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Giants haven’t been this satisfied with a draft in a....

GFAN52 : 5/3/2018 6:25 pm
long time.

Quote:
The Giants got their man in the NFL draft. Indeed, all roads led to Saquon Barkley. Still, there was intrigue involved in this long, detailed evaluation process. Here is what The Post learned before, during and especially after all the picks were in:

Crushed it: As Dave Gettleman so profoundly put it, no team (at least publicly) finishes up the draft, scans the piece of paper listing all its picks and says, “We just drafted crap.’’ Each year brings about a different sensibility, though. Relief. Accomplishment. Satisfaction. Rarely have the Giants been this thrilled — “ecstatic’’ is the word one insider used — to get one specific player as the Giants were and are to land Saquon Barkley. The last time the room felt so energized to get a player in the first round of a draft? Jeremy Shockey in 2002.

Quarterback was never an option: It is not as if the Giants viewed this quarterback class as trash. They liked three of them — Baker Mayfield was not in the discussion very long — a great deal but in order to justify the No. 2 overall pick, there had to be love, of which there was none. Most troubling, and telling, was there was no true consensus among the Giants coaches, scouts and front office as to the pecking order. Some liked Sam Darnold best. Others liked Josh Allen best. Darnold, Allen. Allen, Darnold. Around and around it went, and then, a little Josh Rosen sprinkled in. What does that tell you?

Pat’s pick: If Barkley was gone, defensive end Bradley Chubb would have been the pick. The assumption that if the Giants were adamant about taking a quarterback it would have been Darnold is faulty. In fact, Pat Shurmur preferred Allen, believing he has the most upside. This is surprising, based on his assessment of why he likes Kyle Lauletta, the fourth-round selection. “Really, arm strength is about fourth on the list,’’ Shurmur said. “You have to be a good decision-maker, you have to have a sense of timing and you have to throw an accurate ball.’’ Allen, the gunslinger out of Wyoming, has the strongest arm and displayed the worst accuracy of the top prospects. This is further evidence Shurmur does not project greatness out of this group.

Grading game: To state the Giants are smitten with Barkley is an understatement. To say they graded him top in this draft class is inaccurate. When the evaluation process was complete, the Giants assigned the same grade to Barkley and Chubb. On the draft board, though, Barkley was stacked ahead of Chubb.

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RE: Final draft tier analytics  
Big_Blue_in_the_Bronx : 5/4/2018 6:53 am : link
In comment 13953773 Wazzat said:
Quote:
for a player seems to be the product of three factors:
a. future performance grade
b. position value
c. need value (ie how soon could the player start?)

Based on salaries alone there is little doubt that an ER position is worth at least 1.3 times a RB.

The Giants current need value of a RB over a ER is about the same -- ie a very good player will likely start immediately at both positions for the Giants in 2018.

Conclusion: Barkley's performance grade would need to be 1.3 times greater than a top edge rusher for his draft tier value to be greater.

DG obviously says it was.
Based on Sy's performance rating of 94 for Barkley, Chubb would have had to have a performance rating of 72 or less to put Barkley higher on the draft tier.

Chubb was rated much higher than 72. So it is likely that DG probably made the wrong choice based on analytics alone.


The flaw in your decision matrix is your multiplier. Barkley can not be graded as a pure RB which is what the driver of that salary scale is. Since most RBs arent elite pass catchers and special teams aces, the salary doesnt do him justice. He has to looked at as an offensive weapon more on line with top WRs.

Lawrence Taylor is at a lower average salary position at LB. But you better bet of there was an LT his draft he is going in the top few picks. Why? He does things that very few LBs can do including elite pass rush.
Analytics are stupid  
Bill L : 5/4/2018 7:28 am : link
and likely worthless

if you have to fit some vague "needs are about the same" term into an equation.

Basically, you can fudge anything and that just ain't math.
I guess one issue I have with the Barkley/Chubb comparison  
Bill L : 5/4/2018 7:33 am : link
(actually more than one)

is that besides the earlier excellent point that Chubb does pretty much one thing with excellence whereas Barkley rushes with excellence, blocks with excellence, catches with WR excellence and basically should count as 3 different players...

is that people describe Barkley as being the best RB to come out since..pretty much in recent memory..and comp him to all-time greats.

OTOH, I have heard Chubb is the best this year.

I've never heard anyone say he's better or speak of him in the same breath as even some of the recent top DE's.

Name some recent guys, name some all-time great pass rushers...how do you feel Chubb compares?
On the "needs" part  
Bill L : 5/4/2018 7:35 am : link
you can never have too many pass rushers. And, we lost JPP.

However, the comparison should be the net between Barkley and Gallman/Perkins versus the net between Chubb and Vernon.
You take a 4-3 DE  
bc4life : 5/4/2018 7:40 am : link
over Barkley to play him in 3-4 defense?
RE: You take a 4-3 DE  
Beer Man : 5/4/2018 7:46 am : link
In comment 13953816 bc4life said:
Quote:
over Barkley to play him in 3-4 defense?
+1. Every team has its grading scheme/criteria. I wouldn't be surprised if "fits the scheme" is one of them for the Giants
If article has basis, me thinks Dave and Pat don't value  
Jimmy Googs : 5/4/2018 8:07 am : link
the quarterback position all that much...

RE: BBI was so sure  
Gatorade Dunk : 5/4/2018 8:14 am : link
In comment 13953663 SHO'NUFF said:
Quote:
they were looking at QB

It's a fact that they spent considerable time/resources scouting the QBs. So, by definition, they absolutely were looking at QB. Clearly, none of the QBs came close to Barkley on their board, but it wasn't for lack of scouting.
Shurmur picked up the tab?  
jeff57 : 5/4/2018 8:18 am : link
No wonder they like him so much.
Beer Man  
Wazzat : 5/4/2018 8:19 am : link
Excellent point re a 4-3 end fitting into a 3-4 scheme.

That should be reflected in the player's future performance ranking.
Ie Chubb's performance rating as a 3-4 OLB could well have been discounted to below 72.

Or as you suggest a separate 4th factor needs to be inserted to produce a draft tier rating: fit with the cuurent scheme.
It rings true  
jeff57 : 5/4/2018 8:19 am : link
The only surprise is the part about Carter starting. Happy to see that.
RE: If article has basis, me thinks Dave and Pat don't value  
Dodge : 5/4/2018 8:24 am : link
In comment 13953841 Jimmy Googs said:
Quote:
the quarterback position all that much...


This is an idiotic statement.
Bill L  
Wazzat : 5/4/2018 8:28 am : link
Re the needs part -- the added value is vs the guy the player would replace.
And when.

For example in need rating say a Qb say Rosen: for need you would look at the value replacing Eli in say 2020 ie a need factor of say 0.8. If you thought Eli needed to be replaced now, the need factor would be say 1.0.

Another example: say you had a bad nickel CB, say Gay. You needed only an avg CB to replace him. That would make the need factor 1.0.

etc.
Bill L  
Wazzat : 5/4/2018 8:33 am : link
Re analytics are stupid, ie the needs part.
That goes into your decision implicitly anyway,
Analytics just forces you to be explicit and see the consequences.
RE: On the  
Spyder : 5/4/2018 8:35 am : link
In comment 13953809 Bill L said:
Quote:
you can never have too many pass rushers. And, we lost JPP.

However, the comparison should be the net between Barkley and Gallman/Perkins versus the net between Chubb and Vernon.


Yes we can never have too many pass rushers. But what did our RB's look like before the draft?

Gallman and Perkins as you said plus Stewart.

Now our pass rushers:

Vernon
Mauro
Wynn
Martin
Moss
Ogletree

Not exactly world beaters I know, but that RB board is completely bare in comparison.

Now both crucial categories have major major upgrades in SB and Carter. I am thrilled!
I think I am getting more used to the idea that DG/PS  
Jimmy Googs : 5/4/2018 8:36 am : link
don't feel they have to a franchise QB to turn this club around. Not that they would run away from one given the "slam-dunk" opportunity, but they would rather take less risks than more in coming to that decision.
J Googs  
Wazzat : 5/4/2018 8:45 am : link
bust potential and injury history both figure in the future performance rating.
The QBs got low performance scores from BG from those factors.

Also as Bill D pointed out Chubb's performane rating as a 3-4 OLB was de-rated because he is a classic 4-3 DE.
BBITB  
Wazzat : 5/4/2018 8:47 am : link
LT was 3-4 ER and OLB. A very highly rated position.
Spyder  
Wazzat : 5/4/2018 8:54 am : link
All the ER names you mention are either 3-4 ILBs or DEs except
Vernon, Martin and Moss.
So that cupboard is pretty bare too
RE: Bill L  
Bill L : 5/4/2018 8:57 am : link
In comment 13953888 Wazzat said:
Quote:
Re analytics are stupid, ie the needs part.
That goes into your decision implicitly anyway,
Analytics just forces you to be explicit and see the consequences.

Point is more that people want to tout analytics and that's fine. But the rationale is to add precision through math. So putting in vague, subjective variables renders that approach useless. If you think need is a variable that should be taken into account, and it likely is, then find some way to quantify it.
Bill L  
Wazzat : 5/4/2018 8:58 am : link
Re Barkley's receiving, blocking, returning, decoy skills:
all those were already reflected in his humongous future performance ratung of 94.
RE: Final draft tier analytics  
Klaatu : 5/4/2018 9:02 am : link
In comment 13953773 Wazzat said:
Quote:
for a player seems to be the product of three factors:
a. future performance grade
b. position value
c. need value (ie how soon could the player start?)

Based on salaries alone there is little doubt that an ER position is worth at least 1.3 times a RB.

The Giants current need value of a RB over a ER is about the same -- ie a very good player will likely start immediately at both positions for the Giants in 2018.

Conclusion: Barkley's performance grade would need to be 1.3 times greater than a top edge rusher for his draft tier value to be greater.

DG obviously says it was.
Based on Sy's performance rating of 94 for Barkley, Chubb would have had to have a performance rating of 72 or less to put Barkley higher on the draft tier.

Chubb was rated much higher than 72. So it is likely that DG probably made the wrong choice based on analytics alone.


And that's why Gettleman puts less emphasis on Analytics than your average baseball GM, a point he stressed on WFAN the other day. Analytics simply don't tell as complete a story for football players as they do for baseball players, and while the Giants don't dismiss them completely, and they do factor into their player evaluations, they're much less of a be-all, end-all. There are just some things you can't quantify that way.

Also...Baseball vs. Football
Bill L  
Wazzat : 5/4/2018 9:08 am : link
Re quantifying need factor:
You are absolutely right.
Needs some analysis to scale the differences accurately.
RE: Final draft tier analytics  
Dr. D : 5/4/2018 9:24 am : link
In comment 13953773 Wazzat said:
Quote:
for a player seems to be the product of three factors:
a. future performance grade
b. position value
c. need value (ie how soon could the player start?)

Based on salaries alone there is little doubt that an ER position is worth at least 1.3 times a RB.

You can't directly equate salaries with position value. Supply and demand also play a part in salaries. You may say that supports your argument, but the Giants (and many others) obviously don't see SB as just another RB.

They see him as an all time great versatile weapon that will have more of an impact on the entire team, including the defense, i.e., move the chains, increase time of possession, keep D rested, run out the clock, and oh yeah, score points, outscore the opponent and win games.

The goal is to win, not to get what someone might consider the best position value based on avg salaries. It seems obvious the Giants think SB will help them win more than any of the others including Chubb.
Klaatu  
Wazzat : 5/4/2018 9:25 am : link
I do not believe DG for a second re his pissing on analytics.
He is just being funny.
I am sure they de-rated Chubb's 4-3 performance rating in a 3-4 fit so that he fell a tier behind Barkley even after upgrading Chubb's position factor and possibly even his need factor compared to RB.
They made the right decision on analytics and it fit with the gut feel -- as it should.

You can still make the right decision and end up being wrong.
If you are forced to choose between playing Russian Roulette with one bullet in a six gun (83% survival probability) or jumping off the George Washington Bridge (say 50% survival prob) you would choose RR and could stll die having made the right decision.
Good point by Bill L about comparisons  
Dr. D : 5/4/2018 9:34 am : link
SB has been compared to multiple all time greats; HOFers (including some who HAVE WON Super Bowls).

Who has Chubb been compared to? Sure, he's the best DE this year, but does he project to be an all time great?
RE: Klaatu  
Klaatu : 5/4/2018 9:35 am : link
In comment 13953994 Wazzat said:
Quote:
I do not believe DG for a second re his pissing on analytics.
He is just being funny.
I am sure they de-rated Chubb's 4-3 performance rating in a 3-4 fit so that he fell a tier behind Barkley even after upgrading Chubb's position factor and possibly even his need factor compared to RB.
They made the right decision on analytics and it fit with the gut feel -- as it should.

You can still make the right decision and end up being wrong.
If you are forced to choose between playing Russian Roulette with one bullet in a six gun (83% survival probability) or jumping off the George Washington Bridge (say 50% survival prob) you would choose RR and could stll die having made the right decision.


One of the points DG made was that football is much more of a team game than baseball, and that you have to look at things collectively rather than individually. One reason why they took the best RB to come down the pike in recent memory, and then drafted a road-grader for him to run behind. Everything has to "fit," so to speak, more so in football than in baseball.

Oh, and I agree, he was just being flippant with his remarks about Analytics. I attributed that to lack of sleep and probably too much caffeine.
My only draft complaint  
JonC : 5/4/2018 9:41 am : link
is they didn't come away with a RT prospect. That could suggest confidence in Wheeler in case Flowers doesn't redeem himself, but my preference would have been to grab one and start coaching him up.
RE: My only draft complaint  
the mike : 5/4/2018 9:47 am : link
In comment 13954041 JonC said:
Quote:
is they didn't come away with a RT prospect. That could suggest confidence in Wheeler in case Flowers doesn't redeem himself, but my preference would have been to grab one and start coaching him up.


I agree - only difference for me would have been selecting either Crosby or Rankins instead of BJ Hill... But hopefully it is because Wheeler is progressing faster than anyone here understands.
So we had Chubb/Barkley even?  
AcesUp : 5/4/2018 9:48 am : link
But DG, individually, had the higher grade on Barkley? That's my take on that info and based on what DG said about Barkley having his highest grade ever in the presser. For him not to seriously entertain a trade down there is a fair criticism. When you can get an equally graded player within your organization and another 2 picks in the top two rounds, how do you not at least take that call and have a real conversation?
....  
BrettNYG10 : 5/4/2018 9:51 am : link
I think the Giants grade by tier, but will have rankings within that tier. So the Chubb/Barkley comment could just mean they were in the same tier (elite prospects, or whatever it's called), but Barkley was higher.
RE: My only draft complaint  
Jay on the Island : 5/4/2018 9:54 am : link
In comment 13954041 JonC said:
Quote:
is they didn't come away with a RT prospect. That could suggest confidence in Wheeler in case Flowers doesn't redeem himself, but my preference would have been to grab one and start coaching him up.

Agreed, I thought that they should have taken a chance on Crosby or Jamarco Jones in round 5 but I fully understand the reasoning behind taking McIntosh. He has a nice upside and he will likely contribute early this year in the DE rotation. I have been a big Wheeler supporter since he was signed and I think he will win the RT job.
Teams passed on Crosby due to a foot  
JonC : 5/4/2018 9:56 am : link
and apparently some lingering work ethic concerns, and Rankins is really sloppy and painful to watch play football.

I actually can't think of another legit RT prospect that available, to be honest. There might have been none worth the pick.
Every comment DG has made eludes to the FACT  
Jimmy Googs : 5/4/2018 10:04 am : link
that he was never going to trade that pick, and that he was always going to pick Barkley.
Everything I've heard and read all added up  
JonC : 5/4/2018 10:07 am : link
says Barkley was their top target, period.
The article confirmed something for me  
Blue Racer : 5/4/2018 10:08 am : link
I was hoping the Giants wouldn't take any of the QBs and it would be either Barkley or Chubb. To me, that's quite reassuring. From what I've seen so far, the Giants are in good hands.
RE: My only draft complaint  
Klaatu : 5/4/2018 10:16 am : link
In comment 13954041 JonC said:
Quote:
is they didn't come away with a RT prospect. That could suggest confidence in Wheeler in case Flowers doesn't redeem himself, but my preference would have been to grab one and start coaching him up.


You might be able to make a case for drafting one of the OTs that went after the Hill pick in the 3rd round - Christian, Noteboom, Okafor (I think). I believe their value was relatively similar to Hill's.

However, my guess is that DG and Shurmur liked what they saw from Wheeler at the workout just prior to the draft, and took that into consideration. Also, with the transition to the 3-4, a versatile guy like Hill becomes much more valuable than an OT with a limited upside.

After the 3rd round, you're really getting into project territory with the OTs.
Not a single 'Cuse/BC flunky drafted  
Coach Red Beaulieu : 5/4/2018 10:20 am : link
A+++
Once  
AcidTest : 5/4/2018 10:21 am : link
Crosby got into the fourth round, I thought there might be slipping because of medical reasons.

My guess is that Wheeler is the starting RT, with Flowers as the backup. Bisnowaty is probably cut.

You can't fix all the problems in one year. This is a two year rebuild.
Noteboom and Okafor  
JonC : 5/4/2018 10:22 am : link
were two prospects I thought they might grab one of, especially the latter.
RE: Not a single 'Cuse/BC flunky drafted  
Klaatu : 5/4/2018 10:23 am : link
In comment 13954154 Coach Red Beaulieu said:
Quote:
A+++


No one who played in the Shrine Game, either.
RE: RE: Klaatu  
Coach Red Beaulieu : 5/4/2018 10:31 am : link
In comment 13954024 Klaatu said:
Quote:
In comment 13953994 Wazzat said:


Quote:


I do not believe DG for a second re his pissing on analytics.
He is just being funny.
I am sure they de-rated Chubb's 4-3 performance rating in a 3-4 fit so that he fell a tier behind Barkley even after upgrading Chubb's position factor and possibly even his need factor compared to RB.
They made the right decision on analytics and it fit with the gut feel -- as it should.

You can still make the right decision and end up being wrong.
If you are forced to choose between playing Russian Roulette with one bullet in a six gun (83% survival probability) or jumping off the George Washington Bridge (say 50% survival prob) you would choose RR and could stll die having made the right decision.



One of the points DG made was that football is much more of a team game than baseball, and that you have to look at things collectively rather than individually. One reason why they took the best RB to come down the pike in recent memory, and then drafted a road-grader for him to run behind. Everything has to "fit," so to speak, more so in football than in baseball.

Oh, and I agree, he was just being flippant with his remarks about Analytics. I attributed that to lack of sleep and probably too much caffeine.

Complementary football, tone, chemistry, intangibles, DG gets it. SB and Hernandez is greater than the sum of their parts and SB is a force multiplier.

Not Clint Sintim ffs.
RE: Spyder  
Spyder : 5/4/2018 10:49 am : link
In comment 13953926 Wazzat said:
Quote:
All the ER names you mention are either 3-4 ILBs or DEs except
Vernon, Martin and Moss.
So that cupboard is pretty bare too


That's why I called them pass rushers. There were still more pass rushing weapons in the quiver then running threats. And as I said, both areas were addressed in a major way.
If they had the same grade  
QB Snacks : 5/4/2018 11:17 am : link
and they took Barkley they made a stupid decision. One that literally makes no sense
Couple of decent articles on ESPN site about how  
Jimmy Googs : 5/4/2018 11:36 am : link
Cleveland and Jets were "all-in" on Mayfield and Darnold, respectively...


http://www.espn.com/blog/cleveland-browns/post/_/id/25427/how-the-browns-became-sold-on-baker-mayfield

http://www.espn.com/blog/new-york-jets/post/_/id/76052/the-jets-fell-head-over-heels-for-sam-darnold-then-agonized
RE: You take a 4-3 DE  
TMS : 5/4/2018 12:53 pm : link
In comment 13953816 bc4life said:
Quote:
over Barkley to play him in 3-4 defense?
Post is on the money. we are drafting for players who will fit our scheme and make us better. Pretty much what Belichek does. Like doing a puzzle, get what you need to get it done. Not get carried away with measureables and draft ratings.
RE: Couple of decent articles on ESPN site about how  
ZogZerg : 5/4/2018 12:56 pm : link
In comment 13954276 Jimmy Googs said:
Quote:
Cleveland and Jets were "all-in" on Mayfield and Darnold, respectively...


http://www.espn.com/blog/cleveland-browns/post/_/id/25427/how-the-browns-became-sold-on-baker-mayfield

http://www.espn.com/blog/new-york-jets/post/_/id/76052/the-jets-fell-head-over-heels-for-sam-darnold-then-agonized


I guess that means he is "doubly doomed"!
Poor guy.
let's crank up that countdown clock  
mdc1 : 5/4/2018 12:56 pm : link
.seriously folks, let's see the results on the field and in the record before taking these commercials seriously.
Everybody's got a plan until they get hit....  
Dinger : 5/4/2018 2:11 pm : link
I think they can be satisfied that they got the guys they want, but lets wait until we start playing some games that mattered before we get ahead of ourselves. As we've seen in the recent past, injury, off season or of field issues, lack of development or simple personality 'differences' have derailed our super off seasons before. I like that current FO has made what I and a lot of people think have been long overdue moves, but lets see what happens before we start taking that stroll down broadway.....
RE: You take a 4-3 DE  
Paulie Walnuts : 5/4/2018 2:25 pm : link
In comment 13953816 bc4life said:
Quote:
over Barkley to play him in 3-4 defense?

what you said, would have been a remote thrower
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