March Madness is here! It looks like Virginia, Villanova, Kansas, and Xavier have locked up 1 seeds. Tar Heel fans may want to debate Xavier. Anyway, I'm looking forward to tonight's draw. Here is a link to the bracket matrix.
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If they don’t get to the final four this year they never will. They have a potential tough sweet 16 game but that’s it
You really underestimate the depth and quality of Kentucky and Arizona. Between them, they have at least nine pros right now. And both are peaking.
Both are dramatically under-seeded. AZ should have been at least a#3, and same with KY, who played in the SEC and won the SEC tournament. The SEC got 8 teams in and were arguably the best conference top to bottom this year...
Agree. Any UVA fan not worried is lying to themselves. I think they got screwed as the number 1 overall. Nova has an easier region.
Doesn't mean they can't beat us if they play their absolute best game, but I like our chances just fine. BTW, just because Sean Miller ran a defense using some similar concepts to ours doesn't mean that they're remotely prepared for ours.
While Lunardi had them out for sure (and he's always wrong about SU), the BPI projection had them making the tournament with a 66% confidence after beating Clemson in their finale, and 98% after beating Wake Forest in the tournament. That seemed optimistic to me, but they got it right.
People can laugh at SU making it in, but they laughed two years ago when SU got in as a 10 seed, and then went to the Final Four.
Doesn't mean they can't beat us if they play their absolute best game, but I like our chances just fine. BTW, just because Sean Miller ran a defense using some similar concepts to ours doesn't mean that they're remotely prepared for ours.
I would be careful just making a resume/numerical analysis. Have you seen AZ play? Because right now AZ passes the most important test - the eye test. The are very talented - deep and big. You know damn well these conference games can be very tight because these teams know each other very well. So I wouldn’t put a lot of stock in score differentials within conference games. UCLA btw is very young. But Kris Wilkes is a lottery pick, or close to it. They are in the tournament and not a bad team at all...
I noticed you didn’t comment on Kentucky.
Then again two years ago UNC got screwed with a world class Kentucky team somehow seeded 4th, a borderline one seed xavier seeded two and West Virginia a very strong three in their bracket.
And then they all lost before playing UNC.
That same year uva fans were freaked out about playing Michigan state in Chicago in the elite 8. And they lost to a 15 seed. All uva had to do was beat Syracuse.
Kenpom and all the other metrics are great - this time of year it's a one game sample size where stakes are at their highest and we have no idea how a 19 year old is going to react. Throw them out the window. Should be fun.
And I simply think you're underestimating just how bad the Pac-12 is. It's maybe the 7th or 8th best conference nationally. I'm amazed they got even the three bids they received - Arizona State has no business whatsoever in the tournament. A lot of top teams would look fantastic after waltzing through the Pac-12 tournament. I daresay we look rather good after beating three teams in the ACCT that are better than anyone Arizona has played.
Yeah, Ayton's really good. So's Bagley. He dropped 30 on us but we still beat Duke at Cameron.
Doesn't mean they can't beat us if they play their absolute best game, but I like our chances just fine. BTW, just because Sean Miller ran a defense using some similar concepts to ours doesn't mean that they're remotely prepared for ours.
UVA lost to Virginia Tech. UVA is not invincible. A potential matchup vs Arizona/Kentucky is a tough draw — especially for a program that doesn’t have a great track record getting deep in the tourney.
"The RECENT, is score-based and weights RECENT play more heavily than earlier games. Its effect will become
more pronounced the longer a season goes if a given team happens to have an upward or downward trend."
Under the Recent model, Kentucky is #1 and Arizona is #4. They are both playing very strong basketball lately. It will not be an easy game should we face either one of them.
Then again two years ago UNC got screwed with a world class Kentucky team somehow seeded 4th, a borderline one seed xavier seeded two and West Virginia a very strong three in their bracket.
And then they all lost before playing UNC.
That same year uva fans were freaked out about playing Michigan state in Chicago in the elite 8. And they lost to a 15 seed. All uva had to do was beat Syracuse.
Kenpom and all the other metrics are great - this time of year it's a one game sample size where stakes are at their highest and we have no idea how a 19 year old is going to react. Throw them out the window. Should be fun.
UNC is in a good spot to make a run at repeating. Get past Michigan and odds are they come out of the region.
Never said we were invincible. I said I'm confident we'll beat them because we've beaten better teams than them throughout the year, and because Arizona hasn't played a decent defensive team in months, if they've played one at all.
And I simply think you're underestimating just how bad the Pac-12 is. It's maybe the 7th or 8th best conference nationally. I'm amazed they got even the three bids they received - Arizona State has no business whatsoever in the tournament. A lot of top teams would look fantastic after waltzing through the Pac-12 tournament. I daresay we look rather good after beating three teams in the ACCT that are better than anyone Arizona has played.
Yeah, Ayton's really good. So's Bagley. He dropped 30 on us but we still beat Duke at Cameron.
I’m a Darden grad, so I follow the Cavs closely. Love Bennett and consider him the best in the country mixing system with talent. But Ayton is Hakeem Olajuwon. And he’s a very competent passer out of doubles and triples. If Zona is the team, it’s going to take a big effort to slay them, especially if they are getting open threes.
Oklahoma is a complete travesty. Won 2 games since the start of February. And 4 games since the beginning of the year. I’m totally convinced they are in for one reason - Trae Young.
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After he didn't even have them in the first out he said "It doesn't matter where I project Syracuse, I'm always wrong about them, so they are probably going to be in".
When you stack Cuse up against the other bubble teams, their strength of schedule really popped out. Lunardi was really high on Louisville, but SU had more Quad 1 wins and a much better SOS. But now they just need to win. ASU is a team that shouldn't be in. St. Mary's was definitely screwed. I thought they were in for sure.
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While Lunardi had them out for sure (and he's always wrong about SU), the BPI projection had them making the tournament with a 66% confidence after beating Clemson in their finale, and 98% after beating Wake Forest in the tournament. That seemed optimistic to me, but they got it right.
After he didn't even have them in the first out he said "It doesn't matter where I project Syracuse, I'm always wrong about them, so they are probably going to be in".
When you stack Cuse up against the other bubble teams, their strength of schedule really popped out. Lunardi was really high on Louisville, but SU had more Quad 1 wins and a much better SOS. But now they just need to win. ASU is a team that shouldn't be in. St. Mary's was definitely screwed. I thought they were in for sure.
I have a few problems with Syracuse getting in.
1. Their preseason schedule always seems light when compared to bigger schools. Plus, they didnt beat anyone in the preseason. Unless you count Buffalo
2. One road game in 2017. ONE. Two on neutral floors.
3. Two road wins in ACC play. Against a terrible Pitt team and a Louisville team that didnt make the tournmanet.
4. 2 Quality wins in ACC - VT and Miami.
5. Their SOS gets bumed not by their choosing. They got whooped by Kansas and just play in a tough conference. And they had a losign record in the conference.
I understand that some of the mid-majors dont face the same kind of conference schedule - but thats out of their control. A team like Ok St. who also plays all home games in preseason but had some better wins in conference (kansas twice, TT, WV, Texas, Oklahoma twice) and they beat FSU in preseason.
Oklahoma state is the school that has a gripe.
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last week when they were talking to Lunardi at halftime of one of the ACC tournament games:
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While Lunardi had them out for sure (and he's always wrong about SU), the BPI projection had them making the tournament with a 66% confidence after beating Clemson in their finale, and 98% after beating Wake Forest in the tournament. That seemed optimistic to me, but they got it right.
After he didn't even have them in the first out he said "It doesn't matter where I project Syracuse, I'm always wrong about them, so they are probably going to be in".
When you stack Cuse up against the other bubble teams, their strength of schedule really popped out. Lunardi was really high on Louisville, but SU had more Quad 1 wins and a much better SOS. But now they just need to win. ASU is a team that shouldn't be in. St. Mary's was definitely screwed. I thought they were in for sure.
I have a few problems with Syracuse getting in.
1. Their preseason schedule always seems light when compared to bigger schools. Plus, they didnt beat anyone in the preseason. Unless you count Buffalo
2. One road game in 2017. ONE. Two on neutral floors.
3. Two road wins in ACC play. Against a terrible Pitt team and a Louisville team that didnt make the tournmanet.
4. 2 Quality wins in ACC - VT and Miami.
5. Their SOS gets bumed not by their choosing. They got whooped by Kansas and just play in a tough conference. And they had a losign record in the conference.
I understand that some of the mid-majors dont face the same kind of conference schedule - but thats out of their control. A team like Ok St. who also plays all home games in preseason but had some better wins in conference (kansas twice, TT, WV, Texas, Oklahoma twice) and they beat FSU in preseason.
Oklahoma state is the school that has a gripe.
We won at Miami too
Again - they had as many or more "Quad 1" wins as the other bubble teams they were up against. Then, add in the 17th ranked SOS (vs. 47 for Louisville and 45 for ND), and excluding them would actually have been worse.
This Quadrant metric is absolutely atrocious by the way. Hammers mid major schools who by definition dont get enough opportunities.... and is way too broad-brushed... beating #73 on the road is a hell of a lot different than a top 20 school.
There's a real common sense problem when MSU at 29-4 gets seeded a 3 (but a 10 loss UNC team that got crushed by MSU gets a 2) or St Marys goes 28-5 and loses out to an Oklahoma. And if you think the SEC is a good enough conference to deserve 8 tournament bids... then how is the conference champion seeded 5th? I feel like i'm taking crazy pills.
They also beat a then undefeated Georgetown team, Maryland and UCONN. They also lost badly to Kansas.
But, when you have an almost identical resume as other bubble teams, but the SOS is much better - them getting in should have happened, and it is only because guys like Lunardi had them out that fuels a lot of the backlash
Another great example of why this Quadrant system is completely lost/useless.
This Quadrant metric is absolutely atrocious by the way. Hammers mid major schools who by definition dont get enough opportunities.... and is way too broad-brushed... beating #73 on the road is a hell of a lot different than a top 20 school.
There's a real common sense problem when MSU at 29-4 gets seeded a 3 (but a 10 loss UNC team that got crushed by MSU gets a 2) or St Marys goes 28-5 and loses out to an Oklahoma. And if you think the SEC is a good enough conference to deserve 8 tournament bids... then how is the conference champion seeded 5th? I feel like i'm taking crazy pills.
I missed the Clemson game as well. However, I stand firm that Syracuse got in not because of who they beat, its because of their conference.
They have 5 wins against tourney teams (Iona, Buffallo, VT, Miami, and Clemson) and 4 of them were home.
I am not a Syracuse hater or anything and if they go and win the whole thing, then good for them. But this quadrant thing is pretty screwed up and a team like Okie State has a legitimate beef of why they arent in there. But lets face it, there is always controversies when it comes to this.
I would haev taken Oklahoma and Syracuse out and put Okie St. and MTSU in.
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so not sure what to make of your post, lots of errors in there so not sure if the rest of it was accurate.
This Quadrant metric is absolutely atrocious by the way. Hammers mid major schools who by definition dont get enough opportunities.... and is way too broad-brushed... beating #73 on the road is a hell of a lot different than a top 20 school.
There's a real common sense problem when MSU at 29-4 gets seeded a 3 (but a 10 loss UNC team that got crushed by MSU gets a 2) or St Marys goes 28-5 and loses out to an Oklahoma. And if you think the SEC is a good enough conference to deserve 8 tournament bids... then how is the conference champion seeded 5th? I feel like i'm taking crazy pills.
I missed the Clemson game as well. However, I stand firm that Syracuse got in not because of who they beat, its because of their conference.
They have 5 wins against tourney teams (Iona, Buffallo, VT, Miami, and Clemson) and 4 of them were home.
I am not a Syracuse hater or anything and if they go and win the whole thing, then good for them. But this quadrant thing is pretty screwed up and a team like Okie State has a legitimate beef of why they arent in there. But lets face it, there is always controversies when it comes to this.
I would haev taken Oklahoma and Syracuse out and put Okie St. and MTSU in.
If you look at the metrics and quadrants and rip bpi and kenpom they choose the better resumes. May lost to a 200 +rpi team in conf tournament and need 1 good non conf win to sneak in, but they lost them all, ok state non conf SOS was over 300 which is why they missed
I had wvu and th flipped on my projected seeds
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In comment 13859581 MetsAreBack said:
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so not sure what to make of your post, lots of errors in there so not sure if the rest of it was accurate.
This Quadrant metric is absolutely atrocious by the way. Hammers mid major schools who by definition dont get enough opportunities.... and is way too broad-brushed... beating #73 on the road is a hell of a lot different than a top 20 school.
There's a real common sense problem when MSU at 29-4 gets seeded a 3 (but a 10 loss UNC team that got crushed by MSU gets a 2) or St Marys goes 28-5 and loses out to an Oklahoma. And if you think the SEC is a good enough conference to deserve 8 tournament bids... then how is the conference champion seeded 5th? I feel like i'm taking crazy pills.
I missed the Clemson game as well. However, I stand firm that Syracuse got in not because of who they beat, its because of their conference.
They have 5 wins against tourney teams (Iona, Buffallo, VT, Miami, and Clemson) and 4 of them were home.
I am not a Syracuse hater or anything and if they go and win the whole thing, then good for them. But this quadrant thing is pretty screwed up and a team like Okie State has a legitimate beef of why they arent in there. But lets face it, there is always controversies when it comes to this.
I would haev taken Oklahoma and Syracuse out and put Okie St. and MTSU in.
If you look at the metrics and quadrants and rip bpi and kenpom they choose the better resumes. May lost to a 200 +rpi team in conf tournament and need 1 good non conf win to sneak in, but they lost them all, ok state non conf SOS was over 300 which is why they missed
Yeah Ok State had MUCH, MUCH better wins. I mean I dont think its even close comparing their wins to Syracuses.
In 4-13 games, there have been four upsets in that period. When the 4 seed has either AdjO or AdjD ranked lower than 40 AND the 13 seed has an AdjO or AdjD inside the top 50, the 4 seed is 1-3. When those conditions aren't met, the 4 seed is 22-1 (Morehead State over Louisville was the one exception).
Arizona's defense is ranked 67 and Buffalos offense is 47. Hmmmmm....
Cuse was 20-13. OSU was 19-14. Cuse has the 17th hardest SOS. OSU was 56th.
Beating Kansas twice is their huge notch. I'd have taken them before Oklahoma.
Cuse was 20-13. OSU was 19-14. Cuse has the 17th hardest SOS. OSU was 56th.
Beating Kansas twice is their huge notch. I'd have taken them before Oklahoma.
Oak State has a great case over Oklahoma. Unfortunately, they don't have the marquee player that ESPN has been blowing for the entire season - Trae Young. Purely a selection based on marketing.
The ACC is deep - as usual. I think ND has an interesting case over Cuse (especially with Bonzi out) and Louisville is likely getting left out for all of the off-season catastrophe. They have played really well under the circumstances. That loss against UVA, one of the most insane collapses ever, was tragic...
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Thought they beat Seton Hall. No? They beat UVA - let's face it...that defied logic... ;)
Louisville? They didn't beat UVA.
Yeah, i had significantly less issue with these out bracket teams ... than with the Alabama and Oklahoma selections. Everyone talks about "quad 1 wins" - Alabama lost 15 fucking games. Oklahoma won how many road games exactly?
I know some of the mid majors play easy schedules - its not like the two teams above played murderers row either. I'd always take a mid major with 5 losses (St Marys - who did beat New Mexico St and Gonzaga) or 7 loss Mid Tennessee ... over the proven mediocrity above. Hey I'm sure beating Alabama on the road counted as a Quad 1 win for some major schools though.
I know some of the mid majors play easy schedules - its not like the two teams above played murderers row either. I'd always take a mid major with 5 losses (St Marys - who did beat New Mexico St and Gonzaga) or 7 loss Mid Tennessee ... over the proven mediocrity above. Hey I'm sure beating Alabama on the road counted as a Quad 1 win for some major schools though.
Mid-majors could solve their problem by not having a post-season tournament. Go old Ivy League and just give the auto-bid to the regular season winner.
But obviously economics is driving their decision (more) because they must make money from their conference tournaments...
Reliance on RPI since when? RPI is not even considered any more St. Bonaventure had an RPI of 21 and they have a play in game against UCLA. It is ridiculous that conferences that are getting in the tournament with under .500 conference schedules get automatic births instead of play in games. Syracuse getting in as a play in makes sense Bonnies 13-4 in conference does not. They keep screwing the mid major, yet the best part of the tournament is when the mid-major knocks off the major conferences. So then why are we limiting the mid-major and continuing to put in mediocre major conference teams?
Arizona worries me because Ayton is perhaps the most dominant player in the country and Trier is a stud as well. More than that, Sean Miller runs the packline defense (or at least he did in prior seasons) so if we meet up with them, they will be accustomed to dealing with our style.
Both Kentucky and Arizona have a ridiculous amount length as well, which is something that often gives us trouble.
But we will have to get past UMBC and Creighton first, and Creighton won't be a walkover.
I am telling you Davidson is a much better team than people think. Their kids can hit shots from the parking lot. Kentucky will have their hands full. Then may not survive game 1. Arizona on the other hand is hot and I agree believe they are going to give Virginia fits if they have to play them.
Boeheim does this on purpose. Playing in a major conference, he knows his team doesn't need to make an impression by scheduling and beating flashy names. Most years, just taking care of business early in the year, and hanging tough in the ACC will be enough.
I look back at the back-to-back years Bucknell won tourney games. They beat Kansas the first year as a 15 seed. Only had 4 losses. The next year, they have 3 losses, beat 3 top 25 teams and are a 9 seed, which is ridiculous for a Patriot League team, but then they knock off Arkansas just to get the matchup against a #1 seed.
Some of these small conferences get shit on. Bucknell rolled through the league this year, and had 30 point wins in their conference tourney. They lost by 12 at Chapel Hill this year and were in the game the entire way. They blew through Siena and Ball State and beat Vermont. Beat Richmond and LaSalle and rolled the Patriot League and get a 14 seed and draw MSU. They should be an 11 or 12 and have a decent shot at winning and instead are matched up against a team that is a style they will struggle with.
You can have mid-majors with 3 losses that are seeded 12 or worse. That's pretty bad.
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that 4/5 Arizona vs. Kentucky match-up worries me. Their resume and computer ratings belie their potential and ceiling and how good they will likely be in a tournament setting where they play with intensity. Teams dominated by freshman often have difficulty playing consistently throughout the season and committing to every possession in random mid-week road games. But come the tournament, they are more locked in.
Arizona worries me because Ayton is perhaps the most dominant player in the country and Trier is a stud as well. More than that, Sean Miller runs the packline defense (or at least he did in prior seasons) so if we meet up with them, they will be accustomed to dealing with our style.
Both Kentucky and Arizona have a ridiculous amount length as well, which is something that often gives us trouble.
But we will have to get past UMBC and Creighton first, and Creighton won't be a walkover.
I am telling you Davidson is a much better team than people think. Their kids can hit shots from the parking lot. Kentucky will have their hands full. Then may not survive game 1. Arizona on the other hand is hot and I agree believe they are going to give Virginia fits if they have to play them.
Agreed.
Wouldn't mind seeing UVA, Providence, or NC State make a nice run in this tourney. Sick of Duke, Kentucky, Villanova, Kansas and UNC. Other than that, I'll root for as much bracket chaos as possible.
I think WVU makes the final four this year.
All the committee has been talking about this season is the quadrant system and "quadrant 1 wins." The quadrants are determined by RPI.