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ESPN Rich Cimini Mock Draft: Giants trade down to 5

GFAN52 : 4/15/2018 8:09 am
Bills trade up from 12 to 5, and then to 2 with the Giants who take Chubb at 5.
Link - ( New Window )
People keep talking about this scenario, but nobody mentions  
jlukes : 4/15/2018 8:11 am : link
what the Bills have to move up from 12 to 5 and then from 5 to 2.

I really don't think they have enough ammo
I was under the impression that Denver is unlikely to move up.  
wgenesis123 : 4/15/2018 8:14 am : link
I hope I am wrong.
If Buffalo was going to move twice  
Mike from Ohio : 4/15/2018 8:14 am : link
I'd think they would have to lock down the first move well in advance of the draft so that they could begin negotiating the second trade. Trying to do both while teams are on the clock could cause them to have to over pay.
My bad, I completely overlooked Bills move up to 5.  
wgenesis123 : 4/15/2018 8:18 am : link
Yesterday I heard Denver will be looking to move down if their guy is not there at 5. By the time Denver goes on the clock at 5, its to late for Buffalo to trade up to 2 from 5. Buffalo will have to pay big to move Denver before the draft which is what this scenario requires to work.
From the Bills point of view, I don't get it.  
barens : 4/15/2018 8:20 am : link
You lose your starting left tackle, they are going to give up their 1st, both 2nds, 3rd, and possibly next years first round pick? And they already brought in AJ Mccarran?
People always assume the other trading partner is willing-  
Sean : 4/15/2018 8:23 am : link
but I donít see it. We know Buffalo wants to likely move up, but do we know about Denver? If Denver doesnít love any of the QBís, they have no reason to move up.
Trading w/ Cleveland or Denver  
Capt. Don : 4/15/2018 8:25 am : link
is the most palatable/likely option IMO.

Elway has said that he is not, "dont swinging for the fences" and picking your 4th rated QB is NOT swinging for the fences. They have the draft capital to get there too.

Cleveland is also an option if they significantly value Barkley over Chubb or vice versa. If not, they can just sit there and whomever is left over (maybe both of them). I think if they stay and have their pick between the two, they take Chubb, leaving Barkley and the 4th rated QB at 5.

If that is the case we (now at #5) could then be in a really good to position to take either of them, or now trade back with any number of teams. Miami, Bills for a QB or Tampa/Niners for Barkley.
Elway is not *DONE* swinging for the fences.  
Capt. Don : 4/15/2018 8:28 am : link
typo.
Most likely scenario is Buffalo  
ZogZerg : 4/15/2018 8:33 am : link
Moving to 4.
RE: Most likely scenario is Buffalo  
the mike : 4/15/2018 8:47 am : link
In comment 13914602 ZogZerg said:
Quote:
Moving to 4.


I agree with this point. Hard to see why Buffalo would do all of that to go to the fifth pick only to give up more to then go to the second. Since one of the core four quarterbacks will be there at four, it will be much more cost effective for them to simply trade once with the Browns...

Hard to believe I am actually feeling a bit of envy for the Browns!
RE: People keep talking about this scenario, but nobody mentions  
bigbluescot : 4/15/2018 9:10 am : link
In comment 13914585 jlukes said:
Quote:
what the Bills have to move up from 12 to 5 and then from 5 to 2.

I really don't think they have enough ammo


They probably do if they're willing to spend it, especially if some next years picks are involved. The question is whether they're willing to go all in to an almost ridiculous point.

They've got 2 picks in the first round (#12 and #22), two in the second round (#53 and #56) and two in the third (#65 and #96. They've also got a 4th, 5th and 6th.

Using the value chart (I know, I know, but you can calculate the premium based on the Jets-Colts trade as basis), then to move from #12 (1200) to #5 (1700) then it's 500 points of value. The Jets trade put a 34% premium on their move from 6 to 3, so if we use that as a basis then that 500 points turns to 670. Lets round that up to 700 points (because hey they're desperate and it's a long way to go) So, they 'need' to find around 1900 points of value

#12 (1200)
#53 (370)
#65 (265)
#121 (52)

gets you to 1887 points. And gives Denver an additional 2nd, 3rd and 4th round pick.

Leaving Buffalo with

#5
#22
#56
#96
#166
#187

The 'cost' per the chart to move from #5 to #2 is 900 points. Again lets put 34% on it. That's 1206 points they'd need to find.

#22 (780) + #56 (340) + their 2019 1st (taking value of their first 2nd round pick as the equivalent: 370) gets you close, and is certainly comparable to what the Colts got.

2 additional 1sts and a 2nd is worth it imho if we're not taking a QB and still staying in the sweet spot of the draft.

Personally, I don't think Buffalo will spend that much but that's what I'd be looking for.

Again, I don't put too much absolute stock on the value chart, where it does become useful is when there is a similar trade made in the same year. The consensus was the Colts got a good deal and on that basis I'd argue both Denver and the Giants would come out with good deal, although I don't see Denver trading down.
What would motivate the Bills?  
SB 42 and 46 and ? : 4/15/2018 9:11 am : link
How about years of sucking since they lost their last franchise quarterback Jim Kelly.

So the Giants trade out and take Chubb. Well, thatís a hell of a lot better than staying at two and taking Barkley. Who builds a franchise around a running back?

So a year from now they still need a QB even more than this year, but they have the 14th pick and only two quarterbacks are considered first round quality.

They will stay at two and take a QB unless they disagree with the consensus that at least two of the quarterbacks are really special or theyíre secretly in love with some obscure QB at Morehead State who they can pick up in the third round.
Top 5 right now is  
Rjanyg : 4/15/2018 9:11 am : link
1. Browns
2. Giants
3. Jets
4. Browns
5. Broncos

If Darnold goes to Cleveland it could be:

1. Browns: Darnold
2. Denver: Rosen
3. Jets: Mayfield
4. Bills: Allen
5. Giants: Barkley

If Allen goes to Cleveland

1. Browns: Allen
2. Giants: Darnold
3. Jets: Rosen
4. Browns: Barkley
5. Bills: Mayfield

I think Denver wants Rosen. I also thin NYG wants Darnold. This the most likely 2 scenarios

'jlukes: I really don't think they have enough ammo'...  
Torrag : 4/15/2018 9:14 am : link
...unless they are willing to basically give up both this and next years draft I agree with you. And maybe even dip into their 2019 1st or 2nd rounder. Which would be a radical move.

[i]Most likely scenario is Buffalo
ZogZerg
Moving to 4.[i]...

...Cleveland doesn't need a bunch of picks anymore. They have them already. Now they need impact players. The likely move for Buffalo is to #5 and they'll get one of the big 4 QB's after the Browns execute pick #4. As stated above they won't have enough left to trade up to #2 for our slot unless the GM/owner are willing to do something extreme. Which would be unusual to say the least.
RE: RE: Most likely scenario is Buffalo  
bigbluescot : 4/15/2018 9:16 am : link
In comment 13914615 the mike said:
Quote:
In comment 13914602 ZogZerg said:


Quote:


Moving to 4.



I agree with this point. Hard to see why Buffalo would do all of that to go to the fifth pick only to give up more to then go to the second. Since one of the core four quarterbacks will be there at four, it will be much more cost effective for them to simply trade once with the Browns...

Hard to believe I am actually feeling a bit of envy for the Browns!


I wouldn't get too hung up on there's four core QB's, they're pretty different prospects. Getting your choice of 3 of them is pretty important. While Rosen is the most pro ready, he's also the one who'll need more of a settled Oline, as talented as Darnold flashes he needs to sit more than probably even Allen who will also need time but at least comes from a pro style offense. Mayfield isn't a plug and play guy he'll need an offense constructed around him.
RE: What would motivate the Bills?  
bigbluescot : 4/15/2018 9:18 am : link
In comment 13914624 SB 42 and 46 and ? said:
Quote:
How about years of sucking since they lost their last franchise quarterback Jim Kelly.

So the Giants trade out and take Chubb. Well, thatís a hell of a lot better than staying at two and taking Barkley. Who builds a franchise around a running back?

So a year from now they still need a QB even more than this year, but they have the 14th pick and only two quarterbacks are considered first round quality.

They will stay at two and take a QB unless they disagree with the consensus that at least two of the quarterbacks are really special or theyíre secretly in love with some obscure QB at Morehead State who they can pick up in the third round.


Not sure why, but I don't see the Browns taking Barkley. I actually think there's more of a chance they throw a curveball and go for Ward at CB.
I donít think the Giants will demand a lot to move down to 4 or 5  
Ivan15 : 4/15/2018 10:42 am : link
If they donít like the available QBs. They could demand and get a lot if a team wants the last of the Big 4 QBs.
No team has been more reported or outspoken in their quest  
Big_Blue_in_the_Bronx : 4/15/2018 11:12 am : link
To move up for a top QB. By all indications it seems they are 'sold out' to get 1 of these top guys. If any team will give up the farm its likely them. They have a wealth of picks to be able to pull it off too (including some of their 2019 picks).
Don't see it happening  
bc4life : 4/15/2018 11:16 am : link
If Giants dont take QB at 2 and Cleveland doesnt take Barkley, it will be Barkley.
I love this scenario  
averagejoe : 4/15/2018 11:21 am : link
but it is unlikely. A straight trade with Denver is more likely. If Elway loves Rosen or Allen Chubb will be the pick at 5 and DG will use picks for RB and OL and OLB.

I really don't see Giants taking Chubb at two when teams are sure to be calling for a QB.
Why is everyone assuming  
EddieNYG : 4/15/2018 11:23 am : link
only QB Giants like is Darnold?

Where did this start?
RE: Why is everyone assuming  
GFAN52 : 4/15/2018 11:59 am : link
In comment 13914702 EddieNYG said:
Quote:
only QB Giants like is Darnold?

Where did this start?


Here's one link.
Link - ( New Window )
This makes NO sense  
twostepgiants : 4/15/2018 12:22 pm : link
The first is that IF the Bills can deal up to 5- why the need to trade up again? They have already landed a QB there.

Furthermore, if both the Giants and Bills are not drafting QB then they have the ability to sit in place and let maybe 1 fall to them. They have the ability to outbid the Cards & Dolphins on any draft day trade around them.

Yeah I get they may prefer 1 of the others but the odds are not so much to trade every asset they have to move up from 12 to 5 and then from 5 to 2.

We also have no idea whom they prefer. Maybe they like Allen. Maybe they like Rosen? Maybe they like Mayfield. Maybe they just want 1 of the QBs.

No one really knows that part. But logically it makes no sense for Bills to trade up to Denver and then deal again. They are guaranteed a QB at 5. Probably the #3 QB off the board at that.
RE: RE: Why is everyone assuming  
EddieNYG : 4/15/2018 12:23 pm : link
In comment 13914746 GFAN52 said:
Quote:
In comment 13914702 EddieNYG said:


Quote:


only QB Giants like is Darnold?

Where did this start?



Here's one link. Link - ( New Window )


So it's just speculation by some random NFL Executive?
Art is thinking DG might consider IF they trade down....  
GFAN52 : 4/15/2018 12:24 pm : link
Art Stapleton

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Wrote it yesterday and believe it still applies to any possible Giants trade out of No. 2: just a guess, but would think teams (notably Bills) need to get into the Top 10 (maybe to 6 or 7 from 12) to entice Gettleman to contemplate pulling the trigger and moving down with them.
RE: RE: RE: Why is everyone assuming  
GFAN52 : 4/15/2018 12:25 pm : link
In comment 13914772 EddieNYG said:
Quote:
In comment 13914746 GFAN52 said:


Quote:


In comment 13914702 EddieNYG said:


Quote:


only QB Giants like is Darnold?

Where did this start?



Here's one link. Link - ( New Window )



So it's just speculation by some random NFL Executive?


It's everything reported at this time purely speculation unless some here has true asshat info though.
Is there a way  
XBRONX : 4/15/2018 12:26 pm : link
the Giants could trade back enough times to have the entire third round to themselves?
Buffalo desparately needs a QB - AJ is just a stop gap  
PatersonPlank : 4/15/2018 12:28 pm : link
for this season or next. IMO, they will do whatever they have to in order to move up and grab their QB for 2019 and beyond. Denver is sort of in the same boat as the Giants. Both have a starter for now, and a younger guy they need to make a decision about (Paxson Lynch in their case).

I could see the Giants trading with either team.
RE: Don't see it happening  
Eman11 : 4/15/2018 12:38 pm : link
In comment 13914694 bc4life said:
Quote:
If Giants dont take QB at 2 and Cleveland doesnt take Barkley, it will be Barkley.


I agree and that's who I want them to take at 2. If they do trade back to 5 and Barkley is gone, I'd rather them take Nelson than Chubb.
The Giants will not be taking Barkley with the second pick.  
SB 42 and 46 and ? : 4/15/2018 2:48 pm : link
Itís much easier to find a running back later in the draft then a quarterback or a pass rusher. Itís a passing game and running backs usually start to run down after four to six years. And theyíre are really dependent on their blockers.

The Cowboys put their offensive line together first and then added the back. What numbers would Zeke have put up last season if he had the Giantsí line blocking for him?

It wouldnít surprise me if Zeke didnít go until nine or ten.
RE: The Giants will not be taking Barkley with the second pick.  
Big_Blue_in_the_Bronx : 4/15/2018 3:50 pm : link
In comment 13914946 SB 42 and 46 and ? said:
Quote:
Itís much easier to find a running back later in the draft then a quarterback or a pass rusher. Itís a passing game and running backs usually start to run down after four to six years. And theyíre are really dependent on their blockers.

The Cowboys put their offensive line together first and then added the back. What numbers would Zeke have put up last season if he had the Giantsí line blocking for him?

It wouldnít surprise me if Zeke didnít go until nine or ten.


Barkley and a plug and play OL in early round 2 and possibly in round 3 like Ragnow or Braden Smith.

We pick at the very top of the round in a fairly deep draft for OL (outside of LT)
Giants trading down in the draft with Buffalo and/or Denver  
royhobbs7 : 4/15/2018 8:08 pm : link
That only happens if Dorsey drafts Barkley @ #1 or trades down and another team drafts Barkley at #1. That scenario is probably remote.
With the #2 pick, the Giants will draft Barkley. Forget about drafting a QB. With #2, you want to draft a can't miss, generational prospect like LT (back in 1981). Barkley and Nelson are the only can't misses here (and Nelson is not going before #4).
Drafting a perennial Pro Bowl QB in Rd. 1 has not been a good proposition. Less than 50% have been hits since 1993. And even Sam Darnold is not a given!!!!

Mistakes are constantly made. We made a huge mistake in 2015 drafting Flowers over Gurley. We can't afford to make the same mistake again!
RE: RE: The Giants will not be taking Barkley with the second pick.  
royhobbs7 : 4/15/2018 8:20 pm : link
In comment 13915010 Big_Blue_in_the_Bronx said:
Quote:
In comment 13914946 SB 42 and 46 and ? said:


Quote:


Itís much easier to find a running back later in the draft then a quarterback or a pass rusher. Itís a passing game and running backs usually start to run down after four to six years. And theyíre are really dependent on their blockers.

The Cowboys put their offensive line together first and then added the back. What numbers would Zeke have put up last season if he had the Giantsí line blocking for him?

It wouldnít surprise me if Zeke didnít go until nine or ten.



Barkley and a plug and play OL in early round 2 and possibly in round 3 like Ragnow or Braden Smith.

We pick at the very top of the round in a fairly deep draft for OL (outside of LT)


Your rationale for taking Barkley is not well formed. As an argument to challenge your point of view, the Rams drafted Gurley who was coming off knee surgery; the Rams O-Line was as porous as the Giants in 2015 (if not even worse).
I guess that Gurley hasn't been too productive.
You draft a generational player at #2; not a possible. QBs drafted in the 1st Rd. since 1993 have been successful less than 50% of the time.
I don't care that Barkley plays RB. He improves Eli, the offense and the defense (through enhancing ball control). Barkley along with OBJ will give opponent DC's nightmares.
He will also rekindle Eli's career as the offense will no longer have to be solely carried on his shoulders. With play-action (Barkley making it convincing), a better O-Line (with improved run/pass blocking, a healthy OBJ, an offensive philosophy which better fits Eli, and a coach that can coach a journeyman QB to a near Super Bowl appearance (Shurmur mentoring Keenum), Eli will be able to once again bring the Giants well into the playoffs and compete competently into his 40th birthday!
RE: RE: RE: The Giants will not be taking Barkley with the second pick.  
OC2.0 : 4/16/2018 3:36 am : link
In comment 13915203 royhobbs7 said:
Quote:
In comment 13915010 Big_Blue_in_the_Bronx said:


Quote:


In comment 13914946 SB 42 and 46 and ? said:


Quote:


Itís much easier to find a running back later in the draft then a quarterback or a pass rusher. Itís a passing game and running backs usually start to run down after four to six years. And theyíre are really dependent on their blockers.

The Cowboys put their offensive line together first and then added the back. What numbers would Zeke have put up last season if he had the Giantsí line blocking for him?

It wouldnít surprise me if Zeke didnít go until nine or ten.



Barkley and a plug and play OL in early round 2 and possibly in round 3 like Ragnow or Braden Smith.

We pick at the very top of the round in a fairly deep draft for OL (outside of LT)



Your rationale for taking Barkley is not well formed. As an argument to challenge your point of view, the Rams drafted Gurley who was coming off knee surgery; the Rams O-Line was as porous as the Giants in 2015 (if not even worse).
I guess that Gurley hasn't been too productive.
You draft a generational player at #2; not a possible. QBs drafted in the 1st Rd. since 1993 have been successful less than 50% of the time.
I don't care that Barkley plays RB. He improves Eli, the offense and the defense (through enhancing ball control). Barkley along with OBJ will give opponent DC's nightmares.
He will also rekindle Eli's career as the offense will no longer have to be solely carried on his shoulders. With play-action (Barkley making it convincing), a better O-Line (with improved run/pass blocking, a healthy OBJ, an offensive philosophy which better fits Eli, and a coach that can coach a journeyman QB to a near Super Bowl appearance (Shurmur mentoring Keenum), Eli will be able to once again bring the Giants well into the playoffs and compete competently into his 40th birthday!


The fact that McAdoo is gone helps the O regardless of what else happens.
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