At the risk of many Draft Day jokes or “getting too cute,” like many of you, I’ve done some mental gymnastics over our Pick #2 -- thinking about how to get the biggest return.
I thought we could play out this scenario a bit. For the trade down crowd – let’s call this the: “How to get the biggest boatload of picks and still get Nelson in five easy steps” theory.
The real point is how to get the maximum return for your trade down if that is what you want. If you want a particular QB at any time (or any other player for that matter) take him. Otherwise, the way I see it, the key to maximizing value is not to offer a trade to allow another team to jump someone, but to make the trade with the team that is threatened with being jumped … and then dealing with the holdover team still needing to move up for the leftover.
Do it Pick-by-Pick
Don’t deal from #2 to #4. Deal #2 to #3 and then #3 to #4 and so on. The Stars Have Aligned to Keep Us In The Driver's Seat!
For example:
1) Cleveland Takes Darnold
Assuming the most likely scenario - Cleveland picks the QB of their choosing at #1. Let’s say Darnold. Also assuming the Giants really only wanted Darnold as their first choice, but given the circumstances, they could live with a choice of either Rosen or Allen if they were to stay at #2.
2) Giants Trade #2 to Jets for #3
Why not ransom the #2 to the Jets? I know the whole NY market thing, but, if we have no real conviction (and our GM is not afraid of being exposed for a different opinion that could benefit someone else more than us and have to face a backlash), why not make the Jets pay for that dynamic. I’m not necessarily saying the Giants can hold up the Jets’ for their #1 next year, but the price to allow the Jets to jump them to get their guy in the NY market, should be steep and would quiet all those Jet fans out there so happy to not have given up a first today.
They have one guy they want more. In the end, they would rather not lose him to a deal we make with Buffalo. Want your guy – pay up for that privilege -- or we’re on with Buffalo and others and you’ve got a 50/50 shot with the leftover.
[Remember Tennessee did this to us when we wanted Shockey and they ended up with Haynesworth.]
Say the Jets take the deal and pick Allen, for arguments sake, and we score the best we can (1st in 2020? – who knows). We are still in the same position as we were at #2 with; a) Barkley, Rosen and Mayfield out there; b) Nelson and others targeted by the trade down crowd still there; and c) we are presumably indifferent to having lost whichever QB is taken by the Jets.
3) Giants Trade #3 to Browns for #4
We now sit at three and Cleveland still wants Barkley to go with Darnold.
We, hypothetically, still have the same deal we had before with them. Namely, a trade of #3 for #4 rather than #2 for #4, but still ransoming the pick to Cleveland so that they can take Barkley.
It’s been speculated that a deal with Cleveland could get us #33 and #35. Again -- who knows-- but they also have #64 and #65 (the last pick of the 2nd Round and the First pick of the 3rd.)
Put on your big boy pants and see what happens.
4) Before Haul from Buffalo, Offer #4 to Broncos for #5
Say we take a deal from Cleveland as well. We now sit at #4.
We still can pick the remainder of Rosen/Allen and have, for arguments sake, #33 & #35 from Cleveland, and say a future 2020 # 1 from the Jets.
At #4 both Buffalo and Denver may still want a shot at Rosen or Mayfield and their chances to get a QB are dwindling.
Say Buffalo is still begging to deal #12 and #22 and still has other picks (53, 56, and 96) to offer to get to #4.
Buffalo may still take a deal for Rosen or Mayfield (though, I think, rumors were they were hot on Allen). What should we do -–- call Denver, of course, who has #5 and offer them #4 for their choice of Rosen / Mayfield.
If they bite--great. If they want Rosen and we can do without – done deal.
5) At #5 Check for Buffalo Last Gasp or Pick Nelson
Offer Buffalo the chance at the last upper echelon QB. If they want Mayfield, see what you can get for their move up from 12.
Obvious Caveats
Of course, this scenario relies upon preferences always aligning to the benefit of the Giants.
Along the way, one could cut the risky “pick-by-pick auction” roller coaster, and just take a deal like the Buffalo haul at some point, to avoid the possibility of them dropping their offer because their guy is now gone.
Conclusion
Thought it would just be good to think out how far the Giants could push it and still take someone like Nelson at #5 or to see how much more the Giants could get before taking something like the Bills' hypothetical offer.
Personally, boy, I’d like to get Nelson - but I would still probably pick my QB first.
Based on my limited knowledge -- The scenarios I'm rooting for (in pecking order) are as follows:
A) Darnold at 2, if available;
B) Rosen at 4 after trade downs, if available;
C) Nelson at 5 after trade downs, if available,
D) a whole bunch of extra picks and sitting at #12 making the best of no new QB with the pleasure of watching more Eli Manning in a real offensive scheme for a couple more years.
In short, If you’re willing to take Nelson at #2, go back to the beginning and read again. I’m confident this Giants regime can do more.
In any event, I’m still happy not to be Dave Gettleman who has to pull something great off while showing he is willing to think harder than the last regime.
All right, commence the "How much did this guy drink for St Paddy's day jokes?"....
Probability:highly unlikely.
Probability:highly unlikely.
True -- Old Man and thanks for the welcome in the other thread. Just a long winded point, I guess, of saying there may be some merit to staying in the driver's seat, pick by pick, rather than taking a single trade down.
That said, upon re-reading maybe I should also take NTSports1's advice and call it a night !!
But as you imply here- we need to come out of this draft with either one bona fide great player or a haul of payers to restock.
Pretty important decision upcoming.
Giants have to sell Denver that they also want whomever Denver likes or that jets do.
Denver probably likes Mayfield.
Either way, it makes the rest of your post a moot point. Plus as someone else pointed out, how many picks do the Jets have left that are worth taking?
Nice try but it doesn't add up.
I don't think NYG will trade back any further than the 5th pick with Denver.
I would prefer the 4th with Cleveland because if all the ammo they have in this years draft. A Denvet trade would have to include next years 1st round pick.
Either way, it makes the rest of your post a moot point. Plus as someone else pointed out, how many picks do the Jets have left that are worth taking?
Nice try but it doesn't add up.
Maybe they did try but their offer wasn't good enough at the time for the Giants.
It is possible between now and draft day they get antsy someone else will trade with the Giants and jump them. Forcing them to come calling again and offering their #1 next year to move up a spot.
If I'm DG I take it. He'd still get the player he wants at 3 plus an extra premium pick next year.
I don't think NYG will trade back any further than the 5th pick with Denver.
I would prefer the 4th with Cleveland because if all the ammo they have in this years draft. A Denvet trade would have to include next years 1st round pick.
I hear you Rjanyg and thanks for the reminder about #65 for Taylor!
Lost in my hypothetical is that this is really only my mumblings about the theory of this process.
If the Giants are going to do the #2 for #4 Cleveland trade, then they don't care what the Jets get in the middle. If so, why not try to extract something from them before the move by going to #3 first.
Then why not try it again with other QB desperate teams?
The point is: the Giants should not trade out until their own organizational last minute to get who they want when they can continually trade down one spot and still extract value.
From #2 the Giants can control how successive picks unfold if they hardball the Jets; read Cleveland right; and they think they can get more through multiple trade downs rather than one fell swoop of a deal.
Extremely risky, some would say even crazy behavior, for sure, but they would always have the next pick after any deal.
This only works out if Giants would be happy keeping QB if Denver is unable to draft Nelson.
There is less uncertainty with the trade, so the haul should be slightly less than if the Giants just swapped first round picks+ with Denver.