In my opinion , the entire draft revolves around one central question...
Is Davis Webb the next franchise QB?
In order to figure this out , I decided to research two things.
First , even though Webb played in 2016 , how did he compare stat wise to Rosen and Darnold in 2017 , when he played the same teams as they did?
Second , how did his mechanics and play compare especially to Rosen?
Here is what my research showed...
Vs Stanford...
Rosen 66.7 % 480 yards 3 TD 2 Int 143.7 QB Rating
Webb 59.6% 393 yards 2 TD 0 Int 129.1 QB Rating
Darnold 70% 325 yards 2 TD 0 Int 212.1 QB Rating
Vs Hawaii
Rosen 88% 329 yards 5 TD 0 Int 264 QB Rating
Webb 70% 441 yards 4 TD 0 Int 163 QB Rating
Vs Texas
Darnold 57% 397 yards 3 TD 2 Int 137 QB Rating
Webb 67% 396 yards 4 TD 0 Int 183 QB Rating
Vs Arizona State
Rosen 56% 420 Yards 1 TD 1 Int 136 QB Rating
Webb 57% 478 Yards 5 TD 2 Int 151 QB Rating
Darnold 54 % 266 Yards 3 TD Int 0 146 QB Rating
Vs Utah
Darnold 54% 358 Yards 3 TD 0 Int 133 QB Rating
Webb 62% 306 Yards 4 TD 1 Int 168 QB Rating
Vs Oregon State
Darnold 65% 316 Yards 3 TD 1 Int 164 QB Rating
Webb 52% 113 Yards 0 TD 1 Int 69 QB Rating
Vs Oregon
Rosen 58% 266 Yards 2 TD 0 Int 138 QB Rating
Webb 68% 325 Yards 5 TD 0 Int 140 QB Rating
VS Southern California
Rosen 61% 421 Yards 3 TD 1 Int 144 QB Rating
Webb 64% 333 Yards 2 TD 1 Int 125 QB Rating
Vs Washington
Rosen 57% 93 Yards 1 TD 0 Int 110 QB Rating
Webb 48% 262 Yards 1 TD 3 Int 90 QB Rating
Vs Washington State
Darnold 51% 164 Yards 0 TD 1 Int 92 QB Rating
Webb 64% 425 Yards 3 TD 1 Int 146 QB Rating
Vs UCLA
Darnold 60% 264 Yards 0 TD 1 Int 132 QB Rating
Webb 66% 301 Yards 2 TD 0 Int 133 QB Rating
The research shows that Webb was very comparable stat wise when he played the same teams that Rosen and Darnold did.
Outside of Oregon State , Webb competed just as well in the other games. In fact vs Washington State , Webb outperformed Darnold. And an argument can be made that he outplayed Rosen against Washington , who had a strong defense.
Webb also had more than a few dropped passes. Against USC , one of his deep balls hit the reciever right in the hands. Should have been an easy 60 yard TD , which would have added to his stats.
However in watching Webb on tape , which I've spent hours doing. His mechanics aren't as beautiful as Rosen's.
It's very clear Rosen is a special thrower. He's very accurate , and throws a beautiful ball. He's gonna be an excellent QB. Same with Darnold.
But is Webb that far behind?
Well what does Webb do well?
First of all , he has a very strong arm. He can sling it all over the field. When he says he can throw it 75 yards , I believe him. So he won't have any problem with the wind here at Giants stadium.
Webb also is very mobile. He can roll out to his right very nicely , and throws well on the run , when he's rolling to his right. That looks very easy to him.
Also slant routes , he can make those all day. So the famous slant to Beckham throw , that Eli runs , should be no problem for Webb.
He also throws a great deep ball as well. Several times he'll put enough air into it to hit a guy 40-50 yards down the sideline , for a TD in the corner of the end zone. He does that well.
Also when he steps up in the pocket , he can throw a crossing route 20-30 yards down the field no problem. He has a talented arm , that all he has to do is just flick it.
Now what does he struggle with?
He's not as a natural of a thrower as Rosen , that's very clear. Also there are some throws because of his mechanics may not be able to hit guys in stride for YAC , like Rosen can. And that's a big deal.
He needs to process faster , and make quicker decisions , and not hesitate.
In the NFL , the ball has to come out in 3 seconds or less , or you'll get hit.
Rosen also has sometimes this same problem. He wants the big play , so he takes a sack. Both of these guys will need to learn that.
Webb also is good at throwing it to his checkdown RB.
What I've read on Webb , is that he is super talented , a hard worker , and obsessed with Football.
Those are the three things you need to be great , and he has that.
Also Pat Shurmur watched Webb's practice tape , and said it was terrific.
So all in all , do I think Webb is gonna be a good NFL QB?
Absolutely I do , however I don't think he'll be as good as Rosen.
Rosen to me is gonna be a 9/10-10/10 , but I think Webb can be a 8/10 QB.
So I believe Rosen is gonna be the better player , but not by much.
With that an argument can be made , even though Rosen is the better player.
Are the Giants a better team if they draft Saquon Barkley at RB , and have Webb be the future QB?
If Webb emerges as an 8/10 QB , are the Giants a better team drafting Saquon Barkley at RB , combined with Beckham , Engram and Shepard long term?
An argument can be made , verses drafting Rosen or Darnold?
Rosen is gonna be special , and so is Darnold in my opinion. Both will be a bit better than Webb....
However even Rosen and Darnold can't do it alone , you need a team built around these guys.
If Webb emerges are the Giants a better team , because it allows them to draft the generational talent at RB and complete there team better?
This is what my research shows , feel free to discuss , maybe together we can figure this out?
Curious your thoughts?
I think he was a steal for us and can really play, I'm not hung up at all on the 3rd round thing. In the end I trust the Giants evaluations. If they like Webb as much as Rosen, etc., then I am fine with that. If they think Rosen. etc., is that much better that they need to draft them, I'm ok too. However if Webb is even close, which I think he is no matter how one evaluates, then why not take the massive haul of 3 or 4 more premium picks and improve the team immediately.
I was just about to mention this as well. There is so much lineup/roster turnover from year to year in CFB.
Tim. Good point. The way I look at it is that a QB drafted at 2 won’t contribute this year or possibly next year. Barkley at 2 will be on the field game 1
The Giants are in no position to have this 2 pick not to contribute
None of the three QBs are sure things to be anything. Having 2 of the 3 increases our chances of being set at the (by far) most important position.
Gotta go either Darnold or Rosen at 2. Don’t get cute. Don’t get distracted by shiny toys.
I have said since pre-draft last year that Webb is a future star. The kid "gets it". So does Darnold. There is a lot more to being a successful QB in the NFL than throwing and running.
Can you be a leader of men? In crunch time will you rise or fold?
Stats don't always tell the story but these are at least interesting to consider and ponder over in supplement to the game film.
But If the OP's stats had any meaning, he would have gotten some playing time.
You could be right-- but I don't know what 8/10 means either.
Until I see it, I don't believe it. Add if your stats meant anything, he would have been the backup over Geno.
Which means vs "uncommon" opponents his stats were probably considerably worse.
Eli is past borrowed time. Act now
Norwood Right , thank you so much
Thank you Ira
I am NOT saying Webb is or should be the QB.... I am asking why aren't people willing to give Webb some credit? Or why do people think he isn't worth seriously considering as the future?
Thank you for a well written post.
I have said since pre-draft last year that Webb is a future star. The kid "gets it". So does Darnold. There is a lot more to being a successful QB in the NFL than throwing and running.
Can you be a leader of men? In crunch time will you rise or fold?
Stats don't always tell the story but these are at least interesting to consider and ponder over in supplement to the game film.
Thatlimerickguy , Thank you
Marty , obviously the opponents weren't in the same year , that's why I said Webb from 2016 , vs Rosen and Darnold from 2017.
This is the best I could do , in my research for Webb , he didn't play in 2017 at the college level , but he did play some of the same opponents they did the year before.
...thanks so much for the interesting stat comparison and evaluation!
Much appreciated!!!
I am NOT saying Webb is or should be the QB.... I am asking why aren't people willing to give Webb some credit? Or why do people think he isn't worth seriously considering as the future?
Thank you for a well written post.
John B , thank you so much
...thanks so much for the interesting stat comparison and evaluation!
Much appreciated!!!
M.S. , thank you for the kind words
I'd like to see how these QBs compare in pressure situations: end of half/game-winning scenarios. I wonder if that is something you have a sense of after looking at these three.
Link - ( New Window )
2. End game stats don’t nearly tell the whole story.
Webb is no where near as gifted as Darnold or Rosen IMO. Webb has the work ethic going for him but that’s about it. End of the day he was a Reese 3rd round pick.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J-p-1UOvpxU
(2) There was concern about the transferability from the system he played in. A lot of people pointed at Goff who was a huge question mark after his rookie year. Goff's performance this year has put some of that to rest.
It was a surprise to many when he fell to the third round. That said there are QBs going to or in the Hall of Fame that had that same experience -- it happens.
Webb gets a bad rap here in part because of the mismanagement of the HC last year. Frankly, there is less evaluation risk for the Giants on Webb then for any of the top four QBs in this draft. That doesn't mean he will be the Giant's answer, but there is hair on each of the top four QBs this year. They may be great and they may not.
vs Stanford
Rosen 27 Att 66.7 % 248 yards 1 TD 0 Int 156 QB Rating
Webb 57 Att 59.6 % 393 yards 2 TD 0 Int 129.1 QB Rating
Darnold 7 Att 71.4 % 45 yards 0 TD 1 Int 96.9 QB Rating
vs Arizona State
Rosen 43 Att 55.8 % 400 yards 2 TD 1 Int 144.7 QB Rating
Webb 56 Att 57.1 % 478 yards 5 TD 2 Int 151.2 QB Rating
Darnold 33 Att 69.7 % 352 yards 3 TD 0 Int 189.3 QB Rating
vs Arizona
Rosen 37 Att 54.1 % 350 yards 3 TD 0 Int 160.3 QB Rating
Webb did not play against Arizona
Darnold 32 Att 62.5 % 235 yards 5 TD 0 Int 175.8 QB Rating
That's an important comparison. A comparison is not a proof. The thread starter did not claim it was a fact. he explored data to try to find the basis for a comparison
That's hard to do even if they played the same teams the same year.
With the available data and with the nearest available comparables...the thread starter put in the work and did a very good fact based job and labeled opinion as opinion and was balanced and fair to all three candidates for the future. And ended the post with a well framed "so what" implication of the analysis.
Well done. imo
That’s just crazy. And impossible. And crazy.
Keep it simple. See qb. Scout qb. Decide on qb. Take qb or Barkley.
Done. I’ll save you a lot of time.
You can be sure that is exactly what the GM is doing and is doing so with every position on the team.
So it seems as if those that really like Webb pick and choose stats that suit them or watch a 3 minute YouTube highlight video showing his 20 best passes, and never actually bothered to watch full game tape of the guy or read pretty much all of his scouting reports, which properly identify him as a backup.
Those of you clamorimg for Webb are going to get what you ask for. I would imagine you were also the same people declaring Ryan Nassib the next franchise qb. Webb is a third round pick that was a reach taken there, nothing more and will be a career backup or below average starter. Is that the qb you al want leading the Giants for the next 10 years?
None of the three QBs are sure things to be anything. Having 2 of the 3 increases our chances of being set at the (by far) most important position.
Gotta go either Darnold or Rosen at 2. Don’t get cute. Don’t get distracted by shiny toys.
This is really IT. As much as I like Barkley, getting your QB successor to Eli is a much much higher priority. Given how much of a risk it is with drafting QBs, its not a problem to have two highly rated QBs draftes in successive years to compete for the job is a good thing. If Webb surprises and is the better qb, you trade the draft pick after a couple years. If the draft pick wins out, Webb is your back up for acouple years. Having 2 guys to choose from lessens your risk of a miss.
p.s.--And how do I know that Rosen will be a Pro Bowl QB? The same way you know that Barkley is gonna be a big star.
Quote:
If Webb is something like 0.9 Darnold, and we know that Barkley is 5x Gallman/Perkins/Stewart and likely 2-3x the next best RB in the draft, then Barkley + Webb > Rosen + another RB. What remains to be seen as ether relative value of Barkley + Webb versus Webb + the additional picks from trading down - the move from 2nd to the new first round pick.
If the Giants do pass on QB, I hope it's because they think these guys are garbage and not because they think Eli will play for 2+ years and Webb may be the goods.
I think you're wrong. Getting a Qb maybe Rosen or the others more than likely gives you 12+ years of solid QB play. That's better than anything you are proposing.
No one knew if Webb could operate under center or a pro offense. The Giants know some of those things now.
I do think Webb had shown he is the perfect prospect off the field. That counts for something. The handover from Eli to another hard-working, lead by example guy would be seamless.
and what the hell was that guy wearing?
I think he was a steal for us and can really play, I'm not hung up at all on the 3rd round thing. In the end I trust the Giants evaluations. If they like Webb as much as Rosen, etc., then I am fine with that. If they think Rosen. etc., is that much better that they need to draft them, I'm ok too. However if Webb is even close, which I think he is no matter how one evaluates, then why not take the massive haul of 3 or 4 more premium picks and improve the team immediately.
No one knew if Webb could operate under center or a pro offense. The Giants know some of those things now.
I do think Webb had shown he is the perfect prospect off the field. That counts for something. The handover from Eli to another hard-working, lead by example guy would be seamless.
If the Giants do pass on QB, I hope it's because they think these guys are garbage and not because they think Eli will play for 2+ years and Webb may be the goods.
I don't think the Giants will get cute, and move back if they want a QB, and the same with Barkley, if they think he is generational.
Bill Polian said this week, he has a 1st rd grade on "6 Running Backs". There's a lot to like about an additional top 50 pick/ picks, in this draft.
I am all in, however, on the 1st 2 picks go offense. Especially if a QB, who sits this year, is pick 1. If we're going Eli, give him a fighting chance, and get him some "Groceries".
Regardless, I don't think the Giants are going QB at #2. I think they will entertain any and all offers for that pick and will be looking for a #1 next year as part of it. They will then consider the best deal they can get vs drafting Barkley. If Barkley is the pick, combined with Beckham, Shepard and Engram, Webb would have plenty of talent around him.
p.s.--I appreciate that sxdxca put a lot of work into this but it was a pointless exercise. You're trying to predict the score of a game that's already been played. It's like telling someone a bunch of facts about your ancestors and then asking him to guess what color are your eyes when you are standing right in front of him. He doesn't need all those facts about your ancestors.