It's a long post. But tl:dr- the record is 6-3-1 for trading down with Buffalo.
What I've done here is compared the #2 overall pick from the last ten years versus the #12, #22, and the next year's #17 (slightly below mean).
The idea here is to get an anecdotal sense of what "gold jacket, generational talent" versus first round quantity might actually look like.
It was an interesting exercise...
2016- (2) Carson Wentz, QB, Philidelphia
vs.
2016- (12) Sheldon Rankins, DT, New Orleans (22) Josh Doctson, WR, Washington
2017- (17) Jonathan Allen, DE, Washington
Lots of injuries to the three lower picks = big win for the Eagles and #2 overall.
2015- (2) Marcus Mariota, QB, Tennessee
vs.
2015- (12) Danny Shelton, DT, Cleveland (22) Bud Dupree, OLB, Pittsburgh
2016- (17) Keanu Neal, S, Atlanta (2017 Pro Bowl replacement)
Decent starter in Mariota wins over two "meh" first rounders and a borderline probowler in Neal.
2014- (2) Greg Robinson, OT, St. Louis BUST
vs.
2014- (12) OBJ, WR, New York Giants (22) Johnny Manziel, QB, Cleveland
2015- (17) Arik Armstead, DE, San Francisco INC- injured
First win for the trade down. Interestingly, first non QB picked at 2 overall.
2013- (2) Luke Joeckel, OT, Jacksonville - injury-riddled career that did not end well.
vs.
2013- (12) DJ Hayden, CB, Oakland - average corner (22) Desmond Trufant, CB, Atlanta - solid starting cornerback.
2014- (17) CJ Mosely, LB, Baltimore. Three-time probowler.
Another big win for trade down. Three starting quality defenders vs. a borderline bust LT.
2012- (2) Robert Griffin, QB, Washington - 40 NFL starts.
vs.
2012- (12) Fletcher Cox, DT, Philadelphia (22) Brandon Weeden, QB, Cleveland - 25 NFL starts
2013- (17) Jarvis Jones, LB, Pittsburgh - depth player who never broke through
Trade down wins again on the strength of Cox vs RG3. The rest is gravy.
2011- (2) Von Miller, LB, Denver
vs.
2011- (12) Christian Ponder, QB, Minnesota - 36 starts (22) Anthony Castonzo, OT, Indy - starting LT, ranked 10th in NFL by PFF
2012- (17) Dre Kirkpatrick, CB, Cincinnati - solid starting corner
Tough call here. A borderline top ten LT, a middle of the pack CB, and a QB who started 36 games but isn't much versus Von Miller. I love Von Miller, but a solid case can be made for the trade down here. I'll call it a tie.
2010- (2) Ndamukong Suh, DT, Detroit
vs.
2010- (12) Ryan Matthews, RB, San Diego - 2-time 1,000- yard rusher (22) Demaryius Thomas, WR, Denver - legit star receiver
2011- (17) Nate Solder, OT, New England - I think we get it.
This is the sort of comparison I expected when I began this exercise. Four quality players here, but no contest. Big win for trading down. Yay scouting!
2009- (2) Jason Smith, T, St. Louis - injury bust
vs.
2009- (12) Knowshon Moreno, RB, Denver - one-time 1,000- yard rusher (22) Percy Harvin, WR, Minnesota - solid receiver, amazing returner
2010- (17) Mike Iupati, G, San Francisco - four-time probowler.
No contest. Trade down.
2008- (2) Chris Long, DE, St. Louis - Over 100 starts, two 10+ sack seasons
vs.
2008- (12) Ryan Clady, OT, Denver - four-time probowl LT (22) Felix Jones, RB, Dallas - rotational RB
2009- (17) Josh Freeman, QB, Tampa Bay
This one is really Clady versus Long and I think Clady is better if you put Jones and Freeman on his side of the scale. Another win for trading down.
2007- (2) Calvin Johnson, WR, Detroit - Megatron
vs.
2007- (12) Marshawn Lynch, RB, Buffalo - Beastmode (22) Brady Quinn, QB, Cleveland - well, he won a few games.
2008- (17) Gosder Cherilus, OT, Detroit - 116 NFL starts at OT
Wow. Nice one to finish on. Megatron is the best player in this trade, the certified hall of famer, so I'd give the win to Detroit but Beastmode and over 100 starts at tackle is not bad either.
Conclusions from this thought experiment?
1) More picks is better. Lots of busts here at #2 and below. More below. But having more arrows in your quiver is a very good thing.
2) I can't believe how many misses there are. Either scouts suck or the draft really is a crapshoot. And these are all first round picks! Cleveland cannot draft quarterbacks.
3) The only quarterbacks picked at #2 overall (Wentz and Mariota) look decent so far, so you could make an argument there.
For me though, I'm all about quantity over hierarchy and this exercise confirmed my belief. Give me MORE! Trade down!
What it comes down to, is if there is a QB of value at #2, take him...
Otherwise trade down.
If the QB you draft at 2nd overall isn't a your starter by his second year and surely by his third year and on his way to being your franchise QB(Aaron Rodgers is an exception), he's a bust. He will ride you bench and contribute near zero to the team.
If the non-QB you draft at 2nd overall isn't a regular All Pro by his third year at the position you drafted him for, he can still be serviceable to the team (think Robert Gallery).
The high risk at 2nd overall is taking a QB. The medium risk at 2nd overall is drafting a non-QB, especially at a position that has "degrees of success" (e.g. drafted a 3 down RB or LB, but they are successful as a 2 down or even 1 down player). The lowest risk is the trade down.
When you're drafting in the top 3 to 5 overall, you should be drafting a future HOFer. If you trade down, you miss the chance at a Lawrence Taylor type player.
Know any? ;-)
Last year the Bills traded down instead of taking Watson or Mahomes. Now they are in a position where they need to trade up to get a QB, using the assets they got in the deal last year. It's exactly what Colin has been preaching. You don't pass up a QB when you have the chance to draft one this high. And the Giants better not pass up their shot at a franchise QB in a week, or we'll be regretting it for a long time to come. Do you think Accorsi cares one bit about the picks he gave up - including a high first round pick in 2005 - to get Eli in 2004? I doubt it. It's quality, not quantity that matters.
This decision would be much easier if these QBs grew and improved in 2017.....but unfortunately most regressed or stayed the same from 2016.
My position....a small trade down that allows us to still draft a top bluechipper while accumulating a couple of premium picks
This decision would be much easier if these QBs grew and improved in 2017.....but unfortunately most regressed or stayed the same from 2016.
My position....a small trade down that allows us to still draft a top bluechipper while accumulating a couple of premium picks
People will say that growth is non-linear... But I agree the regression or lack of growth is concerning. Especially for the underclassmen, they should be on a clear upward trajectory. Plateauing a bit after playing for 3 years is more understandable.
The only one that continued to grow, and its part of the reason I believe he is the one likely to have the best career is Mayfield. Just don't think he is a fit for NY.
Last year the Bills traded down instead of taking Watson or Mahomes. Now they are in a position where they need to trade up to get a QB, using the assets they got in the deal last year. It's exactly what Colin has been preaching. You don't pass up a QB when you have the chance to draft one this high. And the Giants better not pass up their shot at a franchise QB in a week, or we'll be regretting it for a long time to come. Do you think Accorsi cares one bit about the picks he gave up - including a high first round pick in 2005 - to get Eli in 2004? I doubt it. It's quality, not quantity that matters.
Yeah but you don't force the pick either...
That said I am by no means capable of properly evaluating these QBs... As I said above I lean towards Mayfield being the best, but I really have no clue...
If the Giants have done their homework and have a conviction on a guy and believe he represents good value at that slot, by all means got for it.
Neither Eli nor Webb should really be a consideration about the choice. Its a business.
If they don't see a QB worth it at 2, the greatest value will be achieved by trading back. Since the team has expressed that they are all in on Eli, my gut says they will trade back.
Except there may not be a Brady or Rodgers in this class. What if the upside of the best QB ends up being a Donovan McNabb, Alex Smith, or Eli Manning - a solid, long-term starter who doesn’t make the O great just by his presence even when the supporting cast is less than ideal?
Quote:
Generally speaking, the team trading down loses. Now, that may not be the case in your exercise. But the point is we are in position to draft a QB, and QBs are worth far more than any other position.
Last year the Bills traded down instead of taking Watson or Mahomes. Now they are in a position where they need to trade up to get a QB, using the assets they got in the deal last year. It's exactly what Colin has been preaching. You don't pass up a QB when you have the chance to draft one this high. And the Giants better not pass up their shot at a franchise QB in a week, or we'll be regretting it for a long time to come. Do you think Accorsi cares one bit about the picks he gave up - including a high first round pick in 2005 - to get Eli in 2004? I doubt it. It's quality, not quantity that matters.
Yeah but you don't force the pick either...
That said I am by no means capable of properly evaluating these QBs... As I said above I lean towards Mayfield being the best, but I really have no clue...
If the Giants have done their homework and have a conviction on a guy and believe he represents good value at that slot, by all means got for it.
Neither Eli nor Webb should really be a consideration about the choice. Its a business.
If they don't see a QB worth it at 2, the greatest value will be achieved by trading back. Since the team has expressed that they are all in on Eli, my gut says they will trade back.
I do agree with your comments here. Gun to my head I say Darnold or Mayfield have the least dangerous red flags as long as they are handled correctly. Anyone taking Darnold should resist the urge to start him this year. With Mayfield it requires the right scheme. You cannot just plug him into any O and expect good things. If you look how Payton protects Brees with Brees changing his throwing spot on every play, schemes to isolate favorable match-ups, etc. that will work. If you run a more stodgy O that is essentially designed to minimize turnovers I think he will struggle because he has never had to deal with tight windows and throwing his receiver open
Now an over easy no
If QB, no trade back
Otherwise consider the ransom
I'm all over the place on who - gut tells me Mayfield is the best of the bunch, but who really knows?
In comment 13919861 Giants34 said:
Last year the Bills traded down instead of taking Watson or Mahomes. Now they are in a position where they need to trade up to get a QB, using the assets they got in the deal last year. It's exactly what Colin has been preaching. You don't pass up a QB when you have the chance to draft one this high. And the Giants better not pass up their shot at a franchise QB in a week, or we'll be regretting it for a long time to come. Do you think Accorsi cares one bit about the picks he gave up - including a high first round pick in 2005 - to get Eli in 2004? I doubt it. It's quality, not quantity that matters.
And where did both of those QB's get picked - not in the top of the draft.
Last year the Bills traded down instead of taking Watson or Mahomes. Now they are in a position where they need to trade up to get a QB, using the assets they got in the deal last year. It's exactly what Colin has been preaching. You don't pass up a QB when you have the chance to draft one this high. And the Giants better not pass up their shot at a franchise QB in a week, or we'll be regretting it for a long time to come. Do you think Accorsi cares one bit about the picks he gave up - including a high first round pick in 2005 - to get Eli in 2004? I doubt it. It's quality, not quantity that matters.
Have to say that was the first thing Bill Parcells said after the season through the media that it would be wise for the Giants to take a QB.....
But that's where all the QB hype is your friend, by pushing your 'actual bests' below 4 or 5 or..displacement.
Chances are at least 1... At least 1 of those 4 qbs will bust or suffer major injury and 1 will be just OK.
So, if it's 4 qbs then the RB it's possible that the drafts actual 'best' goes somewhere after 5.
The upside of greatness outweighs the volume of picks.
It was late and I was half-cut when I wrote this so I forgot to include RG3 when considering the QBs drafted at 2 overall.
Taking him into account, it's not like you can't miss on a QB at #2 either...
Von Miller is a HOF defensive player who led a great SB defense, Amazing player.
TRADE DOWN!!! TRADE DOWN!!!
:D
Mush has spoken.
But even with a win there it's still a 6-4 win for trading down.
LOL at you
Honestly, when I set out to do this I was convinced we would see that hands down three average first round picks will easily surpass one number two most of the time.
Just put three of the top 30 players in America in any given year against one of the top 2. The drop-can't be that dramatic right? It's a no-brainer.
I don't think it's that clear cut any more. Although the only no argument hall of famer in ten years of twos was Megatron.
What blew my mind was all the busts. At two and everywhere else. I really didn't expect so many.
But even with a win there it's still a 6-4 win for trading down.
Im not sure I agree.
The 4 wins at the 2 pick were Wentz, Calvin, Von and Suh. Incredible franchise altering talents. 3 are probably gold jacket bound. Wentz is obviously too early to tell but he’s a franchise QB.
The 6 draft trade downs were “wins’ not because any of the picks really would be that franchise altering. Beckham I guess. But would be offset by the amount of busts the other picks brought. I mean yeah Odell would be great but you would be sunk by Johnny Manziel.
I’d also disagree on your Suh year comparison. I’d rather have Suh. Matthews had a couple of decent years but really wasnt very good. Solder/Thomas are very good but I’d still rather have Suh. I wouldn’t make the trade for their careers. Maybe some would but I wouldn’t
The real lesson is that the kings ransom draft trade down isnt going to build the team up and fill all these wholes that people think they do.
The better plan is to go for the franchise changing player. Looks like a 40% hit rate.
Out of the 30 “trade down” players I see about 9 that I would really want (Odell, Mosely, Cox, Castonzo, Solder, Thomas, Iupati, Harvin, Clady, Lynch) About a 30% hit rate. And one real franchise altering player.
Ill take the 40% hit rate at 2.
I’d also not the shear amount of QB busts. Manziel, Weeden, Ponder, Freeman, Quinn.
0 for 5. Huge busts.
Good argument for going QB at 2 cause getting one at mid-round even at 1st round is crap shoot.
Honestly, when I set out to do this I was convinced we would see that hands down three average first round picks will easily surpass one number two most of the time.
Just put three of the top 30 players in America in any given year against one of the top 2. The drop-can't be that dramatic right? It's a no-brainer.
I don't think it's that clear cut any more. Although the only no argument hall of famer in ten years of twos was Megatron.
What blew my mind was all the busts. At two and everywhere else. I really didn't expect so many.
No doubt. I think this is just more proof at how the draft is a crapshoot. It's really hard to predict how these kids will perform on the next level. So many things go into it and you just can't possibly know. The only thing you know is that fit, system and coaching is vital.
Honestly, when I set out to do this I was convinced we would see that hands down three average first round picks will easily surpass one number two most of the time.
Just put three of the top 30 players in America in any given year against one of the top 2. The drop-can't be that dramatic right? It's a no-brainer.
I don't think it's that clear cut any more. Although the only no argument hall of famer in ten years of twos was Megatron.
What blew my mind was all the busts. At two and everywhere else. I really didn't expect so many.
I dont agree with this either. Suh and Von are HoF caliber.
You cant say full guaranteed HOF because the HOF is based on an entire career usually about 10 years. You are only looking back 10 years. Not enough time.
Suh and Von Miller have both put up several HoF caliber seasons and the only thing holding the, back is duration of career at this point. If that
Suh is a 3X first team All-pro, 5X Pro bowler, AP Player of Year. Defensive Rookie of Year. His resume is stacked.
Von is a 3X first team all-pro. 6X pro bowler, SB MVP, defensive rookie of year. His resume is stacked.
These guys are HoFers and are sure to be on the All-Decade Teams. I dont know what you more you could ask.
2nd, just using the 2 pick vs 12, 22, 17 is a very small sample size over just 10 seasons. The 6-4 ad advantage is not statistically significant. You would need to look at all top 5 picks vs all picks 12-22 to get a truer idea of the value.
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Lol. Of course it has nothing to do with the 2018 draft. You can't draw any conclusions from this. I thought it would be interesting to have a look and see what jumped out. And it was.
Honestly, when I set out to do this I was convinced we would see that hands down three average first round picks will easily surpass one number two most of the time.
Just put three of the top 30 players in America in any given year against one of the top 2. The drop-can't be that dramatic right? It's a no-brainer.
I don't think it's that clear cut any more. Although the only no argument hall of famer in ten years of twos was Megatron.
What blew my mind was all the busts. At two and everywhere else. I really didn't expect so many.
I dont agree with this either. Suh and Von are HoF caliber.
You cant say full guaranteed HOF because the HOF is based on an entire career usually about 10 years. You are only looking back 10 years. Not enough time.
Suh and Von Miller have both put up several HoF caliber seasons and the only thing holding the, back is duration of career at this point. If that
Suh is a 3X first team All-pro, 5X Pro bowler, AP Player of Year. Defensive Rookie of Year. His resume is stacked.
Von is a 3X first team all-pro. 6X pro bowler, SB MVP, defensive rookie of year. His resume is stacked.
These guys are HoFers and are sure to be on the All-Decade Teams. I dont know what you more you could ask.
I’d take Solder and Demarius Thomas over Suh all day long, not even considering Matthews. No brainer win for the trade down. The goal is to build a quality team not acquire toys in a vacuum. A + LT and WR is much better than a ++DT.
I don't think it's fair (and this applies to the OP as well) to consider this without the context of the marginal value of who each player pushes off their respective roster. Because keeping the #2 pick doesn't mean you field a team with two fewer players, it's just two fewer players that get displaced by draft picks. At a minimum, it's #2 + two UDFAs, but it could also be #2 + two incumbent players on your roster.