Take a look at 1981 (looked because of Giants having the second overall pick and we drafted "you know who").
Only 1 QB drafted in each of rounds 1, 2 & 3 (not counting supplemental draft).
20 QBs taken in 12 round, 332 player draft.
No HOF QBs
Only 2 QBs made the Pro Bowl (Neil Lomax and Wade Wilson)
The game is very, very different in 2018 than in 1981, but I was very surprised how bad the QBs turned out to be.
Now 2 years later in 1983 (again from Wikipedia):
| This year's draft is frequently referred to as the draft with the quarterback class of 1983, because six quarterbacks were taken in the first round, an unusually high number. Of these quarterbacks, four played in the Super Bowl, four were selected to play in the Pro Bowl, and three have been inducted into the Pro Football Hall of Fame. The next highest number of quarterbacks taken in the first round is the five taken in the 1999 NFL draft. All six quarterbacks were drafted by American Football Conference (AFC) teams, with every member of the five-team AFC East (the Colts, Dolphins, Bills, Jets and Patriots) selecting a quarterback.[3] In eleven of the sixteen years following this draft, the AFC was represented in the Super Bowl by a team led by one of these quarterbacks: the Denver Broncos by John Elway (five times), the Buffalo Bills by Jim Kelly (four times), the Miami Dolphins by Dan Marino (once), or the New England Patriots by Tony Eason (once). |
Some have said that 6 QBs will be taken in the first round in 2018. I'm not seeing an Elway, Marino or Jim Kelly among the 2018 QBs.
Recall the 1983 QBs:
1st Overall, John Elway Colts picked & traded to Denver from Stanford (NFL HOF)
7th Overall Todd Blackledge, Chiefs, Penn State (no HOF or Pro Bowl)
14th Overall Jim Kelly, Bills, Miami (Fla) (NFL HOF)
15th Overall Tony Eason, Patriots, Illinois, (no HOF or Pro Bowl)
24th Overall, Ken O'Brien, Jets, UC Davis (no HOF, made Pro Bowl)
25th Overall, Dan Marino, Dolphins, Pittsburgh (HOF)
Other HOFers from the first round in 1983:
2nd Overall, Eric Dickerson (RB), Rams, SMU
9th Overall, Bruce Matthews (OT), Oilers, USC
28th Overall, Darryl Green, CB), Redskins, Texas A& I
So in 1983, 6 QBs in the first round, with HOFers taken with the 1st overall, 14th overall and 25 overall.
Or in 1983, 6 HOFers taken in the first round, 3 QBs and 3 non QBs.
My assessment:
In a "Quarterback draft", there still are hits and misses in the first round.
Even in a "Quarterback draft", there likely is potential HOF talent at multiple non QB positions.
The key (in any draft) is drafting the right player, not the right position.
Wikipedia - 1981 NFL Draft - (
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I'd rather have Elway, Marino (and probably Kelly) than Dickerson, Matthews or Green.
I'd rather have Dickerson, Matthews or Green than Blackledge, Eason or O'Brien.
It's about the right player.
p.s.--When Peyton, Brady, and Rodgers were drafted, nobody was they saw Elway, Marino, and Kelly.
Yes, they all played QB in college. That is where the comparison ends.
IMHO, at his peak, Elway is the GOAT at QB. Arm strength, accuracy, mobile in the pocket, running threat outside the pocket, high football IQ. He was stuck with the dunderhead Dan Reeves as his head coach during his prime. So other than arm strength, Allen is not even close to John Elway.
Once he became a starter, Marino played in every game for 9 straight seasons. Other than accuracy (and that's debatable), Rosen isn't close to Marino.
Darnold has the mobility (more like Elway than Kelly). I don't see Darnold comparisons to Kelly.
Allen, Darnold and Rosen aren't all going to be the next Elway, Kelly and Marino (likely none of them will equal those HOFers).
The odds are that for every potential Elway, Kelly and Marino, there is a Blackledge, Eason or O'Brien. I think the "bust rate" or even the "didn't meet expectations rate" is higher for the 2018 QBs than for Barkley or Nelson.
The 2nd overall pick is hugely valuable. The Giants have to get the right player (or players with a trade down) with that pick.
Yes, they all played QB in college. That is where the comparison ends.
IMHO, at his peak, Elway is the GOAT at QB. Arm strength, accuracy, mobile in the pocket, running threat outside the pocket, high football IQ. He was stuck with the dunderhead Dan Reeves as his head coach during his prime. So other than arm strength, Allen is not even close to John Elway.
Once he became a starter, Marino played in every game for 9 straight seasons. Other than accuracy (and that's debatable), Rosen isn't close to Marino.
Darnold has the mobility (more like Elway than Kelly). I don't see Darnold comparisons to Kelly.
Allen, Darnold and Rosen aren't all going to be the next Elway, Kelly and Marino (likely none of them will equal those HOFers).
The odds are that for every potential Elway, Kelly and Marino, there is a Blackledge, Eason or O'Brien. I think the "bust rate" or even the "didn't meet expectations rate" is higher for the 2018 QBs than for Barkley or Nelson.
The 2nd overall pick is hugely valuable. The Giants have to get the right player (or players with a trade down) with that pick.
Trainmaster, you sound like a 'glass half empty' guy? :)
Taking a QB with the 2nd overall pick is really a gamble IMHO. Taking Barkley or trading down might not have as high a ceiling as finding the next franchise QB, but not taking a QB also has a much lower chance of a "complete whiff" with the 2nd overall pick or its trade down equivalent.
Taking a QB with the 2nd overall pick is really a gamble IMHO. Taking Barkley or trading down might not have as high a ceiling as finding the next franchise QB, but not taking a QB also has a much lower chance of a "complete whiff" with the 2nd overall pick or its trade down equivalent.
Trainmaster, which QB's will be 'complete whiff'
and why?
Blackledge was the ONLY miss in the QB draft of 83.
Eason and O'Brien both had solid careers. That means 5 out of 6 were "hits" and 3 of the 6 were HOF hits.
I wouldn't exactly call it a QB draft with first RD hits and misses.
There is only one QB on the field at a time. If the QB is just average, you either suffer through with an average QB, or you bench him and start over.
William Roberts and Eric Moore didn’t plan out as left tackles, but still had good careers. Robert Gallery wasn’t a total bust. Ryan Leaf was. So was Jamarcus Russell (a can’t miss prospect).
If Barkley, Chubb or Nelson aren’t 2nd round overall pick worthy, there is a lot of room down to “bust”. Not so much with a QB.
Ouch.
(Kinard was a nice player, but with all that talent, can only be considered a 'whiff')
There are no guarantees, but this draft has been talked about for a couple years as being a strong QB class and the higher you pick, the better your odds of getting the Elway vs. the Blackledge or the Peyton vs. the Leaf, etc.