli will come up second best every time. But in terms of who you'd expect to come up with a big performance in an important game in difficult circumstances...Eli's as good as I've ever seen.
Eli's career is defined by two moments where he came up massive in situations that changed the course of the organization. They're only two moments, but there are Hall of Fame careers that in my eyes don't amount to as much as those two moments.
A lesser man (mentally) would have folded under the pressure - especially in 2007. Eli did all he had to do to win that game ... and he did.
"Easy E" .... I really don't think 80% of the QBs (maybe more) in the league that year could have done it - playing behind/with the same Giant's team.
Warner made throws from tunnels. He was amazing in an offense that Martz would simply not allow less than five receivers into the passing tree . Kurt never forgave Coughlin or Manning for his abbreviated one season with the Giants . He was a dick about it. But he was better than Eli.
9-4 record, 67% completion %, 31tds to 14ints, 304 yards per game, 102.8 passer rating...
And he never had a 4th quarter comeback when down 6?
Umm... what?
And he never had a 4th quarter comeback when down 6?
Unbelievable isn’t it? I remember reading about the weather thing when the FO article was posted years ago and couldn’t believe it.
MVP is a regular season stats contest, nothing more. If they voted after the Superbowl, is there any doubt Eli Manning was the 2011 MVP?
Only 10 regular season MVP's in history have gone on to win the Superbowl that same season.
The regular season award is hugely significant because the sample size is THE ENTIRE season. It rewards sustained excellence. SB MVP is nice, but it’s one game. Timmy Smith was a SB MVP in ‘88 for the Skins and ended up with 600 yards in his career.
Since Eli has never been good at sustained excellence, I guess I can see why you have to resort to such silly tactics...
Or....
7 Fourth Quarter Comebacks constantly playing from behind including a game where you were down 2 TD's with under 5 minutes to play (Dallas), breaking the 4th quarter TD record, and Superbowl MVP?
Newton and Ryan will retire with more MVPs than Eli. Neither is anywhere near his class, nor will they ever be.
Newton and Ryan will retire with more MVPs than Eli. Neither is anywhere near his class, nor will they ever be.
EXACTLY. That's all I'm saying.
Even his 2012 year was viewed as very good despite 25 INTs, which has already been broken down where over half came on drops or tipped balls.
Look solely at stats is a poor way to judge a player.
Even his 2012 year was viewed as very good despite 25 INTs, which has already been broken down where over half came on drops or tipped balls.
Look solely at stats is a poor way to judge a player.
Stop it. Top 3-5 in the league QBs, Manning had 1 year where you could legitimately say he was in that category. I'll give you possibly 2008 but I would need to examine the other QBs that season more to see where he ranked. The other years he's been a TO machine, no question about that.
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I mean he was pretty darn good in 2008. Was he not elite because they were good at running the ball? He was efficient and made a lot of big throws in games. 2014 he threw for 36 TDs, thats pretty darn good considering it was 2nd in the league.
Even his 2012 year was viewed as very good despite 25 INTs, which has already been broken down where over half came on drops or tipped balls.
Look solely at stats is a poor way to judge a player.
Stop it. Top 3-5 in the league QBs, Manning had 1 year where you could legitimately say he was in that category. I'll give you possibly 2008 but I would need to examine the other QBs that season more to see where he ranked. The other years he's been a TO machine, no question about that.
So we judge eliteness based on one stat? Turonvers? Ok.
I respect you as a poster, but calling Ryan a choker in the SB in absurd. He had a QBR of 145 in game. He was 17/23 for 284, 2 TDs, O Ints.
I guess you are blaming him for Hightower's sack??
Welp, I guess there goes Brett Favre's legacy. Along with many other HOF'ers.
Its not that huge of a stat.