Okay, this thread should be not for arguing AGAINST any player. Please don't do that here.
Instead, explain why you think the Giants WILL take a particular player first. If you would do differently you can state that as well.
I'll go first:
Why the Giants will be taking ROSEN first:
1. QB value is so much higher than any other position and the team understands the draft is about getting value out of every pick. In an almost Freudian slip DG gave an answer exclusive to picking a QB when asked about the second pick. Read this:
Q: How important is this pick to the future of this franchise?
A: Well, when you’re picking this high, if you make a mistake, you’re done. We talk that when you miss on a quarterback, you really hurt the franchise for probably five years. It’s a five-year mistake. Yeah, it’s a big decision, but as long as you’ve done your homework and turned all the rocks over, you will come to the right answer. You ask the right questions and you will get the right answers.
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This was at the beginning of the press conference, before he was asked the questions later on about positional players. He was simply asked about the importance of the number two pick and he responded as though it was an implied question about QB's. Think about that.
2. Lots of work done on Rosen, including (but not limited to) the now-not-so-secret dinner with him where Mara flew across the country. Surprisingly a lot of BBI discounts what this means. It's not like we have heard of ownership doing this with every top player. They must have been pleased with the dinner too because they went ahead and gave him one of their 30 in-house visits as well after it. Not likely to have done that if he wasn't still highly rated on their board. Also, Rosen seems to be the best "in-the-pocket passer" of the bunch, and there's always what DG has said about QB's:
| At the end of the day, I don’t care what kind of quarterback you are, I don’t care who you play for, if you can’t make plays from the pocket, then you can’t win. You can’t win. You’ve got to be able to make plays from the pocket. |
All the rest of the noise heard right now is exactly that - noise. We've been told forever to expect misdirection in what leaks. The buzz building that it's Darnold & Barkley at the top of their board could be exactly that - misdirection.
Again - please don't argue with my reasoning. Instead - lay out your own reasons for why you think someone else will clearly be the pick.
IMO a lot depends upon whom Cleveland takes first. After that, we could trade down, Take Barkley, or take a QB we're high on. I think the odds are equal for those three, with Chubb being a distant 4th option.
or
Barkley because Cleveland took Darnold.
He's never drafted one very high.
I’m going to turn the question on you. My mother told me that it was never polite to answer a question with a question, but I’m going to do it anyway. If you think about all the quarterbacks that you’ve seen, who of them have made everybody better? That’s what you’re looking for. Does he make everybody around him better? That’s what you’re looking for.
The obvious is the physical ability to do it, but it’s beyond that. It’s the leadership. It’s knowing how to rally the troops. It’s gotta be smarts. Head coach is a CEO, I gotta be a CEO, to a certain degree the quarterback’s gotta be a CEO. Put it in relatable terms — he’s gotta be a guy that if there’s a burning building and he says, “Let’s go,” he gets trampled.
Who doesn’t want Cam Newton? Who doesn’t want that size prototype? You know, 6-[foot]-5, 245 [pounds], run a 4.5 [40-yard dash] — who the heck doesn’t want that? With the shorter guys — [Drew] Brees, Russell Wilson — their ability to slide and find the passing lane, that allows them to overcome the height issue. When you’re playing those guys, what you want to do is get inside pressure immediately, to not allow them to step up. Who doesn’t want a guy who’s a little bigger? It’s more about does he have the “it” factor? Is he a winner? Just because they go to the next level, it doesn’t necessarily stop. Some people are just winners.
“Thinking that you’re one player away is as bad as reaching for a guy, it really is, because you’re more than one player away because that one player that you get, what happens if he gets hurt and you’ve traded away three draft picks?”
Quote:
I’m going to turn the question on you. My mother told me that it was never polite to answer a question with a question, but I’m going to do it anyway. If you think about all the quarterbacks that you’ve seen, who of them have made everybody better? That’s what you’re looking for. Does he make everybody around him better? That’s what you’re looking for.
The obvious is the physical ability to do it, but it’s beyond that. It’s the leadership. It’s knowing how to rally the troops. It’s gotta be smarts. Head coach is a CEO, I gotta be a CEO, to a certain degree the quarterback’s gotta be a CEO. Put it in relatable terms — he’s gotta be a guy that if there’s a burning building and he says, “Let’s go,” he gets trampled.
Who doesn’t want Cam Newton? Who doesn’t want that size prototype? You know, 6-[foot]-5, 245 [pounds], run a 4.5 [40-yard dash] — who the heck doesn’t want that? With the shorter guys — [Drew] Brees, Russell Wilson — their ability to slide and find the passing lane, that allows them to overcome the height issue. When you’re playing those guys, what you want to do is get inside pressure immediately, to not allow them to step up. Who doesn’t want a guy who’s a little bigger? It’s more about does he have the “it” factor? Is he a winner? Just because they go to the next level, it doesn’t necessarily stop. Some people are just winners.
“Thinking that you’re one player away is as bad as reaching for a guy, it really is, because you’re more than one player away because that one player that you get, what happens if he gets hurt and you’ve traded away three draft picks?”
Except Darnold is highly likely going to the Browns at 1.
What about football IQ, experience running a pro-style system under center, reading defenses, quickly processing his reads and making decisions? Well he's the best among this years QB candidates in these important aspects as well.
But his college coach said he displays 'millennial' characteristics and that he needs coaches who can 'challenge him intellectually' ... Since when is this is a bad thing? In Sy's review he noted that Rosen has a very high football IQ and as a 21 year old is already more knowledgeable of the game than many NFL professionals. A football savant is not a bad thing to have as a QB.
Our new head coach is a 'QB whisperer' and, before the season started, was not considered a HC candidate this year - his stock rose based on his work w/ Case Keenum. Also, prior to Shula's hire, our HC specified that a prerequisite for the OC position was experience working with QBs..
Could be nothing, but I couldn't help but notice the candid grin on Shula's face in his recent press conference when asked about attending Darnold and Rosen's pro days. Seemed like a little kid on Christmas day..
Finally, I can't help but think that he has that 'it' factor, as Ernie Acorsi highlighted in his scouting report of Eli that he described in his book.
I agree. Rather it be Barkley over Chubb if we are staying at 2.
"In terms of team building, I’m old fashioned. Offense scores points. Defense wins championships. There’s been six matchups, I believe, in the Super Bowl of No. 1 offenses versus No. 1 defenses, and the defenses have won five of the six. So I truly believe in that. I’m going to say this right now. Style of offense has changed, obviously - there’s that college influence, so obviously the style of defense has changed to a certain degree. But at the end of the day, it’s the same three things you’ve had to do in ’35 that you got to do now in 2018. You got to run the ball. You got to stop the run. You got to pressure the passer. Everywhere I’ve been and with the great teams that I’ve been associated with – those were three very big staples."
From an article in the post in late January:
"Gettleman knows all the Giants scouts, so this will be more indoctrination than introduction; what is presented to them will be eye-opening. Under Reese and Ross, the Giants were often drawn to height-weight-speed prospects who too frequently went bust rather than boom. It is believed Gettleman will bring the emphasis back to production on the field — stressing passion, desire and mechanics rather than raw talent."
During Gettlemen's time in Carolina he took two defensive lineman in the first round and two in the second round. He repeatedly says he believes in building from the inside out. He wants guys who hate to lose, leaders, guys who give 100% effort 100% of the time. He values on-field production more than measurables and what they do at the combine.
All of that leads me to believe that the pick is... Bradley Chubb.
Garafalo has Chubb to the Giants and said that he blew them away on his visit. JonC has indicated that they love Chubb as has hitdog (to be clear, neither said he was the pick or the target just that they like him a lot). Raanan wrote a piece yesterday about the Giants love for Bradley Chubb and warned not to rule him out at 2. He likely heard something after his original list of most likely picks and wrote that piece as a result of that. All signs pointing to Chubb.
QB is the one other possibility that I see. I love Barkley but it doesn't seem likely to me. During his predraft press conference he cut off a reporter that said that he called Christian McCaffrey a no-brainer to say "for us, at that time". That was a tell for me that he doesn't think a guy like Barkley is the right player for the Giants at this time. Just my $.02 and I'd be happy to be wrong.
By all accounts, Rosen was the most advanced QB on the white board and blew teams away. As to personality, it could be misdirection, but John Mara flew across the country to go to dinner with him, so the people who met him at the Combine either said "this guy is great but we have real concerns about his personality, so maybe the owner should meet him to see if he's comfortable with having him be the face of the franchise" OR "this guy is great and we really like him, please confirm that you think he can be the face of the franchise."
Although there are often wild swings in opinion and rumors throughout the pre-draft process from January through April, at the end of the day, the top of the QB board usually ends up right where it was at the end of the season. Every once in a while, a QB shoots high up the draft board with a great combine and pro day, and more often than not, that guy ends up being a bust.
At the end of the day, there is little dispute that he's the best pure passer in the draft. He's not a great athlete and can't make many plays outside the pocket, but neither could most of the greats. And the guys who do are at even higher risk of injury.
Finally, one of the greatest indicators of success for a highly drafted QB is how much game experience he has in college. Other than Baker Mayfield, Rosen has the most. He has the most film to dissect, he's consistently looked the part and he has consistently improved each year.
If Darnold had stayed in college another year, maybe he'd be on par. Seems like he would have benefited a lot from that. All that said though, Darnold has more of the Eli-like personality that Mara may prefer. I could see them not loving Rosen doing all these pre-draft interviews and already promoting his Old Spice endorsements before he's even drafted.
Lots of good comments on who people want and why. Would love to see more specifics on why we should expect Barkley to be the pick based on quotes, etc.
For the record, my ideal scenario is that the team feels that Webb is the answer and trades back, getting a few extra picks and selecting Barkley at four. I don't see that happening though.
Because the draft is three days long and you don't wanna be caught in the can.
JonC - I assume you mean through your back channels, because I know you've read about his visits, interviews, and of course the dinner in CA.
I guess you'll agree that if Rosen is the pick that the Giants have done a masterful job of hiding their interest.
Not to miller my own thread but if Chubb is the pick I'd really prefer they trade down - even a spot or two to pick up anything they can. They should feel confident that any trade partners will be seeking QB (except the Browns) meaning the position players would not be coming off the board before pick #4. Why not get an extra pick if they can, even if it's just a single 3rd rounder or something? I know DG said you can't get too cute, but if you're passing on QB at this point trading down from 2 for any picks to 3 or 4 would be a net positive.
Anyway - thanks for sharing your insights!