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Argument against Bills Trade- Devalued late 1st Rders

twostepgiants : 4/13/2018 9:03 am
In Albert Breers SI article this nugget was kinda buried

"Late first-round picks lack value. The other day I was spitballing on a potential Bills-Giants swap with a team exec, who said to me, “The problem is that the 22nd pick might as well be in the third round.” He was exaggerating, but only a little bit. The consensus I’ve heard is the difference between 22 and 52 is minimal this year, which is part of why the Colts did well to land a couple high second-rounders in their trade with the Jets."

This is essentially saying that the Bills 22nd pick is at point where there is a drop off in talent and then a plateau making those picks about equal. This would make the Bills second 1st rd pick more like a second rounder.

I havent read this line of thinking discussed on here in regards to a Bills trade down.

This really kind of devalues what the Bills have to offer in a trade down.
This seems like a draft year that's got some talent at the top  
Ten Ton Hammer : 4/13/2018 9:07 am : link
and some interesting stuff in the back end. I don't think it's a star-studded second and third round. Deep class at RB, CB, and interior OL, and some curious late round WRs. But to me, not much more.
Well  
mdthedream : 4/13/2018 9:08 am : link
the Giants are not trading down with the Bills without next years 1st.
Kind of BS  
ZogZerg : 4/13/2018 9:11 am : link
There are a handful of blue chippers and the Bills #12 takes you out of range. That arguement makes sense. I don't see any clear cut drop off at 22.

List the clear cut 21 first picks?
A bit but you can look it the other way  
bigbluescot : 4/13/2018 9:13 am : link
that if there's a deep plateau in good starting quality talent then acquiring a large number of 2nd and 3rd round picks could be beneficial.

My main issue is if we're not taking a QB is that the positional value isn't there for a RB or G, you'd be relying on Barkley and Chubb being absolutely transformational players at their positions. And while I like Chubb, I can't help but think if Mack, Garrett and Bosa were in this draft he'd comfortably be the 4th best of them.
Counterpoints  
SLIM_ : 4/13/2018 9:14 am : link
-First rounders could be cost controlled for an extra year. Landon Collins was drafted at the top end of the second. Based on his play, if the Giants moved up to end of first, we would be much better off negotiating wise.

- You are getting the 22nd best player in the draft at worst. (depending on people's value board).

- We will be getting Bills 1st round pick next year or no deal. Say Darnold goes first and The Bills give up 2 1's, a 2 and a 3 this year to get a guy who needs a lot of development (Allen). It is very possible that we will have a top ten pick next year.

The draft is a crapshoot. Getting more (quality) shots on goal increases the odds.
that's always been the case  
UConn4523 : 4/13/2018 9:16 am : link
with trading out of the top few picks. You just had a shit season and want to land a star player, not a riskier player 20 spots down that doesn't have anywhere near the upside.

If you want to move that far up for the QB of your future you should expect to have to pay a massive amount.
Slim  
UConn4523 : 4/13/2018 9:19 am : link
I don't think its as simple as getting more shots increases the odds. The bust rate increases the further down you go. Im guessing the ability to land a star player decreases even more rapidly the further down you go.

Filling bunch of holes would be nice, but its unrealistic to think that it will happen with more picks. Star players win games in this league - solid drafting and great coaching fill holes.
Two things that are always true  
LakeGeorgeGiant : 4/13/2018 9:27 am : link
1. Fans dont want a QB...pretty much ever.

2. Fans love stockpiling picks.

Both are asinine. Get a blue chip player when you have the opportunity.

Fans think more picks will fill more holes. Unfortunately the further down the draft you go the smaller the chance of success. 10 picks won't fill 10 holes. In the long run you still fill 3 if you're lucky.

Take the blue chip.

I wouldn't be inclined to trade down, but any trade down from #2 would have to garner a first from next year as a starting point before I would even consider it, and I wouldn't go any lower than Denver.
IMO ...  
Beer Man : 4/13/2018 9:28 am : link
That would be too far for the Giants to drop when there are still Blue Chippers on the board
Fans..  
FatMan in Charlotte : 4/13/2018 9:29 am : link
don't want a QB???

Where do you get that from?

Teams that pick at the top of the draft almost always have an anticipation from their fans that they could take a QB, and often the reasoning is that in the few times you draft high, you better take advantage of the situation.
Stockpiling picks is asinine?  
IIT : 4/13/2018 9:36 am : link
Somebody really should tell Belichick he's doing it all wrong...
I mean it's really amazing  
IIT : 4/13/2018 9:40 am : link
he's managed to hang onto his job so long in spite of it.
You gotta hand it to him though  
IIT : 4/13/2018 9:41 am : link
Even though he adhere's to that asinine approach he still manages to win superbowls.

I guess that settles the talent vs. coaching argument once and for all.
There sure is a lot of analysis about something  
ThatLimerickGuy : 4/13/2018 10:17 am : link
That to me seems pretty simple.

Three first round picks and a second for a drop from 2 to 12. If the Bills want to keep their #22 pick then fine. Let them give up 12, 2019 1st and 2020 1st. If they really believe that the QB at 2 is Aaron Rodgers part 2 then it's a steal for them.
RE: Stockpiling picks is asinine?  
Ten Ton Hammer : 4/13/2018 10:41 am : link
In comment 13912589 IIT said:
Quote:
Somebody really should tell Belichick he's doing it all wrong...


It's certainly not showing up on the rosters he's putting out on the field.
Can't disregard serious haul from Bills if it is there...  
the mike : 4/13/2018 11:25 am : link
I agree that the ideal trade would be with Denver from two to five so we get Barkley, Chubb or Nelson AND #40, #71 and a second/third pick next year. In a sense, we would have certainty around one of the top three BPA's and get three additional top one hundred picks. No brainer.

But I also think a trade with the Bills is intriguing because I don't believe there is a precipitous drop in the first round as the OP is suggesting. If the Giants trade from two to #12 for #22, #53, #65 and a first pick next year, they could likely select either Vita Vea or Darius Guice at #12 and McGlinchy, Wynn or Hernandez at #22. Any of these guys could be considered pro bowl type blue chip players. And then you have two additional top one hundred picks this year AND a likely top ten pick next year since Buffalo will not be a good team in 2018.

I believe though that the moment of maximum value for Gettleman is when the Giants are on the clock so this needs to go to the wire... should be fascinating drama!
I disagree. I think the middle to end of the first round  
Ira : 4/13/2018 11:31 am : link
this season is very strong. If we trade with Buffalo for 12 and 22 plus a few other picks, we can come out of the first round with Isaiah Wynn and Derrius Guice and have a few extra day 2 picks to look forward to.
RE: This seems like a draft year that's got some talent at the top  
Percy : 4/13/2018 11:54 am : link
In comment 13912526 Ten Ton Hammer said:
Quote:
and some interesting stuff in the back end. I don't think it's a star-studded second and third round. Deep class at RB, CB, and interior OL, and some curious late round WRs. But to me, not much more.

"Some talent at the top" -- such as it is.
Just feel we have to  
TMS : 4/13/2018 12:02 pm : link
get an instant starter at some position with our first pick in this draft. We can go down as far as we want as long as we reach that goal on either side of the ball. Does not have to be a potential all pro but a solid starter. We have too many holes and weak players on the team who may have to start now. Think DG gets that done. This was his strong suit in the past and our biggest weakness. especially the OL. MO
RE: You gotta hand it to him though  
Capt. Don : 4/13/2018 12:19 pm : link
In comment 13912597 IIT said:
Quote:
Even though he adhere's to that asinine approach he still manages to win superbowls.

I guess that settles the talent vs. coaching argument once and for all.


BB is not considered the GOAT because of his drafting record. Far from it.
RE: Just feel we have to  
Percy : 4/13/2018 1:35 pm : link
In comment 13912915 TMS said:
Quote:
get an instant starter at some position with our first pick in this draft. We can go down as far as we want as long as we reach that goal on either side of the ball. Does not have to be a potential all pro but a solid starter. We have too many holes and weak players on the team who may have to start now. Think DG gets that done. This was his strong suit in the past and our biggest weakness. especially the OL. MO

Cannot but agree. It's what makes Nelson, Chubb, and Barkley so attractive: they are certain to be starters day one and play virtually every down on offense or defense next year (absent physical catastrophe).
RE: A bit but you can look it the other way  
WillVAB : 4/13/2018 7:06 pm : link
In comment 13912542 bigbluescot said:
Quote:
that if there's a deep plateau in good starting quality talent then acquiring a large number of 2nd and 3rd round picks could be beneficial.

My main issue is if we're not taking a QB is that the positional value isn't there for a RB or G, you'd be relying on Barkley and Chubb being absolutely transformational players at their positions. And while I like Chubb, I can't help but think if Mack, Garrett and Bosa were in this draft he'd comfortably be the 4th best of them.


Agree. I see the meat of this draft as middle round 1 to early round 3. That’s the range where the Giants could get value at deficient areas of the roster. As such, it makes sense to acquire a bunch of picks in that range vs standing pat in the draft order.

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