at Ole Miss and during his early seasons with the Giants . They are also comparable to Phil Simms and John Elway . Allen needs to become more accurate but if he gets in the typical WCO NFL offense, his stats will be glamorized , just as they are for everybody else who is in one .
at Ole Miss and during his early seasons with the Giants . They are also comparable to Phil Simms and John Elway . Allen needs to become more accurate but if he gets in the typical WCO NFL offense, his stats will be glamorized , just as they are for everybody else who is in one .
That was over 15 years ago and in the NFL not college and high school.
Obviously the receivers at Firebaugh HS weren't any good Â
at Ole Miss and during his early seasons with the Giants . They are also comparable to Phil Simms and John Elway . Allen needs to become more accurate but if he gets in the typical WCO NFL offense, his stats will be glamorized , just as they are for everybody else who is in one .
Football was a different game when Eli was in college and he still completed 61% of his passes in college.
Using Simms & Elway is just absurd. You could mug WRs back then. Now the game is geared towards passing.
A QB going top 5 should be expected to dominate at some point in his career. He hasn't done that at all. I mean he was a 49% passer at a JUCO school. There were 58 passers. His completion % was 57 out of 58.
RE: Obviously the receivers at Firebaugh HS weren't any good Â
I don't get the love this guy. Yeah, his arm is great and he looks like a nice kid, but top 5? #1 overall? I don't see it.
I'm sure the WRs & coaching weren't any good. I can't dispute that, but how can people be so blind? It's not a year or two of being an inaccurate QB. It's 6 years of him completing less then 60% of his passes.
All I know is I pray the Browns draft him at #1. I can't see it though.
RE: RE: Obviously the receivers at Firebaugh HS weren't any good Â
I'm sure the WRs & coaching weren't any good. I can't dispute that, but how can people be so blind? It's not a year or two of being an inaccurate QB. It's 6 years of him completing less then 60% of his passes.
All I know is I pray the Browns draft him at #1. I can't see it though.
I completely agree Rick. I watched his pro day "highlights" and he struggled hitting his receivers their. The analysts were going on about is arm strength and completely ingnored the fact he strugged hitting his receivers with no one around. I'd be shocked if Browns take him at #1.
I’m all for analysizing college and even junior college stats, but when we are looking at everything including JV (which at my high school wasn’t filmed or tracked) I think it’s going a little overboard.
had a 64.3% completion rate. Went #5 overall in the draft.
Sucked balls in the NFL.
Not sure how this is relevant. Obviously not every player is going to work out. No matter how accurate he is in college, but basically every QB who was drafted in the last 10-15 years that was inaccurate in college sucked even bigger balls then Sanchez in the NFL.
had a 64.3% completion rate. Went #5 overall in the draft.
Sucked balls in the NFL.
Not sure how this is relevant. Obviously not every player is going to work out. No matter how accurate he is in college, but basically every QB who was drafted in the last 10-15 years that was inaccurate in college sucked even bigger balls then Sanchez in the NFL.
All I'm saying is that you can go back and provide examples of high first round QB draft picks with better completion rates that were busts in the NFL.
I'm not arguing that we should draft Allen. I hope Shurmur sees something in Webb that he can work with and we can start retooling the team's other needs. I'd also like to see Shurmur earn his money with Webb. However, if they draft another QB, that would be fine. They know better than me.
We have a starting QB with a less than amazing completion rating and I'm fine with him. We all watched Eli for years and know why this is. It's not all on the QB. I haven't watched a U of Wyoming game ever so I don't know who Allen is throwing to. I did listen to the beat writer covering the program on BBKL recently and he mentioned that a lot of balls "bounced off of receivers face masks". I know he was there to talk up Allen, so grain of salt and all...
Matthew Stafford had 57.1% completion rate. Went #1 overall. I'd be happy with him on the Giants.
Those are Eli’s %s
RetroJint : 6:16 am : link : reply
at Ole Miss and during his early seasons with the Giants . They are also comparable to Phil Simms and John Elway . Allen needs to become more accurate but if he gets in the typical WCO NFL offense, his stats will be glamorized , just as they are for everybody else who is in one .
This has been pointed out several times and it is false! It keeps getting rebuked. Eli's college completion % was over 60%, a figure allen has never hit!
Eli's sophomore year he was 63.5% and his senior year he was 62.4%.
Guy did an analysis and found that 58.5 CMP% and 7.3YPA in college are the minimum magic numbers equating to potential NFL success.
Covers all the players drafted in the last 20+ years and their success in the NFL vs their college stats in these two areas.
Quote:
Part V: Conclusion
Falling below one of these magic numbers is a problem. Falling below both of these magic numbers is almost a guaranteed failure rate, at least at the starter level. If you’re banking on a QB to be a successful starter, then pick anyone (literally anyone) that is above at least one of these numbers. If you’re picking said QB high in the draft, then you’re going against a lengthy and extensive history of failure. Every QB drafted since 1995 that fell below these magic numbers has not made it as a starter, and every QB drafted in the first three rounds since 1984 that fell below these numbers either didn’t make it as a starter, only had success when leaving the team that originally drafted him, or converted to punter
what if his passes, on average, are for targets 10+ yards down the field? what if he's a very aggressive passer who's not afraid to throw it downfield?
stats are helpful, but they don't tell the whole story. one of the things I noticed very early on about Eli was that he almost never checked it down. his eyes were always downfield, looking for bigger yardage. his completion percentage suffered as a result, but I always admired the approach.
i'm not saying that's the case with allen, but it could be. and if it is, it's hardly a knock on the guy, it's a plus...
team and every single offensive scheme he's been in emphasizes downfield throws??
Seems unlikely.
Nobody can say with certainty that Allen will bust. What he's doing is having to buck a shitload of history. You really want to take that risk at #2? I certainly don't.
but Allen's accuracy is more a flag than Rosen's injury history or Mayfield's attitude. I like Allen the least of the QBs. Of the 6 players we've talked about the most the past few months, Allen would be the hardest one for me to swallow/get excited about.
Like Dave Kingman HR Blam no doubter in between 3 strikeouts . Sure he can throw a bomb 70 yard in the air that most any NFL WR can run down but can't put it in a window when a guy is on the move . The shoulder has to be a concern as well . I don't like Mayfields act his arm is not above average . Rosen might be the best bet or is he Jay Cutler . Darnold seems to be a safe pick but USC QB's are not always a lock he fumbled way too much for my liking .
I just don't see us going QB
Allen is a grenade for the GM who fools himself into thinking Â
The excuse being made as to why he cant hit a throw are crazy
Ive read that he doesnt have good WRs.
Ive read his WRs drop too many passes
Ive read that the defense didnt have any high % throws in it like swing passes and screens.
Ive read he had no QB coach
On and on. Yet, he misses throws all over the place at his Pro Day. He was missing the entire net in drills as Senior Bowl.
he is another guy I just wouldn’t touch. Way too inaccurate.
Stat wise the guy who was victimized by an unusual amount of drops was Rosen. Allen just doesn't just doesn't have accuracy and it shows on short, intermediate, and long throws. And it's always been that way with him. It's not that he goes through streaks of accuracy/inaccuracy. It's not that he has issues with intermediate throws and connects on the deep/short ones. This is just what he is and what he always will be. And when he feels a bit of heat and pressure he becomes even worse. He was chased around too often and you wonder if he already has a bit of that David Carr shellshock already coming out of college.
at Ole Miss and during his early seasons with the Giants . They are also comparable to Phil Simms and John Elway . Allen needs to become more accurate but if he gets in the typical WCO NFL offense, his stats will be glamorized , just as they are for everybody else who is in one .
THAT IS NOT TRUE! Eli was a 60% passer at Ole Miss, 60.8% for his career. His worst season, his junior year at 58%, was better than any season Josh Allen has ever had. Eli’s soph and s noir years were both over 63%.
That was over 15 years ago and in the NFL not college and high school.
I don't get the love this guy. Yeah, his arm is great and he looks like a nice kid, but top 5? #1 overall? I don't see it.
Football was a different game when Eli was in college and he still completed 61% of his passes in college.
Using Simms & Elway is just absurd. You could mug WRs back then. Now the game is geared towards passing.
A QB going top 5 should be expected to dominate at some point in his career. He hasn't done that at all. I mean he was a 49% passer at a JUCO school. There were 58 passers. His completion % was 57 out of 58.
I don't get the love this guy. Yeah, his arm is great and he looks like a nice kid, but top 5? #1 overall? I don't see it.
I'm sure the WRs & coaching weren't any good. I can't dispute that, but how can people be so blind? It's not a year or two of being an inaccurate QB. It's 6 years of him completing less then 60% of his passes.
All I know is I pray the Browns draft him at #1. I can't see it though.
I'm sure the WRs & coaching weren't any good. I can't dispute that, but how can people be so blind? It's not a year or two of being an inaccurate QB. It's 6 years of him completing less then 60% of his passes.
All I know is I pray the Browns draft him at #1. I can't see it though.
I completely agree Rick. I watched his pro day "highlights" and he struggled hitting his receivers their. The analysts were going on about is arm strength and completely ingnored the fact he strugged hitting his receivers with no one around. I'd be shocked if Browns take him at #1.
I can't see them taking him, but a lot of people in the know think there is a strong possibility they take him.
He's a third round Jerry Reach prospect to me.
I’m all for analysizing college and even junior college stats, but when we are looking at everything including JV (which at my high school wasn’t filmed or tracked) I think it’s going a little overboard.
...52% passer in college.
Not sure if true.
Not sure if true.
Sucked balls in the NFL.
Sucked balls in the NFL.
Not sure how this is relevant. Obviously not every player is going to work out. No matter how accurate he is in college, but basically every QB who was drafted in the last 10-15 years that was inaccurate in college sucked even bigger balls then Sanchez in the NFL.
Quote:
had a 64.3% completion rate. Went #5 overall in the draft.
Sucked balls in the NFL.
Not sure how this is relevant. Obviously not every player is going to work out. No matter how accurate he is in college, but basically every QB who was drafted in the last 10-15 years that was inaccurate in college sucked even bigger balls then Sanchez in the NFL.
All I'm saying is that you can go back and provide examples of high first round QB draft picks with better completion rates that were busts in the NFL.
I'm not arguing that we should draft Allen. I hope Shurmur sees something in Webb that he can work with and we can start retooling the team's other needs. I'd also like to see Shurmur earn his money with Webb. However, if they draft another QB, that would be fine. They know better than me.
We have a starting QB with a less than amazing completion rating and I'm fine with him. We all watched Eli for years and know why this is. It's not all on the QB. I haven't watched a U of Wyoming game ever so I don't know who Allen is throwing to. I did listen to the beat writer covering the program on BBKL recently and he mentioned that a lot of balls "bounced off of receivers face masks". I know he was there to talk up Allen, so grain of salt and all...
Matthew Stafford had 57.1% completion rate. Went #1 overall. I'd be happy with him on the Giants.
RetroJint : 6:16 am : link : reply
at Ole Miss and during his early seasons with the Giants . They are also comparable to Phil Simms and John Elway . Allen needs to become more accurate but if he gets in the typical WCO NFL offense, his stats will be glamorized , just as they are for everybody else who is in one .
This has been pointed out several times and it is false! It keeps getting rebuked. Eli's college completion % was over 60%, a figure allen has never hit!
Eli's sophomore year he was 63.5% and his senior year he was 62.4%.
Allen has NEVER broken 60%.
Is it really that hard to see the difference?
Stafford's senior year he was a 61.4% passer. Almost two points higher than Allen has ever achieved.
Oh wait! We’re talking about the NFL combine, right?
Oh wait! We’re talking about the NFL combine, right?
Darnold didnt throw at the Combine
Ive read that he doesnt have good WRs.
Ive read his WRs drop too many passes
Ive read that the defense didnt have any high % throws in it like swing passes and screens.
Ive read he had no QB coach
On and on. Yet, he misses throws all over the place at his Pro Day. He was missing the entire net in drills as Senior Bowl.
he is another guy I just wouldn’t touch. Way too inaccurate.
Covers all the players drafted in the last 20+ years and their success in the NFL vs their college stats in these two areas.
Falling below one of these magic numbers is a problem. Falling below both of these magic numbers is almost a guaranteed failure rate, at least at the starter level. If you’re banking on a QB to be a successful starter, then pick anyone (literally anyone) that is above at least one of these numbers. If you’re picking said QB high in the draft, then you’re going against a lengthy and extensive history of failure. Every QB drafted since 1995 that fell below these magic numbers has not made it as a starter, and every QB drafted in the first three rounds since 1984 that fell below these numbers either didn’t make it as a starter, only had success when leaving the team that originally drafted him, or converted to punter
Josh Allen: 56.3% / 6.7 YPA
How do QBs who fall below the 58.5% magic number AND the 7.3 YPA magic number fare in the NFL? - ( New Window )
The best example they have since the mid-90's of a QB with poor accuracy managing to have even a decent NFL career is David Garrard.
stats are helpful, but they don't tell the whole story. one of the things I noticed very early on about Eli was that he almost never checked it down. his eyes were always downfield, looking for bigger yardage. his completion percentage suffered as a result, but I always admired the approach.
i'm not saying that's the case with allen, but it could be. and if it is, it's hardly a knock on the guy, it's a plus...
Seems unlikely.
Nobody can say with certainty that Allen will bust. What he's doing is having to buck a shitload of history. You really want to take that risk at #2? I certainly don't.
I just don't see us going QB
That now debunks the idea he only threw downfield bombs and that's why his inaccurate.
Ive read that he doesnt have good WRs.
Ive read his WRs drop too many passes
Ive read that the defense didnt have any high % throws in it like swing passes and screens.
Ive read he had no QB coach
On and on. Yet, he misses throws all over the place at his Pro Day. He was missing the entire net in drills as Senior Bowl.
he is another guy I just wouldn’t touch. Way too inaccurate.
Stat wise the guy who was victimized by an unusual amount of drops was Rosen. Allen just doesn't just doesn't have accuracy and it shows on short, intermediate, and long throws. And it's always been that way with him. It's not that he goes through streaks of accuracy/inaccuracy. It's not that he has issues with intermediate throws and connects on the deep/short ones. This is just what he is and what he always will be. And when he feels a bit of heat and pressure he becomes even worse. He was chased around too often and you wonder if he already has a bit of that David Carr shellshock already coming out of college.
THAT IS NOT TRUE! Eli was a 60% passer at Ole Miss, 60.8% for his career. His worst season, his junior year at 58%, was better than any season Josh Allen has ever had. Eli’s soph and s noir years were both over 63%.
It isn’t that hard to look this shit up.