|
|
Â
|
| Quote: |
| Accorsi recently served as a consultant for Mara and co-owner Steve Tisch in the general manager search that brought Dave Gettleman back into the fold. Though Accorsi is not advising Gettleman on the most important draft-day decision for the franchise since Manning came aboard, with the Giants owning the No. 2 overall pick in this year’s draft, he certainly has a vested interest and also a warning. If it is to be a quarterback, Accorsi cautioned, make sure the one you take is the one you love, deeply and unwaveringly. “If you’re gonna pick a quarterback high, you’ve got to believe in your heart that he can win a championship,’’ Accorsi said. “You have all these checklists on measurables — there’s no question they’re important — but when it comes right down to it, you’ve got to feel it. “If I don’t think this guy can win a championship, I’m not gonna have a conviction. You have to believe that. If you don’t believe that then don’t pick a quarterback high. Because if you’re wrong, it could set you back — this may sound like an exaggeration — it could set you back 8-10 years. Because you’re gonna play him, very rarely do they play well the first two or three years. You’re not gonna know, is he just adjusting or is he a bust? You’re gonna have to give him time.’’ This is what the Giants must consider when analyzing Sam Darnold, Josh Rosen, Josh Allen and Baker Mayfield. They are all intriguing, but will there be that conviction on any of them? Accorsi said he believes the criteria Gettleman established for the No. 2 pick — you must be able to project the player as a future Hall of Famer and that he must be deemed worthy of the second-overall selection in any draft — are sound. Accorsi has watched the quarterback prospects in this draft but has not studied them the way the Giants have and continue to do. “You can’t draft by the curve at quarterback,’’ Accorsi said. “If it happens to be one of those drafts where there’s only one great player, you can’t invent one if you’re picking 2. There may be a draft you do have that worry. This draft I don’t think you have that worry. “Dave’s got more options than I had. He’s got a bunch of options. He can go a lot of different directions.’’ Running back Saquon Barkley, defensive end Bradley Chubb and guard Quenton Nelson are widely viewed as can’t-miss prospects. These riches were not available to Accorsi in 2004. If he had not been able to secure Manning or Roethlisberger, the next player he coveted was receiver Larry Fitzgerald, who went No. 3 to the Cardinals. “There weren’t a lot of options after that,’’ Accorsi said. |
Allen- too many red flags on the field. Accuracy and production don't live up to where he will be drafted. I can't see the Giants taking him.
Mayfield- Probably not going to be the pick because he is a big 12 system QB, undersized, and comes off as stubborn/arrogant.
Rosen- Maybe he could be the guy, but for some reason I feel like the Giants aren't sold on him.
My gut is it is Darnold/Chubb/Barkley
and
I'm perfectly fine passing on every one of the 2018 QBss with the 2nd overall pick for the reasons Accorsi states.
Allen- too many red flags on the field. Accuracy and production don't live up to where he will be drafted. I can't see the Giants taking him.
Mayfield- Probably not going to be the pick because he is a big 12 system QB, undersized, and comes off as stubborn/arrogant.
Rosen- Maybe he could be the guy, but for some reason I feel like the Giants aren't sold on him.
Interesting this article came out after the Garafolo report on how well Chubb's visit went. It's almost laying the groundwork on how they aren't going to pick a QB if as I expect Darnold goes #1 to the Browns.
The draft had very similar options
Gallery was the franchise LT safest pick in tbe draft. The Nelson.
Fitzgerald was the HoF once in a generation talent at a skill position. The Barkley.
Taylor was the best decensive player in draft. Safety was the hot D position then. The Chubb
Many people like Rivers but had questions anout his delivery. The Allen.
Big Ben was considered incredibly risky because of his competition and big personality. The Rosen
Eli was the most peoples top pick and considered safest of 3 but there were some questions that it was just his last name. It was common to say what if his nane was Eli Smith? The Darnold.
Many thought the 3 interchangeable. No seperation between them.
Most considered the best players to be Fitz, Gallery, Taylor.
Giants were tossed over replacing their QB who led them to a SB and uncertain of a rebuild ir retool.
Very, very similar.
Also, yeah picking the wrong QB will set you back, but not even taking a shot at one when a golden opportunity presents itself is even worse. If they pass here, when will this team really have a shot at another one? And when will they really be able to compete? Look at the QBs around the NFC, all fairly young and all studs. It’s loaded now and for the foreseeable future.
Also, yeah picking the wrong QB will set you back, but not even taking a shot at one when a golden opportunity presents itself is even worse. If they pass here, when will this team really have a shot at another one? And when will they really be able to compete? Look at the QBs around the NFC, all fairly young and all studs. It’s loaded now and for the foreseeable future.
I totally agree toast. I don’t see them not taking a QB in this draft. I think by not doing so it will set us farther back. I definitely could be wrong but with all the Barkley and then Chubb talk, I think they are targeting at least 2 of these QBs.
My question is simple the Giants love Darnold but the Browns may love him more does that then mean the Giants should do what he did or just take one of the next two BPA on their board. Accorsi quoted a philosophy but did everything against it to gamble on a belief he could get a trade done does that sound smart?
I won't criticize Gettleman if he takes a quarterback, but he has to have that conviction similar to what Accorsi had of Eli. If not, pass
The jets have been forcing quarterback picks and look where they are. The same can be said of the Broncos. Convincing yourself of a quarterback is a recipe for disaster
So make the right choice. But talking like the only outcomes are selecting an NFL all time great he will be a franchise crippling failure is utter nonsense. That spin won’t help you if you blow the opportunity.
I think PS said it best when he said we know what a good quarterback looks like. Forget all this fear mongering. Do any of these guys look like good quarterbacks or not? It should be that simple.
So make the right choice. But talking like the only outcomes are selecting an NFL all time great he will be a franchise crippling failure is utter nonsense. That spin won’t help you if you blow the opportunity.
I think PS said it best when he said we know what a good quarterback looks like. Forget all this fear mongering. Do any of these guys look like good quarterbacks or not? It should be that simple.
Maybe it doesn't set you back 8 years but it will definitely set you back at least 5 years while playing losing or mediocre football in the process and possibly getting everyone fired as well. This is real life stuff. If DG misses he might not get a do over once the dust settles...same goes with Shurmur even though its not his ultimate decision.
In this situation lets say they take a risk on one of the QB's....he sits behind Manning for 1-2 years. He comes in to play. He has a honeymoon period of another 1-2 years. By year 3 if he hasn't put it together you start feeling he is a bust. Thats 4-5 years. Meanwhile guys like Barkley or Chubb are tearing up the league at their respective positions and the team has most likely at best been playing mediocre football.
This QB class is special because the red flags are unpredictable and enormous problems. Its not like the 2004 class where you had the typical questions of can his play translate to the NFL.
With Darnold its turnovers...will that continue? Maybe its correctable. Ok maybe you can fix it if you can pinpoint what his problem is. Is it just the way he grips the ball and is it coachable? Very possible which is why Darnold is the cleanest of the bunch.
Here is where the red flags show up on the others. Rosen, great physical tools, smart but he has durability and more importantly concussion issues. We live in an NFL with a concussion protocol where he could miss games if this is a continuing problem. There is no medical professional out there that can guarantee the Giants that he won't have a problem. None. No helmet you can wear that can stop them. Its a very individual type of injury and without knowing the future its impossible to predict. The only thing we do know is that studies have shown when you've had 2 or more, especially in a short amount of time, you are at a higher risk of having another, and another.
Allen's red flag is his inaccuracy. Something that everyone has said usually isn't a thing you can coach up. So it doesn't matter that his arm is awesome or hes big and can move. If he can't hit the open guy he's useless. Then theres Baker who has personality issues, etc.
Thats why there is HUUUUUUUUUUUUGE risk taking these QB's outside of Darnold. It isn't your typical, can I coach up his weaknesses in the NFL. They are red flags that you can't coach up and you can't predict.
DG would be risking his job, reputation and the franchise for the next 5 years one one of these high risk QBs. Which is why, IMO, the right choice is Barkley, Chubb, or trade down not out of the top 10.
It's why you don't take a QB unless you are absolutely convinced about them this high. It may be less risky to have a second development guy (in addition to Webb) in the system and see whether any of them rise.
Yes, you had better be right if you pull the trigger on one of these QBs. But you better be right if you pass on them too. These guys are going to be crucified if they miss out on a really good QB and have to watch a guy throwing TDs and winning games in green. No one is going to want to hear about the red flags at that point -that's their job to figure it out.
So they better get it right either way --let's not make any mistake about that.
You will eventually be forced to draft and fool yourself into thinking you are convinced
Why is this argument not applying to the Browns or Jets or Denver or Bills?
Why dont they need to be convinced?
Because they need a QB. Thats why
No one is asking- what if Rosen & Darnold are gone? Are the Jets convinced on Mayfield or Allen? Everyone knows their taking whoever is the best of whats left.
This convinced nonsense also forces you to choose 1 of what may be 4 good options. All of these guys can be good. 3 of them may be. 2004 all were good. 1984 had 3 HoF QBs.
Its silly.
But geez, those Lombardi trophies looked really good, didn't they?
Also, yeah picking the wrong QB will set you back, but not even taking a shot at one when a golden opportunity presents itself is even worse. If they pass here, when will this team really have a shot at another one? And when will they really be able to compete? Look at the QBs around the NFC, all fairly young and all studs. It’s loaded now and for the foreseeable future.
I'm really skeptical of that.
Yes, you had better be right if you pull the trigger on one of these QBs. But you better be right if you pass on them too. These guys are going to be crucified if they miss out on a really good QB and have to watch a guy throwing TDs and winning games in green. No one is going to want to hear about the red flags at that point -that's their job to figure it out.
So they better get it right either way --let's not make any mistake about that.
The only questions in deciding to take a QB at #2 are:
1.) Is one or more of these QBs better than what you have in Davis Webb (Eli is gone shortly). Most important question.
2.) Is one or more of these QB likely to be more impactful than Barkley, Chubb or Nelson.
That is all. everything else is bullshit.
If the Giants feel that none of these QBs will be significantly better than Webb, than move on to Barkley or Chubb or trade. (and they have more info on Webb than they do on any of the draftees)
If none of the QBs will be more impactful than Barkley, Chubb or Nelson, take one of these three or trade down.
We, the press or experts haven't a clue as to what DG and Shurmur want in a QB. If Shurmur can turn Keenum into a playoff QB, it is likely he can turn other fairly talented QBs, also (Keenum was a pretty talented college QB). Look (begrudgingly, yuck) at what Pedersen did with Foles (another fairly talented QB).
If you put enough talent around a B/B+ QB, you can win in the playoffs. It may be easier to find and put that talent around the B+ QB, than find an A/A+ QB like an Elway, Rodgers, Brady, Aikman or Manning(s).
Quote:
It’s QB. It has to be QB especially in this draft. If it was a draft where it was one clear-cut QB locked into #1 and a huge drop off after that, I might feel differently but there’s 4 guys here you can easily make arguments for becoming franchise QBs. Teams willing to mortgage their future to take a shot at even one of them. The Giants have a 37 yo QB, who lets be honest, has been average at best recently and whose contract will come into play after this season.
Also, yeah picking the wrong QB will set you back, but not even taking a shot at one when a golden opportunity presents itself is even worse. If they pass here, when will this team really have a shot at another one? And when will they really be able to compete? Look at the QBs around the NFC, all fairly young and all studs. It’s loaded now and for the foreseeable future.
SO, you're saying that these 4 guys are equivalent and that over the next 2-3 years there won't be a single QB, by draft or FA, that is as good as any of them?
I'm really skeptical of that.
As of now, no, the next group of QBs are not as good as this year. FA QB? Really? $30 mill for Cousins - that is all you will get in FA and where is that money coming from? Plus, they would need to be 2-14 to get a shot at the draft QBs and what are those chances?
Quote:
It’s QB. It has to be QB especially in this draft. If it was a draft where it was one clear-cut QB locked into #1 and a huge drop off after that, I might feel differently but there’s 4 guys here you can easily make arguments for becoming franchise QBs. Teams willing to mortgage their future to take a shot at even one of them. The Giants have a 37 yo QB, who lets be honest, has been average at best recently and whose contract will come into play after this season.
Also, yeah picking the wrong QB will set you back, but not even taking a shot at one when a golden opportunity presents itself is even worse. If they pass here, when will this team really have a shot at another one? And when will they really be able to compete? Look at the QBs around the NFC, all fairly young and all studs. It’s loaded now and for the foreseeable future.
SO, you're saying that these 4 guys are equivalent and that over the next 2-3 years there won't be a single QB, by draft or FA, that is as good as any of them?
I'm really skeptical of that.
FA QBs are expensive, even the mediocre ones, so it's not really apples to apples. Building your team around a young, successful (and cheap) QB on his rookie contract is such an advantage in roster construction that it can't be dismissed - I don't think it's fair to lump in the possibility of bringing in a FA QB over the next couple of years. And in most years, it's typically a lot of Glennons, Fitzpatricks and McCowns out there.
As for the upcoming drafts, I think it's definitely conceivable that a) there may not be any prospects as good as the top prospects in this draft, and/or that b) the cost in draft capital to trade up for a top QB prospect is prohibitive relative to staying put and taking one at #2. This is not to say take a QB for the sake of taking a QB; rather, if you don't think DG and PS will have a conviction on a QB in this class, it's hard to imagine that they'll have a conviction on the QBs in the next couple of classes and simultaneously be in a position to draft him, barring another disastrous season like we just endured.
It's entirely possible that there will be a QB prospect in 2019 or 2020 that is every bit as good as the QBs in this year's draft, but the chances that there will be 3-4 of them? That's where the odds fall off, IMO. Which means that if there's only 1-2, the price to trade up is even greater, and could potentially be blocked by teams that also have a pressing need at the QB position.
I understand where you're coming from, in a vacuum. But the QB position is so vital to a team's success, the opportunity to have a smooth succession plan in place is so rare, that when circumstances align to potentially give you the chance to acquire that QB without having to also sacrifice additional current/future draft capital, it has to merit extremely strong consideration.
Said another way - if you don't think Sam Darnold or Josh Rosen are worth 1 first round pick this year, what makes you think Drew Lock or Ryan Finley (or whoever) will be worth 2+ first round picks (factoring for the cost to trade up) next year?
Mdgiantsfan : 4/10/2018 11:28 pm : link : reply
So if you draft Chubb, Nelson, insert any other non-QB at #2, and they are a bust you feel better about the decision? They're all a risk to some degree. So this whole "he's got be a HoFer or you don't take him" talk is annoying
Look at what Accorsi said - you are definitely going to play the QB, and likely do it for a few years before wondering if he's a bust, a slow learner, or an eventual solid starter if he doesn't start out in year 1 with what looks to be that special something.
Miss on a DE, RB or other position, and you'll have a guy who will impact the tram, but on fewer plays and less directly and you can move along after a couple of years without much pain.
Continually miss on a QB and you end up like the Browns. and speaking of the Browns, they've gotten to the point where they don't even seem to give the QB time to develop. Deshon Kizer? McCown? Hoyer? Weeden? Manziel?
Quote:
In comment 13908835 Toastt34 said:
Quote:
It’s QB. It has to be QB especially in this draft. If it was a draft where it was one clear-cut QB locked into #1 and a huge drop off after that, I might feel differently but there’s 4 guys here you can easily make arguments for becoming franchise QBs. Teams willing to mortgage their future to take a shot at even one of them. The Giants have a 37 yo QB, who lets be honest, has been average at best recently and whose contract will come into play after this season.
Also, yeah picking the wrong QB will set you back, but not even taking a shot at one when a golden opportunity presents itself is even worse. If they pass here, when will this team really have a shot at another one? And when will they really be able to compete? Look at the QBs around the NFC, all fairly young and all studs. It’s loaded now and for the foreseeable future.
SO, you're saying that these 4 guys are equivalent and that over the next 2-3 years there won't be a single QB, by draft or FA, that is as good as any of them?
I'm really skeptical of that.
FA QBs are expensive, even the mediocre ones, so it's not really apples to apples. Building your team around a young, successful (and cheap) QB on his rookie contract is such an advantage in roster construction that it can't be dismissed - I don't think it's fair to lump in the possibility of bringing in a FA QB over the next couple of years. And in most years, it's typically a lot of Glennons, Fitzpatricks and McCowns out there.
As for the upcoming drafts, I think it's definitely conceivable that a) there may not be any prospects as good as the top prospects in this draft, and/or that b) the cost in draft capital to trade up for a top QB prospect is prohibitive relative to staying put and taking one at #2. This is not to say take a QB for the sake of taking a QB; rather, if you don't think DG and PS will have a conviction on a QB in this class, it's hard to imagine that they'll have a conviction on the QBs in the next couple of classes and simultaneously be in a position to draft him, barring another disastrous season like we just endured.
It's entirely possible that there will be a QB prospect in 2019 or 2020 that is every bit as good as the QBs in this year's draft, but the chances that there will be 3-4 of them? That's where the odds fall off, IMO. Which means that if there's only 1-2, the price to trade up is even greater, and could potentially be blocked by teams that also have a pressing need at the QB position.
I understand where you're coming from, in a vacuum. But the QB position is so vital to a team's success, the opportunity to have a smooth succession plan in place is so rare, that when circumstances align to potentially give you the chance to acquire that QB without having to also sacrifice additional current/future draft capital, it has to merit extremely strong consideration.
Said another way - if you don't think Sam Darnold or Josh Rosen are worth 1 first round pick this year, what makes you think Drew Lock or Ryan Finley (or whoever) will be worth 2+ first round picks (factoring for the cost to trade up) next year?
Outstanding point. I've been saying this for a while now. What if there aren't any teams that are willing to trade with the Giants next year? Or what if the Giants are forced into a position that necessitates the team investing multiple first round picks in a qb who wouldn't have even been in consideration for that slot this year (Lock, Finley, Thornson)? Now you've essentially over invested and are further tied to that qb.
They will turn on him if he drafts a QB who ends up busting while running Eli out of town in the process. Even moreso if Eli has success with another team.
It’s a tough spot for DG but it’s easier to justify your scenario than mine. People will get fired in my scenario.
I get that it's a joke, but I am not sure people appreciate how hard it is to win even one SB (the fact that someone does it every year notwithstanding). Nor am I sure that they value it all that much.
WHAT ARE YOU SAYING!??!? ELI IS THE BEST QB EVER!!!!
His overall track record in the draft was mixed at best. The 1998-2002 drafts were awful.
Quote:
Ernie and his toupee aren't wearing gold jackets. His scouting report Eli reads like a work of prophecy that would make Nostradamus stand up and say "dayummm how dafuq!?!"
His overall track record in the draft was mixed at best. The 1998-2002 drafts were awful.
Agree. Pre-Eli draft, Ernie was more miss than hit.
Quote:
In comment 13909070 Coach Red Beaulieu said:
Quote:
Ernie and his toupee aren't wearing gold jackets. His scouting report Eli reads like a work of prophecy that would make Nostradamus stand up and say "dayummm how dafuq!?!"
His overall track record in the draft was mixed at best. The 1998-2002 drafts were awful.
Agree. Pre-Eli draft, Ernie was more miss than hit.
He bought us to the the SB with a racist drunken hick QB. Greatest FA signing of all time!
Quote:
But at the end of the day DG is going to own his decision. If they pass up on a franchise QB or two for a good DE or very good OG but struggle to find an answer at QB, the NY press who are all on board now are going to turn on him like dogs watching they guy they should have taken winning games in green.
They will turn on him if he drafts a QB who ends up busting while running Eli out of town in the process. Even moreso if Eli has success with another team.
It’s a tough spot for DG but it’s easier to justify your scenario than mine. People will get fired in my scenario.
That makes one of us. But I suppose it really does underscore the fundamental difference in our respective points of view.
I'd rather have a 25 year old Carson Wentz with a $7MM cap hit than a 38 year old Josh McCown with a $10MM cap hit (and on year-to-year deals at this point). You're paying McCown more for what is likely to be an inferior performance and will need to replace him within the next year or two anyway. The benefit of McCown over Wentz is what, exactly? Being able to use your #2 overall pick on a RB in a RB-rich draft (and I happen to really like Barkley)?
Sooner or later you end up having to pay the piper to get yourself a long-term solution at QB. How many teams have had sustained success using fungible JAG QBs?
The overwhelming evidence points to needing a very strong, established QB, and in the absence of that, a unit that is absolutely world class to win a SB.
Using McCown as an example that would be a wise move not only ignores history, it seemingly ignores logic too.
The overwhelming evidence points to needing a very strong, established QB, and in the absence of that, a unit that is absolutely world class to win a SB.
Using McCown as an example that would be a wise move not only ignores history, it seemingly ignores logic too.
I agree. You aren't winning anything with McCown at qb. The tried and true way to consistently stay in contention throughout the history of this league is with a franchise qb. The Trent Dilfer led Ravens and Brad Johnson led Bucaneers were never really in contention again, despite the efforts of a historically great defense. The mediocre qbs just couldn't catch lightening in a bottle again.
I'm surprised so many posters on this site are so quick to dismiss the impact of a truly franchise qb and having the opportunity to draft a blue chip talent at the position. This league always has been and always will be a qb led league.
The second part is that there is an assumption that just by picking a QB here we automatically have the franchise guy. I don't see it. And, it certainly isn't where the talent value is.
Quote:
In comment 13908851 UberAlias said:
Quote:
But at the end of the day DG is going to own his decision. If they pass up on a franchise QB or two for a good DE or very good OG but struggle to find an answer at QB, the NY press who are all on board now are going to turn on him like dogs watching they guy they should have taken winning games in green.
They will turn on him if he drafts a QB who ends up busting while running Eli out of town in the process. Even moreso if Eli has success with another team.
It’s a tough spot for DG but it’s easier to justify your scenario than mine. People will get fired in my scenario.
Perhaps, but you don't make decisions on opportunities such as this with a mindset of "what we can justify". You do what is right. This is a great opportunity here and the goal is to win superbowls, not just to justify your position or keep things respectable.
Both the GM and HC were fired the last time they were in their respective positions. They’re going to try to win now if they believe the framework is in place to win.
It doesn’t do them any good to draft a QB for the next GM/HC.