Not questioning his combine or his abilities or even taking him at #2.
Here's what worries me:
1. He had sub-par rushing games this past year against the likes of rutgers ( 35 yrds !), maryland, indiana, northwestern and georgia STATE...finishing 4th in the big 10 in that category. Injuries, offensive line...maybe those were the issues. But that 's just the kinds of problems the giants tend to have too.
2. He can return kicks but he's too valuable in that role so it why take someone based on that skill that you won't even use as frequently as he did it college?
3. This draft has a lot of RB's that can still help us. Help, not save.
4. We are already getting those dreams of obj, engram and barkley running free through the 2ndary as some sort of three headed blue monster, but we've seen this movie before, as in like every single year we ignore the line... and we know how it ends.
5. Can he run up the gut? I see lots of speed runs and great looking catches, but we need someone who can get it done through the middle.
6. Actually this is #1--the hype train is in full gear for him. He deserves the accolades based on his recent performance and he sounds like a great kid but when everyone is saying the same thing over and over, these days, i get concerned about group think/echo-chambering, whatever you want to term it.
If we have a really good plan to improve the OL this offseason and that plans actually works out, then taking him with our first could be the kind of move that puts us back in the playoffs. But if we whiff again, and we see barkley getting stuffed over and over and then eventually limping off with some issue, then it will be a blue christmas yet again.
For me, the trade today for Tree shows there is a new front office on the job. I think we have a legit shot at a trade down, getting OL help and all kinds of other shots in the arm, including a good RB...just not named barkley.
His short yardage, between the tackle is not great.....as he tries to bounce out of a non-opening instead of powering through it....much like Sanders. Now, he can pop anything for a large gain.
His quickness and acceleration is amazing as well as his receiving skills....
Now, defenses must put 8 in the box...as he is deadly in the open which I think works perfectly for Shummer's play action offense
He is not Emmit Smith....who can get 3 yards when you need 2.
But he is explosive....I saw 5 long bombs for TDs, amazed that he snuck through the line and ran up the sideline as fast as he did!?!?!
Any screen can go for a TD.
Any swing pass and small hole can be broken.
But also, if you need 2 yards..he might get caught for a yard
Loss....to kill a drive
He is not Emmit Smith....who can get 3 yards when you need 2.
But he is explosive....I saw 5 long bombs for TDs, amazed that he snuck through the line and ran up the sideline as fast as he did!?!?!
Any screen can go for a TD.
Any swing pass and small hole can be broken.
But also, if you need 2 yards..he might get caught for a yard
Loss....to kill a drive
George, after reading your post, the reward seems to far outweigh the risk.
Yes, the OL will not be great....hopefully it will be better than last season, which should not be hard to accomplish....
But Barkley brings an element to the Giants, they have not had since Tiki.....and defenses will have to account for him....yes with this OL, he may get stuffed for a few series....and then bang.....he's gone.....and once this happens, then the defense has to crowd the line and it opens up the downfield passing game....
Barkley will make an OL look better than it actually is.....and when you have a RB, that has this ability, it can actually raise the level of play of your linemen.....
So if we are playing for now, we take Barkley......if we are picking for the future, it will be a QB.....
Not only Penn St but he played HS by me in Whitehall PA.
And to be honest, I still do not understand how he does not excel in short yardage as his dead lift and leg strength is amazing....
So are you praying the Browns take a QB and Berkley is there for us like LT was or are you praying they take him and we go with someone else at 2?
Even with a bad line two pedestrian backs had pretty decent yards per carry. What would Barkley do?
When has that formula delivered Super Bowls?
Sounds like a great way to put up huge numbers in November against a 1 win opponents?
You cant win the SB without facing top flight defenses that can shut down the run. There are alot of ringless HoF RBs with some god awful playoff performances.
If we can get Ronald Jones AND significantly improve our OL, watch out.
If we can get Kerryon Johnson AND significantly improve our OL, watch out.
If we can get Sony Michel AND significantly improve our OL, watch out.
If the Giants do a decent job in free agency and do a decent job in the draft regardless of the names attached AND have a healthy year instead of having key injuries up and down the roster watch out.
The #2 overall pick is not going to be the difference between a good year and a bad year, injuries are. For the most part, that's been the case for the Giants ever since Eli arrived.
I’m not sure if his tendency to not run up the gut that shows up on tape was due to the OL not creating creases for him. I think that tendency can be coached as well.
He’s a threat to take it to the house on every run. I’d gladly take two long TDs in a game in which he averages 3 yards a carry otherwise.
I hate the idea of drafting a RB in the first round, let alone be the 2nd pick overall. But if we stupidly do, the prospect should be a La’Veon Bell type - a real workhorse and grinder...
This guy forces the defense up to the line. Pick your poison.
He is also a gifted pass catcher, so he is matchup nightmare.
Hopefully, Cleveland doesn't take him. Suspect they might. Doubt he gets out of the top two.
At #2 you are trying to get a weapon for which the defense has to game plan. You want a matchup nightmare to open up the other playmakers on the field. You want a guy who can change the game with big plays. That is Barkley.
If the line isn't fixed, 3rd and short and 4th and short will continue to be a problem no matter who is in the backfield. It's a silly reason to pass up on a game changer.
Correct. And it shouldn’t be Barkley; and indeed it should be a RB in the later rounds...
I hate the idea of drafting a RB in the first round, let alone be the 2nd pick overall. But if we stupidly do, the prospect should be a La’Veon Bell type - a real workhorse and grinder...
Three times he had at least 20 carries; he had 40 touches (from scrimmage) against Iowa.
This isn't a big deal. Some games he was simply benched after Penn State got up big. This shit is so old. People look at stats as if they exist in a bubble. You have to look for context in the stats, you can't automatically assume narratives because of stats. There are reasons for certain things you see in the stats that have nothing to do with supposed ineffectiveness.
OP mentioned the Maryland game...he destroyed Maryland...He played 2 and half quarters in that game because they were up by over 40 points mid-way through the 3rd quarter. These are the things you are ignoring.
He also had many more high carry volume games in 2016, proving he can be a high-volume back. The loss of Chris Godwin to the NFL after 2016 hurt the Penn State offense. Teams loaded up on Saquon because PSU didn't really have guys like Godwin who could consistently hurt you and that were a physical mismatch one on one. So he saw a lot of stacked boxes this year, where it was clear the entire defensive gameplan was to shut him down, and he still exceeded his yards from scrimmage total last year because he simply did a lot more damage as a receiver this year than he did last year.
Short answer is stop with the nonsense and hand-wringing. Bringing up games like Maryland and Indiana as if they were bad games reveals you don't actually have a clue. Indiana the guy has over 100 yards from scrimmage, throws for a TD, and returns a 98 yard kick return for a TD. I mean, that's a spectacular game that is revealing he is an all-around weapon that plays the RB position. Oh no, he only had 47 yards rushing against Georgia State...AND 142 receiving yards! In a game he BARELY played in. I mean, they won that Georgia State game 56-0. He played about 1 half of football. You really think GEORGIA STATE stopped him? No. I mean damn. He's a football player, and a damn great one.
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I’d gladly take two long TDs in a game in which he averages 3 yards a carry otherwise.
Not if the team loses 21-14 and Barkley's indecision is the cause of countless three and outs that never allow the offense to develop a rhythm or sustain drives.
If the QB doesn’t throw any TD passes that’s a bigger problem.
The question is how does that player translate to the NFL and how will the Giants utilize that player IF he is drafted.
I would think that Barkley would be utilized far better by Pat Shurmur and having additional threats on offense like OBJ, Shep and Engram will limit defenses stacking to just stop him, which I am sure happened a lot at Penn State.
But there is something to be said for being conditioned to handle a high number of carries - like Kerryon Johnson or Rashaad Perry - against quality competition. Not saying Barkley can’t, but it’s not clear cut. And catching the ball in space is not the same as getting a true carry where the dlinemen come into play more and there is less space...
Josh Rosen completed less than 60% of his passes and threw 3 picks and no TDs in a losing effort against an Arizona defense that can generously be called terrible. If you want to knock Barkley for what he did against Rutgers, I assume you would also say the Giants should stay away from Rosen for a similar performance against a similar team?
But there is something to be said for being conditioned to handle a high number of carries - like Kerryon Johnson or Rashaad Perry - against quality competition. Not saying Barkley can’t, but it’s not clear cut. And catching the ball in space is not the same as getting a true carry where the dlinemen come into play more and there is less space...
2016 he had 7 games with 20 or more carries. He had less carries this year because teams were trying to take him away, so PSU is naturally going to try and take what the defense gives them. He can handle a big workload, he's done it in the past, he has a thick lower half (and upper half), and he has been very durable.
Kerryon Johnson getting a lot of carries doesn't make him a great back. He's a good running back. Would you rather have LaDainian Tomlinson or Eddie George?
IMO, every single negative attributed to Barkley is being nitpicky. He's the total package and using things such as 'he's not a great short yardage back' (the man's 230+ pounds and can dead lift a truck... so it's not matter of him not having the talent of ability to do it, maybe his line played a part in some of those runs where he didn't get the first down?) and 'he hasn't shown he can carry a large load' (which has already been debunked above) appears to be some folks parroting things they've heard elsewhere.
I 'get' the argument about picking a RB at #2... especially with this being such a deep draft when it comes to that position. BUT... Barkley's not just the best RB in the draft... he's the best PLAYER. If the draft is supposedly about acquiring the best talent... why wouldn't you draft the most talented player in the draft... especially when the only other player who comes even close to him in talent is a Guard?
I love posts like this. Are you privy to information that even the most clued in people aren't privy to?
I still think the Giants plan on taking a QB.
I still think the Giants plan on taking a QB.
When did Mara announce they were taking a QB? I honestly had never heard him say that. I haven't been as up on 'Giants news' as I usually am over the past several months so I might've missed it.
Link - ( New Window )
Kerryon Johnson getting a lot of carries doesn't make him a great back. He's a good running back. Would you rather have LaDainian Tomlinson or Eddie George?
Johnson is a great college RB. Brilliant. Whether he becomes a great RB in the NFL remains to be seen. But I am a big fan and think he has the tools.
If you are trying to compare KJ to EG I think you've picked the wrong RB from the past. He's much lighter than EG, but he's quicker and faster. In my eye, KJ is more like Tiki Barber, or maybe even a Le'Veon Bell-lite. He's going to be a real threat in the passing game...
But to your question directly - LT... ;)
Thanks for the link.
IMO, what he... or anyone for that matter... says in the middle of last season doesn't mean much for what's going to actually happen in late April. He didn't even know who his GM and new HC were going to be at that point. Things change. I'm not discounting that it's very possible we pick a QB at #2... but IMO it should only be if Barkley's been picked at #1. Guess we'll see!
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Kerryon Johnson getting a lot of carries doesn't make him a great back. He's a good running back. Would you rather have LaDainian Tomlinson or Eddie George?
Johnson is a great college RB. Brilliant. Whether he becomes a great RB in the NFL remains to be seen. But I am a big fan and think he has the tools.
If you are trying to compare KJ to EG I think you've picked the wrong RB from the past. He's much lighter than EG, but he's quicker and faster. In my eye, KJ is more like Tiki Barber, or maybe even a Le'Veon Bell-lite. He's going to be a real threat in the passing game...
But to your question directly - LT... ;)
He runs pretty upright, like George. He is nothing like Tiki, he doesn't have the speed or quickness of Tiki. He's patient like Bell, but I don't think he has the explosion, the lateral agility, and the long speed of those guys. I have yet to see a play of Johnson that made me go, "wow, I want to see that again." Barkley has at least one of these plays in every game.
And yet one of the first statements from the GM he hired was how he believes the Eli that played in the second Eagles game is who Eli really is and believes he has something left in the tank.
Nothing else would surprise me, and I take everything that is being said right now, or reportedly said, as grains of salt.
We aren't really going to know until Goodell is up on that stage, and says, "With the 2nd overall pick in the 2018 NFL Draft..."
He runs pretty upright, like George. He is nothing like Tiki, he doesn't have the speed or quickness of Tiki. He's patient like Bell, but I don't think he has the explosion, the lateral agility, and the long speed of those guys. I have yet to see a play of Johnson that made me go, "wow, I want to see that again." Barkley has at least one of these plays in every game.
Go watch the Ole Miss game. Or the first Georgia game. If you are open minded, you can't help but see great bounce to the outside, great balance, great quickness through the hole, and the ability to finish. And these aren't ham and eggers on defense. These are rivals with pros through every level...
Good point.
It’s possible he may be blowing smoke when Gettleman said he doesn’t believe in not choosing a particular position high (with regards to taking a RB). I’m also on record as saying I wouldn’t be mad if a QB is in fact chosen at #2 (preferably Rosen if it’s a QB but wouldn’t throw the remote at any of the top ones... I trust Getts that much right now).
All I’m saying is... I’d pick Barkley.
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He runs pretty upright, like George. He is nothing like Tiki, he doesn't have the speed or quickness of Tiki. He's patient like Bell, but I don't think he has the explosion, the lateral agility, and the long speed of those guys. I have yet to see a play of Johnson that made me go, "wow, I want to see that again." Barkley has at least one of these plays in every game.
Go watch the Ole Miss game. Or the first Georgia game. If you are open minded, you can't help but see great bounce to the outside, great balance, great quickness through the hole, and the ability to finish. And these aren't ham and eggers on defense. These are rivals with pros through every level...
I will do that but in the games I've watched of his so far I rarely see him win the corner on the edge. Lots of TFLs when he tries to get outside.
Go watch the Ole Miss game. Or the first Georgia game. If you are open minded, you can't help but see great bounce to the outside, great balance, great quickness through the hole, and the ability to finish. And these aren't ham and eggers on defense. These are rivals with pros through every level...
I will do that but in the games I've watched of his so far I rarely see him win the corner on the edge. Lots of TFLs when he tries to get outside.
Fair enough. And watch how he stays low through the LOS and doesn't get high until he gets into open space. KJ can really deliver punishment on that first line of contact...you don't do that being upright...
We already have an 'heir apparent' to Eli... his name is Davis Webb. I say give him a chance.
We already have an 'heir apparent' to Eli... his name is Davis Webb. I say give him a chance.
There is a reason Webb was a 3rd round pick and couldn't beat out Geno for the starting spot. He's a long shot and has a lot of work to do. Relying on Davis Webb to be that guy is a dangerous proposition. Not saying that it can't happen, but it certainly shouldn't be expected. I'm also not sure why Gallman is being overlooked as the starting back. He actually played last year and looked ok. That was behind a bad OL with a piss poor passing game.
Are you really comfortable calling Webb the heir apparent to Eli? If the Giants were, would Mara have told his scouts to start scouting the QB's as if he knew we were drafting one?
The one glaring exception: Barry Sanders. In his final year in college he failed to have one game that wasn't literally spectacular.
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it's your opinion. I think the Giants were always going to take a QB and everything they have done from last season when Mara announced it until now has reinforced that thought. I'm not sure Barkley's combine changed anything because they already knew how good he is.
I still think the Giants plan on taking a QB.
When did Mara announce they were taking a QB? I honestly had never heard him say that. I haven't been as up on 'Giants news' as I usually am over the past several months so I might've missed it.
If we're determined to pick a QB simply because of something John Mara said mid-season, then this team is still plagued.
Are you really comfortable calling Webb the heir apparent to Eli? If the Giants were, would Mara have told his scouts to start scouting the QB's as if he knew we were drafting one? [/quote]
Go easy on T-Bone. He is an avid drinker of the Kool-Aid served by Jints Central. His license plates read: TRUSTNMARA
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In comment 13854778 Keith said:
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it's your opinion. I think the Giants were always going to take a QB and everything they have done from last season when Mara announced it until now has reinforced that thought. I'm not sure Barkley's combine changed anything because they already knew how good he is.
I still think the Giants plan on taking a QB.
When did Mara announce they were taking a QB? I honestly had never heard him say that. I haven't been as up on 'Giants news' as I usually am over the past several months so I might've missed it.
If we're determined to pick a QB simply because of something John Mara said mid-season, then this team is still plagued.
Yeah, that's what it is. We are determined to pick a QB because some random schlub made a comment last year. OR, the owner of the team acknowledged the situation we are in and understands that our 37 year old franchise QB is at the end of his career and he knew that there was top level talent in teh draft.
Alas, I misjudged you... ;)
If by "best run" equals value, then I give you that. What are they? The third most valuable NFL franchise...?
But they aren't well run in terms of winning consistently. That gold era was in the '80s under Parcells and Young, after the NFL saved the Jints from themselves by bringing in Young...
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little to no faith in what Webb can do and therefore think that since we have the #2 pick that we MUST take advantage of this opportunity to take a 'franchise' QB... as if the fact that Webb was a 3rd round pick that means he can't develop into a 'franchise' QB... particularly with a HC who at every stop he's made throughout his career he's shown the ability to make chicken salad out of chicken shit with every QB he's had to work with? Even if Webb flat out sucks... Shurmur has proven to be able to get competent... if not above average... play from his QBs.
We already have an 'heir apparent' to Eli... his name is Davis Webb. I say give him a chance.
There is a reason Webb was a 3rd round pick and couldn't beat out Geno for the starting spot. He's a long shot and has a lot of work to do. Relying on Davis Webb to be that guy is a dangerous proposition. Not saying that it can't happen, but it certainly shouldn't be expected. I'm also not sure why Gallman is being overlooked as the starting back. He actually played last year and looked ok. That was behind a bad OL with a piss poor passing game.
Are you really comfortable calling Webb the heir apparent to Eli? If the Giants were, would Mara have told his scouts to start scouting the QB's as if he knew we were drafting one?
I don't know the reason(s) why Webb was a third round pick (although I've read several times that he was projected to go higher)... but it's my opinion he wasn't upgraded to the backup spot behind Eli because Webb (in his rookie season) wasn't ready to step in if Eli went down. Yeah he's a long shot... but I see no sure things at QB coming into the draft ( like a Luck for instance) so is he THAT much of a 'longer' shot than any of the QBs coming out?
Am I comfortable calling him the heir apparent? At this point in time, yes I am. I was comfortable with it before we went 3-13... why should that change because we now have the #2 pick? As far as what Mara says... I'd be a little surprised (key word being 'little') if Mara knew enough about Webb's progress and ability to be a starting QB in this league to trust his opinions on personnel moves... or do we not remember the infamous 'I couldn't understand why Jerrell Jernigan wasn't playing earlier?' quote?
Are you really comfortable calling Webb the heir apparent to Eli? If the Giants were, would Mara have told his scouts to start scouting the QB's as if he knew we were drafting one?
Go easy on T-Bone. He is an avid drinker of the Kool-Aid served by Jints Central. His license plates read: TRUSTNMARA [/quote]
This is hilarious to read after the post I just put up (I hadn't seen this post yet).
Still good to have you back beedub ya old fart!
Yeah, that's what it is. We are determined to pick a QB because some random schlub made a comment last year. OR, the owner of the team acknowledged the situation we are in and understands that our 37 year old franchise QB is at the end of his career and he knew that there was top level talent in teh draft.
Why even point out what he said as something that's meaningful, instead of just a platitude that's patently obvious to everyone?
It is one thing to question using a #2 pick on a RB, the arguments against this are well documented and have been discussed endlessly. I think that is a fair point, injuries, longevity, yadda yadda i get it.
but to so selectively come up with these reasons not to draft him or try to say he isnt the best RB ( or player) in the draft is just lazy and click bait. (congrats you got me). In case you have forgot, in football you win by putting more points on board, not how many yards you get.
run through some of the alternatives in this same fashion and let me know what you think.. Josh Allen and his career sub 60% completion rate is far more damming of a prospect than a couple games youve selected in a vacumm that saquon didnt have the yardage.
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little to no faith in what Webb can do and therefore think that since we have the #2 pick that we MUST take advantage of this opportunity to take a 'franchise' QB... as if the fact that Webb was a 3rd round pick that means he can't develop into a 'franchise' QB...
You're misrepresenting what most in the "draft a QB" camp are saying. The point is that you don't pass up the chance to draft a QB worthy of the #2 overall pick just because you already have a guy worthy of a 3rd round pick.
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particularly with a HC who at every stop he's made throughout his career he's shown the ability to make chicken salad out of chicken shit with every QB he's had to work with?
It's great to be able to make chicken salad out of chicken shit but wouldn't you rather he make a perfectly cooked steak out of fillet mignon? We don't want to be like the team that passed up Dan Marino because we already had Marc Wilson.
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We already have an 'heir apparent' to Eli... his name is Davis Webb. I say give him a chance.
I agree we should give him a chance, but it should be the chance to compete against Josh Rosen in training camp. A QB room that includes Eli, Webb, and Rosen would be a beautiful thing.
Regarding point #1 - why not if you believe that QB drafted in the third has the potential to be just as good as anyone who could be taken at #2? Besides all of that, where a player is 'worthy' to be picked in any given draft is relative to what draft he's in. I've seen a few posts where poster and analyst have said that had Webb been in this draft that he wouldn't be too far off from the top guys in this class. So maybe he wouldn't have been worth of the #2 pick... but (based on what I said) he maybe would've been worthy of a late 1st-early 2nd round pick. Is that difference enough to disregard who most everyone is calling a 'generational' talent at a position where an upgrade is sorely needed?
Regarding point #2 - yes I would... why is it assumed that Webb can't be that filet mignon and only the Darnold, Rosen's and Allen's of this draft are?
Regarding point #3 - I can't argue too much against this one because, as I said, if we don't take Barkley... I want Rosen.
Regarding point #1 - why not if you believe that QB drafted in the third has the potential to be just as good as anyone who could be taken at #2? Besides all of that, where a player is 'worthy' to be picked in any given draft is relative to what draft he's in.
I won't be giving up on Davis Webb just because they draft a QB with the #2 overall pick. Let it play out. The Redskins took Kirk Cousins in the 4th round the same year they traded away a ton of picks to take RG3 with the #2 overall pick. That's what a smart GM does when it comes to the QB position (or any position for that matter). You do what your draft board tells you to do and then let the chips fall where they may.
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Regarding point #1 - why not if you believe that QB drafted in the third has the potential to be just as good as anyone who could be taken at #2? Besides all of that, where a player is 'worthy' to be picked in any given draft is relative to what draft he's in.
Hard to imagine that last year's draft class was so much better than this year's that a guy who was a late third round pick last year slots in as the #2 overall pick this year.
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So maybe he wouldn't have been worth of the #2 pick... but (based on what I said) he maybe would've been worthy of a late 1st-early 2nd round pick. Is that difference enough to disregard who most everyone is calling a 'generational' talent at a position where an upgrade is sorely needed?
If the QB and the RB are both worthy of the #2 overall pick, you take the QB. It shouldn't matter that you have a young Marc Wilson waiting in the wings.
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why is it assumed that Webb can't be that filet mignon and only the Darnold, Rosen's and Allen's of this draft are?
Hey, you're the one who called him chicken salad out of chicken shit, not me. I was just running with the analogy. If you think Shurmur can make fillet mignon out of chicken shit, well, you have an awful lot of faith in him.
I won't be giving up on Davis Webb just because they draft a QB with the #2 overall pick. Let it play out. The Redskins took Kirk Cousins in the 4th round the same year they traded away a ton of picks to take RG3 with the #2 overall pick. That's what a smart GM does when it comes to the QB position (or any position for that matter). You do what your draft board tells you to do and then let the chips fall where they may.
Point 1 - perhaps... but like I said, I've seen on a few occasions it said that Webb would've been in the mix with... and perhaps graded higher than... a few of the 'top' QB's in this draft who are slated to go in the mid to late 1st/early 2nd round (I believe Jackson and Randolph were two names as were mentioned that it's believed Webb would've been graded higher than... I wish I could find any of those articles/posts but I can't and don't have the time to really look). He might not have been in Darnold or Rosen's class... but I believe he was up there in the mix with Allen and Mayfield.
Point 2 - I can agree with that... but what if the RB is the better, more 'sure thing' prospect than the QB? Do you pass up the 'sure thing' for a prospect that has some warts on it? Particularly when you not only have an older franchise QB already in the fold but also a QB who you spent a 3rd round pick on just last year? What if the QB you pick at #2 doesn't pan out? So now not only have you spent the #2 pick on a guy whose warts couldn't be overcome... but you've also effectively wasted your third round pick too (one of these guys are going to get more attention than the other and my money would be on the higher picked player as I'm sure you'd agree) because Webb's development would be stunted... AND you passed on the generational, more of a 'sure thing' QB who's tearing up the league now for the Colts or Browns. Yeah... THAT'S going to go over well.
Point 3 - 1) I wasn't referring to Webb as 'chicken shit' in my analogy as for all I (and all of us) know, he very well may be the filet mignon. And based on Shurmur past (particularly of the recent variety)... Keenam suuuure looked like a piece of filet mignon to me! So yeah... call me crazy but I do have a lot of faith in Shurmer. A lot more now than I did when he was first hired as a matter of fact.
You won't be 'giving up' on Davis Webb but you sure will be stunting his growth since he'll most likely be the third/scout team QB... only getting scraps for reps. This is after an HC, OC and offensive system change at that.
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Go watch the Ole Miss game. Or the first Georgia game. If you are open minded, you can't help but see great bounce to the outside, great balance, great quickness through the hole, and the ability to finish. And these aren't ham and eggers on defense. These are rivals with pros through every level...
I will do that but in the games I've watched of his so far I rarely see him win the corner on the edge. Lots of TFLs when he tries to get outside.
Fair enough. And watch how he stays low through the LOS and doesn't get high until he gets into open space. KJ can really deliver punishment on that first line of contact...you don't do that being upright...
He lowers his shoulder before contact, sometimes he lowers his pad level through the los, but he's inconsistent with it. He takes a lot of contact, doesn't have the homerun speed. You cited his game against Ole Miss and say they have all these NFL players on their team. Ole Miss' run defense was 123rd out of 129 FBS teams. So...pretty terrible. They have two guys on that defense that have entered the draft, both on the front 4. One of them a 225 lb DE (read: pass rush utility only). The other is a 285 lb DT. Both are middle round prospects. What I'm trying to say is Ole Miss was really, really bad last year, particularly defensively, and horrifically bad at run defense.
It's not a criticism of Kerryon that Auburn took advantage of a bad defense, but let's not make the claim that he beat this great run defense, either. A guy named Tra Minter on South Alabama ran for 83 yards on 12 carries against them (6.9 ypc...Kerryon 7.3 ypc). When I see Kerryon break off the big runs, the OL has made big creases for him. I don't see him create. I'm still waiting to see him win the corner with speed. I see some runs outside that are blocked extremely well. But I don't see him beat an unblocked defender to the spot.
Georgia is a different story. He had great numbers against a very good defense overall and a good rushing defense. I did get to see most of his game against them, because Draft Breakdown has Braden Smith's reps vs Georgia for that game. I think that is the best I've seen of him, I saw him make some good cuts and get some good runs. However, you don't get the homeruns with him very often. I still waiting to see him win the corner with speed. He did really put a move on a Georgia DE. He rarely doesn't get what his blockers get for him, and they get him a lot. I came away from that game a lot more impressed with Braden Smith than Kerryon. I'm not negative on Kerryon...I think he has good vision (there were two plays where I thought he ignored a hole inside and bounced outside. But normally, he has good vision and patience, he gets north and south quickly, takes what's there, has good forward lean when he goes down, and finishes the play. What I don't see is a lot of him creating his own yards. They are there...just not very many plays like that. This is in contrast to Saquon Barkley, who creates almost everything he gets due to the types of boxes he has to run against and the direct focus on him.
For a guy that weighed in at the combine around 213 lbs, he plays very physical. He looks to deliver blows. That's not necessarily a good thing. Small guys looking for contact tend not to last very long in the NFL. I want a guy that won't take the big collisions very often. The punishment was starting to take its toll on him late in the season with rib and shoulder injuries. This would be a concern at the next level with the longer season and also with bigger, stronger, faster defensive players bringing more force to the collision. If he doesn't change his style, he may wear down quickly. If he does change his style, he may not be effective at all.
I think McShay is right, Kerryon is a complementary back at the next level: http://www.al.com/auburnfootball/index.ssf/2018/03/todd_mcshay_on_kerryon_johnson.html
Good short yardage back. Sy recently said he'll have a first round grade on him. I've seen about 4 games of his now and I don't get that at all. I'll see what Sy says about him with his final verdict, but I think he's a late 4th rounder at best, and don't think he'll be an effective lead/franchise running back in the NFL.
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In comment 13855099 T-Bone said:
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Regarding point #1 - why not if you believe that QB drafted in the third has the potential to be just as good as anyone who could be taken at #2? Besides all of that, where a player is 'worthy' to be picked in any given draft is relative to what draft he's in.
Hard to imagine that last year's draft class was so much better than this year's that a guy who was a late third round pick last year slots in as the #2 overall pick this year.
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So maybe he wouldn't have been worth of the #2 pick... but (based on what I said) he maybe would've been worthy of a late 1st-early 2nd round pick. Is that difference enough to disregard who most everyone is calling a 'generational' talent at a position where an upgrade is sorely needed?
If the QB and the RB are both worthy of the #2 overall pick, you take the QB. It shouldn't matter that you have a young Marc Wilson waiting in the wings.
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why is it assumed that Webb can't be that filet mignon and only the Darnold, Rosen's and Allen's of this draft are?
Hey, you're the one who called him chicken salad out of chicken shit, not me. I was just running with the analogy. If you think Shurmur can make fillet mignon out of chicken shit, well, you have an awful lot of faith in him.
I won't be giving up on Davis Webb just because they draft a QB with the #2 overall pick. Let it play out. The Redskins took Kirk Cousins in the 4th round the same year they traded away a ton of picks to take RG3 with the #2 overall pick. That's what a smart GM does when it comes to the QB position (or any position for that matter). You do what your draft board tells you to do and then let the chips fall where they may.
Point 1 - perhaps... but like I said, I've seen on a few occasions it said that Webb would've been in the mix with... and perhaps graded higher than... a few of the 'top' QB's in this draft who are slated to go in the mid to late 1st/early 2nd round (I believe Jackson and Randolph were two names as were mentioned that it's believed Webb would've been graded higher than... I wish I could find any of those articles/posts but I can't and don't have the time to really look). He might not have been in Darnold or Rosen's class... but I believe he was up there in the mix with Allen and Mayfield.
Point 2 - I can agree with that... but what if the RB is the better, more 'sure thing' prospect than the QB? Do you pass up the 'sure thing' for a prospect that has some warts on it? Particularly when you not only have an older franchise QB already in the fold but also a QB who you spent a 3rd round pick on just last year? What if the QB you pick at #2 doesn't pan out? So now not only have you spent the #2 pick on a guy whose warts couldn't be overcome... but you've also effectively wasted your third round pick too (one of these guys are going to get more attention than the other and my money would be on the higher picked player as I'm sure you'd agree) because Webb's development would be stunted... AND you passed on the generational, more of a 'sure thing' QB who's tearing up the league now for the Colts or Browns. Yeah... THAT'S going to go over well.
Point 3 - 1) I wasn't referring to Webb as 'chicken shit' in my analogy as for all I (and all of us) know, he very well may be the filet mignon. And based on Shurmur past (particularly of the recent variety)... Keenam suuuure looked like a piece of filet mignon to me! So yeah... call me crazy but I do have a lot of faith in Shurmer. A lot more now than I did when he was first hired as a matter of fact.
You won't be 'giving up' on Davis Webb but you sure will be stunting his growth since he'll most likely be the third/scout team QB... only getting scraps for reps. This is after an HC, OC and offensive system change at that.
T-bone, Keenum is awful. He doesn't have a strong arm, when he has to make long throws, he floats them out there, they just hang in the air. He doesn't have fastball he needs. I knew he was going to struggle in the playoffs. Shurmur did indeed maximize his ability.
But allow me to proffer why you would take a QB in the Giants' situation, even with Webb present: A great QB wins Super Bowls. The Patriots go deep into the playoffs every single year because of Tom Brady. Yes Belichick too, but he's not on the field. It's Brady. The Steelers are always in the playoffs because of Roethlisberger. The Packers are usually in the playoffs because of Aaron Rodgers. The Eagles went from a laughingstock to a Super Bowl contender in one year because of Carson Wentz. I know these are oversimplifications but the point is that the NFL is a QB-driven league. If you have a great one, you will have a very good team for a long time. If you don't, then everything else needs to fall right...health, good defense, gotta run the ball, etc, etc.
We don't know about Webb. We do know is that no team was convinced enough on him that he could be a top-tier franchise QB, otherwise he would've been a first round pick. So I'm going to assume that every NFL team thought he was a bit of a project at best.
That doesn't mean he can't be great. But in this situation, and if you want to play in and win Super Bowls, you may need to hedge your bet and get a guy you have more confidence in that could become an elite NFL QB.
And I'm a Barkley guy, I am, I think the guy is a superstar. I have no problem with the Giants going in that direction. To me it means they may know more about Webb and may like him. I trust the decision makers to get it right. There will be other QBs that come into the league after this draft, and we are counting on Eli again this year, so I don't mind them waiting. But if they pass up on the QB this year and one of them becomes an all-time great QB, then that will be a mistake, even considering how good Barkley is.
He lowers his shoulder before contact, sometimes he lowers his pad level through the los, but he's inconsistent with it. He takes a lot of contact, doesn't have the homerun speed. You cited his game against Ole Miss and say they have all these NFL players on their team. Ole Miss' run defense was 123rd out of 129 FBS teams. So...pretty terrible. They have two guys on that defense that have entered the draft, both on the front 4. One of them a 225 lb DE (read: pass rush utility only). The other is a 285 lb DT. Both are middle round prospects. What I'm trying to say is Ole Miss was really, really bad last year, particularly defensively, and horrifically bad at run defense.
It's not a criticism of Kerryon that Auburn took advantage of a bad defense, but let's not make the claim that he beat this great run defense, either. A guy named Tra Minter on South Alabama ran for 83 yards on 12 carries against them (6.9 ypc...Kerryon 7.3 ypc). When I see Kerryon break off the big runs, the OL has made big creases for him. I don't see him create. I'm still waiting to see him win the corner with speed. I see some runs outside that are blocked extremely well. But I don't see him beat an unblocked defender to the spot.
Georgia is a different story. He had great numbers against a very good defense overall and a good rushing defense. I did get to see most of his game against them, because Draft Breakdown has Braden Smith's reps vs Georgia for that game. I think that is the best I've seen of him, I saw him make some good cuts and get some good runs. However, you don't get the homeruns with him very often. I still waiting to see him win the corner with speed. He did really put a move on a Georgia DE. He rarely doesn't get what his blockers get for him, and they get him a lot. I came away from that game a lot more impressed with Braden Smith than Kerryon. I'm not negative on Kerryon...I think he has good vision (there were two plays where I thought he ignored a hole inside and bounced outside. But normally, he has good vision and patience, he gets north and south quickly, takes what's there, has good forward lean when he goes down, and finishes the play. What I don't see is a lot of him creating his own yards. They are there...just not very many plays like that. This is in contrast to Saquon Barkley, who creates almost everything he gets due to the types of boxes he has to run against and the direct focus on him.
For a guy that weighed in at the combine around 213 lbs, he plays very physical. He looks to deliver blows. That's not necessarily a good thing. Small guys looking for contact tend not to last very long in the NFL. I want a guy that won't take the big collisions very often. The punishment was starting to take its toll on him late in the season with rib and shoulder injuries. This would be a concern at the next level with the longer season and also with bigger, stronger, faster defensive players bringing more force to the collision. If he doesn't change his style, he may wear down quickly. If he does change his style, he may not be effective at all.
I think McShay is right, Kerryon is a complementary back at the next level: http://www.al.com/auburnfootball/index.ssf/2018/03/todd_mcshay_on_kerryon_johnson.html
Good short yardage back. Sy recently said he'll have a first round grade on him. I've seen about 4 games of his now and I don't get that at all. I'll see what Sy says about him with his final verdict, but I think he's a late 4th rounder at best, and don't think he'll be an effective lead/franchise running back in the NFL.
Nice write-up. Very detailed, I appreciate the effort. Thanks.
Ole Miss is young. They had the 4th ranked recruiting class in 2016 and top 20 in 2017, they have talent. It's just taking time to form; and it will have pro caliber talent. Plus, they had the chaos this year with Freeze's off-field nonsense. And Georgia, and it sounds like you know, is littered with NFL talent on defense.
Those are the two games I remembered mostly from start to finish. So whether it was a young Ole Miss D or a more seasoned Georgia D, the results were the same - high level production where you can see KJ showing a bit of everything against quality personnel. This wasn't Georgia State or Akron talent... ;)
And he ran very hard and well against Bama. My guess is you caught some of that? That is a rugged D and KJ went 30 for 100+. Not many do that to a Saban D. I'm not sure when or how he hurt his shoulder that day...
What do you mean by homerun? KJ had a 50 yard run in the Ole Miss game. And a 60 yarder versus Miss St. Those our SEC defenses. And he had 60 yarder versus Ga Southern....equivalent to the 80 yarder SB had against Akron...
Now, I don't think he's as speedy as SB, but KJ is not Mike Devlin either. I think you underestimate, a bit, his ability to make big plays.
I don't know about the create-your-own-yards angle. If the PSU oline isn't creating holes and seams, then the onus in on SB to bounce outside for yards. If the Auburn oline is creating seams, or KJ is the type of back who is patient and waits for the openings, then you can't ding him for not giving up on the play. Thus, the similar patient style of Bell.
I'm getting the impression you can see what I mean that KJ isn't always upright. When he hits that LOS, his pads are down and he's always moving his feet. The upright style, which I don't think is as pronounced as, say, an Eric Dickerson, is really when he gets to the second level...Is that fair?
In the end, a lot will depend - as usual - where these players go and how they are used. I'm just a fan of KJ's blended style - physical and finesse - and think there is more upside than most here...
Again, thanks for your comments. A good read...
The Giants do not.
Draft all the interior lineman they can get and see what is available at RB later.
How many does a RB come out of round 3 or later and light up NFL for 3-5 years?
Thats all you want /need out of RB.
NO to Barkley.
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In comment 13855139 Milton said:
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In comment 13855099 T-Bone said:
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Regarding point #1 - why not if you believe that QB drafted in the third has the potential to be just as good as anyone who could be taken at #2? Besides all of that, where a player is 'worthy' to be picked in any given draft is relative to what draft he's in.
Hard to imagine that last year's draft class was so much better than this year's that a guy who was a late third round pick last year slots in as the #2 overall pick this year.
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So maybe he wouldn't have been worth of the #2 pick... but (based on what I said) he maybe would've been worthy of a late 1st-early 2nd round pick. Is that difference enough to disregard who most everyone is calling a 'generational' talent at a position where an upgrade is sorely needed?
If the QB and the RB are both worthy of the #2 overall pick, you take the QB. It shouldn't matter that you have a young Marc Wilson waiting in the wings.
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why is it assumed that Webb can't be that filet mignon and only the Darnold, Rosen's and Allen's of this draft are?
Hey, you're the one who called him chicken salad out of chicken shit, not me. I was just running with the analogy. If you think Shurmur can make fillet mignon out of chicken shit, well, you have an awful lot of faith in him.
I won't be giving up on Davis Webb just because they draft a QB with the #2 overall pick. Let it play out. The Redskins took Kirk Cousins in the 4th round the same year they traded away a ton of picks to take RG3 with the #2 overall pick. That's what a smart GM does when it comes to the QB position (or any position for that matter). You do what your draft board tells you to do and then let the chips fall where they may.
Point 1 - perhaps... but like I said, I've seen on a few occasions it said that Webb would've been in the mix with... and perhaps graded higher than... a few of the 'top' QB's in this draft who are slated to go in the mid to late 1st/early 2nd round (I believe Jackson and Randolph were two names as were mentioned that it's believed Webb would've been graded higher than... I wish I could find any of those articles/posts but I can't and don't have the time to really look). He might not have been in Darnold or Rosen's class... but I believe he was up there in the mix with Allen and Mayfield.
Point 2 - I can agree with that... but what if the RB is the better, more 'sure thing' prospect than the QB? Do you pass up the 'sure thing' for a prospect that has some warts on it? Particularly when you not only have an older franchise QB already in the fold but also a QB who you spent a 3rd round pick on just last year? What if the QB you pick at #2 doesn't pan out? So now not only have you spent the #2 pick on a guy whose warts couldn't be overcome... but you've also effectively wasted your third round pick too (one of these guys are going to get more attention than the other and my money would be on the higher picked player as I'm sure you'd agree) because Webb's development would be stunted... AND you passed on the generational, more of a 'sure thing' QB who's tearing up the league now for the Colts or Browns. Yeah... THAT'S going to go over well.
Point 3 - 1) I wasn't referring to Webb as 'chicken shit' in my analogy as for all I (and all of us) know, he very well may be the filet mignon. And based on Shurmur past (particularly of the recent variety)... Keenam suuuure looked like a piece of filet mignon to me! So yeah... call me crazy but I do have a lot of faith in Shurmer. A lot more now than I did when he was first hired as a matter of fact.
You won't be 'giving up' on Davis Webb but you sure will be stunting his growth since he'll most likely be the third/scout team QB... only getting scraps for reps. This is after an HC, OC and offensive system change at that.
T-bone, Keenum is awful. He doesn't have a strong arm, when he has to make long throws, he floats them out there, they just hang in the air. He doesn't have fastball he needs. I knew he was going to struggle in the playoffs. Shurmur did indeed maximize his ability.
But allow me to proffer why you would take a QB in the Giants' situation, even with Webb present: A great QB wins Super Bowls. The Patriots go deep into the playoffs every single year because of Tom Brady. Yes Belichick too, but he's not on the field. It's Brady. The Steelers are always in the playoffs because of Roethlisberger. The Packers are usually in the playoffs because of Aaron Rodgers. The Eagles went from a laughingstock to a Super Bowl contender in one year because of Carson Wentz. I know these are oversimplifications but the point is that the NFL is a QB-driven league. If you have a great one, you will have a very good team for a long time. If you don't, then everything else needs to fall right...health, good defense, gotta run the ball, etc, etc.
We don't know about Webb. We do know is that no team was convinced enough on him that he could be a top-tier franchise QB, otherwise he would've been a first round pick. So I'm going to assume that every NFL team thought he was a bit of a project at best.
That doesn't mean he can't be great. But in this situation, and if you want to play in and win Super Bowls, you may need to hedge your bet and get a guy you have more confidence in that could become an elite NFL QB.
And I'm a Barkley guy, I am, I think the guy is a superstar. I have no problem with the Giants going in that direction. To me it means they may know more about Webb and may like him. I trust the decision makers to get it right. There will be other QBs that come into the league after this draft, and we are counting on Eli again this year, so I don't mind them waiting. But if they pass up on the QB this year and one of them becomes an all-time great QB, then that will be a mistake, even considering how good Barkley is.
allstar - I hear what you're saying and truth be told, don't have an argument against anything you said. I guess we'll see what happens. All I know is that if I was the GM... and I felt that Webb will be a good one... I'm taking Barkley. I'd have NO problem if they went QB... but I'd take the 'generational' talent.