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5 Variations could reveal range of NYG draft expectations

Big_Blue_in_the_Bronx : 4/13/2018 3:41 pm

Disclaimer:Barring some unforeseen team rising up with an obscene offer or another Gettleman trade which nets more picks, I think these are more or less are the main ranges of variations we could see for our draft. There are 2 stay put options and 3 trade down options. The only other variation that could be drastically different would be some extreme trade down into the latter half of round one or if a team trades us a bunch of players as part of the trade down package.


*Top 3 rounds for focus on the premium picks

STAY PUT SCENARIO #1: TOP GAME-CHANGER IN DRAFT (non-QB) Barkley

ROUND 1 Pick 2
Options: Sequon Barkley, Josh Rosen, Mayfield, Josh Allen , Sam Darnold (assuming he goes #1 to Browns)
Choice: RB Sequon Barkley

Round 2 pick 2
Options: Will Hernandez OG, James Daniels, Billy Price, Ronnie Harrison,Sam Hubbard
Choice: Any of the plug and play OL here at 34


ROUND 3 Pick 2
Options: Quentin Meeks,Shaquem Griffen, Leonard Davis, Kellen Ballage, Lorenzo Carter,Josh Sweat
Choice: Any DB or LB of choice here at pick 66


ROUND 3 Pick 5
Options: Quentin Meeks,Shaquem Griffen, Leonard Davis, Kellen Ballage, Rashaad Penny,Oren Burks,Josh Sweat
Choice: DB or LB of choice here at pick 69. (alternate choice of previous pick)


STAY PUT SCENARIO #2: QB OF CHOICE (except for Browns pick at #1)

ROUND 1 Pick 2
Options: Sequon Barkley, Josh Rosen, Mayfield, Josh Allen , Sam Darnold
Choice: Any of the top QBs except Browns choice at #1

Round 2 pick 2
Options: Will Hernandez OG, James Daniels, Billy Price, Ronnie Harrison
Choice: Any of the plug and play OL here at 34


ROUND 3 Pick 2
Options: Quentin Meeks,Shaquem Griffen, Leonard Davis, Kellen Ballage, Lorenzo Carter
Choice: Any DB or LB of choice here at pick 66

ROUND 3 Pick 5
Options: Quentin Meeks,Shaquem Griffen, Leonard Davis, Kellen Ballage, Rashaad Penny,Oren Burks
Choice: Any DB or LB of choice here at pick 69. (alternate choice of previous pick)



Trade-down Options: These are the 3 teams that have been the most outspoken, rumored and/or reported to be the most interested in trading up. With Both Browns and Jets quite likely to go QB at #1 and #3, getting to the #2 spot assures that team any QB on their board except the one the Browns could pick at #1 . Now should the Browns not go QB at #1, the team that trades to our spot gets the pick of the ENTIRE litter. Bottomline, our pick is/will be extremely coveted.

The possible trade with Denver in this scenario keeps us in blue-chip territory but nets us one less pick. Buffalo at #12 is out of the top 10 and blue-chip country but they have an extra first rounder (22) to make up the difference. Just Top 3 (premium) rounds to keep it simple.



TRADE DOWN SCENARIO #1:TRADE WITH DENVER

GIANTS GIVE PICK #2
GIANTS GET PICKS #5,40,71 (1st round 2019)

ROUND 1 Pick 5
Options: LB Tremaine Edmunds, Quentin Nelson, Barkley (goes to Browns at #4), Minkah Fitzpatrick, Bradley Chubb
Choice: DE/Edge Bradley Chubb (4.65 speed, 270lbs 47 tackles for loss last 2 years, high character,high motor-JPP replacement)


Round 2 pick 2
Options: Will Hernandez OG, James Daniels,Billy Price, Ronnie Harrison, Ronald Jones, Sony Michel, Justin Reid
Choice: Will Hernandez OG (pure hog mollie mauler second only to Nelson in this draft with better feet than he looks)


Round 2 pick 8
Options:Lorenzo Carter,Kyle Lauletta, Frank Ragnow,Ronnie Harrison,Ronald Jones,Sony Michel,
Choice: RB Ronald Jones (multi-purpose back in Shurmur mold- consolation prize to losing out on Barkley)


ROUND 3 Pick 2
Options: Jessie Bates III, Quentin Meeks,Shaquem Griffen, Leonard Davis, Kellen Ballage, Rashaad Penny
Choice: Jessie Bates III S. Giants ecstatic Bates falls this far. FS with true CF skills. Allows LC to play up and attacking line of scrimmage


ROUND 3 Pick 5
Options: Quentin Meeks,Shaquem Griffen, Leonard Davis, Kellen Ballage, Rashaad Penny
Choice: Quentin Meeks- most cerebral CB with decent size, can play press or man and has size. Excellent instincts and anticipation.



ROUND 3 Pick 7
Options: Kyle Lauletta,Quentin Meeks,Shaquem Griffen, Lorenzo Carter, Shaquem Griffin,Oren Burks, Darius Leonard
Choice: QB Kyle Lauletta. Another coach on the field. Senior Bowl MVP. Outside the 1st round Qbs Giants paid most interest to him. Could go much earlier as Washington is rumored to love him and considering him at #44.




TRADE DOWN SCENARIO #2:TRADE WITH BILLS

GIANTS GIVE PICK #2
GIANTS GET PICKS #12,22,53,56 (1st round 2019)

ROUND 1 Pick 12
Options: LB Tremaine Edmunds, Marcus Davenport, Roquan Smith, Jaire Alexander (highest potential shutdown CB in this draft), Derwin James (combo FS/Slot CB with size), McGlinchey
Choice: Derwin James (combo FS/slot CB with good size,fluid hips, and twitch)

ROUND 1 Pick 22
Options: G ISAIAH WYNN, Conor Williams, Jaire Alexander, Courtland Sutton, Leighton Van Der Esch,Rashaan Evans,Harold Landry(16.5 sacks JR year)
Choice: Leighton VanDer Esch- Polished do it all LB (size,instincts, coverage, tackling)to complement of current group

Round 2 pick 2
Options: Will Hernandez OG, James Daniels,Billy Price, Ronnie Harrison, Ronald Jones, Sony Michel
Choice: Ronald Jones (multi-purpose back in Shurmur mold- consolation prize to losing out on Barkley)

Round 2 pick 21
Options:Billy Price,Lorenzo Carter,Kyle Lauletta, Frank Ragnow,Justin Reid
Choice: Billy Price (plug and play at both OC and OG- drops this far due to torn pec)

ROUND 2 Pick 24
Options:Kyle Lauletta,Quentin Meeks,Shaquem Griffen,Lorenzo Carter, Jessie Bates III
Choice: Jessie Bates III S. Giants ecstatic Bates falls this far. FS with true CF skills. Allows LC to play up and attacking line of scrimmage

ROUND 3 Pick 2
Options: Quentin Meeks,Shaquem Griffen, Leonard Davis, Kellen Ballage, Rashaad Penny
Choice: QB Kyle Lauletta. Another coach on the field. Senior Bowl MVP. Outside the 1st round Qbs Giants paid most interest to him. Could go much earlier as Washington is rumored to love him and considering him at #44.

ROUND 3 Pick 5
Options: Quentin Meeks,Shaquem Griffen, Leonard Davis, Kellen Ballage, Rashaad Penny
Choice: Quentin Meeks- most cerebral CB can play press or man and has size. Excellent instincts and anticipation.


TRADE DOWN SCENARIO #3: TRADE WITH JETS

*Based on last years Bears/49ers trade (where Bears moved up from 3 to 2 for a QB)

**Ideal scenario if you like the prospect of landing Barkley AND getting extra picks

GIANTS GIVE PICK #2
GIANTS GET PICKS #3,72,107 (3rd round 2019)

ROUND 1 Pick 3
Options: LB Tremaine Edmunds, Quentin Nelson, Saquon Barkley , Minkah Fitzpatrick, Bradley Chubb, Baker Mayfield, Josh Allen
Choice: RB Saquon Barkley- Home-run threat in 3 phases: run ,pass and special teams. Giants get highest instant impact player in draft to make another run with Eli

Round 2 pick 2
Options: Will Hernandez OG, James Daniels,Billy Price, Ronnie Harrison, Ronald Jones, Sony Michel
Choice: Will Hernandez OG (pure hog mollie mauler second only to Nelson in this draft with better feet than he looks)


Round 3 pick 2
Options:Lorenzo Carter,Kyle Lauletta, Frank Ragnow ,Josh Sweat, Darius leonard
Choice:LB Lorenzo Carter -toolsy LB with size and speed in the Leonard Floyd mold

ROUND 3 Pick 7
Options: Quentin Meeks,Shaquem Griffen, Leonard Davis, Kellen Ballage, Rashaad Penny
Choice: Quentin Meeks- most cerebral CB in draft class with decent size, can play press or man. Excellent instincts and anticipation.


ROUND 3 Pick 8
Options: Kyle Lauletta,Quentin Meeks,Shaquem Griffen, Lorenzo Carter, Shaquem Griffin,Oren Burks, Darius Leonard
Choice: QB Kyle Lauletta. Another coach on the field. Senior Bowl MVP. Outside the 1st round Qbs Giants paid most interest to him. insurance behind Webb once Eli retires with some upside. Could go much earlier as Washington is rumored to love him and considering him at #44.


2019 3rd rd pick
Imo, Lauletta is not getting out of the second round  
robbieballs2003 : 4/13/2018 4:02 pm : link
.
Great job on this!  
the mike : 4/13/2018 4:02 pm : link
While I have differences of opinion on some of the draft picks here and there, it is a very reasonable framework. And looking at the options, it seems to me that the trades with Denver or Buffalo are the most attractive options given the 2019 first round draft choice included in the haul of picks. Since Buffalo will likely be a top ten pick, this option looks by far the most attractive to me.

Which approach do you recommend? And which do you think Gettleman would make if given these choices?
RE: Imo, Lauletta is not getting out of the second round  
Big_Blue_in_the_Bronx : 4/13/2018 4:14 pm : link
In comment 13913360 robbieballs2003 said:
Quote:
.


You could very well be right. Top of the 3rd would be his limit I would think.
RE: Great job on this!  
Big_Blue_in_the_Bronx : 4/13/2018 4:21 pm : link
In comment 13913361 the mike said:
Quote:
While I have differences of opinion on some of the draft picks here and there, it is a very reasonable framework. And looking at the options, it seems to me that the trades with Denver or Buffalo are the most attractive options given the 2019 first round draft choice included in the haul of picks. Since Buffalo will likely be a top ten pick, this option looks by far the most attractive to me.

Which approach do you recommend? And which do you think Gettleman would make if given these choices?


Mike thanks for the reply!

I listed a few options of guys who could be available at each draft slot who I think would be fits both from a scheme as well as need standpoint.

As far as what Gettleman would do , I think they will take every offer and 'project a mock board' as I just did. Basically, a board with 3 or 4 guys that could be there at each draft slot to figure out the aggregate value range attained with each scenario. Then they'll likely pick the one that gives them the highest sum value range.
The value of something is generally determined by how much  
Big_Blue_in_the_Bronx : 4/13/2018 4:29 pm : link
someone is willing to pay for it.

Therefore, the Value placed on the #2 pick is going to be extremely high b/c multiple teams (with Buffalo being the most outspoken) have visions of selecting a bona-fide potential franchise QB for the next 10-15 years at that spot.

Gettlemen has tried to leverage that as much as possible by saying we expect to select a 'Gold Jacket' or H.O.F player at that pick.

However if we truly don't value the QBs nearly as high as other teams (which I believe is a mistake because I think Rosen is the best of them all) then someone will likely pay us more value for our pick (in extra picks) then what we would draft there.

Now of course, if the Giants are dead set in believing that Saquon is truly a generational talent (which is entirely possible) then the offer would have to be even more substantial to move down.
Hernandez won't be there in R2  
Rong5611 : 4/13/2018 4:45 pm : link
Thinking someone will grab him.
You should  
Chris in San Diego : 4/13/2018 5:20 pm : link
be workin for the Gmen. I hope they are thinking as hard as you are!!!
RE: Hernandez won't be there in R2  
Big_Blue_in_the_Bronx : 4/13/2018 6:40 pm : link
In comment 13913412 Rong5611 said:
Quote:
Thinking someone will grab him.


At 34 for a pure OG with Wynn and Nelson ahead of him is not outlandish. I would say about 50-50 he is there.
Dont see Browns as a trading partner  
Big_Blue_in_the_Bronx : 4/14/2018 3:23 am : link
Because they are not going to pass up their top target at QB. As for tradedown to 4, don't think they would be a 'QB' price for our #2 pick even for Barkley. Especially when they will likely either get him or Chubb at 4.

Now if Darnold has a stratospherically higher value than anyone on our board, like Eli did in 04 then MAYBE we make an offer to move up if Browns are OK with drafting Allen.
Great job, BBB  
Giantgator : 4/14/2018 7:17 am : link
I've been a proponent of trading back with the Bills for a while. Unless there's a QB we have conviction in, this roster has so many holes that 7 picks by the early 3rd round (plus a high pick next year) would be huge. We could have a cap-friendly core of young players for years. I'd like to see a WR with one of those picks, too.
RE: Great job, BBB  
Big_Blue_in_the_Bronx : 4/14/2018 9:48 am : link
In comment 13913814 Giantgator said:
Quote:
I've been a proponent of trading back with the Bills for a while. Unless there's a QB we have conviction in, this roster has so many holes that 7 picks by the early 3rd round (plus a high pick next year) would be huge. We could have a cap-friendly core of young players for years. I'd like to see a WR with one of those picks, too.


James Washington, Michael Gallup, DJ Moore.
Chris  
Big_Blue_in_the_Bronx : 4/14/2018 2:38 pm : link
They most definitely will be putting boards together like this to figure out if the overall value for a trade-down would be higher than staying at 2.

If you are a Barkley fan the Jets or Denver(if Browns dont take him) trade down could maximize value.
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