I went on the HOF website and looked at HOF players drafted from 1970-present (so if I missed a player I blame the HOF site). I chose 1970 because it was close to the year I was born.
I put all that information in a spread sheet so I could sort what rounds HOFers got drafted more easily. There has been 104 HOF players from 1970-2018. 62 of the 104 (60%) have been drafted in the first round. 29 of the 62 (47%) were drafted between 1-5 (including 2 from a supplemental draft), 13 of the 62 (21%) were drafted between 6-10, 11 of the 62 (18%) were drafted between 11-20, and 9 of the 62 (15%) were drafted between 21-32.
16 of 104 (15%) in round 2
10 of the 104 (10%) in round 3
7 of 104 (7%) in round 4
2 of 104 (2%) in round 5
1 of the 104 (1%) in round 6
1 of the 104 (1%) in round 7
1 of the 104 (1%) in round 8
4 of the 104 (4%) was a UDFA
Looking at this data I am still ok with trading down but not out of the top 5. Statistically it does not make sense if you are looking for a HOF player.
By the way, 1-5 picks x 49 years = 245 picks. That’s a 12% chance of drafting a HOF player in the top 5. Not bad considering.
5 of the HOFers were picked at the #2 spot overall; 3 RB’s (Dorsett, Dickerson, Faulk), 1 LB (LT) and 1 DL/LB (Randy White)
I found this information interesting and thought BBI would also.
six in round 1. Four drafted #1 overall ((Bradshaw, Elway, Aikman) one was a supplemental, Young). The other 2 are Kelly and Marino.
One in round 2 (Favre)
Two in round 3 (Fouts, Montana)
Two UDFA's (Moon, Warner)
It still is a crapshoot, but as with everything - people sensationalize and take it out of context.
agree. and thanks for the research boatie. very interesting
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I would have expected it to look more like a crap shoot than it does.
It still is a crapshoot, but as with everything - people sensationalize and take it out of context.
Yeah I get that...I was just thinking about so many of the NFL greats getting drafted in lower rounds, I didn't expect the "signal" (i.e. enrichment of top picks into the HOF) to be strong. It's interesting
True, The most recent Draft class to have a HOF player is 2001 (LaDainian Tomlinson)
Just going off of what Gettleman said about drafting this high.
Peyton - 1998 (#1)
Charles Woodson - 1998 (#4)
Champ Bailey - 1999 (#7)
Steve Hutchinson - 2001 (#17)
Brees* - 2001 (#32)
Peppers - 2002 (#2)
Ed Reed - 2002 (#24)
Andre Johnson - 2003 (#3)
Polamalu - 2003 (#16)
*1st pick of round 2
Stopping at 2004 to avoid Eli/Rivers/Ben HOF debate, but I think at least 2 of them make it (Eli/Ben) plus Fitzgerald is a lock.
Why don’t you just look at the draft year of the youngest HOFer?
Why don’t you just look at the draft year of the youngest HOFer?
I think that is Tomlinson (2001) and even that would miss Peyton, Woodson, Bailey, Hutchinson, and Brees.
But going with that, 1-5 picks x 31 years = 155 picks
29/155 = 19% (~1 in 5 chance of drafting a HOF)
Including Peyton/Woodson would make it an even 20%.
Nope, you get one a year. Makes no sense including recent drafts when then players are still active, let alone guys that are retired but not yet eligible.
2002: Peppers
2003: Andre Johnson
2004: Fitzgerald + likely Eli and Rivers
But this is all probabilities, not bodies. Lets not get TOO stuck in the numbers game.
I reached the very opposite conclusion.
The chances of drafting a HOF player are very much higher in the first round, and even more, among the top selections in the first round.
[quote] In comment 13909762 the mike said:
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Just shows that the odds of selecting a HOF player are remote irrespective of draft position...
I reached the very opposite conclusion.
My comment was in reaction to the frequency of a HOFer being drafted among the population of top ten picks, not the percentage of HOFers who were drafted in the top ten...
Let me clarify - there have only been 42 HOFers in top ten in 48 drafts, or 42 of 480 selections - that is less one in ten...
[quote] In comment 13909762 the mike said:
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Just shows that the odds of selecting a HOF player are remote irrespective of draft position...
I reached the very opposite conclusion.
My comment was in reaction to the frequency of a HOFer being drafted among the population of top ten picks, not the percentage of HOFers who were drafted in the top ten...
Let me clarify - there have only been 42 HOFers in top ten in 48 drafts, or 42 of 480 selections - that is less one in ten...
Yes, it is clear that one stands a slim chance of drafting someone who will end up in the HOF. It is a crap shoot in that regard.
But if the OPs numbers are correct, then draft position is absolutely huge in determining the outcome. According to the numbers posted above, if you move from a top 5 pick to a top 10 pick, your odds of getting a HOFer are cut in half. 60% of HOFers were drafted in the first round, and among those first rounders, roughly half were drafted in the top 5. I find that pretty remarkable.
Giants traded that pick, #2 overall to Dallas for Craig Morton.
A reminder of the criticality of not fucking up a #2 overall.