Kim Jones interviewed DG on NFL Network and asked DG if the #2 pick will relate philosophically to the win now with Eli mantra. DG quoted "You have to say to yourself do you picture this guy putting on a gold jacket? Ya know, its the 2nd pick of the draft. You can't make a mistake, ya can't.
This stood out to me. Who is a realistic gold jacket worthy prospect in this draft? IMO the only two are:
Quentin Nelson
Saquan Barkley
In that order. I really think Nelson is the guy.
Opinions?
It stood out because it is basically impossible to forecast a HOF prospect in the draft unless it is an elite prospect. IMO none of the QB's are elite prospects like Peyton or Luck were. The super clean, elite prospects are Barkley & Nelson, with Nelson to me being the only prospect I can envision as a 10 year All Pro/HOF'er barring injury at the end of his career.
Number #2 picks over the last 17 years:
2017. Mitchell Trubisky QB
2016 Carson Wentz QB
2015 Marcus Mariota QB
2014 Greg Robinson. OT
2013 Luke Joeckel OT
2012 Robert Griffin III. QB
2011 Von Miller LB
2010 Ndamukong Suh DT
2009 Jason Smith OT
2008 Chris Long DE
2007 Calvin Johnson WR
2006 Reggie Bush RB
2005 Ronnie Brown RB
2004 Robert Gallery OT
2003 Charles Rogers WR
2002 Julius Peppers DE
2001 Leonard Davis OT
2000 LaVar Arrington LB
Personally I don’t care how good Nelson is, his value at 2 compared to even an above average QB just isn’t good enough.
Top RB fail more due to injury but hof can be found in any round
An Oline guy can go to the worst team in the league, be surrounded by terrible teammates, coaches, ect. Go to work for a decade and be dominant.
HOF doesn’t really mean that much.
Luck's teams were loaded with NFL talent, including a number of guys who start and have had success around the NFL like Richard Sherman, Zach Ertz, Coby Fleener, Trent Murphy, David DeCastro, etc. Jim Harbaugh was also the coach. Their teams are not comparable.
Using team records is something that can take you to strange places. If you go just a little further on that path, how many times did any of the top quarterbacks in the NFL today get to or win a bowl game?
One of the QBs would be a bigger difference maker IF they truly turn out to be a franchise type QB. The QBs are also more likely to set the team drafting back if they are not a franchise type QB taken at the 2nd overall.
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have a winning record? No. 6-7 last year and 4-9 the year before. Luck lost only 3 games with Stanford over his last 2 years. They're not comparable
Luck's teams were loaded with NFL talent, including a number of guys who start and have had success around the NFL like Richard Sherman, Zach Ertz, Coby Fleener, Trent Murphy, David DeCastro, etc. Jim Harbaugh was also the coach. Their teams are not comparable.
Jared Goff
Personally I don’t care how good Nelson is, his value at 2 compared to even an above average QB just isn’t good enough.
An above average quarterback that locks you into football purgatory for 4-5 years is terrible value. Especially when you (rightfully) commit to developing that quarterback for the first three years and suffer the opportunity cost of missing out on another more highly touted quarterback in that period. Picking the wrong QB this high is very damaging.
Jimmy Garoppolo as well. Your question wasn't "is it better for a prospect to have a winning vs losing record".
Circumstances are circumstances. By that logic, they should definitely draft a quarterback because Eli is definitely finished if he could only win 3 games last year. It has nothing to do with the coaching or the rest of the roster I guess.
I think that Rosen, Darnold and Mayfield all have HOF talent levels.
By the way, imo that's also true of a lot of NFL QBs who never made the HOF. for example, if Phil Simms had been drafted by Bill Walsh, who wanted him, he'd be in the HOF now. A QB's HOF potential is based upon their ability to pass accurately, to process information quickly and act upon it correctly, judgment, and some degree of mobility (or at least the ability to move well within the pocket. All the three mentioned seem to have those strengths.
Allen us the one whose accuracy would scare me.
You can go get a top RB or OG in free agency. You'll never get more then above average QB in free agency. Cousins is a solid QB at best (I like Cousins) and he got 84 million fully guaranteed over 3 years. Solid QBs like Cousins never hit the free agent market. So you don't risk it. You take the QB.
Rosen was 8-5 as an 18-year old freshman.
He was 3-3 in his six starts as a 19-year old sophomore.
He was 5-4 in his nine starts as a 20-year old junior.
p.s.--And he led his High School team to a California state championship victory.
You can go get a top RB or OG in free agency. You'll never get more then above average QB in free agency. Cousins is a solid QB at best (I like Cousins) and he got 84 million fully guaranteed over 3 years. Solid QBs like Cousins never hit the free agent market. So you don't risk it. You take the QB.
This. QB's just get all of the media attention which leads people to believe RB's and OL are safer as top prospects. It wasn't that long ago that Robert Gallery and Reggie Bush were both can't miss prospects at those two positions. They were both viewed as can't miss superstars and there have been plenty more over the years at positions other than just quarterback.
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No QB, even Luck, is a guaranteed Pro bowler. You look at the prospect and make your best guess. (by the way there is no guarantee that Nelson or Barkley will be Pro bowlers either.
There are things about Darnold that concern me, but the 3 top QBs are real good prospects. The one who fits, should be the pick. If they go with Barkley, they are rolling the dice with Webb. Big gamble.
You're really not doing your argument any favors by first being factually incorrect, and then falling back on overcooked bbi buzz words like 'china doll'
Quentin Nelson
Saquan Barkley
There are almost surely more than that. About seven guys go into the Hall of Fame every year. That means that on average, about seven Hall of Famers come into the league every year.
Nelson and Barkley are the guys who appear most ready to excel in the NFL, but there are a hundred things that could keep them from being the players we think they'll be.
So: Who are the other 4-6 guys who are likely to become Hall of Famers?
It's a hard question, none of us can see the future.
...QB at #2.
That is all.
I don't get excited about what DG says. I think it's refreshing to have a GM who talks but says nothing when it comes to the draft.After the last few years where info leaked as to who the Giants were interested in, DG can talk all he wants & then pick who he deems is best for our team going forward! I think this is one time where the less "asshat" information,the better!
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have a winning record? No. 6-7 last year and 4-9 the year before. Luck lost only 3 games with Stanford over his last 2 years. They're not comparable
Luck's teams were loaded with NFL talent, including a number of guys who start and have had success around the NFL like Richard Sherman, Zach Ertz, Coby Fleener, Trent Murphy, David DeCastro, etc. Jim Harbaugh was also the coach. Their teams are not comparable.
It's weird, because most of the people who get snarky about not taking a QB cite Eli, the OL, and use the OL in a vacuum to make excuses.
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Cite Eli, the record, and use the record in a vacuum to make absolutes.
It's weird, because most of the people who get snarky about not taking a QB cite Eli, the OL, and use the OL in a vacuum to make excuses.
Not for anything, but if you hadn't heard of Barkley before this offseason, I think that says more about the level to which you pay attention to CFB than it does about Barkley's talent or potential. He was plastered all over the place, especially early in the season.