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Why I do not think Barkley (or Chubb) is the target at #2

PerpetualNervousness : 4/25/2018 12:39 pm
I tried to make this point yesterday, and totally botched it. So i'm going to try to be a little clearer this time.

I think the Giants have been very strategic about the information they've put out there about the draft and their targets, and I think it does suggest that they have a pretty clear preferred outcome - to trade the pick.

Why? As everyone recognizes, this is a very unusual draft for a number of reasons - that Cleveland holds both #1 and #4, that there is no consensus hierarchy of the QBs, that the best player in the draft is likely a RB, which is increasingly a devalued position, etc. It has put the Giants in a unique position - even though they hold the #2 pick, they could pretty easily manipulate what the Browns are going to do with the #1 pick. If the Giants strong internal preference is for Barkley, or for Chubb, then the way to ensure that he is available at #2 would have been to make everyone believe that in fact, their actual preference, was for a QB, while suggesting they were not sure which QB it would be. Under those circumstances, the Browns would have no choice but to draft a QB. They already know the Jets are going QB. If they believe the Giants are going QB as well, then 1) however highly rated they have one of the position players, they can't take the risk they'll end up with their 3rd choice quarterback, and 2) they'd get the position player anyway. Voila - Cleveland takes a QB, and whatever position player the Giants want is sitting there at #2. It's not rocket science, and it's the sort of disinformation teams put out there all the time.

This is obviously not what the Giants have done. You could make a case that they've done more of the opposite, floating that they really like Chubb and Barkley. If you think they plan is to take a QB at #2, or you want them to, then this would be the play to give you some hope. If the Browns really have one of these guys rated above all the QBs, maybe they can be pushed into doing that at #1, figuring they can either swing a deal with the Jets, or live with whichever qb comes to them at 4. The the Giants would have the pick of any QB in the draft.

But the Giants haven't really done that either. They've basically communicated that they're interested in 7 players at least. I know that the conventional wisdom is that DG is doing this because in 2016 the Giants got screwed when Reese let his interest in Floyd and Conklin get out of the bag, and got stuck with Apple, so by being vague, his protecting against someone jumping ahead of him. But of course, there's only one team ahead of him, not many, and in letting the Browns think he may take a whole of bunch of different players, he's pretty much forfeiting any chance he has of influencing their pick, not guaranteeing himself anything. If the Browns think they know what the Giants are doing, then there's the possibility they factor it into their decision making. If on the other hand they think the Giants could do any number of things, then it's not going to influence them one way or the other. They'll just make their pick and wait to see what happens at 2 like everybody else.

The Giants strategy of implying they like everybody does make sense, however, if their goal is not to influence the team picking ahead of them, but to influence the teams picking behind them. Any team that has an overwhelming interest in one of the QBs plus Barkley, Chubb and Nelson can reasonably believe at this point that the Giants might take them, and has a pretty strong incentive to try to move up to the #2.

I'm not saying a trade will happen - the Giants still need to believe a trade provides them sufficient value. But if I were betting on the outcome of Thursday night, that's where I would put my money.


Its a good thought...  
bLiTz 2k : 4/25/2018 1:03 pm : link
..however what I really believe is happening is that reporters are running way too far on what Gettleman's commentary has been thus far.

I dont see the perceived notion that "NYG doesnt like the QBs" as everyone else does. Gettleman and the Giants have basically said a whole lot of nothing, and every reporter is painting a certain picture of who they would like with no real information to back it up.

Its actually been a very refreshing game to follow as a fan, after what feels like the last regime telegraphing their preferences at every juncture.
Good thinking  
GeorgeAdams33 : 4/25/2018 1:34 pm : link
Great post
I basioha e no idea what happens at #2  
Dan Blue : 4/25/2018 7:22 pm : link
But I wouldn’t really out anything as of now. All the talk that the Giants are taking Barkley makes me think that they won’t . Yes you can get a more than an average RB in the next three rounds but we’re talking value and the Giants have lots of holes to fill. I’m going to guess that there’s high likelihood that they trade #2.

This years draft and next years draft will be the building blocks for the next several years. This is why I just don’t see the Giants taking a RB at #2. Just seems like too big of a risk for a historically conservative franchise.
While your point might be clearer,  
Diver_Down : 4/25/2018 7:26 pm : link
do you have a CliffsNotes version for us of the TL;DR segment of BBI?
What evidence do you have that the Giants have put out any  
baadbill : 4/25/2018 8:43 pm : link
information of any type?
I heard Saquon  
Joey in VA : 4/25/2018 8:44 pm : link
Is the pick if the Browns go Darnold. Reasons be damned but that's what I was told.
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