Lets discuss what the 2nd pick is actually worth. This is how I see it -
The Jets gave picks 6, 37, 49 and a 2019 2nd to move up 3 picks for the opportunity to choose at least the 3rd best QB.
Using the traditional trade chart it comes out to giving 2735 points for 2200 points. This is significant because in making this trade, the Jets set the market to move up for the number 3 QB in this draft at a 24% premium.
Now looking at a potential Giants - Bills trade, to get close to a 24% premium, a trade between the teams would at a minimum look like:
Giants give picks:
2, 104
(2686 points)
Bills give picks:
12, 22 , 53, 56, 65 and a 2019 1st rd pick.
(3385 points)
This yields a 26% return, however the Jets set the market for the 3rd best QB. We offer at least the 2nd choice at QB, which in itself has a very real value. Now how can we quantify that value?
All things equal, the difference in value from picks 3 to 2 is 400 points, which essentially comes out to a future 1st round pick in the next year. Being that the Bills would need to give us our 2019 1st round pick, along with the 5 other picks mentioned above just to equal the value the Jets gave for the opportunity to choose at least the 3rd available QB, what else would the Bills have to give up to close this value gap?
To get about 400 points, the Bills would have to give an additional 2019 2nd round pick and a 2020 1st round pick. Now, as I said, that is when all things are equal, but in this case, were talking about Quarterbacks, so in addition to the 400 points to move from 3 to 2, in theory you could ask for more on top of that. In this case, we'll assume Gettleman will be gracious and stop while were ahead.
Therefore, the revised trade with the Bills work look something like -
Giants give picks:
2, 104
(2686 points)
Bills give picks:
12, 22 , 53, 56, 65, 2019 1st rd pick, 2019 2nd rd pick, 2020 1st rd pick
(3775 points)
All in all, my valuation of the 2nd overall pick would require the trading team to pay a 41% premium on the pick in draft pick points thanks in part to the market value set by the Jets to acquire the opportunity to draft the 3rd best quarterback + the move from the 3rd pick to 2nd pick.
Of course, the market is dictated on whether someone is willing to pay that price, but for the sake of valuation, the number 2 pick is more valuable than a lot of us have considered.
This drove up the price.
The Bills really have no competitor for the pick. Maybe the Broncos but current rumors suggest that they may move down with the Bills, also driving down the cost asrtomically.
If NYG doesn't feel the player available at pick 2 is worth it then a trade back is possible but only so far. Pick 12 is a long way from 2, and while I think there will be some nice players available with Buffalos 2- 1st rounders, I have to believe that Gettlemen would prefer to stay in the top 5 or picks. 3 QB's will be gone by pick 4, with Barkley or Chubb gone as well. So at pick 5, you can select Nelson or one of Chubb/Barkley. Denver has been looking for their QB. A trade with them would allow a blue chip talent to be had while also grabbing 2-3 more picks.
Even a first round pick could be out of the top 10 next year......
I am hoping that the qb, that is available at #2, is the Guy that DG wants, and is not forced to pick....
And if a QB is picked, be prepared for another 4-7 win season next year, because there will be no contribution from the first pick, and you will be lucky to get one good starter from the rest of the draft...
This year, was used to start the process.....one that will take several seasons to get back to a team that has some sort of future....The Eli era will be over next year, and the DG watch will start.....unless, no QB is drafted at #2.......
What I'm saying here is bringing Getts, Shurmur, and Betts in will have MASSIVE benefits. There is enough talent to be a .500 team at least.
I think we can expect a better atmosphere, a better scheme on defense, an offense that makes sense that puts players in position to succeed (not just Beckham). Logically, that should mean more wins.
This drove up the price.
The Bills really have no competitor for the pick. Maybe the Broncos but current rumors suggest that they may move down with the Bills, also driving down the cost asrtomically.
The competition hasn't changed at all. The Jets moved into the top 3 to better position themselves. They are still competing with the Bills to get the QB of their choice. At some point the Jets need to decide on which QB they want and it would be very foolish of them to give up what they gave up to not go get the QB they want. For that reason, I wouldn't rule out the Jets attempting to move up again. Like I said in the post, a future 1st rd pick is the difference between 2 and 3. That value can be made up with other picks, like last years bears / 49ers trade, but this draft very different in terms of available talent at QB and the competition of teams looking to move up.
The point of the post was to put a valuation to the number 2 pick. The Jets trade gives us data as to what at least 2 teams feel the market for these QBs is worth to them. Not all first picks are equal, for example, if the Bills wanted to jump from 12th pick to 6th pick in this draft it would probably cost them pick 22 and another late 2nd/ early 3rd, leaving them with picks 6, 56, 65 this year. Next using the Jets trade as a basis, the Bills wouldn't have the same ammunition the Jets had to even move to 3, let alone 2. The Jets gave up picks 6, 37, 49 and a future 2nd to get to 3. In this scenario, even if the Bills gave 6, 56, 65 and a future 2nd, they're still behind from a value standpoint. And this is still matching up value to get to the value of pick 3. So getting to 2 will cause the Bills to trade future 1s to make such a move. With the Jets sitting at 3 and the Bills lurking, they would be foolish to not move up for the QB they want if he's sitting at number 2. You don't give up all of the picks the Jets gave up to not get your guy. They're pot committed at this point.
Teams trading for the #2 pick are trading for a potential franchise QB. Yes they may give up two, three or four first rounders. A QB changes your franchise for a decade. It is worth any cost.
If they were trading up for a guy like Barkley you might get the market value, nothing more.
...when you add in that extra 400 points.
...when you add in that extra 400 points.
How? I got th Bills to 3rd pick based on the premium the Jets paid, then got them to 2 with the additional 400 points
Are the Jets morons or is that the premium for a franchise QB? If the Bills don't want to move to 2 then I would tell them ok, I'll get my 400 points from the Jets and move from 2 to 3, and I'll give you the 3rd QB choice, take it or leave it.
Let's not forget the Bills are trying to move from the middle of the 1st round, not 6th overall like the Jets did. Just for the Bills to move to 6 would cost them 2-3 picks
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...when you add in that extra 400 points.
How? I got th Bills to 3rd pick based on the premium the Jets paid, then got them to 2 with the additional 400 points
Maybe I should have said that the 400 points shouldn't be straight line added onto the haul of picks based on your original 26% premium.
Quote:
In comment 13913991 M.S. said:
Quote:
...when you add in that extra 400 points.
How? I got th Bills to 3rd pick based on the premium the Jets paid, then got them to 2 with the additional 400 points
Maybe I should have said that the 400 points shouldn't be straight line added onto the haul of picks based on your original 26% premium.
Again, the point of the post was to create a valuation for the 2nd pick. So I don't know why it wouldn't be a straight line. The post wasn't about whether the Bills would be willing to accept, but from a strategy standpoint, I could tell the Bills that with a 26% premium I can get you to at least 3, but I'm talking to the Jets as well. If you want to by pass that risk outright, pay me 41%
But wait - Rosen had a shoulder injury (it healed on it's own). He also had a couple of concussions. Red flag, can't draft him! Instead, let's take Barkley who will be tackled 25+ times per game, and who plays a position which, according to the NFL Players Association, averages a 3.3 year life-span..
We can't take our next QB until there are no concerns whatsoever - it has to be a 'can't miss' prospect! Hopefully we have the #1 pick in the right year sometime in the next decade or so when the next Andrew Luck comes out.