Some on bbi have spent the last month or so trying to convince anyone who will listen that these QB's aren't worthy of our pick. Yet a handful of teams has either traded up or is attempting to trade up to take one of these QB's. Obviously their scouting departments believe that these QB's are worthy, but why doesn't bbi? I think there are a few reasons:
1. Some people really, really want Barkley. A lot of these people are the same that seem to think Eli has more in the tank. They've spent a lot of time defending Eli for the past seasons or two and want to see Eli with the best possible supporting cast this season.
2. Some people think you can stock up on picks and fill a bunch of holes. So an epically bad season which we are lucky enough to find us at the top of a draft that multiple teams want, with multiple blue chip QB options and we should move back to fill a bunch of holes with lesser prospects.
3. The QB's just aren't good enough. I'm not buying this. One guy claims that Bridgewater was a better option than all of these QB prospects. Another thinks that Mahomes would have easily been the first QB taken this year. Multiple people think Rosen has a shelf life of 2 seasons because his dad will convince him to hang em up.
I don't believe that any of these are reality. I think the Giants are going QB. In fact, I think the first 3 picks will be QB. My opinion:
1. QB
2. QB
3. QB
4. Chubb
5. RB
6. OL
Even one of the best QB prospects ever, John Elway, was criticized for tapping the ball before the threw it. So it was determined that that would make it easy for NFL DBs to break on the ball. Of course, Elway was so f-ckin good throwing the ball with velocity that his rhythm tap didn't matter...
One more thing to add - I really like Mahomes. He is Brett Favre reincarnated. And I think a very good case can be made he would be right in the mix as one of the top picks. Just like I thought the same thing about last year's class...
And I think that is kinda funny...
And just what makes anyone think that the Giants will be in a draft position to get a quality QB next year or the year after.
The QBs are the ones that fly up draft boards (especially desperate teams in "quarterback hell") as teams justify need over BPA.
IF the clear BPA when a team picks is a QB and that team has an immediate need for a QB, that is a very easy decision.
Gettleman and Shurmur obviously know far more than any of us about the "absolute and relative value" of the QBs in this draft. The fact that there is not one clear consensus pick (there rarely is), but I can recall there being this much "diversity" in who the number 1 pick should be (at least 3 different QBs are talked seriously about first overall: Darnold, Rosen and Allen), with a few mentioning Mayfield.
That tells me there is a moderate to high bust potential among these 5 or 6 QBs (some will likely be very good to great). Is it worth the risk "taking a flyer" on one of these QBs? I agree with Gettleman that at the 2nd overall pick, you need to be drafting a future HOFer (with the info you have of course). That is either Barkley or Nelson. Nelson's position at guard doesn't warrant 2nd overall. Barkley's might given:
– Stronger than Joe Thomas
– Quicker than DeSean Jackson
– Faster than Devin Hester
– Jumps higher than Julio Jones
If none of the QBs or Barkley (or Nelson, Chubb or Fitzpatrick for that matter) are worth the risk, then trade down if the "king's ransom" shows up.
I think Barkley is much less risky a pick than these QBs.
So according to you you don't build a team off the draft? this is what got us into this mess in the first place. Poor draft decisions. There is nothing wrong with this thinking. If you have 4 to 6 picks in the first 3 rounds it is not out of the question you can draft maybe 5 potential starters at a controllable cost. And they are not lesser prospects if they end up as starters in the end. this is a legitimate reason in my opinion. Nothing to dismiss. You pick the wrong guy at Qb and it has happened it can set your franchise back years.
Being where we are, without mortgaging the future, cuts both ways. If we don’t get the QB, we will likely have to trade a bunch of picks to come up and get one later, without the luxury of having a mentor in position. This is a rich crop. Twenty year olds with multiple years starting and great skills and mindsets don’t come around every year, when you have a high pick. People are coming up for a reason. Being risk averse doesn’t guarantee success either. There’s an opportunity cost not taking the QB when your in a position to do so.
I could care less about the Eli debate, but what should not be debated is that when this team is ready to win Eli will be at least 38-39 and in terms of play, accuracy, and mobility he is not and has never been on the level of Brees or Brady who still thrived at his age. Yes there are lots of holes to fill and extra draft choices would be nice, but without a quality QB very few teams can win. Grab one now and pray that this opportunity does not come again soon.
I'm not sold on Webb either, however it is entirely possible he could be the answer, and I hope he gets a shot at some point to either prove he is, or prove he isn't.
Well put Allstar. Eli is under contract for 2 years, and I think it is worth putting together a good supporting cast around him which he has not been afforded for a while under Jerry Reese. I am in the Barkley camp; however, I would not be upset if they do take a QB at #2. For everyone that is in "It has to be a QB" or "Has to be Barkley" or Trade down" camp, just be happy that this team has a chance to improve. Hell! I'm excited to pick up a guy like Chubb, Nelson or Fitzpatrick in a trade down.
We simply do not know if Webb is the real deal, we also don't know if the Giants know it, we also do know that John Mara screwed up the entire process, not McAdoo, we all know he was trying to blame it all on Eli and save his job, it is Mara that needed to step in and do what was needed for the franchise, he failed completely.
So we are all screwed up in our thinking and our faith in the Giants organization, so there is plenty of guessing, convincing ourselves, changing our minds, all of the above. I admit I would love to think Eli is going to be great for 2 more seasons and then Webb is going to come in and upgrade the position. Tell me you wouldn't love to think this would happen.
Plus like every year there are QB's that are so over evaluated that people start to think they must not be good if there is this much chatter, but that is not the case at all, and the fact is that this years there are more QB's to be taken at the top of the draft than many years, so to say it is not a good year for QB's is wrong, it is. It is a good year to need a QB, that is why there are so many teams positioning themselves to move up, this is why the #2 pick is going to be so valuable. The Giants can get a kings ransom for that pick, and if Webb is the next QB then it is a pretty good idea, unless they want Barkley, then I have to agree with the people who want him. If he is a game changer he would upgrade this team tremendously.
Those who think a great running back can't overcome a bad offensive line are dead wrong, they can and they have in the past. So this pick needs to be a QB, Barkley, of a trade back, that is my opinion. If they want Chubb or Nelson, then trade back. If they can't get them trading back, I would still trade back and get all the picks I could instead of a guard, I don't want a guard at 2, no way. If Chubb were the next LT, then he would be fine at 2, but he isn't.
Paul, great post also. This new regime has a plan and all of us need to roll with it. They know better than us.
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for two more seasons. It is not an imperative that his replacement comes out of this draft. It can be next year. It could even be the year after,
And just what makes anyone think that the Giants will be in a draft position to get a quality QB next year or the year after.
Bill, I’ve already posted I don’t know anything about this QB crop, but what if, Gettleman trades down got multiple picks and maybe a one or two for next year’s draft, if there’s another group of QB’s coming out in19, we could trade up if we didn’t get one this year.
What do we have in Webb? I wish he saw meaningful time last season. I’ve seen arguments that Webb is just as good the current draft crop. No idea which way Gettleman goes just still not convinced after reading posts for QB, RB, or trading back. Is this group of WB’s as can't miss as 2004??? Don’t think so.
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" Some people think you can stock up on picks and fill a bunch of holes. So an epically bad season which we are lucky enough to find us at the top of a draft that multiple teams want, with multiple blue chip QB options and we should move back to fill a bunch of holes with lesser prospects."
So according to you you don't build a team off the draft? this is what got us into this mess in the first place. Poor draft decisions. There is nothing wrong with this thinking. If you have 4 to 6 picks in the first 3 rounds it is not out of the question you can draft maybe 5 potential starters at a controllable cost. And they are not lesser prospects if they end up as starters in the end. this is a legitimate reason in my opinion. Nothing to dismiss. You pick the wrong guy at Qb and it has happened it can set your franchise back years.
Being where we are, without mortgaging the future, cuts both ways. If we don’t get the QB, we will likely have to trade a bunch of picks to come up and get one later, without the luxury of having a mentor in position. This is a rich crop. Twenty year olds with multiple years starting and great skills and mindsets don’t come around every year, when you have a high pick. People are coming up for a reason. Being risk averse doesn’t guarantee success either. There’s an opportunity cost not taking the QB when your in a position to do so.
Bingo, spot on.
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for two more seasons. It is not an imperative that his replacement comes out of this draft. It can be next year. It could even be the year after,
And just what makes anyone think that the Giants will be in a draft position to get a quality QB next year or the year after.
The point is you may not need to. You can get a good QB anywhere in the draft. Unless Eli has a big turnaround season, the Giants probably aren't going to win a lot of games this year. If they trade down with Buffalo, it is entirely possible that Buffalo will be drafting in the top 3 picks. Buffalo is starting the year with McCarron at QB and a rookie. McCoy is getting older, and they are in a re-build mode. You don't need a top pick to get a great QB, but the fact is if the Giants trade down, they could end up with two top picks.
It's likely Gettleman is not turning this ship around with one offseason.
This for sure
You posted that chart recently. I think it tells a nice, high level story. And if you go back further, I think when you originally posted this I went back to SB1 in '66, the %s for the first round QB drifts higher.
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" Some people think you can stock up on picks and fill a bunch of holes. So an epically bad season which we are lucky enough to find us at the top of a draft that multiple teams want, with multiple blue chip QB options and we should move back to fill a bunch of holes with lesser prospects."
So according to you you don't build a team off the draft? this is what got us into this mess in the first place. Poor draft decisions. There is nothing wrong with this thinking. If you have 4 to 6 picks in the first 3 rounds it is not out of the question you can draft maybe 5 potential starters at a controllable cost. And they are not lesser prospects if they end up as starters in the end. this is a legitimate reason in my opinion. Nothing to dismiss. You pick the wrong guy at Qb and it has happened it can set your franchise back years.
Being where we are, without mortgaging the future, cuts both ways. If we don’t get the QB, we will likely have to trade a bunch of picks to come up and get one later, without the luxury of having a mentor in position. This is a rich crop. Twenty year olds with multiple years starting and great skills and mindsets don’t come around every year, when you have a high pick. People are coming up for a reason. Being risk averse doesn’t guarantee success either. There’s an opportunity cost not taking the QB when your in a position to do so.
1. This isn't true. We may be just as likely to have an elite QB available at our future pick then we will "need to trade up for one." And that could be at pick #10 overall for all we know. Three of the last four years our first pick has been between 9-12. Last year both Mahomes and Watson were taken in that draft window. Derek Carr and Jimmy G were taken in the 2nd round a couple of years ago. When people say "don't force the pick" this is exactly what they are talking about. Eli is going to be the 2018 QB, and then after that for all we know the QB could be Davis Webb. If the team isn't good next year, there will be other good prospects. You have Drew Lock and Ryan Finley next year as just a couple of guys to watch. I like Finley a lot. If he builds on 2018 watch out. He could be every bit as good or better a QB prospect than these guys next year. And Drew Lock is widely considered ahead of him right now.
It would be interesting to see the same type of analysis done with "First Team All Pro" (voted on by football writers I believe) instead of Pro Bowl.
So according to you you don't build a team off the draft? this is what got us into this mess in the first place. Poor draft decisions. There is nothing wrong with this thinking. If you have 4 to 6 picks in the first 3 rounds it is not out of the question you can draft maybe 5 potential starters at a controllable cost. And they are not lesser prospects if they end up as starters in the end. this is a legitimate reason in my opinion. Nothing to dismiss. You pick the wrong guy at Qb and it has happened it can set your franchise back years.
+2
It makes sense if a suitable offer is not presented.
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In comment 13872746 Bruner4329 said:
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" Some people think you can stock up on picks and fill a bunch of holes. So an epically bad season which we are lucky enough to find us at the top of a draft that multiple teams want, with multiple blue chip QB options and we should move back to fill a bunch of holes with lesser prospects."
So according to you you don't build a team off the draft? this is what got us into this mess in the first place. Poor draft decisions. There is nothing wrong with this thinking. If you have 4 to 6 picks in the first 3 rounds it is not out of the question you can draft maybe 5 potential starters at a controllable cost. And they are not lesser prospects if they end up as starters in the end. this is a legitimate reason in my opinion. Nothing to dismiss. You pick the wrong guy at Qb and it has happened it can set your franchise back years.
Being where we are, without mortgaging the future, cuts both ways. If we don’t get the QB, we will likely have to trade a bunch of picks to come up and get one later, without the luxury of having a mentor in position. This is a rich crop. Twenty year olds with multiple years starting and great skills and mindsets don’t come around every year, when you have a high pick. People are coming up for a reason. Being risk averse doesn’t guarantee success either. There’s an opportunity cost not taking the QB when your in a position to do so.
1. This isn't true. We may be just as likely to have an elite QB available at our future pick then we will "need to trade up for one." And that could be at pick #10 overall for all we know. Three of the last four years our first pick has been between 9-12. Last year both Mahomes and Watson were taken in that draft window. Derek Carr and Jimmy G were taken in the 2nd round a couple of years ago. When people say "don't force the pick" this is exactly what they are talking about. Eli is going to be the 2018 QB, and then after that for all we know the QB could be Davis Webb. If the team isn't good next year, there will be other good prospects. You have Drew Lock and Ryan Finley next year as just a couple of guys to watch. I like Finley a lot. If he builds on 2018 watch out. He could be every bit as good or better a QB prospect than these guys next year. And Drew Lock is widely considered ahead of him right now.
Drew Lock went back to school because he was predicted to be a mid round pick this year. Do the research, its not hard to find on him. Finley is medicore at best and will be a mid round pick. Neither would have been anywhere close to a first round pick this year, yet we want to take one in the first round next year! You can't make this stuff up!
I feel Rosen is most NFL ready and could become a franchise QB but is not durable enough to hold up over time.
So few of Mayfield statue make it (Brees, Wilson)....too risky, imo.
+1
I've seen many state that a good qb can be found in later rounds and if you draft a QB and he's not the right one it can set you back years. Not drafting one with a 37 year old declining QB can also. Plus, this isn't like years ago where a top pick can cripple you with a terrible contract.
Barkley at 2 would be become a top 5 paid RB in 2019. I love his talent but imo not a way to roster build. Looking at the roster with Barkley being the pick they'd have a top 5 paid RB. Top paid LT, 2 DE's with cap hits of 15 plus mill, Eli still on roster at 18 mill, top 5 paid LB with Ogletree. Possibly make OBJ top paid WR and also need to pay Collins. With that said. a RB has a shelf life of what? 5 to 7 years. I hope this regime is smarter when it comes to roster building.
Draft a QB!!! Rosen or Darnold at 2
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In comment 13872816 RAIN said:
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In comment 13872746 Bruner4329 said:
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" Some people think you can stock up on picks and fill a bunch of holes. So an epically bad season which we are lucky enough to find us at the top of a draft that multiple teams want, with multiple blue chip QB options and we should move back to fill a bunch of holes with lesser prospects."
So according to you you don't build a team off the draft? this is what got us into this mess in the first place. Poor draft decisions. There is nothing wrong with this thinking. If you have 4 to 6 picks in the first 3 rounds it is not out of the question you can draft maybe 5 potential starters at a controllable cost. And they are not lesser prospects if they end up as starters in the end. this is a legitimate reason in my opinion. Nothing to dismiss. You pick the wrong guy at Qb and it has happened it can set your franchise back years.
Being where we are, without mortgaging the future, cuts both ways. If we don’t get the QB, we will likely have to trade a bunch of picks to come up and get one later, without the luxury of having a mentor in position. This is a rich crop. Twenty year olds with multiple years starting and great skills and mindsets don’t come around every year, when you have a high pick. People are coming up for a reason. Being risk averse doesn’t guarantee success either. There’s an opportunity cost not taking the QB when your in a position to do so.
1. This isn't true. We may be just as likely to have an elite QB available at our future pick then we will "need to trade up for one." And that could be at pick #10 overall for all we know. Three of the last four years our first pick has been between 9-12. Last year both Mahomes and Watson were taken in that draft window. Derek Carr and Jimmy G were taken in the 2nd round a couple of years ago. When people say "don't force the pick" this is exactly what they are talking about. Eli is going to be the 2018 QB, and then after that for all we know the QB could be Davis Webb. If the team isn't good next year, there will be other good prospects. You have Drew Lock and Ryan Finley next year as just a couple of guys to watch. I like Finley a lot. If he builds on 2018 watch out. He could be every bit as good or better a QB prospect than these guys next year. And Drew Lock is widely considered ahead of him right now.
Drew Lock went back to school because he was predicted to be a mid round pick this year. Do the research, its not hard to find on him. Finley is medicore at best and will be a mid round pick. Neither would have been anywhere close to a first round pick this year, yet we want to take one in the first round next year! You can't make this stuff up!
Yeah, I've read that research. Finley is not mediocre. One year can make a big difference when it comes to how these players are perceived. Someone like Justice Hansen could find himself near the top of draft boards.
...well said, and very true!
Giants, imo, would be committing franchise suicide if passing now on qb when chance at picking this high.
And I think that is kinda funny...
I'm not trying to suggest that you are wrong, but you are totally missing the point that I was making.
Look what is happening around the NFL. Multiple teams are looking to trade up. Jets just moved up. The talk is that all of these teams dying to move up, are trying to move up to grab one of these QB's. Yet on bbi, none of these QB's are worthy of our pick. Why is that?
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In comment 13872854 allstarjim said:
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In comment 13872816 RAIN said:
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In comment 13872746 Bruner4329 said:
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" Some people think you can stock up on picks and fill a bunch of holes. So an epically bad season which we are lucky enough to find us at the top of a draft that multiple teams want, with multiple blue chip QB options and we should move back to fill a bunch of holes with lesser prospects."
So according to you you don't build a team off the draft? this is what got us into this mess in the first place. Poor draft decisions. There is nothing wrong with this thinking. If you have 4 to 6 picks in the first 3 rounds it is not out of the question you can draft maybe 5 potential starters at a controllable cost. And they are not lesser prospects if they end up as starters in the end. this is a legitimate reason in my opinion. Nothing to dismiss. You pick the wrong guy at Qb and it has happened it can set your franchise back years.
Being where we are, without mortgaging the future, cuts both ways. If we don’t get the QB, we will likely have to trade a bunch of picks to come up and get one later, without the luxury of having a mentor in position. This is a rich crop. Twenty year olds with multiple years starting and great skills and mindsets don’t come around every year, when you have a high pick. People are coming up for a reason. Being risk averse doesn’t guarantee success either. There’s an opportunity cost not taking the QB when your in a position to do so.
1. This isn't true. We may be just as likely to have an elite QB available at our future pick then we will "need to trade up for one." And that could be at pick #10 overall for all we know. Three of the last four years our first pick has been between 9-12. Last year both Mahomes and Watson were taken in that draft window. Derek Carr and Jimmy G were taken in the 2nd round a couple of years ago. When people say "don't force the pick" this is exactly what they are talking about. Eli is going to be the 2018 QB, and then after that for all we know the QB could be Davis Webb. If the team isn't good next year, there will be other good prospects. You have Drew Lock and Ryan Finley next year as just a couple of guys to watch. I like Finley a lot. If he builds on 2018 watch out. He could be every bit as good or better a QB prospect than these guys next year. And Drew Lock is widely considered ahead of him right now.
Drew Lock went back to school because he was predicted to be a mid round pick this year. Do the research, its not hard to find on him. Finley is medicore at best and will be a mid round pick. Neither would have been anywhere close to a first round pick this year, yet we want to take one in the first round next year! You can't make this stuff up!
Yeah, I've read that research. Finley is not mediocre. One year can make a big difference when it comes to how these players are perceived. Someone like Justice Hansen could find himself near the top of draft boards.
Don’t agree. I think this year is more special than you do. Don’t think Carr is special, think KC traded a boatload to come up and get Mahomes, and know it took Jimmy G years to get ready (with Belicheck). I understand the boatload of picks you can get if you trade out. If you have a conviction on one of these guys, you take him. If you have a conviction on Mayfield or Jackson and think you can have it both ways... the eval is key, but staying put and taking Darnold, Rosen, or Allen has its Merits as well if the grades are there.
I'm not sold on Webb either, however it is entirely possible he could be the answer, and I hope he gets a shot at some point to either prove he is, or prove he isn't.
Jim, you start with QB. Your plan will lead to some
improvement, but not dominance. Without a Franchise
QB we become the KC Chiefs at best. We'll be competitive
but SB dreams will be for teams with a Franchise QB.
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In comment 13872904 lax counsel said:
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In comment 13872854 allstarjim said:
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In comment 13872816 RAIN said:
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In comment 13872746 Bruner4329 said:
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" Some people think you can stock up on picks and fill a bunch of holes. So an epically bad season which we are lucky enough to find us at the top of a draft that multiple teams want, with multiple blue chip QB options and we should move back to fill a bunch of holes with lesser prospects."
So according to you you don't build a team off the draft? this is what got us into this mess in the first place. Poor draft decisions. There is nothing wrong with this thinking. If you have 4 to 6 picks in the first 3 rounds it is not out of the question you can draft maybe 5 potential starters at a controllable cost. And they are not lesser prospects if they end up as starters in the end. this is a legitimate reason in my opinion. Nothing to dismiss. You pick the wrong guy at Qb and it has happened it can set your franchise back years.
Being where we are, without mortgaging the future, cuts both ways. If we don’t get the QB, we will likely have to trade a bunch of picks to come up and get one later, without the luxury of having a mentor in position. This is a rich crop. Twenty year olds with multiple years starting and great skills and mindsets don’t come around every year, when you have a high pick. People are coming up for a reason. Being risk averse doesn’t guarantee success either. There’s an opportunity cost not taking the QB when your in a position to do so.
1. This isn't true. We may be just as likely to have an elite QB available at our future pick then we will "need to trade up for one." And that could be at pick #10 overall for all we know. Three of the last four years our first pick has been between 9-12. Last year both Mahomes and Watson were taken in that draft window. Derek Carr and Jimmy G were taken in the 2nd round a couple of years ago. When people say "don't force the pick" this is exactly what they are talking about. Eli is going to be the 2018 QB, and then after that for all we know the QB could be Davis Webb. If the team isn't good next year, there will be other good prospects. You have Drew Lock and Ryan Finley next year as just a couple of guys to watch. I like Finley a lot. If he builds on 2018 watch out. He could be every bit as good or better a QB prospect than these guys next year. And Drew Lock is widely considered ahead of him right now.
Drew Lock went back to school because he was predicted to be a mid round pick this year. Do the research, its not hard to find on him. Finley is medicore at best and will be a mid round pick. Neither would have been anywhere close to a first round pick this year, yet we want to take one in the first round next year! You can't make this stuff up!
Yeah, I've read that research. Finley is not mediocre. One year can make a big difference when it comes to how these players are perceived. Someone like Justice Hansen could find himself near the top of draft boards.
Don’t agree. I think this year is more special than you do. Don’t think Carr is special, think KC traded a boatload to come up and get Mahomes, and know it took Jimmy G years to get ready (with Belicheck). I understand the boatload of picks you can get if you trade out. If you have a conviction on one of these guys, you take him. If you have a conviction on Mayfield or Jackson and think you can have it both ways... the eval is key, but staying put and taking Darnold, Rosen, or Allen has its Merits as well if the grades are there.
It didn't take Jimmy G years to get ready...he was behind Tom Brady, geez. He had two starts in his third year and kicked ass in both of them. I think that's an unfair characterization of him, it's not his fault he got drafted to backup the GOAT.
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for two more seasons. It is not an imperative that his replacement comes out of this draft. It can be next year. It could even be the year after, although that is probably less preferable. But the idea that you take a Saquon Barkley or a trade down for extra picks means that you'll have a better team when you do get his heir apparent, AND you have more of an opportunity to evaluate the in-house candidate in Davis Webb.
I'm not sold on Webb either, however it is entirely possible he could be the answer, and I hope he gets a shot at some point to either prove he is, or prove he isn't.
Jim, you start with QB. Your plan will lead to some
improvement, but not dominance. Without a Franchise
QB we become the KC Chiefs at best. We'll be competitive
but SB dreams will be for teams with a Franchise QB.
None of these QBs are going to absolutely be superstars that would lead the team to dominance. Honestly there are two QBs in this draft I like after some fairly extensive study. To me its Darnold and Allen. Darnold I'm pretty sure will be at least a top 12 NFL QB. Top 12 doesn't guarantee anything, but I think his floor will be good enough to lead the team to respectability and the playoffs. Is he good enough to take a team deep into the playoffs on a yearly or near yearly basis? That I don't know. But I don't think it much matters because I think the Browns are taking him at #1.
The other guy I like is Josh Allen. The problem with Allen is that in evaluating him, it is very difficult because of the team around him and the talent gap that his teammates had in playing against other defenses, particularly his offensive line but not just them. He will also be challenged by the significant jump in how fast the game is played in the NFL. To agree, so will the others, but for Allen, it will be harder. He didn't have to go through a bunch of reads at Wyoming, either. A lot of times it was 1 or 2 reads and if that wasn't there, tuck it and run.
However, Allen is a physically gifted QB with a spectacular arm. I think he's smart enough to grasp NFL offenses, I think he's competitive enough to drive himself and his teammates and elevate their play. But it's just so hard to see that on the tape with him because of the program he played at.
Then there's Barkley, a home run. The surest prospect in the draft. He is a no-doubter, special player. Sometimes, it's better to just take special when it is sitting in your lap, and then you still have Eli and Webb, and if you need to next year, re-evaluate and see what's there. There is no one way to do this. We can go QB and I'd be good with it, but there is SIGNIFICANTLY more risk going that route than there is with Barkley. And you have to accept that risk.
My company is hired every year by the nfl to find statistical and analytical data on various topics. It’s usually very boring information, for example for years we worked on finding out which day would be best for them to run games. We gave them all the information and even with their rules it was not Thursday NIght.
This year we were hired to find out a plethora of different information relating to a great number of college players. With this I was able to meet Mayfield, Rosen, and Darnold. We complied every type of stat you could imagine and a lot you would never think of. We took part in a massive amount of research as well into past players. The things we look at were all the things again you would think of and a bunch of things you would not look at.
I am in no way a scout, I don’t even know the value of certain statistics and why they would matter. Plus a lot of them are also irrelevant to most scouts.During the process I also got to meet a few big name scouts and I did finally ask one of them who the Giants were drafting and he said “absolutely a qb”, that is not important though for the purposes of this post. We also compared all of this different data against players years past.
Most of us are unaware of what this data is used for, but I am fortunate enough to be at a high enough level to speak with the big bosses and pretty much know what most of this was used for.
Again I am not a scout and really would not know how to evaluate all this information to come up with a proper conclusion. Also most of this information I am in no way able to give out. However on a statistical level for the i formation we were hired to evaluate and provide. This QB class ranks with some of the very best classes. This information is not always perfect as some of the other classes were all shitty nfl quarterbacks, but the big time NFL QB classes also would all rank near the top. Even though rankining these players against players of years past is not what they are looking at.
The Jets don't have anything other than a journeyman QB -- they haven't had a real one for many years. They have the best chance this year - where there is a large crop of QBs that have great skills - of possibly landing one that will be better than anything they have had in a decade.
They are desperate, as is Buffalo who is in the same boat, and their move up to #3 reeks of desperation. So I don't take anything away from what the Jets or Buffalo has done or is doing other than that they are desperate for something resembling a QB. And I will state that buying hungry in the draft is never a good thing.
Now I can think of a great arguments for and against picking each of the 5 QBs that are probably slated to go in the first round this year.
Darnold - shows flashes of great potential -- but he also shows flashes of highly questionable judgment -- his production was wildly inconsistent in his last two years of college -- a great junior year followed by an up and down senior year -- and a possibly of being overwhelmed by the big stage. 3% of his college snaps have been under center, and he doesn't pass QB 101 as defined by Gettleman.
Rosen -- is a tremendous talent. He throws a beautiful and accurate ball. He has had some very prolific game stats - especially in the last two years. He looks and smells like a terrific NFL QB. But he goes down at the absolutely worst times, and I don't question his toughness, but I question his mind. He is one very self assured dude an he thinks he knows better than most NFL professionals -- and I worry about his mentality and whether he will get the NFL game and whether he will endure the toughness of it. He has thrown from under center quite a bit -- so he is one of the two QBs in the draft that can probably pass Gettlemen's QB 101.
Josh Allen is an enigma -- his measureables are off the charts. His pure sill set smells like an NFL star. He also has shown he can take and is receptive to coaching, but his production stats show a wild fluctuation between his ability and consistency of execution. In that sense he is scary because he shows tremendous flashes and ability and very poor production when measured by consistency. He also can probably pass Gettleman's QB 101 and has taken more snaps under center than Rosen.
The there is Baker Mayfield, short zippy, mobile and accurate, with a fire in his belly with an arrogant demeanor and questionable intelligence. He shows the desire but he keeps whacking his head on low hanging beams and tripping over himself. Very few snaps under center.
Then there is Lamar Jackson -- the Heisman trophy winner (HTW). I can't remember the last HTW that made it in the NFL. He also never played in an NFL style offense and his college production may not match up in the NFL.
I easily see them being Ryan Tannehill, Jeff George, Johnny Football, Teddy Bridgewater and Ryan Leaf-- each of whom never amounted to much
or they could be Mathew Stafford, Andrew Luck, Jay Cutler, Randall Cunningham and Mike Vick
It really depends on what day it is for me -- the one I have the highest conviction in is Rosen. But he has his warts. My second highest conviction is with Allen -- but he could be a total dud too.
SO my heart goes pitter patter and my pulse goes up with these two, but I feel an equal seizure of terror with them.
Then there's Barkley. He looks like the surest hing since sliced bread to me -- three years of phenomenal production, his character and measurables are other worldly, there is not even a chinck in his armor and his thighs look like rocket power. He leaps over tall buildings and looks like the flash out there, my buddy Sy put the highest ranking on him than he's ever placed on an NFL draft prospect since he's been grading college players.
So it comes down to this -- I don't want to walk away with Ryan Leaf in the number two spot and it's happened before -- I want to walk away with a sensational player -- Barkley is that player -- I'm afraid to walk away with the wrong QB -- and my consolation prize would be Nelson if put to the test.
Frankly Barkley puts the Giants into the next gear in my opinion -- Rosen may or may not. Nelson would at least solidify a real area of need. And Fitzpatrick and Chubb would also fill a real area of need
This is what's going through my mind - I would love to get our next QB this draft and Gettleman has to get this one right -- but it sure looks like the safest move is not picking a QB -- there's a lot riding on this draft pick.
The Jets don't have anything other than a journeyman QB -- they haven't had a real one for many years. They have the best chance this year - where there is a large crop of QBs that have great skills - of possibly landing one that will be better than anything they have had in a decade.
They are desperate, as is Buffalo who is in the same boat, and their move up to #3 reeks of desperation. So I don't take anything away from what the Jets or Buffalo has done or is doing other than that they are desperate for something resembling a QB. And I will state that buying hungry in the draft is never a good thing.
Now I can think of a great arguments for and against picking each of the 5 QBs that are probably slated to go in the first round this year.
Darnold - shows flashes of great potential -- but he also shows flashes of highly questionable judgment -- his production was wildly inconsistent in his last two years of college -- a great junior year followed by an up and down senior year -- and a possibly of being overwhelmed by the big stage. 3% of his college snaps have been under center, and he doesn't pass QB 101 as defined by Gettleman.
Rosen -- is a tremendous talent. He throws a beautiful and accurate ball. He has had some very prolific game stats - especially in the last two years. He looks and smells like a terrific NFL QB. But he goes down at the absolutely worst times, and I don't question his toughness, but I question his mind. He is one very self assured dude an he thinks he knows better than most NFL professionals -- and I worry about his mentality and whether he will get the NFL game and whether he will endure the toughness of it. He has thrown from under center quite a bit -- so he is one of the two QBs in the draft that can probably pass Gettlemen's QB 101.
Josh Allen is an enigma -- his measureables are off the charts. His pure sill set smells like an NFL star. He also has shown he can take and is receptive to coaching, but his production stats show a wild fluctuation between his ability and consistency of execution. In that sense he is scary because he shows tremendous flashes and ability and very poor production when measured by consistency. He also can probably pass Gettleman's QB 101 and has taken more snaps under center than Rosen.
The there is Baker Mayfield, short zippy, mobile and accurate, with a fire in his belly with an arrogant demeanor and questionable intelligence. He shows the desire but he keeps whacking his head on low hanging beams and tripping over himself. Very few snaps under center.
Then there is Lamar Jackson -- the Heisman trophy winner (HTW). I can't remember the last HTW that made it in the NFL. He also never played in an NFL style offense and his college production may not match up in the NFL.
I easily see them being Ryan Tannehill, Jeff George, Johnny Football, Teddy Bridgewater and Ryan Leaf-- each of whom never amounted to much
or they could be Mathew Stafford, Andrew Luck, Jay Cutler, Randall Cunningham and Mike Vick
It really depends on what day it is for me -- the one I have the highest conviction in is Rosen. But he has his warts. My second highest conviction is with Allen -- but he could be a total dud too.
SO my heart goes pitter patter and my pulse goes up with these two, but I feel an equal seizure of terror with them.
Then there's Barkley. He looks like the surest hing since sliced bread to me -- three years of phenomenal production, his character and measurables are other worldly, there is not even a chinck in his armor and his thighs look like rocket power. He leaps over tall buildings and looks like the flash out there, my buddy Sy put the highest ranking on him than he's ever placed on an NFL draft prospect since he's been grading college players.
So it comes down to this -- I don't want to walk away with Ryan Leaf in the number two spot and it's happened before -- I want to walk away with a sensational player -- Barkley is that player -- I'm afraid to walk away with the wrong QB -- and my consolation prize would be Nelson if put to the test.
Frankly Barkley puts the Giants into the next gear in my opinion -- Rosen may or may not. Nelson would at least solidify a real area of need. And Fitzpatrick and Chubb would also fill a real area of need
This is what's going through my mind - I would love to get our next QB this draft and Gettleman has to get this one right -- but it sure looks like the safest move is not picking a QB -- there's a lot riding on this draft pick.
Great post
The Jets don't have anything other than a journeyman QB -- they haven't had a real one for many years. They have the best chance this year - where there is a large crop of QBs that have great skills - of possibly landing one that will be better than anything they have had in a decade.
They are desperate, as is Buffalo who is in the same boat, and their move up to #3 reeks of desperation. So I don't take anything away from what the Jets or Buffalo has done or is doing other than that they are desperate for something resembling a QB. And I will state that buying hungry in the draft is never a good thing.
Now I can think of a great arguments for and against picking each of the 5 QBs that are probably slated to go in the first round this year.
Darnold - shows flashes of great potential -- but he also shows flashes of highly questionable judgment -- his production was wildly inconsistent in his last two years of college -- a great junior year followed by an up and down senior year -- and a possibly of being overwhelmed by the big stage. 3% of his college snaps have been under center, and he doesn't pass QB 101 as defined by Gettleman.
Rosen -- is a tremendous talent. He throws a beautiful and accurate ball. He has had some very prolific game stats - especially in the last two years. He looks and smells like a terrific NFL QB. But he goes down at the absolutely worst times, and I don't question his toughness, but I question his mind. He is one very self assured dude an he thinks he knows better than most NFL professionals -- and I worry about his mentality and whether he will get the NFL game and whether he will endure the toughness of it. He has thrown from under center quite a bit -- so he is one of the two QBs in the draft that can probably pass Gettlemen's QB 101.
Josh Allen is an enigma -- his measureables are off the charts. His pure sill set smells like an NFL star. He also has shown he can take and is receptive to coaching, but his production stats show a wild fluctuation between his ability and consistency of execution. In that sense he is scary because he shows tremendous flashes and ability and very poor production when measured by consistency. He also can probably pass Gettleman's QB 101 and has taken more snaps under center than Rosen.
The there is Baker Mayfield, short zippy, mobile and accurate, with a fire in his belly with an arrogant demeanor and questionable intelligence. He shows the desire but he keeps whacking his head on low hanging beams and tripping over himself. Very few snaps under center.
Then there is Lamar Jackson -- the Heisman trophy winner (HTW). I can't remember the last HTW that made it in the NFL. He also never played in an NFL style offense and his college production may not match up in the NFL.
I easily see them being Ryan Tannehill, Jeff George, Johnny Football, Teddy Bridgewater and Ryan Leaf-- each of whom never amounted to much
or they could be Mathew Stafford, Andrew Luck, Jay Cutler, Randall Cunningham and Mike Vick
It really depends on what day it is for me -- the one I have the highest conviction in is Rosen. But he has his warts. My second highest conviction is with Allen -- but he could be a total dud too.
SO my heart goes pitter patter and my pulse goes up with these two, but I feel an equal seizure of terror with them.
Then there's Barkley. He looks like the surest hing since sliced bread to me -- three years of phenomenal production, his character and measurables are other worldly, there is not even a chinck in his armor and his thighs look like rocket power. He leaps over tall buildings and looks like the flash out there, my buddy Sy put the highest ranking on him than he's ever placed on an NFL draft prospect since he's been grading college players.
So it comes down to this -- I don't want to walk away with Ryan Leaf in the number two spot and it's happened before -- I want to walk away with a sensational player -- Barkley is that player -- I'm afraid to walk away with the wrong QB -- and my consolation prize would be Nelson if put to the test.
Frankly Barkley puts the Giants into the next gear in my opinion -- Rosen may or may not. Nelson would at least solidify a real area of need. And Fitzpatrick and Chubb would also fill a real area of need
This is what's going through my mind - I would love to get our next QB this draft and Gettleman has to get this one right -- but it sure looks like the safest move is not picking a QB -- there's a lot riding on this draft pick.
This perfectly sums up my own thoughts on this matter. Everyone one of these QBs could be very good, but everyone of them has a fatal flaw that scares the crap out of me. The Giants' drafted Eli and I was PUMPED. The Giants draft any of these QBs and I'm crossing my fingers for the next two years.
I would rather draft Barkley or Nelson and know that we very likely have a Pro Bowl-quality player on our roster.
No worries. A lot of the stats are very interesting. Not just on the QBs!
gidie, I'm not sure why we are taking the Bills and Jets out of the equation. The reason they are QB hungry is because they haven't been in this position to take a blue chip QB. You find flaws, yet teams are fighting to move up and take these guys. The only reason we see flaws is because Barkley doesn't really have any. I would agree, Barkley is the safest pick, but that's not really how the NFL works. QB is valued so much more.
But is drafting scared any better?
gidie, I'm not sure why we are taking the Bills and Jets out of the equation. The reason they are QB hungry is because they haven't been in this position to take a blue chip QB. You find flaws, yet teams are fighting to move up and take these guys. The only reason we see flaws is because Barkley doesn't really have any. I would agree, Barkley is the safest pick, but that's not really how the NFL works. QB is valued so much more.
out of the equation for the reasons I outlined - you can discard them -- but at least say you are discarding them -- I don;t know why you are not sure -- I was very specific about my reasons
they are also QB hungry because nether of them has had a QB in a decade or more and they have nothing to show for it -- hence they are desperate
I address the value of QB in my writing -- even stating that I wish we would get one -- but listing my concerns about them
But is drafting scared any better?
exactly -- if I'm drafting QB - i'm drafting scared -- from my position -- I'm going with picks that don't scare me
2. Personality is obviously a major factor drafting a QB. A couple of them have questions that probably placed a great deal of emphasis on their interviews with the team. That's a variable nobody can really predict. Ditto for clean medical history which could also take Rosen off the board.
3. When taking into account the first 2 points, it's entirely possible that the Giants pick comes down to the 4th best QB in terms of on-field grade or taking Barkley, who might have the highest individual grade in the entire draft class.
I'm not saying any of this to predict the Giants will or won't take a QB. I think the fact they didn't do a trade with the Jets means it's 100% on the table. If I was going to guess right now I'd say they probably will take a QB. I just don't see how they will know for sure what they are going to do until they see who goes #1.
and much rather down the line have the QB position (most likely) being revolving door of journeymen qbs a la Dave browns, Kent grahams, Danny kennels, etc of this era.