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Mara asked how long a Long term deal for OBJ will take?

The 12th Man : 5/9/2018 2:59 pm
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He's going to be here for aloooong time.  
Dave in Hoboken : 5/9/2018 3:01 pm : link
Folks might as well accept it and move on.
If they are smart  
Big Rick in FL : 5/9/2018 3:35 pm : link
They get the deal done before the season. His price will only get higher. He's actually going to be playing in a decent offense that helps get him open. Not just slants every play.
RE: If they are smart  
giants#1 : 5/9/2018 3:40 pm : link
In comment 13959485 Big Rick in FL said:
Quote:
They get the deal done before the season. His price will only get higher. He's actually going to be playing in a decent offense that helps get him open. Not just slants every play.


Also eliminates the distraction, especially since you know the NY media will be asking about it daily once the games camp starts.
Letís make certain his ankle has healed  
Big Blue '56 : 5/9/2018 3:44 pm : link
as it should have
RE: Letís make certain his ankle has healed  
Jim in Tampa : 5/9/2018 3:53 pm : link
In comment 13959493 Big Blue '56 said:
Quote:
as it should have


I agree, and that's probably the Giants' thinking too BUT...

If the Giants' won't offer a new contract without seeing him practice and play in preseason games and Beckham won't practice or play without a contract extension...then where are we?
You just get the sense...  
bw in dc : 5/9/2018 4:03 pm : link
that there aren't going to be enough footballs to go around.

All indications are Barkley will be a workhorse. Not in the Jerome Bettis sense, but in the sense of all-around touches. If Engram takes off, which I think is all systems go, then he's going significantly increase his touches. Which will likely mean, because OBJ will take added coverage, that there are less opportunities for OBJ.

And from there you can just write the script that OBJ starts getting antsy and the demons come out...

So I would not sign him until next year, or apply the franchise tag. Let's see how his performance goes with a healed body and a new offense that could adversely impact the role he is used to.

(I would prefer to trade him, but I think the market correctly views his value as way overrated compared to Jints Central).


RE: RE: Letís make certain his ankle has healed  
Big Blue '56 : 5/9/2018 4:05 pm : link
In comment 13959502 Jim in Tampa said:
Quote:
In comment 13959493 Big Blue '56 said:


Quote:


as it should have



I agree, and that's probably the Giants' thinking too BUT...

If the Giants' won't offer a new contract without seeing him practice and play in preseason games and Beckham won't practice or play without a contract extension...then where are we?


Good question. If he doesnít or wonít show what he can presently do before being offered a huge contract, then heíll have to play out the year on the present contract and be possibly subjected to two more years beyond that under the franchise tag. If necessary.
.  
arcarsenal : 5/9/2018 4:07 pm : link
How many players were permanently slowed by a broken ankle?

I don't think the injury should be of concern to anyone, really.
RE: You just get the sense...  
Brown Recluse : 5/9/2018 4:09 pm : link
In comment 13959516 bw in dc said:
Quote:
that there aren't going to be enough footballs to go around.

All indications are Barkley will be a workhorse. Not in the Jerome Bettis sense, but in the sense of all-around touches. If Engram takes off, which I think is all systems go, then he's going significantly increase his touches. Which will likely mean, because OBJ will take added coverage, that there are less opportunities for OBJ.

And from there you can just write the script that OBJ starts getting antsy and the demons come out...

So I would not sign him until next year, or apply the franchise tag. Let's see how his performance goes with a healed body and a new offense that could adversely impact the role he is used to.

(I would prefer to trade him, but I think the market correctly views his value as way overrated compared to Jints Central).



Maybe they can trade him for Sam Darnold or Josh Rosen.
RE: Letís make certain his ankle has healed  
Trainmaster : 5/9/2018 4:15 pm : link
BB56: Based of course on only whatís been reported in the press, how likely is it his injury could prevent him from a full return to his explosiveness? Cruz was never the same, but I recall that was expected.
.  
arcarsenal : 5/9/2018 4:18 pm : link
Cruz' patellar tendon exploded - that injury is way different than a broken ankle. Beckham returning to form should really just be a matter of when rather than if.
RE: You just get the sense...  
giants#1 : 5/9/2018 4:23 pm : link
In comment 13959516 bw in dc said:
Quote:
that there aren't going to be enough footballs to go around.

All indications are Barkley will be a workhorse. Not in the Jerome Bettis sense, but in the sense of all-around touches. If Engram takes off, which I think is all systems go, then he's going significantly increase his touches. Which will likely mean, because OBJ will take added coverage, that there are less opportunities for OBJ.

And from there you can just write the script that OBJ starts getting antsy and the demons come out...

So I would not sign him until next year, or apply the franchise tag. Let's see how his performance goes with a healed body and a new offense that could adversely impact the role he is used to.

(I would prefer to trade him, but I think the market correctly views his value as way overrated compared to Jints Central).



That's nonsense. Eli's averaged ~600 attempts the last 3 seasons and the Vikings as a team averaged ~550 attempts the last 2 seasons with PS there. So let's say the Giants throw it *only* 550 times, which would be Eli's lowest total since 2013 (551 attempts):

Beckham: 160 targets (averaged 164 in 2015-16)
Shepard: 100 targets
Engram: 125 targets (had 115 last season even with Beckham out and SS missing games)
Ellison: 30 targets (career high 32 last season)
Barkley: 100 targets (only 7 RBs in the last 3 seasons have >100 targets; only David Johnson and Christian McCaffrey with >106)
Total: 515 targets

That would still leave 35 targets for everyone else, and really is there anyone else that should be seeing significant targets? And again, that's with Eli throwing his fewest passes in 5+ seasons.
Make sure he's healthy  
JonC : 5/9/2018 4:24 pm : link
and is willing to come off that $20M per number.
For tears, many on BBI complained because the Giants too easily  
Ivan15 : 5/9/2018 4:24 pm : link
And too quickly re-signed players. Now you want to re-sign a player whose quickness is his biggest asset before you find out if his injury has reduced that quickness or has become chronic.

It will happen when it is supposed to happen.
Years  
Ivan15 : 5/9/2018 4:26 pm : link
.
RE: RE: Letís make certain his ankle has healed  
Big Blue '56 : 5/9/2018 4:28 pm : link
In comment 13959532 Trainmaster said:
Quote:
BB56: Based of course on only whatís been reported in the press, how likely is it his injury could prevent him from a full return to his explosiveness? Cruz was never the same, but I recall that was expected.


Generally, no problem. If it was a simple fracture with no damage to encumbering structures/nerves, he should be fine. However, with 15-20 million per at stake and most likely a huge amount of guaranteed money, I would want to be certain.
RE: RE: You just get the sense...  
bw in dc : 5/9/2018 4:36 pm : link
In comment 13959541 giants#1 said:
Quote:

That's nonsense. Eli's averaged ~600 attempts the last 3 seasons and the Vikings as a team averaged ~550 attempts the last 2 seasons with PS there. So let's say the Giants throw it *only* 550 times, which would be Eli's lowest total since 2013 (551 attempts):

Beckham: 160 targets (averaged 164 in 2015-16)
Shepard: 100 targets
Engram: 125 targets (had 115 last season even with Beckham out and SS missing games)
Ellison: 30 targets (career high 32 last season)
Barkley: 100 targets (only 7 RBs in the last 3 seasons have >100 targets; only David Johnson and Christian McCaffrey with >106)
Total: 515 targets

That would still leave 35 targets for everyone else, and really is there anyone else that should be seeing significant targets? And again, that's with Eli throwing his fewest passes in 5+ seasons.


You are missing a key ingredient in your analysis that I was considering - hand offs, where Barkley will get many.

And the more you run the ball, the more time you take off the clock, and the overall opportunities decline.

And let's be honest here. Teams are going to have to choose their poison - OBJ by air or Barkley by the ground/others in the air.

I think this all adds up to less opportunities for OBJ...

With a 37 year old QB, it sort of makes sense.
The Giants didn't draw a single WR  
Nysportsfn13 : 5/9/2018 4:54 pm : link
and they even released on, though Marshall wasn't very good. writing is on the wall, Odell will be here for many years.
OBJ  
old man : 5/9/2018 4:55 pm : link
will have fewer targets:
First, because it's about the RUN.
Second, because they want to take focus off him by bringing other receivers into the passing flow to further confound the D.
Third, doing the above should get OBJ open more per attempt and allow him to be in an open area to use his moves to make bigger gains.
The upside is: we should get more possessions; but, again:
Our O will be about the run.
wouldn't be surprised  
jestersdead : 5/9/2018 5:09 pm : link
if they announce the contract extension on opening day similar to Plax in 2008
RE: RE: RE: You just get the sense...  
giants#1 : 5/9/2018 5:10 pm : link
In comment 13959566 bw in dc said:
Quote:
In comment 13959541 giants#1 said:


Quote:



That's nonsense. Eli's averaged ~600 attempts the last 3 seasons and the Vikings as a team averaged ~550 attempts the last 2 seasons with PS there. So let's say the Giants throw it *only* 550 times, which would be Eli's lowest total since 2013 (551 attempts):

Beckham: 160 targets (averaged 164 in 2015-16)
Shepard: 100 targets
Engram: 125 targets (had 115 last season even with Beckham out and SS missing games)
Ellison: 30 targets (career high 32 last season)
Barkley: 100 targets (only 7 RBs in the last 3 seasons have >100 targets; only David Johnson and Christian McCaffrey with >106)
Total: 515 targets

That would still leave 35 targets for everyone else, and really is there anyone else that should be seeing significant targets? And again, that's with Eli throwing his fewest passes in 5+ seasons.



You are missing a key ingredient in your analysis that I was considering - hand offs, where Barkley will get many.

And the more you run the ball, the more time you take off the clock, and the overall opportunities decline.

And let's be honest here. Teams are going to have to choose their poison - OBJ by air or Barkley by the ground/others in the air.

I think this all adds up to less opportunities for OBJ...

With a 37 year old QB, it sort of makes sense.


I didn't forget rushing, that was one of the reasons I used 550 targets instead of the 600 targets Eli's averaged. Giants ran it 24.6 times/game last season (~400 total attempts) which was a pathetic 25th in the league. That said, the Colts ran in the 10th most times at just 28.2 att/game. So a measely 3.6 att/game separated the Giants from being top 10 in rushing attempts.

3.6 x 16 = 57.6 total attempts

So basically my analysis has the Giants with the exact same # of plays in 2018.

And while running takes more time off the clock, a respectable running game also helps keep drives alive and results in fewer 3 and outs so it doesn't necessarily equate to fewer opportunities. The Jags led the league in rushing attempts/game with 32.9 in 2017 and led the league in total offensive plays. Another big factor here is in the pace of play you want to play. If you're Dallas and you're trying to slow things down and shorten the game, then yes, more rushing attempts = fewer total plays. But some teams want a faster pace (snapping with 10-15 sec on game clock) to keep momentum going and the D off balance.

At worst, Beckham should be the #2 option on offense and if Shurmur can't find ways to get him the ball, he won't be long for the job. Beckham's one of the 5 most explosive players in the game.
RE: RE: Letís make certain his ankle has healed  
the mike : 5/9/2018 5:11 pm : link
In comment 13959502 Jim in Tampa said:
Quote:
In comment 13959493 Big Blue '56 said:


Quote:


as it should have



I agree, and that's probably the Giants' thinking too BUT...

If the Giants' won't offer a new contract without seeing him practice and play in preseason games and Beckham won't practice or play without a contract extension...then where are we?


Exactly the point. The contract will not get done until Beckham proves he is operating at full speed and is again the top three NFL receiver that he was prior to the injury. This will likely take the preseason and a number of games in the regular season to be conclusive. If he is performing as Odell has performed at his best AND he agrees to Antonio Brown like numbers, I would bet that Mara will give him his contract before the Giants 2018 bye week as a matter of good faith.

But if Odell is still hobbled by the injury or if he continues to demand that he be paid like Kirk Cousins or if he refuses to take the field and holds out, then a franchise tag will be likely for next year...
I guarantee that if we are winning games  
ron mexico : 5/9/2018 5:11 pm : link
OBJ wont complain about individual lack of production.

For all his faults, jealousy doesn't seem to be one of them. He is always very happy for his teammates success.
The contract will get done  
Dave on the UWS : 5/9/2018 5:35 pm : link
when it gets done. That's organizational PR stuff. First he has to be cleared for full football activities. Then a bit of good faith on both sides. They will forego asking him to "demonstrate" he's the "old" OBJ if, as JonC says, he comes off the $20 mil number. They can do that by giving him a little more guaranteed money adding an extra year, that sort of thing, keeping the cap hit at around 18-19. What's left is structuring it so the extension can be signed probably early in training camp would be my guess. They would want to make sure there is good will for all to start things off on the right foot. His being present for the voluntary stuff was a big deal to management. BW off the mark again as usual. Oh and the "not enough footballs to go around" crap. The two people who should get the most touches are Barkley and Beckham- they are your two game breakers. Everyone else takes what they can get
RE: The contract will get done  
the mike : 5/9/2018 6:00 pm : link
In comment 13959620 Dave on the UWS said:
Quote:
when it gets done. That's organizational PR stuff. First he has to be cleared for full football activities. Then a bit of good faith on both sides. They will forego asking him to "demonstrate" he's the "old" OBJ if, as JonC says, he comes off the $20 mil number. They can do that by giving him a little more guaranteed money adding an extra year, that sort of thing, keeping the cap hit at around 18-19. What's left is structuring it so the extension can be signed probably early in training camp would be my guess. They would want to make sure there is good will for all to start things off on the right foot. His being present for the voluntary stuff was a big deal to management. BW off the mark again as usual. Oh and the "not enough footballs to go around" crap. The two people who should get the most touches are Barkley and Beckham- they are your two game breakers. Everyone else takes what they can get


Completely agree that the value of Barkley is maximized with a healthy Beckham and vice versa. We will hopefully have both of them here as the faces of the franchise for a decade...

But I think you are being optimistic on Mara guaranteeing to Beckham the most dollars to a WR in NFL history without seeing Beckham perform in regular season games... We have seen lots of players get injured and never get back to pre-injury performance - Victor Cruz being a recent example that is no doubt etched in Mara's memory. I acknowledge that Odell's injury is not nearly the injury to Cruz and that Beckham should fully recover to his old self. But I just can't see Mara taking this kind of risk without a bit of regular season "show me" on Odell's part...
RE: You just get the sense...  
DonQuixote : 5/9/2018 6:01 pm : link
In comment 13959516 bw in dc said:
Quote:
that there aren't going to be enough footballs to go around.

All indications are Barkley will be a workhorse. Not in the Jerome Bettis sense, but in the sense of all-around touches. If Engram takes off, which I think is all systems go, then he's going significantly increase his touches. Which will likely mean, because OBJ will take added coverage, that there are less opportunities for OBJ.

And from there you can just write the script that OBJ starts getting antsy and the demons come out...

So I would not sign him until next year, or apply the franchise tag. Let's see how his performance goes with a healed body and a new offense that could adversely impact the role he is used to.

(I would prefer to trade him, but I think the market correctly views his value as way overrated compared to Jints Central).



I don't get that sense at all. I think OBJ is one of the top players in the league and we can only hope that SB gets to that level. I would bet that OBJ and SB now wish continued long term success for each other.
That's why I think  
Dave on the UWS : 5/9/2018 6:07 pm : link
there will be a degree of "good faith" on both parts to get this done. He may have to demonstrate to the doctors certain aspects of strength and flexibility in the ankle to be cleared. That may be as much as Mara will get. It's in OBJ's best interest NOT to practice or play without a new contract. And it's in management's best interest to have him prove himself first. So finding a middle ground where both sides give up something will be necessary
Dave - needs to be bilateral good faith...  
the mike : 5/9/2018 7:05 pm : link
You are asking Mara to have good faith with no quid pro quo. In your scenario, Odell has no faith and plays only if he gets the big contract... Saying that Odell will forego a ridiculous Kirk Cousins ransom for the highest WR contract in NFL history is offering Mara nothing...

I hate to be pessimistic here, but if Odell will not take the field without an "Antonio Brown like" contract, I think we are headed for a "holdout/franchise tag" stalemate...
If I was him, I wouldn't set foot on the  
Dave on the UWS : 5/9/2018 7:13 pm : link
field without that extension. There's no upside for him to do so. What he's giving up is signing a contract more to the front office likeing. Don't forget, he was talking about becoming THE highest paid player (which would be north of 30 million). If they require him to play to show he's as explosive as ever, it's going to cost them BIG bucks.
They will just franchise him then...  
the mike : 5/9/2018 7:33 pm : link
as the Steelers have franchised Leveon Bell. Don't see Mara being moved by unreasonable contract demands...

If this is the approach Odell will take, my guess is we are in for an ugly holdout culminating in a franchise tag next year...
...  
SFGFNCGiantsFan : 5/9/2018 8:16 pm : link
I'm confident a deal will be reached that'll ensure Odell will be a Giant for awhile, much to the consternation of many on BBI.
RE: If I was him, I wouldn't set foot on the  
arcarsenal : 5/9/2018 8:33 pm : link
In comment 13959660 Dave on the UWS said:
Quote:
field without that extension. There's no upside for him to do so. What he's giving up is signing a contract more to the front office likeing. Don't forget, he was talking about becoming THE highest paid player (which would be north of 30 million). If they require him to play to show he's as explosive as ever, it's going to cost them BIG bucks.


He can ask to be the highest paid player in football but he won't get that. They'll make him the highest paid WR.
I agree  
Dave on the UWS : 5/9/2018 8:51 pm : link
Heís 25, a 6 yr deal with $60 million guaranteed avg about 18-19 would be a fair contract to me.
If the take home is that the RB is so good  
Bill L : 5/9/2018 9:10 pm : link
That it actually hurts us to have a great WR, I think thatís flawed logic.

The bottom line, and actually the *only* thing is if you want to win, you put the most numbers of best p,Ayers at every position you can.
If people think..  
FatMan in Charlotte : 5/9/2018 9:28 pm : link
OBJ's demons are from not getting the ball enough, they really don't know what makes him tick.

He doesn't scream at the QB to throw him the ball. He screams when the offense goes 3 and out and when they fail to move the ball.

The guy wants to win, not have the Dez Bryant "Throw me the damn ball" tantrums.

But again - it is hard to turn the situation that there are more skills players into a negative unless you manufacture some scenario that isn't likely. And some posters have to turn it into a negative because they are setting the table to go ballistic when the team pays the man what he deserves.
RE: You just get the sense...  
short lease : 5/10/2018 1:09 am : link
In comment 13959516 bw in dc said:
Quote:
that there aren't going to be enough footballs to go around.

All indications are Barkley will be a workhorse. Not in the Jerome Bettis sense, but in the sense of all-around touches. If Engram takes off, which I think is all systems go, then he's going significantly increase his touches. Which will likely mean, because OBJ will take added coverage, that there are less opportunities for OBJ.

And from there you can just write the script that OBJ starts getting antsy and the demons come out...

So I would not sign him until next year, or apply the franchise tag. Let's see how his performance goes with a healed body and a new offense that could adversely impact the role he is used to.

(I would prefer to trade him, but I think the market correctly views his value as way overrated compared to Jints Central).



"All indications are Barkley will be a workhorse. Not in the Jerome Bettis sense, but in the sense of all-around touches. If Engram takes off, which I think is all systems go, then he's going significantly increase his touches."


Kind of a nice problem to have? Don't forget about Sheppard ...
I think Barkley's signing  
Doomster : 5/10/2018 12:24 pm : link
is a bargaining chip for the Giants, to move on from OBj if his asking price remains ridiculous....

The Giants have him under control, theoretically for the next two years with the fifth year option and franchise tag.....

I personally would not extend him until maybe mid season, to see how that ankle is....

But OBj can be OBj all through this process.....will he play in preseason games? will he risk injury? Will he play hurt? I don't think so without a contract extension in his hand....
OBJ is coming off a season ending injury  
youtoo2 : 5/10/2018 1:50 pm : link
Lets see if he can stay healthy and be his old self again before we go and give him a massive deal. I am ok with a deal during the season if he is his old self. The reason for that would be before prices go up again.

Make ODB have to be in a contract year. He has to impress to get a big contract. If he holds back he will not get as much money.

He got hurt in training camp. Then reinjured during the year. Lets see if he is healthy and stays healthy before paying him.
RE: RE: You just get the sense...  
youtoo2 : 5/10/2018 1:52 pm : link
In comment 13959541 giants#1 said:
Quote:
In comment 13959516 bw in dc said:




That's nonsense. Eli's averaged ~600 attempts the last 3 seasons and the Vikings as a team averaged ~550 attempts the last 2 seasons with PS there. So let's say the Giants throw it *only* 550 times, which would be Eli's lowest total since 2013 (551 attempts):

Beckham: 160 targets (averaged 164 in 2015-16)
Shepard: 100 targets
Engram: 125 targets (had 115 last season even with Beckham out and SS missing games)
Ellison: 30 targets (career high 32 last season)
Barkley: 100 targets (only 7 RBs in the last 3 seasons have >100 targets; only David Johnson and Christian McCaffrey with >106)
Total: 515 targets

That would still leave 35 targets for everyone else, and really is there anyone else that should be seeing significant targets? And again, that's with Eli throwing his fewest passes in 5+ seasons.


I would like to see Beckhams targets come down because the Giants have other weapons. Beckhams targets are so high because the Giants did not have a running game or anything else. Beckham could have less targets and more big plays if we get balance from other receivers and a running game since defenses cannot solely focus on him.

End of Season  
Giantslifer : 5/10/2018 2:50 pm : link
Giants should not sign OBJ until after this season.
He has to prove he is an ADULT.
RE: wouldn't be surprised  
figgy2989 : 5/10/2018 3:00 pm : link
In comment 13959604 jestersdead said:
Quote:
if they announce the contract extension on opening day similar to Plax in 2008


If they go this route, letís hope there are different outcomes! Still wonder what we would have done that year and years to come with Plax had he decided to follow proper club attire and wore jeans.
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