I still haven't seen anything to show he's a faster and better overall WR. Not even his stats on a far better team with the best QB in the history of the game can make the argument.
In 2016, arguably Edelmans best season, he had 30 more targets than Landry and still had less TD's, yards, and YPC and only 4 more catches. So what exactly is this massive difference between the two players?
Will get the money the Browns just guaranteed that up to 46 mil, however he will never again see 160+ targets with the Browns. The problem with the Phins offense was 88% of the passing game was funneled thru Landry. Sure they got first downs but they could not get into the end zone sounds familiar where have we heard that before. He is not the type of player who will enjoy not being the primary guy on offense.
Ask Deion Branch, David Givens, Brandon LaFell, Brandon Lloyd, Reche Caldwell, etc how they fared when they left Brady and went to another team. (Even Welker fell off with Manning, but that may have been a combination of Manning falling off and too many shots to the head for Welker)
Not sure how to quantity it by the Brady Production Factor has to be 20%+ per player...
You found the one player who's numbers were marginally worse with Brady. You do realize that Cooks played with another HOF QB in NO and in a dome for 9+ games vs the outdoor NE weather, right? And before you come up with some bullshit to dismiss the dome factor, in 2016 Cooks averaged 18.9 y/r at home and only 12.1 y/r on the road.
I'm sure Edelman would produce comparably if he were to play with Brees or with Rodgers. I'm guessing those claiming he'd see a hit to his numbers are referring to a hypothetical situation in which Edelman played with one of the 75% of NFL starters that aren't future first ballot HOFs.
Is your point, the catches would drop 20% or at all if he got the targets with another team?
I didn't make any claims about what his numbers would be elsewhere. YOU implied that Landry only reached the yardage/TD totals because of volume and that Edelman would see similar volume elsewhere and would thus put up comparable #s (ignoring that his rate stats with a superior QB/team are comparable or worse). I then corrected the record and pointed out that we don't need to "guess" what Edelman would do with huge volume (160 tgts) since he's already seen that volume twice with Brady and the Pats.
Nice try. LaFell had two years in New England. His first year was a career best. In his second season, he got hurt and only played 11 games, and much more of part time role. So aggregating the numbers in two seasons over two seasons is misleading.
The Thrill is a big believer that athleticism matters in athletics. Sparq database and mockdraftable are tremendous resources.
Jarvis Landry is a bad athletic tester.
However, those tests became meaningless once he proved to be a useful NFL player. He's an outlier. There have been a few other "bad" athletes to succeed at skill positions. They too are outliers; football savants, spatial geniuses.
Since he's been in the league, his teams has asked him to run short routes and create after the catch. He has been exceptional in that role. Look how he stacks up vs Larry Fitzgerald
Now, are exclusive slot players worth $15M/season? Thrill says no -- it's not only a replenishable position, but also an opportunity for creative coaches to find mismatches for top-tier WR talent. Thrill posits that all recent per-play efficiency data indicates...
- passing (always) > running (the very worst passing O's are more effective than the best rushing O's)
- throw to RBs on early downs (it's stealing)
- aggressively deploy best WR/TE in slot (better matchups/more space/easier completions)
...thus, although Jarvis Landry is a very good player and among the best at what he does, the Browns might have been better off spending a fraction of that $75M on a stable slot player and saving slot targets for Josh Gordon, David Njoku, and Duke Johnson ...and perhaps even Saquon.
Recap: Agree Landry is overpaid; Disagree that he's not a useful player bc his flunked athletic tests and has a low ypc
Michael Lombardi
Michael Lombardi
@mlombardiNFL
·
4h
I cannot wait to see the real numbers of the Landry contract--that's a huge deal for a player that has only 24 +25 yard plays in his NFL career. Paying for the volume of catches over yards is staggering
In 2016, arguably Edelmans best season, he had 30 more targets than Landry and still had less TD's, yards, and YPC and only 4 more catches. So what exactly is this massive difference between the two players?
Not sure how to quantity it by the Brady Production Factor has to be 20%+ per player...
Playing with him does not mean your catches/yards/TDs jumps 20% or at all.
Cooks had better numbers with the Saints.
If Edleman went to MIA in Landry's role (or anywhere he was the main focus with 160 targets) you think he would see a 20% drop?
Quit while you're behind.
Its a lock his numbers would drop if those targets came with another team?
Thats BS.
Cooks had 117 targets his last year in NO.
114 in NE.
He had better numbers in NO.
Is your point, the catches would drop 20% or at all if he got the targets with another team?
I'm sure Edelman would produce comparably if he were to play with Brees or with Rodgers. I'm guessing those claiming he'd see a hit to his numbers are referring to a hypothetical situation in which Edelman played with one of the 75% of NFL starters that aren't future first ballot HOFs.
Is your point, the catches would drop 20% or at all if he got the targets with another team?
I didn't make any claims about what his numbers would be elsewhere. YOU implied that Landry only reached the yardage/TD totals because of volume and that Edelman would see similar volume elsewhere and would thus put up comparable #s (ignoring that his rate stats with a superior QB/team are comparable or worse). I then corrected the record and pointed out that we don't need to "guess" what Edelman would do with huge volume (160 tgts) since he's already seen that volume twice with Brady and the Pats.
No, he was going to get more than 15 mil per anyways.
2 seasons in NE, then 2 years of ball in 16 and 17 after leaving NE. Played with those HOF QBs in CIN.
NE: 193 targets - 111 catches - 1468 Yards - 7 TDs
CIN: 196 targets - 116 catches - 1410 Yards - 9 TDs
No drop. Same production with Dalton and Brady.
2 seasons in NE, then 2 years of ball in 16 and 17 after leaving NE. Played with those HOF QBs in CIN.
NE: 193 targets - 111 catches - 1468 Yards - 7 TDs
CIN: 196 targets - 116 catches - 1410 Yards - 9 TDs
No drop. Same production with Dalton and Brady.
Nice try. LaFell had two years in New England. His first year was a career best. In his second season, he got hurt and only played 11 games, and much more of part time role. So aggregating the numbers in two seasons over two seasons is misleading.
How about Brandon Lloyd?
2 seasons before NE were better than the 1 year in NE.
119 targets 74 catches 953 yards 12.9 YPC 7 TDs
Last year in CIN:
107 targets 64 catches 862 yards 13.5 YPC 6 TDs
That looks like the same player to me.
Does that help?
The Thrill is a big believer that athleticism matters in athletics. Sparq database and mockdraftable are tremendous resources.
Jarvis Landry is a bad athletic tester.
However, those tests became meaningless once he proved to be a useful NFL player. He's an outlier. There have been a few other "bad" athletes to succeed at skill positions. They too are outliers; football savants, spatial geniuses.
Since he's been in the league, his teams has asked him to run short routes and create after the catch. He has been exceptional in that role. Look how he stacks up vs Larry Fitzgerald
https://twitter.com/MikeClayNFL/status/984460835555807232
Now, are exclusive slot players worth $15M/season? Thrill says no -- it's not only a replenishable position, but also an opportunity for creative coaches to find mismatches for top-tier WR talent. Thrill posits that all recent per-play efficiency data indicates...
- passing (always) > running (the very worst passing O's are more effective than the best rushing O's)
- throw to RBs on early downs (it's stealing)
- aggressively deploy best WR/TE in slot (better matchups/more space/easier completions)
...thus, although Jarvis Landry is a very good player and among the best at what he does, the Browns might have been better off spending a fraction of that $75M on a stable slot player and saving slot targets for Josh Gordon, David Njoku, and Duke Johnson ...and perhaps even Saquon.
Recap: Agree Landry is overpaid; Disagree that he's not a useful player bc his flunked athletic tests and has a low ypc
Quote:
Is the price tag for OBJ's contract just went up.
No, he was going to get more than 15 mil per anyways.
Obviously. And, if a good Landry is worth 15 per year, is an outstanding OBJ worth 20? 21?
Michael Lombardi
@mlombardiNFL
·
4h
I cannot wait to see the real numbers of the Landry contract--that's a huge deal for a player that has only 24 +25 yard plays in his NFL career. Paying for the volume of catches over yards is staggering