Fun with mocks

Morning guys. For those that haven’t seen it we have updated our three-round projection for this month’s draft – only 17 days to go; hang in there! Folks are certainly are invited to take a look at the Giants picks, although they come with the proviso that, with the exception of the 2nd pick, like everybody else we are just guessing! Indeed, over the years we have liked to add the note that we generally aren't big fans of mock drafts. They are fun to do and, analyzed correctly, can provide some useful information. However, most fans tend to read them as 'mini-drafts' and focus only on the picks assigned to their respective team and ultimately miss the point of the exercise which is not to identify which particular player a particular team is going to pick at a particular spot in the draft, but to give some idea what players are likely to be available at different spots in the draft. And in doing this latest mock several things did jump out at us that will likely impact how the Giants approach this year’s draft, in particular once we get out of the opening round.

For the record, we have the Giants taking Josh Rosen with the #2 pick. Of course, we won’t know for sure until the 26th whom they actually select, but it wouldn’t surprise us despite some media reporting to the contrary that Rosen’s actually been the Giants’ guy for several weeks now. The Giants appear to be doing due diligence on a lot of players but you simply don’t send a 5-man contingent to a guy’s pro day and then come back a week later with an 8-man group at a private workout unless you already have a really good grade on the player. And your owner doesn’t make a 6,000 mile cross-country round trip trip to have dinner with the kid if your aren’t seriously, seriously looking at him. That’s what tells tell you and in draft terms that may have been the mother-of-all-tells!

As we have stated before though what could be the most interesting part of the Giants 2018 draft is what they do with their second-day picks. And the first thing that jumps out at one is just how many good players are likely to be available when the Giants make their second round pick. In fact, interior offensive linemen Isaiah Wynn, James Daniels and Billy Price were all still on the board at #34 and while that may seem a tad unlikely it’s hard to see a scenario where at least 1-2 of those guys don’t make it to the second round. For the record, there are whispers that Wynn (shoulder) and Price (pecs) may slip because of injuries. There is also the reality that the only teams that usually take OGs and Cs in the opening round are teams that really need one and there really aren’t many of those types of teams about picking in the latter part of the opening round. And if those OL don’t fall it will just push other players down to #34.

And while the offensive line obviously still needs work, the argument can be made that the Giants actual biggest remaining need is at CB where their two starters are on-again, off-again head cases and they have little if any depth. The good news for the Giants, though, is that along with C/G, the strength of the early part of the second round is at CB as there is a better than even chance that several corners such as Carlton Davis, Isaiah Oliver, Mike Hughes, Donte Jackson, and maybe even Josh Jackson (who went late first in our mock) could be available. In the end, we went with Wynn at #34 (in no small part because we’d catch grief from you guys if we didn’t). But it was awfully tempting to take one of those corners.

The other thing complicating the CB issue is that it appears there will be a major drop-off at the position into the 3rd round. There are, for example, several legit starting quality CBs in the second round, whereas the corners likely to be available in the 3rd are more situational types. (Note though that one can make the same argument about the offensive line).

The other issue we expect the Giants would like to address in this year’s draft is the pass rush or apparent lack thereof at this time. And that’s not to mention the fact that they are transitioning to a 3-4 but have virtually no prototype 3-4 players on the roster. The interesting thing with the ERs is that there likely won’t be much there in the second round although we wonder if the Giants might be really interested in Lorenzo Carter of Georgia as an edge rushing OLB if he slipped into the second round. He appears to be one of the rising stars in this year’s draft. In contrast, it looks like there will be a number of ERs and 5T DEs available in the 3rd. We had the Giants taking Rasheem Green and Uchenna Nwosu both of USC with their two 3rd round picks, but there were several other DE types including Da’Shawn Hand of Alabama, Trent Thompson of Georgia while ERs still on the board included Turay of Rutgers, Sweat of Florida State, Okoronkwo of Oklahoma, and Ade Aruna of Tulane.

Of course, the Giants could go in other directions. There were pretty good RBs available early in both the second and third rounds. There were also some decent developmental type OTs in the third.

The early returns also suggest that the Giants could have some options in the 4th round. Guys that we didn’t have going in the first three rounds include RBs Rashaad Penny, Royce Freeman, Jaylen Samuels, Bo Scarborough, and Kalen Ballage; OLBs Oren Burks, Marquis Haynes, Jeff Holland and Shaq Griffin; DEs Chad Thomas and Breeland Speaks; CBs Ike Yiadom, Quenton Meeks and Avonte Maddox; OL like Mason Cole, Alex Cappa, Jamarco Jones and Joe Noteboom. Of course, some of those guys will go earlier, but that in turn just pushes other guys down. Should be a fun weekend when it finally gets here.