NFT: Mets at Cardinals Game 3. Battle of the aces for the series

And Nimmo is getting a start.

We need Thor to go 7 minimum. No more of this 4-5 inning bullshit from the starters. The pen needs a break.

LGM

average in IP from our starters.

Some other early numbers from pitchers around the league:


Chris Archer 6.59 ERA, 1.46 WHIP, 9.5 K/9
Mike Leake 6.59 ERA 1.610 WHIP, 5.3 K/9
Luis Castillo 6.51 ERA 1.446 WHIP, 7.8 K/9
Jose Urena 5.88 ERA, 1.385 WHIP, 7.3 K/9
Jon Gray 5.79 ERA, 1.469 WHIP, 9.6 K/9
Clayton Richard 5.67 ERA, 1.630 WHIP, 7.3 K/9
James Paxton 5.61 ERA, 1.442 WHIP, 11.9 K/9
Matt Moore 5.55 ERA, 1.726 WHIP, 6.3 K/9
Danny Duffy 5.26 ERA, 1.519 WHIP, 8.8 K/9

I�m willing to give them to almost Memorial Day. I fully expected them to struggle early and to be working on things. Stuff wise I�ve actually liked what I�ve seen. Obviously, the results need to be there as well but they get some more rope from me.

I�m interested to see what happens when Swarak returns. There isn�t enough room for everyone. The 8 becomes Familia, Swarzak, Gsellman, Lugo, Sewald, Ramos, Harvey, Blevins. Who do you demote? Does that open the door for Lugo to re-join the rotation for example?

As fragile as they come. And Thor needs to pick it up.

Was so down last night (was hitting 95 in ST) but kudos to him for completely saving our pen for today. I liked what I saw. He could possibly spot start here and there if we got caught in a jam this year.

Matz' stuff seems fine. It's the way he beats himself up on the mound and loses his composure so easily. He needs to stop getting rattled when things don't go his way and bear down. Otherwise this is going to keep happening.

Matz hasn't made it through 6 innings in like 12 straight starts now - whatever the league averages say, you can't have a pitcher doing that.

Wheeler started off great in Miami but it seems like the next two starts were progressively worse and he's reverting to the same guy he was before. The Marlins suck so I need to see Wheeler get good results against a better lineup before I feel confident about him either.

In comment 13933462 Chris684 said:

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As fragile as they come. And Thor needs to pick it up.

Agreed, Matz is as fragile as they come, he makes a throwing error then completely unravels, pathetic! I don't know how long they can keep trotting this guy out there hoping he gets better...he's not getting any better.

In comment 13933492 arcarsenal said:

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Matz' stuff seems fine. It's the way he beats himself up on the mound and loses his composure so easily. He needs to stop getting rattled when things don't go his way and bear down. Otherwise this is going to keep happening. Matz hasn't made it through 6 innings in like 12 straight starts now - whatever the league averages say, you can't have a pitcher doing that. Wheeler started off great in Miami but it seems like the next two starts were progressively worse and he's reverting to the same guy he was before. The Marlins suck so I need to see Wheeler get good results against a better lineup before I feel confident about him either.

Not disagreeing with any of that. These guys arent prospects though. The biggest question heading in with them was health and how good their stuff would look. We�ve seen sustained success from them before. Assuming they are healthy, I think we�d all sign up for Wheeler�s 2014 and Matz�s 2016 from the backend which is why they get more rope for me. Hell, Kershaw leads the league in losses right now. What happens in April isn�t necessarily a predicate of future results. Obviously, we need to see more.

On top of not getting much offense from a streaky OF (that should change) we aren�t getting much O from 1B, SS, and C. We are going to have to make some changes if that continues.

Kershaw leading the league in losses only tells me he's not getting run support.

He's still averaging over 6 IP per start and has a 2.84 ERA. He's not exactly struggling.

In comment 13933559 arcarsenal said:

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Kershaw leading the league in losses only tells me he's not getting run support. He's still averaging over 6 IP per start and has a 2.84 ERA. He's not exactly struggling.

Wasn�t saying he was. Just pointing out face value stats in April don�t mean much. What you memtioned backs that up.

But I still think there is a major false perception on what a SP should give in terms of innings pitched in today�s game. There wasn�t a single starter in baseball last year that averaged 7 IP. The �horses� around the league will give you between 6-7. Sherzer is a freak and he was at 6.45 last year. A lot of money is being spent on relievers in 2018 and it looks like we are seeing a push for multi inning relievers now. Not saying it�s for the better or not but that�s the reality in which we now live.

Right - but there's a difference between not being able to get out of the 5th inning on a regular basis and just having poor run support. Kershaw isn't pitching poorly - Matz is.

5.45 FIP is ugly.

In comment 13933610 arcarsenal said:

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Right - but there's a difference between not being able to get out of the 5th inning on a regular basis and just having poor run support. Kershaw isn't pitching poorly - Matz is. 5.45 FIP is ugly.

I am not comparing Matz to Kershaw one single bit. I was showing that stats can be screwy in April. I�ve said multiple times the results have not been there for Matz but I�ve been encouraged by the way his stuff looks. That�s all. Clearly Matz needs better results or he�s gone.

has sufficiently cooled him off. What I don't get is putting him in for Conforto over Bruce. What is it about Bruce that Mickey loves so much? I feel like every move the make is contingent on how much money the player makes.

It�s stats over the course of their career. You honestly think Wheeler is all of the sudden going to pitch well when he has really never done that? Matz has now been borderline brutal for 20 starts. I am willing to give them one more turn trough rotation but after that I think you need to demote one and put Lugo in there. We just can�t survive back to back 4ip games every week.

In comment 13933724 bhill410 said:

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It�s stats over the course of their career. You honestly think Wheeler is all of the sudden going to pitch well when he has really never done that? Matz has now been borderline brutal for 20 starts. I am willing to give them one more turn trough rotation but after that I think you need to demote one and put Lugo in there. We just can�t survive back to back 4ip games every week.

Again.. I�ve already brought up years where they�ve been successful. You can�t go back to last year when Matz was pitching with a displaced nerve. Even DeGrom was a disaster when he was dealing with the same thing. The last real, healthy body of work for either of them was 2014 for Wheeler and 2016 for Matz. Both put up 3fWAR seasons which we all would do cartwheels over if we got that this year. As long as the stuff has returned and they are healthy why can�t they pitch like that again? It�s not like Harvey where his velocity is down 6 mph and he can�t strike a single hitter out. They are completely different.

is currently 10th out of 30 teams in ERA and WAR. The entire pitching staff combined is also roughly top third.

In comment 13933800 ZGiants98 said:

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is currently 10th out of 30 teams in ERA and WAR. The entire pitching staff combined is also roughly top third.

So, do stats in April mean something or not? Before you said they didn't, now you're citing them.

Gotta pick one, bud.

(but the pitching isn't far behind). Making decisions like resting Conforto over Bruce is confusing. Mickey is not inspiring much confidence post 12-1.

All Brandon Nimmo does is get on base and score runs.

He needs to play.

Ces looks like he's slowly coming to life.

Fail again to get a SF with the runner at third and less than 2 outs.

In comment 13933819 arcarsenal said:

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In comment 13933800 ZGiants98 said: Quote: is currently 10th out of 30 teams in ERA and WAR. The entire pitching staff combined is also roughly top third. So, do stats in April mean something or not? Before you said they didn't, now you're citing them. Gotta pick one, bud.

Stats in April do not matter and are often skewed but for those worried that the sky is falling, it�s clearly not as we�ve been performing in the top third either way.

.

overall stats are still benefiting from the 12-1 start where our pitching was good (not great) and our bullpen was other-worldly. I do wonder where we would fit in the 3-6 time-frame after that good start?

So, saying that we are a top third team right now is a bit disingenuous. Clearly, we are not.

Thor has absolutely fantastic stuff today. A+ stuff.

is +9, which equates out to an expected 12-10 record. Mets have played a tough schedule so far, but have benefited by having Thor and DeGrom start a MUCH larger percentage of games than they'll be able to do for us throughout the year.

The good news is that we're not playing to win the baseball prospectus/fangraphs championships, and our wins all count. But, I don't think it's unfair to say that the team has benefited from some good luck (relative to overall performance) so far, and that we'll need to play "better" going forward to "win" a really tough division.

I'm pretty happy with how things have started, but also still looking at things critically and what has to get better for this team to bring a third trophy home to queens.

are legit top 10 MLB pitchers. Having these guys on the roster making peanuts is a great situation to be in.

Rolling. Will one run be enough?

That's 3 batters Martinez has hit now.

He's not doing it on purpose... but...

In comment 13934137 ZGiants98 said:

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Rolling. Will one run be enough?

His pitch count is in solid shape.

In comment 13934156 Metnut said:

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In comment 13934137 ZGiants98 said: Quote: Rolling. Will one run be enough? His pitch count is in solid shape.

Either way asking him to only surrender 1 run over 9 is a lot. We need some insurance runs. I do hope Thor goes 9 today though.

In comment 13934043 Rob in Rockaway said:

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.

Oh, it will happen. More than once.

Get the SF here. Jeesh

Yo!

That 2nd run might be all we need.

I want to see Thor finish this himself. The PC is fine.

Awesome.

Guess I spoke too soon. :/

CEO�s SHOULD have made that catch. And Ozuna with a cheap hit. A run in and inning still going.

Guess we will need Familia today after all.

Paul DeJong... of course.

Yuck.

Should still be able to go from Thor > Familia

What the fuck is wrong with our fielders. So many errors. Rosario has to make that play.

Second worst D in the league at the moment.

the team could hit a lick. It's embarrassing.

Noah and Jake must be thrilled.

No matter how well they pitch, they can't get wins.

Oh well. Jerys would have blown it anyway

would ever want to play for the Mets. This has been going on for years and doesn't look any different this year.

Pitching for the Mets only guarantees you Tommy John surgery and losses.

To get a SF, is going to cost them a win

up the lead, but this is a tie game on the road versus a playoff contender. Let's get the W. Ugly wins still count.

Great AB, Fraze.

Gotta get Bruce home.

not worth pitching to AGon. Is there anyone who can pH?

Lobaton... LOL. Forget it.

In comment 13934514 arcarsenal said:

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Lobaton... LOL. Forget it.

someone needs to tell him to lean into one.

Maybe we'll get lucky and Gregerson will throw two more balls before he gets a strike over where Lobaton will get himself out

LOL.. how do you walk Lobaton?!?

that might be the biggest gift we get all year.

So Familia isn�t the only closer in baseball to blow a game? Walk Lobaton? Seriously?

Jose, get some insurance runs to save my blood pressure for a day.

I thought that was a huge mistake.

Lobaton sure seems to draw an inordinate number of walks

Reyes is terrible. LOL.

Alright 27 - finish it up.

and solid series win if they can close it out.

2 down. 1 to go.

Tommy Pham, Kolten Wong or DeJong again it will be too soon.

Jose Martinez has been a pain in the fucking ass too. Hope we can get him here.

Of course not.

Lagares should have caught that.

Familia has been disappointing

This Cardinals team is brutal.

In comment 13934587 spike said:

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Familia has been disappointing

Same for Lagares

I've had my fill of this type of misery with the last 2 deGrom outings.

I don't need to watch another one today.

Damn it Jeurys.

Lagares is a plus defender - he needs to catch that ball. He's made tougher catches than that 50 times.

But I know this thread is going to turn into a Famila hate fest again and no one will say a word about the shitty defense.

can't play defense he has very little value.

that was misplayed.

In comment 13934604 arcarsenal said:

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Lagares is a plus defender - he needs to catch that ball. He's made tougher catches than that 50 times. But I know this thread is going to turn into a Famila hate fest again and no one will say a word about the shitty defense.

Or the fact that we are 0 for 7 with RISP and have left 11 men on base

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In comment 13934623 Mike in NY said:

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In comment 13934604 arcarsenal said: Quote: Lagares is a plus defender - he needs to catch that ball. He's made tougher catches than that 50 times. But I know this thread is going to turn into a Famila hate fest again and no one will say a word about the shitty defense. Or the fact that we are 0 for 7 with RISP and have left 11 men on base

Yep. Abysmal situational hitting.

but people refer to him as elite and three blown saves in a month does not equal elite to me. He is better than anything else we have had since wagner and he was scary himself at times. Any closer in NY is going to be held to an unfair level because of Mariano for all those years, but we should not inflate his production when he is zipping sliders around and looking awesome because he does have his hiccups.

closer but not elite. His K% and FIP are a notch worse than the best guys in MLB and always have been.

Still, if we lose today it's not his fault. Past two blown saves by him have been a single run given up and a defensive play or two could've saved the run from scoring.

one where you felt they would find a way to win, to one where you feel they will find a way to lose.

the 50-50 plays were all going their way the first few weeks, now many are going against them. The BP was perfect for a few weeks, now it's shown a few cracks.

The blame is shared all the way around the roster. Defensive miscues have been a constant for years, but today those miscues came from 2 of their best defensive players (Lagares and Rosario) so it's hard to point to anything other than lack of execution.

I guess that's the bottomline - they need to execute. Relievers need to stop walking people. Defenders need to stop making mistakes. Starters need to give the team a chance to win. Hitters need to deliver with men on. This team isn't a finished product and it has a lot more potential than the previous year's iterations because it's more balanced. But balance alone won't win games - some of those facets of the team need to execute better than other team to win a game. We've seen flashes across the board but has a single facet of the team been consistently strong all year (SP, RP, hitting, defense)?

In comment 13934668 bhill410 said:

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but people refer to him as elite and three blown saves in a month does not equal elite to me. He is better than anything else we have had since wagner and he was scary himself at times. Any closer in NY is going to be held to an unfair level because of Mariano for all those years, but we should not inflate his production when he is zipping sliders around and looking awesome because he does have his hiccups.

Elite.. not elite.. who cares. He's good. He's been good. And there are a lot of teams in baseball who don't have an option nearly as good as him.

The Cardinals themselves just shelled out like 15M for Greg Holland but still have Bud Norris closing games because they haven't been able to get someone to nail that spot down for them lately. They've had a billion guys close for them in recent years... Salas, Motte, Rosenthal, Oh, etc.

We should have won this game today.

he "had no shot" at that ball.

I think he deserves the benefit of the doubt, but sure looked on TV like he misplayed it. Seemed like he thought he was closer to the wall than he was and in addition miss timed his jump.