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NGT: Breakdown of Eagles’ 29 4th down tries. Wow

FranknWeezer : 5/4/2018 9:20 am
Screw the Eagles. But damn if they didn’t have some serious success at gong for it on 4th down in some seemingly unconventional spots and circumstances. Some of these were no-brainers. Some succeeded due to the ineptitude of the opponent. Some were lucky. Some came at the expense of NYG.

But the “net” over the course of their season was 74 points gained and only 3 points lost. Think about the difference that could (and did, here) make in a season.

Thought this was a cool, informative article. Makes me wonder how Shurmur will handle these situations, and if we have quality control/analytics folks watching trends like these in order to incorporate them into our offensive strategy.
Analysis of Eagles’ 29 highly successful 4th down “go for it” calls last season - ( New Window )
The Eagles are obviously talented. Save for Wentz, they were  
Big Blue '56 : 5/4/2018 9:33 am : link
championship healthy, an absolute requisite. They also gave up 5,000 yards in the SB and STILL WON, so they were charmed, which is what you need of course.

Those stats you cite? I’d be surprised if they even came close to duplicating that this season, imo
The Secret to the Eagles Success  
Essex : 5/4/2018 9:34 am : link
was Doug Pederson. I laughed when they hired him and I don't even think they knew what they were getting, but he and his staff did a heckuva job. They put Wentz and Foles in systems designed to make them succeed. levels.
What I mean to say was that the Eagles did not have a  
Essex : 5/4/2018 9:36 am : link
championship roster, they had a championship coaching staff. And BB56, I disagree, they were banged up, Sproles was out for the year, Peters and Hicks were out for the year. And, of course, Wentz. They would get almost no falloff when bringing in the next guy. It was something I had not seen in a long, long time.
The 74 points gained is flawed logic  
mfsd : 5/4/2018 9:40 am : link
In one case they went for it against the Giants, got sacked, but stopped the Giants on the ensuing possession so they call that 7 points gained?

But interesting read nonetheless
RE: What I mean to say was that the Eagles did not have a  
Big Blue '56 : 5/4/2018 9:42 am : link
In comment 13954029 Essex said:
Quote:
championship roster, they had a championship coaching staff. And BB56, I disagree, they were banged up, Sproles was out for the year, Peters and Hicks were out for the year. And, of course, Wentz. They would get almost no falloff when bringing in the next guy. It was something I had not seen in a long, long time.


Sproles (whom I love) was beginning to age and Peters was a shell of himself in addition to being old. Not sure they were missed all that much. And yes, Pederson and staff were terrific
RE: What I mean to say was that the Eagles did not have a  
Ten Ton Hammer : 5/4/2018 9:43 am : link
In comment 13954029 Essex said:
Quote:
championship roster, they had a championship coaching staff.


That's silly. Teams don't go 13-3 without a lot of talent.
I think the bigger  
jvm52106 : 5/4/2018 9:45 am : link
take away here is to no play scared. Conservative is one thing, downright scared is another. Sometimes you need to take a chance to instill confidence in your team that says oen way or another we will be fine. if we go for it and don't make it our defense will come through.

It also shows a killer mentality on offense. Go after the wins. Take the other teams will away.
I'm sure there  
sshin05 : 5/4/2018 9:46 am : link
is a better way to create analytics for being aggressive. The way the rules are favored towards offenses, it seems that being aggressive rewards more often than not, at least with the Eagles.
It depends a lot on the offensive line.  
Ira : 5/4/2018 10:01 am : link
If you have good interior run blockers, you can often pound it in. Even if you're going to pass, the threat of running inside will influence the defense.
RE: The 74 points gained is flawed logic  
bluepepper : 5/4/2018 10:03 am : link
In comment 13954040 mfsd said:
Quote:
In one case they went for it against the Giants, got sacked, but stopped the Giants on the ensuing possession so they call that 7 points gained?

But interesting read nonetheless

It's a running total. O points added for that play.
RE: The 74 points gained is flawed logic  
FranknWeezer : 5/4/2018 10:14 am : link
In comment 13954040 mfsd said:
Quote:
In one case they went for it against the Giants, got sacked, but stopped the Giants on the ensuing possession so they call that 7 points gained?

But interesting read nonetheless


I thought the same thing at first. But upon further consideration, that seven points was not added with that entry, but carried forward from a previous one. That particular situation you’re talking about did not net points either way.
RE: RE: What I mean to say was that the Eagles did not have a  
Essex : 5/4/2018 10:26 am : link
In comment 13954048 Ten Ton Hammer said:
Quote:
In comment 13954029 Essex said:


Quote:


championship roster, they had a championship coaching staff.



That's silly. Teams don't go 13-3 without a lot of talent.

The talent they had was not much different than in the years before. WHo did they add last year? Jeffrey who had about 800 yards, Torry Smith who had a mediocre season. There offensive line three of the biggest pieces Peters, Kelce, and Johnson had all been there since at least 2012, defensively, they had Graham, Curry, Cox all since at least 2012. There secondary was terrible, but was protected by a good pass rush. Ertz had been there for what since 2013? Celek and Burton had been there for multiple years. Did they add some good pieces like Barnett and Bradham. Yes, of course. Now, you could argue they drafted Wentz, and I get that, but besides the Raiders game, the offense didn't miss a beat. Did some of the old veterans they added like Long and Blount and to a lesser extent Jerningan help, sure it did. And, of course, it is not like they did not have talent, but if you ask me to identify what changed in Philly, it was the coaching staff and how they utilized that talent. It was a masterful job and hope the league has paid attention in the off season to it, so that it can be stopped. My biggest fear is not dealing with Wentz for the next 15 years, it is dealing with Pederson.
I should not say their secondary was terrible  
Essex : 5/4/2018 10:27 am : link
there CBs were terrible, their safeties were good against the run and ball hawks (not so great against the pass). But again, Malcolm Jenkins had been there for a while
The Eagles under Howie  
Keith : 5/4/2018 10:29 am : link
and this new coaching regime have gone against the grain a lot and it's worked out. They seem to be doing things a little differently than everyone else and it's working so far. I really hope it comes crashing down soon!
It's nice to have a QB sneak  
PEEJ : 5/4/2018 10:31 am : link
in the playbook
Everyone, including many on here....  
BillKo : 5/4/2018 10:49 am : link
...were killing Pederson in 2016 for all his fourth down conversions attempts.

Perhaps he had a bigger plan to get his team in that mindset, and it paid off big time in 2017.

Certainly that RPO offense caught the league and was the #1 reason for their success last year IMO.

Think about this: to beat the Pats, they needed to go for a fourth and three, I think it was, in their own territory, trailing and with about 6 or 7 minutes left in the game.

RE: I think the bigger  
regulator : 5/4/2018 11:21 am : link
In comment 13954053 jvm52106 said:
Quote:
take away here is to no play scared.

. . .

It also shows a killer mentality on offense.


I hear this all the time (don't play scared, killer instinct, etc.), mostly from people outside of football... what does it even mean?
That going for it  
Mr. Nickels : 5/4/2018 12:29 pm : link
On 4th down early in the fourth lead to a long drive which secured the game
The Eagles are open to analytics and new thinking  
Go Terps : 5/4/2018 12:39 pm : link
It's a little worrisome considering our GM appears to be a proud Luddite.
RE: The Eagles are open to analytics and new thinking  
Sean : 5/4/2018 1:01 pm : link
In comment 13954359 Go Terps said:
Quote:
It's a little worrisome considering our GM appears to be a proud Luddite.


Overstated imv, DG has repeatedly complimented Philly on their depth on the lines as well as their DL rotations. Let’s see how analytical/forward thinking they are when it’s time to pony up to Wentz.
RE: RE: What I mean to say was that the Eagles did not have a  
old man : 5/4/2018 1:07 pm : link
In comment 13954042 Big Blue '56 said:
Quote:
In comment 13954029 Essex said:


Quote:


championship roster, they had a championship coaching staff. And BB56, I disagree, they were banged up, Sproles was out for the year, Peters and Hicks were out for the year. And, of course, Wentz. They would get almost no falloff when bringing in the next guy. It was something I had not seen in a long, long time.



Sproles (whom I love) was beginning to age and Peters was a shell of himself in addition to being old. Not sure they were missed all that much. And yes, Pederson and staff were terrific


Sometimes you can just be on such a roll that you almost can't fail unless you try; it's the anti-Murphy's Law.
Look at the SB, and the 4th down to the TE; or the trick pass play to Foles alone: Questionable formation and set , perfect pass by a TE, a catch by the QB, and getting away with a play like that by a BB coached team.
I'll wait to This season to judge how talented or coached they are, with a target on their back.
RE: RE: The Eagles are open to analytics and new thinking  
Go Terps : 5/4/2018 1:28 pm : link
In comment 13954381 Sean said:
Quote:
In comment 13954359 Go Terps said:


Quote:


It's a little worrisome considering our GM appears to be a proud Luddite.



Overstated imv, DG has repeatedly complimented Philly on their depth on the lines as well as their DL rotations. Let’s see how analytical/forward thinking they are when it’s time to pony up to Wentz.


Yup. I wonder if they have any thought to drafting Jackson at the end of round 1. Seems a great fit.
RE: The Eagles are open to analytics and new thinking  
Keith : 5/4/2018 1:52 pm : link
In comment 13954359 Go Terps said:
Quote:
It's a little worrisome considering our GM appears to be a proud Luddite.


This is my fear as well. That we are "old school" in our thinking and we don't adapt to the game as it is now.
RE: RE: The Eagles are open to analytics and new thinking  
BigBlueinChicago : 5/4/2018 2:11 pm : link
In comment 13954436 Keith said:
Quote:
In comment 13954359 Go Terps said:


Quote:


It's a little worrisome considering our GM appears to be a proud Luddite.



This is my fear as well. That we are "old school" in our thinking and we don't adapt to the game as it is now.


Someone on BBI in one of the threads during the draft last week said it (I want to give them credit) when they used the analogy that Gettleman is the equivalent of the old man still using a typewriter to send letters while the Eagles are using email.

We will see which one these will be successful. Though I am fearing the worst.
Thats a great analogy that explains my fears,  
Keith : 5/4/2018 2:13 pm : link
not necessarily reality(time will tell), but thats how I feel right now.
RE: RE: RE: The Eagles are open to analytics and new thinking  
sshin05 : 5/4/2018 2:19 pm : link
In comment 13954459 BigBlueinChicago said:
Quote:
In comment 13954436 Keith said:


Quote:


In comment 13954359 Go Terps said:


Quote:


It's a little worrisome considering our GM appears to be a proud Luddite.



This is my fear as well. That we are "old school" in our thinking and we don't adapt to the game as it is now.



Someone on BBI in one of the threads during the draft last week said it (I want to give them credit) when they used the analogy that Gettleman is the equivalent of the old man still using a typewriter to send letters while the Eagles are using email.

We will see which one these will be successful. Though I am fearing the worst.


Gettleman in an interview (WFAN?) after the draft said that they did analytics as well. It's just when it came to picking in the draft that he went with the best talent overall as opposed to what analytics says what position they should pick.
RE: The Eagles are open to analytics and new thinking  
santacruzom : 5/4/2018 3:29 pm : link
In comment 13954359 Go Terps said:
Quote:
It's a little worrisome considering our GM appears to be a proud Luddite.


To me it seems like Gettleman is skeptical of analytics when it comes to determining who to draft (particularly from a financial impact perspective), but I don't know that he's dismissive of their value when it comes to calling a game.
RE: The Eagles are obviously talented. Save for Wentz, they were  
bradshaw44 : 5/4/2018 3:31 pm : link
In comment 13954016 Big Blue '56 said:
Quote:
championship healthy, an absolute requisite. They also gave up 5,000 yards in the SB and STILL WON, so they were charmed, which is what you need of course.

Those stats you cite? I’d be surprised if they even came close to duplicating that this season, imo


5,000 yards in one game?! That HAS to be a record:)
Quite frankly...  
jamison884 : 5/4/2018 3:39 pm : link
This league is notoriously bad on 4th down decisions. Take out the old school coaching philosophy (as in the game of football was created today), and there would be a tremendous increase in 4th down attempts.

Part of that is also on the older fans and NFL analysts who crucify every failed 4th down attempt and rarely give the same credit for 4th down success.
RE: Quite frankly...  
Spyder : 5/4/2018 4:00 pm : link
In comment 13954574 jamison884 said:
Quote:
This league is notoriously bad on 4th down decisions. Take out the old school coaching philosophy (as in the game of football was created today), and there would be a tremendous increase in 4th down attempts.

Part of that is also on the older fans and NFL analysts who crucify every failed 4th down attempt and rarely give the same credit for 4th down success.


Yes I agree, there was a study done on a few years back that suggested it is almost always better to go for on 4th down, at least when in midfield less then 5 or 6 yards. Just one more reason the running game is so critical, when you are a good running team you can afford to go for it much more often.
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