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What the 2nd pick is worth

gggggggmen : 4/13/2018 9:17 pm
Lets discuss what the 2nd pick is actually worth. This is how I see it -


The Jets gave picks 6, 37, 49 and a 2019 2nd to move up 3 picks for the opportunity to choose at least the 3rd best QB.


Using the traditional trade chart it comes out to giving 2735 points for 2200 points. This is significant because in making this trade, the Jets set the market to move up for the number 3 QB in this draft at a 24% premium.


Now looking at a potential Giants - Bills trade, to get close to a 24% premium, a trade between the teams would at a minimum look like:


Giants give picks:

2, 104
(2686 points)

Bills give picks:

12, 22 , 53, 56, 65 and a 2019 1st rd pick.
(3385 points)

This yields a 26% return, however the Jets set the market for the 3rd best QB. We offer at least the 2nd choice at QB, which in itself has a very real value. Now how can we quantify that value?


All things equal, the difference in value from picks 3 to 2 is 400 points, which essentially comes out to a future 1st round pick in the next year. Being that the Bills would need to give us our 2019 1st round pick, along with the 5 other picks mentioned above just to equal the value the Jets gave for the opportunity to choose at least the 3rd available QB, what else would the Bills have to give up to close this value gap?


To get about 400 points, the Bills would have to give an additional 2019 2nd round pick and a 2020 1st round pick. Now, as I said, that is when all things are equal, but in this case, were talking about Quarterbacks, so in addition to the 400 points to move from 3 to 2, in theory you could ask for more on top of that. In this case, we'll assume Gettleman will be gracious and stop while were ahead.

Therefore, the revised trade with the Bills work look something like -

Giants give picks:

2, 104
(2686 points)

Bills give picks:

12, 22 , 53, 56, 65, 2019 1st rd pick, 2019 2nd rd pick, 2020 1st rd pick
(3775 points)


All in all, my valuation of the 2nd overall pick would require the trading team to pay a 41% premium on the pick in draft pick points thanks in part to the market value set by the Jets to acquire the opportunity to draft the 3rd best quarterback + the move from the 3rd pick to 2nd pick.


Of course, the market is dictated on whether someone is willing to pay that price, but for the sake of valuation, the number 2 pick is more valuable than a lot of us have considered.
None of that may matter if the Giants don't want to drop that low...  
GFAN52 : 4/13/2018 9:29 pm : link
to the 12th pick.
markets are imperfect in real life  
Giantsfan79 : 4/13/2018 10:02 pm : link
the bills aren't giving up 4 #1s plus other picks for the #2 pick.
also  
Giantsfan79 : 4/13/2018 10:04 pm : link
your expected return rate may be unrealistic.
You are not considering competition  
twostepgiants : 4/13/2018 10:13 pm : link
When the Colts traded with the Jets, they had a competitor in the Bills, a division rival. A team in their division who could have conceivably moved p to 3 and knocked the jets out of QB neighborhood at the 6. 4 QB could have realistically been gone by 5th pick.

This drove up the price.

The Bills really have no competitor for the pick. Maybe the Broncos but current rumors suggest that they may move down with the Bills, also driving down the cost asrtomically.
Its worth the next decade+ of better QB play  
Jimmy Googs : 4/13/2018 10:19 pm : link
for the NY Giants...
Trade chart  
djstat : 4/13/2018 10:44 pm : link
Is out dated and openly said so by NFL personnel but continue to use it.
I am not against trading down  
Rjanyg : 4/13/2018 10:47 pm : link
But at some point we have to think about quality over quantity.

If NYG doesn't feel the player available at pick 2 is worth it then a trade back is possible but only so far. Pick 12 is a long way from 2, and while I think there will be some nice players available with Buffalos 2- 1st rounders, I have to believe that Gettlemen would prefer to stay in the top 5 or picks. 3 QB's will be gone by pick 4, with Barkley or Chubb gone as well. So at pick 5, you can select Nelson or one of Chubb/Barkley. Denver has been looking for their QB. A trade with them would allow a blue chip talent to be had while also grabbing 2-3 more picks.
The only way you trade down to 12.  
Nysportsfn13 : 4/13/2018 11:21 pm : link
is if you can use some of those picks to trade back into the top 10 and still be able to get a Nelson, Chubb, Fitzpatrick, etc.
The Giants sucked balls last year. They don't need a Barry Sanders  
wgenesis123 : 4/14/2018 12:50 am : link
to be a star on a losing team. They need a team. Only a QB or a better offer should deter the Giants from taking a boat load of picks. OBJ is a blue chip player, you can't get that many picks or that kind of value in a trade for OBJ. There is good reason for that, the picks have more value. Don't you guys worry about it though, its hard to believe the Bills will offer that much for the pick. A 2019 and 2020 first round pick in the package with the 12 and 22 this year, not going to happen in my opinion.
we are not trading down to twelve  
gtt350 : 4/14/2018 12:51 am : link
we played extra shiity to get the 2nd pick and damn we better take it.
Youknow this how? Its not just trading down to 12, also add  
wgenesis123 : 4/14/2018 1:14 am : link
22,53,56,65 plus future picks that can be used to get the right QB. It is all about who has the right stuff. If that guy is there at 2 in DG's opinion, this is all moot.
To go from the second pick,  
Doomster : 4/14/2018 8:51 am : link
to out of the top ten?

Even a first round pick could be out of the top 10 next year......

I am hoping that the qb, that is available at #2, is the Guy that DG wants, and is not forced to pick....

And if a QB is picked, be prepared for another 4-7 win season next year, because there will be no contribution from the first pick, and you will be lucky to get one good starter from the rest of the draft...

This year, was used to start the process.....one that will take several seasons to get back to a team that has some sort of future....The Eli era will be over next year, and the DG watch will start.....unless, no QB is drafted at #2.......
Gggg to make your hypothesis more fun  
idiotsavant : 4/14/2018 8:59 am : link
List just all those picks along with the ones we have.
Parcell's said " you are what your record  
Dave on the UWS : 4/14/2018 9:37 am : link
says you are". NY lost 13 games last year. Sometimes, that analysis is an over simplification. Many here don't see the picture as a whole. I don't believe this is a 3-13 team- here's why. Forget the injuries after the first five games. The culture and atmosphere around the team was SO toxic it ruined any chance this team had of growing together. That's the fault of the GM and HC. The schemes used on offense and defense were so dysfunctional that an epic collapse was predicated on that dysfunction. When OBJ got hurt in pre season that pretty much flushed the offense in the toilet. The defense was dependent as always with spans, stellar DL play and good CB play. That didn't happen and when that's the case his defenses have always been atrocious.

What I'm saying here is bringing Getts, Shurmur, and Betts in will have MASSIVE benefits. There is enough talent to be a .500 team at least.
I think we can expect a better atmosphere, a better scheme on defense, an offense that makes sense that puts players in position to succeed (not just Beckham). Logically, that should mean more wins.
RE: You are not considering competition  
gggggggmen : 4/14/2018 10:26 am : link
In comment 13913680 twostepgiants said:
Quote:
When the Colts traded with the Jets, they had a competitor in the Bills, a division rival. A team in their division who could have conceivably moved p to 3 and knocked the jets out of QB neighborhood at the 6. 4 QB could have realistically been gone by 5th pick.

This drove up the price.

The Bills really have no competitor for the pick. Maybe the Broncos but current rumors suggest that they may move down with the Bills, also driving down the cost asrtomically.



The competition hasn't changed at all. The Jets moved into the top 3 to better position themselves. They are still competing with the Bills to get the QB of their choice. At some point the Jets need to decide on which QB they want and it would be very foolish of them to give up what they gave up to not go get the QB they want. For that reason, I wouldn't rule out the Jets attempting to move up again. Like I said in the post, a future 1st rd pick is the difference between 2 and 3. That value can be made up with other picks, like last years bears / 49ers trade, but this draft very different in terms of available talent at QB and the competition of teams looking to move up.
RE: markets are imperfect in real life  
gggggggmen : 4/14/2018 10:41 am : link
In comment 13913664 Giantsfan79 said:
Quote:
the bills aren't giving up 4 #1s plus other picks for the #2 pick.



The point of the post was to put a valuation to the number 2 pick. The Jets trade gives us data as to what at least 2 teams feel the market for these QBs is worth to them. Not all first picks are equal, for example, if the Bills wanted to jump from 12th pick to 6th pick in this draft it would probably cost them pick 22 and another late 2nd/ early 3rd, leaving them with picks 6, 56, 65 this year. Next using the Jets trade as a basis, the Bills wouldn't have the same ammunition the Jets had to even move to 3, let alone 2. The Jets gave up picks 6, 37, 49 and a future 2nd to get to 3. In this scenario, even if the Bills gave 6, 56, 65 and a future 2nd, they're still behind from a value standpoint. And this is still matching up value to get to the value of pick 3. So getting to 2 will cause the Bills to trade future 1s to make such a move. With the Jets sitting at 3 and the Bills lurking, they would be foolish to not move up for the QB they want if he's sitting at number 2. You don't give up all of the picks the Jets gave up to not get your guy. They're pot committed at this point.
when there are big time QB prospects on the board  
firedbytheboss : 4/14/2018 10:58 am : link
... the price of the pick goes up beyond market prices.

Teams trading for the #2 pick are trading for a potential franchise QB. Yes they may give up two, three or four first rounders. A QB changes your franchise for a decade. It is worth any cost.

If they were trading up for a guy like Barkley you might get the market value, nothing more.
I think you're dobule counting...  
M.S. : 4/14/2018 12:02 pm : link

...when you add in that extra 400 points.
Thats an unrealistic return  
PatersonPlank : 4/14/2018 12:20 pm : link
You add on a 26% increase, then add 400 more pts because the Jets are morons. Bills won't give up that many 1st picks.
RE: I think you're dobule counting...  
gggggggmen : 4/14/2018 12:31 pm : link
In comment 13913991 M.S. said:
Quote:

...when you add in that extra 400 points.


How? I got th Bills to 3rd pick based on the premium the Jets paid, then got them to 2 with the additional 400 points
RE: Thats an unrealistic return  
gggggggmen : 4/14/2018 12:36 pm : link
In comment 13914003 PatersonPlank said:
Quote:
You add on a 26% increase, then add 400 more pts because the Jets are morons. Bills won't give up that many 1st picks.


Are the Jets morons or is that the premium for a franchise QB? If the Bills don't want to move to 2 then I would tell them ok, I'll get my 400 points from the Jets and move from 2 to 3, and I'll give you the 3rd QB choice, take it or leave it.

Let's not forget the Bills are trying to move from the middle of the 1st round, not 6th overall like the Jets did. Just for the Bills to move to 6 would cost them 2-3 picks
RE: RE: I think you're dobule counting...  
M.S. : 4/14/2018 4:54 pm : link
In comment 13914013 gggggggmen said:
Quote:
In comment 13913991 M.S. said:


Quote:



...when you add in that extra 400 points.



How? I got th Bills to 3rd pick based on the premium the Jets paid, then got them to 2 with the additional 400 points

Maybe I should have said that the 400 points shouldn't be straight line added onto the haul of picks based on your original 26% premium.
RE: RE: RE: I think you're dobule counting...  
gggggggmen : 4/14/2018 5:42 pm : link
In comment 13914184 M.S. said:
Quote:
In comment 13914013 gggggggmen said:


Quote:


In comment 13913991 M.S. said:


Quote:



...when you add in that extra 400 points.



How? I got th Bills to 3rd pick based on the premium the Jets paid, then got them to 2 with the additional 400 points


Maybe I should have said that the 400 points shouldn't be straight line added onto the haul of picks based on your original 26% premium.


Again, the point of the post was to create a valuation for the 2nd pick. So I don't know why it wouldn't be a straight line. The post wasn't about whether the Bills would be willing to accept, but from a strategy standpoint, I could tell the Bills that with a 26% premium I can get you to at least 3, but I'm talking to the Jets as well. If you want to by pass that risk outright, pay me 41%
To quote our GM: "You can't get too cute"  
cwillm : 4/14/2018 7:38 pm : link
We're taking a QB, in all likelihood.

But wait - Rosen had a shoulder injury (it healed on it's own). He also had a couple of concussions. Red flag, can't draft him! Instead, let's take Barkley who will be tackled 25+ times per game, and who plays a position which, according to the NFL Players Association, averages a 3.3 year life-span..

We can't take our next QB until there are no concerns whatsoever - it has to be a 'can't miss' prospect! Hopefully we have the #1 pick in the right year sometime in the next decade or so when the next Andrew Luck comes out.
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