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QBASE: Run to the podium for Mayfield

DanMetroMan : 4/12/2018 10:13 am
Top QBASE Projections, 1997-2017
Player
QBASE
Philip Rivers 1964
Carson Palmer 1916
Donovan McNabb 1799
Baker Mayfield 1480
Russell Wilson 1288
Peyton Manning 1279
Marcus Mariota 1277
Byron Leftwich 1216
Aaron Rodgers 1216
Ben Roethlisberger 1211


"Baker Mayfield's stats at Oklahoma were completely ridiculous, so it's no surprise that a stat-based projection system such as QBASE loves him with the heat of a thousand suns.

One of the stats included in QBASE is adjusted passing yards per attempt. This metric looks at yards per attempt, then adds 20 yards for each touchdown and subtracts 45 yards for each interception. Baker Mayfield is the only quarterback in FBS history to top 12.0 APYA in a season, and he's done it twice: 12.3 APYA in 2016, and then a record 12.9 APYA in 2017. Mayfield also completed more than 70 percent of his passes as a senior, and Oklahoma's offense was No. 1 in Football Outsiders' Passing S& P+ rating.

On top of this, the No. 1 predictor of NFL success for top quarterback draft picks is still how many years of starting experience they had in college. Mayfield is the only one of this year's top prospects with four years of starting experience. (Luke Falk, likely to be drafted later, started for three-and-a-half seasons.)

Like Rosen, QBASE docks Mayfield a bit because he played with high-quality teammates. Both offensive tackle Orlando Brown and tight end Mark Andrews are likely to be drafted in the first three rounds this year, and wide receiver Marquise Brown and guard Ben Powers are likely to go in the first three rounds of the 2019 draft. However, Mayfield does not get docked for playing an easy Big 12 schedule. Because of the Big 12 championship game, the Sooners had to play twice against TCU, which at No. 15 in S& P+ was the Big 12's best pass defense. Mayfield also had to face Ohio State (No. 12) and Georgia (No. 6), so the average pass defense he faced was ranked 52.8, the same as Rosen and better than any of this year's prospects other than Darnold.

Put all these elements together, and Mayfield has the fourth-highest QBASE projection of any prospect since 1997. The only players projected higher were Philip Rivers, Carson Palmer, and Donovan McNabb. Here are the top 10 prospects since 1997 based on the current formula:"



Mean Projection in Years 3-5: 1,480 DYAR
Bust (& lt; 500 DYAR) 29.3%
Adequate Starter (500-1499 DYAR) 21.8%
Upper Tier (1500-2500 DYAR) 20.7%
Elite (& gt;2500 DYAR) 28.2%
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what were  
George from PA : 4/12/2018 10:24 am : link
Ryan Leaf
Tim Tebow
Johnny Football?
It's a pretty impressive  
Metnut : 4/12/2018 10:31 am : link
list. Only real bust on it is Leftwich.
Holy $hit  
giants#1 : 4/12/2018 10:37 am : link
They do not like Allen.

Quote:
Like Darnold, Josh Allen was only a two-year starter in college. But Allen's statistics are horrifying compared to Darnold's.

Allen has an obscenely powerful arm, but it's a howitzer without a targeting system. He completed just 56.3 percent of his passes last year. Here is the list of quarterbacks chosen in the top 100 picks since 2005 despite having a completion rate below 58 percent in their final college season: Andrew Walter (2005), Jake Locker (2011), Christian Hackenberg (2016), Connor Cook (2016), and C. J. Beathard (2017). That's it.
My hope is that the Jets take Mayfield.  
Tom in NY : 4/12/2018 10:46 am : link
It's going to be fun watching them pick the next QB bust in their franchise history.
RE: My hope is that the Jets take Mayfield.  
fanofthejets : 4/12/2018 10:58 am : link
In comment 13910881 Tom in NY said:
Quote:
It's going to be fun watching them pick the next QB bust in their franchise history.


He won't bust. He's got a crazy good work ethic, tons of passion, leader, loves football. No way this kid doesn't make it barring injury issues
RE: My hope is that the Jets take Mayfield.  
M.S. : 4/12/2018 11:04 am : link
In comment 13910881 Tom in NY said:
Quote:
It's going to be fun watching them pick the next QB bust in their franchise history.

Tom in NY... I'm no fan of the Jets, but I have a strong sense that Baker Mayfield will end up as a very capable NFL QB.
I think he's head and shoulders above Rosen and Darnold  
Tim in VA : 4/12/2018 11:06 am : link
But his personality warts can't be ignored.
I would be happy  
Rocky369 : 4/12/2018 11:09 am : link
with this selection.
Stark contrast  
lugnut : 4/12/2018 11:10 am : link
Allen with the 56% completion rate last year, Mayfield with (IIRC) 70-71% last two years running. That's a solid, consistent 15% difference.

With Mayfield, though, I'm sensitive to the whole "defense is optional" reputation of his conference, and whether it inflated his numbers. If he hit guys square in the numbers all the time, it's much less an issue. If receivers had to scramble 5-10 yards to get to the ball and could because the defense/coverage sucked, then it's a real issue.

Obviously, I watched very little of OU/Mayfield. I did watch him hang 38 points on I think the #6-ranked defense of #9-ranked TCU, and for God's sake he hung 48 points on the national champ. (Small sample size, I know, but...)

I think I like Mayfield more than most. If we took him at #2, I'd be fine with it. I don't see a bust at all, and I think he'd be a lot of fun to watch.
RE: My hope is that the Jets take Mayfield.  
chuckydee9 : 4/12/2018 11:12 am : link
In comment 13910881 Tom in NY said:
Quote:
It's going to be fun watching them pick the next QB bust in their franchise history.


He won't he has the highest floor of any of these QBs.. which is really all you need.. an above average QB is good enough to win..
.  
jintz4life : 4/12/2018 11:19 am : link
.
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This guy’s a world class  
mittenedman : 4/12/2018 11:25 am : link
A-hole. He’s a goodfootball playereveryone knows that.

But there’s a very good reason he had the college route he did.

One of those guys who says all the right things in front of adults but is just an immature guy behind the scenes. Everyone knows the type.
RE: I think he's head and shoulders above Rosen and Darnold  
Mr. Bungle : 4/12/2018 11:28 am : link
In comment 13910914 Tim in VA said:
Quote:
...

Well, not literally...
RE: Mayfield  
Go Terps : 4/12/2018 11:33 am : link
Mike Lombardi's podcast has been very interesting regarding Mayfield. Basically, Lombardi has been saying that every NFL team is watching Mayfield's performance against Georgia...where Mayfield struggled to make the difficult third down conversion type throws that required timing and throwing into windows.

I think  
Giantophile : 4/12/2018 11:38 am : link
Mayfield will have a good career but I highly doubt the Giants draft him.

Shame, because I think he'd be a great fit for Shurmur,but no way Mara signs off on him as the new face of the franchise.
RE: RE: My hope is that the Jets take Mayfield.  
Tom in NY : 4/12/2018 12:35 pm : link
In comment 13910897 fanofthejets said:
Quote:
In comment 13910881 Tom in NY said:


Quote:


It's going to be fun watching them pick the next QB bust in their franchise history.



He won't bust. He's got a crazy good work ethic, tons of passion, leader, loves football. No way this kid doesn't make it barring injury issues


He has NO outstanding traits as a QB prospect...arm-ok, height -just barely ok, speed - mediocre.
Yeah, I bet he loves the game and works hard. Guess what? MANY 1st round QBs that have failed loved the game and worked hard.
When he gets out of that Oklahoma scheme offense, and playing Big 12 defenses, reality is going to hit hard....he will be, at best, a mediocre/back-up NFL QB.
Chase Daniel is a good comparison.
RE: RE: Mayfield  
Tom in NY : 4/12/2018 12:37 pm : link
In comment 13910984 Go Terps said:
Quote:
Mike Lombardi's podcast has been very interesting regarding Mayfield. Basically, Lombardi has been saying that every NFL team is watching Mayfield's performance against Georgia...where Mayfield struggled to make the difficult third down conversion type throws that required timing and throwing into windows.


**THIS**
RE: RE: Mayfield  
Thegratefulhead : 4/12/2018 1:11 pm : link
In comment 13910984 Go Terps said:
Quote:
Mike Lombardi's podcast has been very interesting regarding Mayfield. Basically, Lombardi has been saying that every NFL team is watching Mayfield's performance against Georgia...where Mayfield struggled to make the difficult third down conversion type throws that required timing and throwing into windows.
If the kicker executes a squib kick they win that game. He scored 48 points against players that will starting in the NFL this year FFS.
RE: RE: RE: My hope is that the Jets take Mayfield.  
mikeinbloomfield : 4/12/2018 1:17 pm : link
In comment 13911193 Tom in NY said:
Quote:
In comment 13910897 fanofthejets said:


Quote:


In comment 13910881 Tom in NY said:


Quote:


It's going to be fun watching them pick the next QB bust in their franchise history.



He won't bust. He's got a crazy good work ethic, tons of passion, leader, loves football. No way this kid doesn't make it barring injury issues



He has NO outstanding traits as a QB prospect...arm-ok, height -just barely ok, speed - mediocre.
Yeah, I bet he loves the game and works hard. Guess what? MANY 1st round QBs that have failed loved the game and worked hard.
When he gets out of that Oklahoma scheme offense, and playing Big 12 defenses, reality is going to hit hard....he will be, at best, a mediocre/back-up NFL QB.
Chase Daniel is a good comparison.


Well, he also put stats up against top competition that rival other outstanding QBs coming out of college. Which is all this is saying. Argue with the methodology of this if you want, but all the things you said could be true but he still put up the stats.

I'd love them to pick Mayfield, I think he's going to be outstanding.
I had a similar post a few weeks ago.  
732NYG : 4/12/2018 1:35 pm : link
Other advanced metrics besides QBASE also love Mayfield as the best QB in this class. I would love him in blue, but I don’t think the Giants would draft him.
Thegratefulhead  
lugnut : 4/12/2018 2:01 pm : link
got it exactly right. Being scrutinized, downgraded, (torpedoed), and final-judgmented based on very small slices of a game in which you scored 48 points against NFL-caliber players that included the likes of Roquan Smith is pretty fucking absurd.
Giants take Mayfield ...  
Bluesbreaker : 4/12/2018 4:47 pm : link
I will throw the remote through the TV and the wall behind it ! I am not saying that he is gonna be a bust but the
potential for one is not worth the risk .
Everyone is a critic  
X : 4/12/2018 4:57 pm : link
and you either love or hate Mayfield. No one knows if he will succeed or not in the NFL but I wouldn't bet against him
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