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Figured out why so many are pissed we didn't go QB @ #2

Knee of Theismann : 5/20/2018 3:47 am
Since 2000... only one QB drafted in the top 10 picks has won a super bowl...

His name? Eli Manning.

No wonder so many Giants fans think that to win a super bowl, you need to draft a QB when in the top 5 when you have the rare opportunity to do so... because the last time we did it we won two super bowls. Well go look at the % of QBs drafted in the top 5 who went on to win a super bowl. It's pretty damn low. Why? Because winning a super bowl has nothing to do with what pick in the draft your QB was drafted. It has everything to do with your full team and your coaching staff.

Yes Roethlisberger was #11 overall, I know that's a technicality, but he also wasn't the MVP of either super bowl he won, just sayin'.

Many will say: well Brady in the 6th round could never have been predicted. True. Who could have ever known Brees or Rodgers would be so good. True. But look at the general history of quarterbacks drafted ANYWHERE in the draft, including in the top 5, the top 10, whatever... it's hard to find an elite QB, PERIOD.

My point is this: Yes, quarterback is the most important position on the football field and QB has high "positional value" when making a draft pick. But clearly the Giants brass did not see a QB that was worth the #2 pick more than Barkley was (the highest rated RB prospect in 10 years), in spite of that "positional value" of the position.

Is it any coincidence that none of the 4 teams that drafted QBs in the top 10 in 2018 have won a super bowl in the past 50 years, have one super bowl in total (Jets SB III), and haven't sniffed a "franchise" QB themselves in decades?

The QBs just weren't great prospects. They all had some characteristic that made them an extremely risky pick at #2. We all agreed on that here on BBI. You don't just take a QB at #2 just because you need one, even if you don't like the prospects, that's such a defeatist attitude. Take the guy that will give your team the best chance at winning.

Some people here seem to believe taking a QB in the top 5 guarantees you a super bowl in the next 15 years just because it happened to our team once before, I'm glad those people aren't running this team.

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Also....  
Britt in VA : 5/21/2018 10:11 am : link
I also don't see how you can call Philip Rivers a great pick for the Chargers when they already had Drew frickin Brees on the roster in only his third year.

Here's a hypothetical for you: Instead of Rivers, what if the Chargers drafted Larry Fitzgerald?

Drew Brees, Ladanian Tomlinson, Larry Fitzgerald, Antonio Gates.

That might have been a pretty good team.
The debate is whether there was a true....  
Britt in VA : 5/21/2018 10:12 am : link
lock of a "franchise" QB available in this draft.

That remains to be seen.
There are so many factors that could play into this  
UberAlias : 5/21/2018 10:14 am : link
How big of an impact does Barkley have? How good do the QBs they passed up on become? Do the Giants find a franchise QB to follow-up Eli?

I think the scenarios that might call into question the decision would be if one or more of the QBs they passed up on prove to be elite, or they passed on a franchise QB and the team struggles to find one. If the Giants find a good answer for the future of the QB position it would be hard to argue against their decision barring one of the QBs they passed on developing into something special (or Barkley not living up to expectations).

I'll be honest, I remain a bit skeptical about the decision to pass on Darnold (Barkley was by far my 2nd choice), but I'm going to give them the benefit of the doubt as they know more than I do and, of course, hope for the best.
RE: Also....  
Jimmy Googs : 5/21/2018 10:18 am : link
In comment 13969693 Britt in VA said:
Quote:
I also don't see how you can call Philip Rivers a great pick for the Chargers when they already had Drew frickin Brees on the roster in only his third year.

Here's a hypothetical for you: Instead of Rivers, what if the Chargers drafted Larry Fitzgerald?

Drew Brees, Ladanian Tomlinson, Larry Fitzgerald, Antonio Gates.

That might have been a pretty good team.


Who called Rivers a great pick?
RE: The debate is whether there was a true....  
Jimmy Googs : 5/21/2018 10:19 am : link
In comment 13969696 Britt in VA said:
Quote:
lock of a "franchise" QB available in this draft.

That remains to be seen.


Yep, but that wasn't the debate above.
RE: RE: Also....  
Britt in VA : 5/21/2018 10:20 am : link
In comment 13969710 Jimmy Googs said:
Quote:
In comment 13969693 Britt in VA said:


Quote:


I also don't see how you can call Philip Rivers a great pick for the Chargers when they already had Drew frickin Brees on the roster in only his third year.

Here's a hypothetical for you: Instead of Rivers, what if the Chargers drafted Larry Fitzgerald?

Drew Brees, Ladanian Tomlinson, Larry Fitzgerald, Antonio Gates.

That might have been a pretty good team.



Who called Rivers a great pick?


I was responding to bw, who said Rivers was a better pick QB than Manning, which I would consider a great pick.
RE: The debate is whether there was a true....  
giantstock : 5/21/2018 10:21 am : link
In comment 13969696 Britt in VA said:
Quote:
lock of a "franchise" QB available in this draft.

That remains to be seen.


What is your definition of a franchise QB?
RE: RE: The debate is whether there was a true....  
Britt in VA : 5/21/2018 10:22 am : link
In comment 13969713 Jimmy Googs said:
Quote:
In comment 13969696 Britt in VA said:


Quote:


lock of a "franchise" QB available in this draft.

That remains to be seen.



Yep, but that wasn't the debate above.


There are so many hypotheticals being tossed around these days it's hard to separate one thread from the next.

I would suggest we start discussing what is actually real and tangible instead of "what if's", but I don't want to tell people how to post.

These threads are all starting to bleed together and won't really be able to be discussed until 5 years down the road, anyways.
RE: The debate is whether there was a true....  
JonC : 5/21/2018 10:23 am : link
In comment 13969696 Britt in VA said:
Quote:
lock of a "franchise" QB available in this draft.

That remains to be seen.



Picking the legit franchise QB in the rare air of a #2 overall pick would be optimal.

But, I'd agree it doesn't look like that prospect was present this year. Plenty of other ways to build a SB winning team ...

Time will tell, indeed.
I'm pretty..  
FatMan in Charlotte : 5/21/2018 10:24 am : link
sure if Darnold gets off to a Sanchez-like start, even if it results in a Sanchez-like finish, the first few years will be really annoying around here.
RE: RE: The debate is whether there was a true....  
Britt in VA : 5/21/2018 10:24 am : link
In comment 13969719 giantstock said:
Quote:
In comment 13969696 Britt in VA said:


Quote:


lock of a "franchise" QB available in this draft.

That remains to be seen.



What is your definition of a franchise QB?


Andrew Luck was the last one that I remember.

Tall
Big time arm: can make all the throws.
Cerebral: The ability to read a defense and change the play at the line of scrimmage
Played in a Pro Style Offense and therefor can take snaps under center, play action, good footwork.
Shouldn't have to sit and learn for a year....  
Britt in VA : 5/21/2018 10:25 am : link
like most of these guys will.
Good character also important because these guys.....  
Britt in VA : 5/21/2018 10:29 am : link
have to lead men.
RE: RE: RE: The debate is whether there was a true....  
Jimmy Googs : 5/21/2018 10:30 am : link
In comment 13969720 Britt in VA said:
Quote:
In comment 13969713 Jimmy Googs said:


Quote:


In comment 13969696 bBritt in VA said:


Quote:


lock of a "franchise" QB available in this draft.

That remains to be seen.



Yep, but that wasn't the debate above.



There are so many hypotheticals being tossed around these days it's hard to separate one thread from the next.

I would suggest we start discussing what is actually real and tangible instead of "what if's", but I don't want to tell people how to post.

These threads are all starting to bleed together and won't really be able to be discussed until 5 years down the road, anyways.


It wasn't my hypothetical but another poster used it to make his point so I chimed in because it was suspect at best. If you're not following it or confused, then start your own thread and discuss the real tangible stuff.
RE: RE: RE: The debate is whether there was a true....  
giantstock : 5/21/2018 10:32 am : link
In comment 13969727 Britt in VA said:
Quote:
In comment 13969719 giantstock said:


Quote:


In comment 13969696 Britt in VA said:


Quote:


lock of a "franchise" QB available in this draft.

That remains to be seen.



What is your definition of a franchise QB?



Andrew Luck was the last one that I remember.

Tall
Big time arm: can make all the throws.
Cerebral: The ability to read a defense and change the play at the line of scrimmage
Played in a Pro Style Offense and therefor can take snaps under center, play action, good footwork.


I just asked who is a franchise QB. So you wouldn't have taken Wentz or Goff with the 2nd pick? They aren't franchise QB's?

Andrew Luck's rating was off the charts. SO if he isn't Luck off-the-charts your definition is that he isn't a franchise QB?
RE: RE: RE: Also....  
Jimmy Googs : 5/21/2018 10:33 am : link
In comment 13969715 Britt in VA said:
Quote:
In comment 13969710 Jimmy Googs said:


Quote:


In comment 13969693 Britt in VA said:


Quote:


I also don't see how you can call Philip Rivers a great pick for the Chargers when they already had Drew frickin Brees on the roster in only his third year.

Here's a hypothetical for you: Instead of Rivers, what if the Chargers drafted Larry Fitzgerald?

Drew Brees, Ladanian Tomlinson, Larry Fitzgerald, Antonio Gates.

That might have been a pretty good team.



Who called Rivers a great pick?



I was responding to bw, who said Rivers was a better pick QB than Manning, which I would consider a great pick.


i think they were both great picks, players and QBs. And would have Manning as the better one despite all the other variables that go into winning superbowls...simply because Eli can show has as the QB for 2 of them.
Wentz looks like a good pick...  
Britt in VA : 5/21/2018 10:37 am : link
and the Eagles had the CONVICTION to trade up for him, but if you read about him you understand why, he checks/checked all the boxes. But even then, does it give you pause that Nick Foles stepped right in after Wentz was hurt and they didn't skip a beat?

Goff had a nice sophomore season. Was he worth the first overall pick? Time will tell.
RE: I'm pretty..  
Big Blue '56 : 5/21/2018 10:41 am : link
In comment 13969724 FatMan in Charlotte said:
Quote:
sure if Darnold gets off to a Sanchez-like start, even if it results in a Sanchez-like finish, the first few years will be really annoying around here.


As opposed to being as placid as it is now?
LOL..  
FatMan in Charlotte : 5/21/2018 10:44 am : link
good point.

On the Goff situation, we'll have a nice case study to look at with regards to he and Gurley.

If Gurley gets injured and the Rams struggle, it might show what the main driver was in their success last year. If Goff continues to develop, he'll be shown as a good pick.

They were terrible two years ago and both Goff and Gurley struggled. Was it the OL sucking or a combination of learning the game and a poor OL?
RE: LOL..  
Big Blue '56 : 5/21/2018 10:54 am : link
In comment 13969776 FatMan in Charlotte said:
Quote:
good point.

On the Goff situation, we'll have a nice case study to look at with regards to he and Gurley.

If Gurley gets injured and the Rams struggle, it might show what the main driver was in their success last year. If Goff continues to develop, he'll be shown as a good pick.

They were terrible two years ago and both Goff and Gurley struggled. Was it the OL sucking or a combination of learning the game and a poor OL?


Agreed. Of course the PC was much better than it was under Fisher
RE: RE: The debate is whether there was a true....  
UberAlias : 5/21/2018 11:12 am : link
In comment 13969721 JonC said:
Quote:
In comment 13969696 Britt in VA said:


Quote:


lock of a "franchise" QB available in this draft.

That remains to be seen.




Picking the legit franchise QB in the rare air of a #2 overall pick would be optimal.

But, I'd agree it doesn't look like that prospect was present this year. Plenty of other ways to build a SB winning team ...

Time will tell, indeed.
Regarding doesn't look like that prospect was present... that remains to be seen. There is much to suggest that Darnold was at least a very viable option. I've been told the Jets were thrilled to have Darnold available @3. It was also reported he was top on Denver's board. He was the #1 guy on Cleveland's board from beginning of the college season through the end, and was more a matter of Mayfield blowing them away when it came to the in person phase that he jumped ahead of Darnold. And although the Giants never reached a consensus, he did have his supports in the organization.

So yes, that is not how the Giants board lined up, but it is not like there is universal acceptance among the professionals that that guy wasn't there. Only that there was not such a consensus in the Giants room.
Denver was trying to trade out of their pick.....  
Britt in VA : 5/21/2018 11:13 am : link
in the two weeks leading up to the draft. Doesn't make a lot of sense if Darnold was at the top of their board. Shouldn't they have been trying to trade up?
RE: Wentz looks like a good pick...  
giantstock : 5/21/2018 11:14 am : link
In comment 13969765 Britt in VA said:
Quote:
and the Eagles had the CONVICTION to trade up for him, but if you read about him you understand why, he checks/checked all the boxes. But even then, does it give you pause that Nick Foles stepped right in after Wentz was hurt and they didn't skip a beat?

Goff had a nice sophomore season. Was he worth the first overall pick? Time will tell.


You're out of your mind.

First you speak of "conviction" -- how you've twisted that to having any relevance to our conversation is mind-boggling.

Secondly, you're the only one I've heard so far to suggest anything about Wentz and "pause."

Third- what you've seen of Noles- he checks your boxes doesn't he? What about Super Bowl winner Jeff Hostetler?

Fourth-- the jury may still be out on Goff but after year two he looks like it. You do realize when you draft a QB more than likely year 1 or year 2 they aren't going to prove they are a franhcise QB if you don't think Goff is one, right? SO wiht you practically eveyr QB doesn't fit your grade.

Fifth-- Goff's 2nd year ratign has suprassed Luck's best year. SO pelase exaplin which "boxes" Goff has not checked off for you?

IMO you are making things up to justify the rb selection. Would you say right now Goff is worthy of the number. Giving pause with Wentz is just too much. And which boxes does he check as a franchise QB that Goff doesn't in your view? I'm not saying Goff is better. But you brought up the boxes. WHich boxes means Goff is questionable" while Wentz is? Though you can't even tell em 100% that Wentz is which I think absurd.

As far as the draft-- imo Goff was worth it - in that you can't know 100%. But right now what we know-- are you going to say you wouldn't have taken him number 2?
RE: Denver was trying to trade out of their pick.....  
UberAlias : 5/21/2018 11:16 am : link
In comment 13969827 Britt in VA said:
Quote:
in the two weeks leading up to the draft. Doesn't make a lot of sense if Darnold was at the top of their board. Shouldn't they have been trying to trade up?
Maybe. Maybe they did explore that. NYG admitted they received some calls. But I think it's clear Cleveland and Jets were both going QB and I don't think anyone expected him to fall pas both of those teams.
I'm not making anything up.  
Britt in VA : 5/21/2018 11:17 am : link
And I would have been fine with taking a QB at number two, if it was somebody they had conviction for. They didn't.
RE: I'm pretty..  
barens : 5/21/2018 11:17 am : link
In comment 13969724 FatMan in Charlotte said:
Quote:
sure if Darnold gets off to a Sanchez-like start, even if it results in a Sanchez-like finish, the first few years will be really annoying around here.


Well, the difference would be Sanchez had a great team around him, and Darnold I feel pretty good about saying he's got a shitty team around him right now. That said, I'd be pretty shocked if Darnold came in right away and lit up the NFL, seems pretty unlikely.
RE: I'm not making anything up.  
UberAlias : 5/21/2018 11:18 am : link
In comment 13969836 Britt in VA said:
Quote:
And I would have been fine with taking a QB at number two, if it was somebody they had conviction for. They didn't.
Yep. And they got a really good player. So let's see how it plays out.
RE: RE: Denver was trying to trade out of their pick.....  
Britt in VA : 5/21/2018 11:20 am : link
In comment 13969833 UberAlias said:
Quote:
In comment 13969827 Britt in VA said:


Quote:


in the two weeks leading up to the draft. Doesn't make a lot of sense if Darnold was at the top of their board. Shouldn't they have been trying to trade up?

Maybe. Maybe they did explore that. NYG admitted they received some calls. But I think it's clear Cleveland and Jets were both going QB and I don't think anyone expected him to fall pas both of those teams.


I think the value for a trade up wasn't there, and to me, that speaks to what people thought of these QB's.

Washington traded 3 1st's and a 2nd to trade up from 6 to 2 in 2012.

This year, the Jets traded 3 2nd rounders to move from 6 to 3.
RE: Also....  
bw in dc : 5/21/2018 11:21 am : link
In comment 13969693 Britt in VA said:
Quote:
I also don't see how you can call Philip Rivers a great pick for the Chargers when they already had Drew frickin Brees on the roster in only his third year.



Uh, Breed was not Brees when Rivers was drafted. Let's not paint this picture that this was Brees/HoF Version.

Ironically, he blossomed in 2004 when Rivers was drafted.
RE: RE: Also....  
Britt in VA : 5/21/2018 11:23 am : link
In comment 13969848 bw in dc said:
Quote:
In comment 13969693 Britt in VA said:


Quote:


I also don't see how you can call Philip Rivers a great pick for the Chargers when they already had Drew frickin Brees on the roster in only his third year.





Uh, Breed was not Brees when Rivers was drafted. Let's not paint this picture that this was Brees/HoF Version.

Ironically, he blossomed in 2004 when Rivers was drafted.


They were impatient with him. He was only in his 3rd year when they gave up on him.
Another organizational failure for the Chargers  
Britt in VA : 5/21/2018 11:24 am : link
.
RE: RE: Wentz looks like a good pick...  
Jimmy Googs : 5/21/2018 11:31 am : link
In comment 13969829 giantstock said:
Quote:
In comment 13969765 Britt in VA said:


Quote:


and the Eagles had the CONVICTION to trade up for him, but if you read about him you understand why, he checks/checked all the boxes. But even then, does it give you pause that Nick Foles stepped right in after Wentz was hurt and they didn't skip a beat?

Goff had a nice sophomore season. Was he worth the first overall pick? Time will tell.



You're out of your mind.

First you speak of "conviction" -- how you've twisted that to having any relevance to our conversation is mind-boggling.

Secondly, you're the only one I've heard so far to suggest anything about Wentz and "pause."

Third- what you've seen of Noles- he checks your boxes doesn't he? What about Super Bowl winner Jeff Hostetler?

Fourth-- the jury may still be out on Goff but after year two he looks like it. You do realize when you draft a QB more than likely year 1 or year 2 they aren't going to prove they are a franhcise QB if you don't think Goff is one, right? SO wiht you practically eveyr QB doesn't fit your grade.

Fifth-- Goff's 2nd year ratign has suprassed Luck's best year. SO pelase exaplin which "boxes" Goff has not checked off for you?

IMO you are making things up to justify the rb selection. Would you say right now Goff is worthy of the number. Giving pause with Wentz is just too much. And which boxes does he check as a franchise QB that Goff doesn't in your view? I'm not saying Goff is better. But you brought up the boxes. WHich boxes means Goff is questionable" while Wentz is? Though you can't even tell em 100% that Wentz is which I think absurd.

As far as the draft-- imo Goff was worth it - in that you can't know 100%. But right now what we know-- are you going to say you wouldn't have taken him number 2?


strong post..but well done
RE: RE: RE: Also....  
bw in dc : 5/21/2018 11:32 am : link
In comment 13969854 Britt in VA said:
Quote:

They were impatient with him. He was only in his 3rd year when they gave up on him.


It's easy to say in hindsight knowing what we know now. At the time, Brees was a shorter than ideal QB with an average arm.
RE: RE: RE: RE: Also....  
Britt in VA : 5/21/2018 11:33 am : link
In comment 13969871 bw in dc said:
Quote:
In comment 13969854 Britt in VA said:


Quote:



They were impatient with him. He was only in his 3rd year when they gave up on him.



It's easy to say in hindsight knowing what we know now. At the time, Brees was a shorter than ideal QB with an average arm.


They took him at the top of the 2nd round right after they drafted Tomlinson. They must have seen something in him to draft him there.
Oh, and by the way....  
Britt in VA : 5/21/2018 11:34 am : link
Quote:
First you speak of "conviction" -- how you've twisted that to having any relevance to our conversation is mind-boggling.


Having conviction is not relevant to the conversation?

Did you listen to Dave Gettleman talk about QB's at all this offseason?
RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: Also....  
bw in dc : 5/21/2018 11:42 am : link
In comment 13969875 Britt in VA said:
Quote:

They took him at the top of the 2nd round right after they drafted Tomlinson. They must have seen something in him to draft him there.


I understand the history. But a lot of teams have invested high picks in QBs and then looked for other solutions after three years of mixed, at best in Brees's case, results. Brees was awful in 2003 and lost his job to Doug Flutie.

Again, you are looking back with a lens knowing what you know now.

Conviction: a firmly held belief or opinion  
Britt in VA : 5/21/2018 11:43 am : link
Before the draft.

Quote:
"If you take a guy just to take a guy, especially at the quarterback position, and he fails, you set yourself back five years," Gettleman told reporters at the Senior Bowl last week. "You set yourself back five years because there are teams that are in what I call quarterback hell. They've got quality defense, they've got a good special teams, and they're going 7-9, 8-8, 9-7. And now if there is a legitimate guy, they've got to trade up and give away the farm to get the guy."

"With the second pick, we're going to take the best player," Gettleman said. "They screamed at me in Carolina, 'You've got to draft a tackle, you've got to draft a tackle.' If the value's not there when you pick, you're going to make a mistake. You'll make a mistake. We're going to set ourselves up so that we can take the best player available. And if the best player available is a quarterback, then that's what we're going to do."


That's having conviction.

After the draft:

Quote:
That tells you your answer right now, Gettleman, the Giants general manager, said Thursday night. If you have to try to make yourself fall in love with a player, it wrong. You will never be happy with the pick. You shouldn't have to talk yourself into a guy.


No conviction.
And it's totally relevant.  
Britt in VA : 5/21/2018 11:50 am : link
Maybe the most relevant thing when discussing why we didn't take a QB at number 2.
For every Goff or Wentz I can list ten other high draft QB's  
Britt in VA : 5/21/2018 11:51 am : link
that didn't amount to anything.
And Goff is a stretch at this point.  
Britt in VA : 5/21/2018 11:51 am : link
.
DG Quotes  
Jimmy Googs : 5/21/2018 11:52 am : link
Anybody (else) think DG was all-in already on Barkley and was making/sending these comments to his crew to convince him otherwise?
RE: DG Quotes  
bw in dc : 5/21/2018 11:55 am : link
In comment 13969918 Jimmy Googs said:
Quote:
Anybody (else) think DG was all-in already on Barkley and was making/sending these comments to his crew to convince him otherwise?


I do. I have surmised the same exact thing here.



Agent’s Take: Recent draft history shows first-round QBs  
Britt in VA : 5/21/2018 11:55 am : link
are more likely to fail:

Quote:
It's conceivable that four quarterbacks will be selected in Round 1 this year for the first time since 2012

by Joel Corry

Apr 17, 2017 • 5 min read

Those who do not learn from history are doomed to repeat it.

NFL executives making decisions about first-round draft choices should heed this warning particularly when there isn't a strong group of quarterbacks available like this year.

The search for the ever elusive franchise quarterback drives NFL teams to select passers higher than they should. Sustaining success in the NFL is hard enough, but infinitely more difficult without good quarterback play.

The 2017 quarterback class doesn't have any players on par with those in the 2015 and 2016 drafts when passers were taken with the first- and second-overall picks. Despite this, it's conceivable that four quarterbacks will be selected in the first round for the first time since 2012.

North Carolina's Mitchell Trubisky, Clemson's Deshaun Watson, Texas Tech's Patrick Mahones, California's Davis Webb and Notre Dame's DeShone Kizer are considered as potential first-round picks by a majority of draft prognosticators. Trubisky is rumored to be a candidate to be taken first overall by the Browns even though he only started one season in college and Texas A&M defensive end Myles Garrett is a safer bet. Other first-round spots where quarterbacks could be a possibility are sixth (Jets), 10th (Bills) 12th (Browns-if Trubisky isn't first), 13th (Cardinals), 25th (Texans), 27th (Chiefs) and 32nd (Saints). Watson is generally considered as the next best prospect after Trubisky.

The first round of the 2004 NFL Draft is modern day gold standard for finding long term solutions at quarterback. Eli Manning, Philip Rivers, Ben Roethlisberger and J.P. Losman were selected first, fourth, 11th and 22nd. The first three have spent their entire NFL careers with the same team. Manning, a four-time Pro Bowler, has won two Super Bowls with the Giants in six playoff appearances. He was named MVP of both Super Bowl victories. Rivers, who has earned six Pro Bowl berths, has gotten the Chargers to the playoffs five times in 13 seasons. The Steelers have won two Super Bowls in three appearances with Roethlisberger under center. The five-time Pro Bowler has been to playoffs nine times as a Steeler. Losman had an eight-year NFL career where he started 33 games with the Bills, who drafted him. His biggest professional football achievement was leading the Las Vegas Locomotives to a championship in the now defunct United Football League's inaugural season in 2009.

The 2004 quarterback draft class is an anomaly as the chart below listing the 26 quarterbacks taken in the first round in the last 10 drafts demonstrates.

Quarterbacks taken in the first round
2007
1: JaMarcus Russell, Raiders
22: Brady Quinn, Browns

2008
3: Matt Ryan, Falcons
18: Joe Flacco, Ravens

2009
1: Matthew Stafford, Lions
5: Mark Sanchez, Jets
17: Josh Freeman, Buccaneers

2010
1: Sam Bradford, Rams
25: Tim Tebow, Broncos

2011
1: Cam Newton, Panthers
8: Jake Locker, Titans
10: Blaine Gabbert, Jaguars
12: Christian Ponder, Vikings

2012
1: Andrew Luck, Colts
2: Robert Griffin III, Redskins
8: Ryan Tannehill, Dolphins
22: Brandon Weeden, Browns

2013
16: EJ Manuel, Bills

2014
3: Blake Bortles, Jaguars
22: Johnny Manziel, Browns
32: Teddy Bridgewater, Vikings

2015
1: Jameis Winston, Buccaneers
2: Marcus Mariota, Titans

2016
1: Jared Goff, Rams
2: Carson Wentz, Eagles
26: Paxton Lynch, Broncos

For every successful first-round quarterback pick in recent years, there are almost twice as many failures. A conclusion can be drawn with 19 of the first-round picks. Only seven, or 36.8 percent, arguably could be considered a success.

Sam Bradford and Ryan Tannehill get categorized as successes under a broad definition of quarterbacks that could consistently put a team in position to make the playoffs more often than not under favorable circumstances or surrounded by the right pieces rather than being the catalyst of a playoff berth.

Joe Flacco is the only first-round quarterback drafted in the last 10 years to win a Super Bowl. He had a stellar postseason run during the 2012 season in which he threw 11 touchdowns without an interception and had a 117.2 passer rating en route to being named Super Bowl XLVII MVP. This led to Flacco briefly becoming the NFL's highest-paid player with the six-year, $120.6 million contract containing $51 million in guarantees he signed in 2013.

Matt Ryan and Cam Newton have earned NFL MVP honors in each of the last two seasons while leading their respective teams to the Super Bowl.

Andrew Luck, arguably the biggest can't-miss quarterback prospect since John Elway in 1983, found instant success. The Colts went from a league-worst 2-14 record in 2011 before Luck's arrival to the playoffs in 2012 with 11 wins. Luck re-set the NFL pay scale with the five-year extension he received from the Colts last offseason. The contract averages $24.594 million per year and contains $87 million in guarantees, of which $47 million was fully guaranteed at signing.

Matthew Stafford is in line to become the NFL's first $25 million per year player at some point this offseason after demonstrating he could thrive without six-time Pro Bowl wide receiver Calvin Johnson, who prematurely retired after the 2015 season.

A common denominator with Luck, Newton, Ryan and Stafford is they were top-three picks. Ryan is the only one that wasn't the first pick of his draft.

JaMarcus Russell is at the other end of the spectrum. He is widely considered as one of the biggest draft mistakes in NFL history. Russell only produced seven victories in 25 starts. He was benched midway during the 2009 season, his final season with the Raiders. He became the poster boy for a flawed rookie compensation system, which has been changed, that rewarded unproven high draft picks like Pro Bowlers. Russell made $39.365 million during his three NFL years, all in Oakland.

The jury is still out on the eight quarterbacks taken in the first round of the last three drafts except Manziel, who imploded, because it's too soon to reach a conclusion about these players. Jameis Winston and Marcus Mariota could eventually be thought of as best quarterbacks to go one-two of a draft in league history. Blake Bortles is at an early career crossroads after a disappointing 2016 season. There's no guarantee that the Jaguars will pick up his fifth year option for 2018 worth $19.053 million by the May 2 deadline. Teddy Bridgewater is trying to rebound from the career threatening knee injury he sustained last preseason.

Teams may be better served exercising more restraint with quarterbacks in the first round instead of reaching for a player because it's the game's most important position. There have been too many first-round quarterbacks that haven't panned out for the drafting team in recent years.

First-round quarterbacks that aren't overdrafted can pay dividends. Seventy-three of the 120 playoff teams (60.8 percent) over the last 10 years have gotten to the postseason with quarterbacks taken in the first round. Forty-four times the quarterback was a top-five pick. Additionally, six of the last 10 Super Bowl winners have had quarterbacks that were first-round picks.


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Darnold  
fanofthejets : 5/21/2018 11:56 am : link
There was no Luck or Elway here but overall this will likely be the best class for a very long time. I think as time goes by it'll prove to be a much more accomplished class than 2017 and certainly 2019. There's nothing coming down the pike next year QB wise

The top 4 QB's taken (Mayfield, Darnold, Rosen, Allen) all have the upside to be within the top 5 qb's in the league if they develop well. That probably won't happen though.

I think what excites Jets fans with Darnold is that he's not scatterbrained or too wrapped up in being a celebrity/coverboy like Sanchez. He's steady, confident and poised and seems to be a much harder worker. Sanchez at 23 had a slow processor, made bad pre snap reads, didn't keep his eyes down field, could be baited into bad throws, and had no feel for the pocket (and didn't climb it like SD). Darnold at just 20 has all of that.

The NFL nowadays is a league where backs are disposable, always get hurt, and are rotated in and out. Cycled through by teams every three years or so. And it's a league that constantly takes step to make sure it's QB driven and that they're well protected. I don't see greatness in this class but I think it will be a dynamic and successful one. Darnold reminds me of a little bit of Roethlisberger and a little bit of Romo. If he can give us play like that over the next 14-15 years I'd be elated. I think he will.
The mantra..  
FatMan in Charlotte : 5/21/2018 12:06 pm : link
that backs are disposable and easily replaced really doesn't hold true.

The Giants haven't had a serviceable back since Jacobs and Bradshaw.

Part of the Seahawks struggles come from trying to replace Lynch.

The Redskins keep rotating guys in and out and haven't been able to replace Alfred Morris' production.

The Ravens have had a couple guys show promise and still can't get the output they did from Ray Rice, a huge issue on missing the playoffs.

There are a lot of excellent RB's out there, and great RB's do elevate their team. Especially in the past few years where we've seen playoff teams get pushes from a running attack.
RE: The mantra..  
fanofthejets : 5/21/2018 12:17 pm : link
In comment 13969950 FatMan in Charlotte said:
Quote:
that backs are disposable and easily replaced really doesn't hold true.

The Giants haven't had a serviceable back since Jacobs and Bradshaw.

Part of the Seahawks struggles come from trying to replace Lynch.

The Redskins keep rotating guys in and out and haven't been able to replace Alfred Morris' production.

The Ravens have had a couple guys show promise and still can't get the output they did from Ray Rice, a huge issue on missing the playoffs.

There are a lot of excellent RB's out there, and great RB's do elevate their team. Especially in the past few years where we've seen playoff teams get pushes from a running attack.


Oh sure a great back can really elevate a team. No doubt. But you also have to take into consideration their relatively short peaks. Morris had a dynamic rookie season. But that was his peak and he's steadily declined since. Ray Rice turned in 4 great years and was pretty much done in 2013. Plus you always seem to find very good backs in later rounds. Arian Foster went undrafted. Michael Turner 5th round. Gore 3rd round, Charles 3rd round, Lamar Miller 4th round. But you know if Barkley is as special as Gettleman says and churns out seasons where he hits 2,000+ yards total rushing/receiving then it will be hard to argue with the pick, because I do think Eli still has it and that will just open up the field for the Giants to use more of their weaponry
Disposable probably not the best term to use  
Jimmy Googs : 5/21/2018 12:17 pm : link
but clearly lower on the value-chain based on any number of views...
RE: RE: RE: The debate is whether there was a true....  
JonC : 5/21/2018 12:43 pm : link
In comment 13969821 UberAlias said:
Quote:
In comment 13969721 JonC said:


Quote:


In comment 13969696 Britt in VA said:


Quote:


lock of a "franchise" QB available in this draft.

That remains to be seen.




Picking the legit franchise QB in the rare air of a #2 overall pick would be optimal.

But, I'd agree it doesn't look like that prospect was present this year. Plenty of other ways to build a SB winning team ...

Time will tell, indeed.

Regarding doesn't look like that prospect was present... that remains to be seen. There is much to suggest that Darnold was at least a very viable option. I've been told the Jets were thrilled to have Darnold available @3. It was also reported he was top on Denver's board. He was the #1 guy on Cleveland's board from beginning of the college season through the end, and was more a matter of Mayfield blowing them away when it came to the in person phase that he jumped ahead of Darnold. And although the Giants never reached a consensus, he did have his supports in the organization.

So yes, that is not how the Giants board lined up, but it is not like there is universal acceptance among the professionals that that guy wasn't there. Only that there was not such a consensus in the Giants room.


Uber, I've been banging the same drums, we're on the same page. I was calling for Darnold since his marvelous 2016 season. On draft night, I'd heard the same thing I'd heard in early March ... the board was SB, Chubb, Nelson.

At the end of the day, I've moved on to the hoping they know more than we do stage and rooting for SB to be the motor they build around, and that their top player is indeed the best player.

I do have concerns they're banking too heavily on Eli, but the pick's been made and it's time to go to war.
RE: The mantra..  
Coach Red Beaulieu : 5/21/2018 12:48 pm : link
In comment 13969950 FatMan in Charlotte said:
Quote:
that backs are disposable and easily replaced really doesn't hold true.

The Giants haven't had a serviceable back since Jacobs and Bradshaw.

Part of the Seahawks struggles come from trying to replace Lynch.

The Redskins keep rotating guys in and out and haven't been able to replace Alfred Morris' production.

The Ravens have had a couple guys show promise and still can't get the output they did from Ray Rice, a huge issue on missing the playoffs.

There are a lot of excellent RB's out there, and great RB's do elevate their team. Especially in the past few years where we've seen playoff teams get pushes from a running attack.

Lagarette Blount has won 3 of the last 4 SBs.
RE: RE: RE: RE: The debate is whether there was a true....  
UberAlias : 5/21/2018 1:40 pm : link
In comment 13970034 JonC said:
Quote:
In comment 13969821 UberAlias said:


Quote:


In comment 13969721 JonC said:


Quote:


In comment 13969696 Britt in VA said:


Quote:


lock of a "franchise" QB available in this draft.

That remains to be seen.




Picking the legit franchise QB in the rare air of a #2 overall pick would be optimal.

But, I'd agree it doesn't look like that prospect was present this year. Plenty of other ways to build a SB winning team ...

Time will tell, indeed.

Regarding doesn't look like that prospect was present... that remains to be seen. There is much to suggest that Darnold was at least a very viable option. I've been told the Jets were thrilled to have Darnold available @3. It was also reported he was top on Denver's board. He was the #1 guy on Cleveland's board from beginning of the college season through the end, and was more a matter of Mayfield blowing them away when it came to the in person phase that he jumped ahead of Darnold. And although the Giants never reached a consensus, he did have his supports in the organization.

So yes, that is not how the Giants board lined up, but it is not like there is universal acceptance among the professionals that that guy wasn't there. Only that there was not such a consensus in the Giants room.



Uber, I've been banging the same drums, we're on the same page. I was calling for Darnold since his marvelous 2016 season. On draft night, I'd heard the same thing I'd heard in early March ... the board was SB, Chubb, Nelson.

At the end of the day, I've moved on to the hoping they know more than we do stage and rooting for SB to be the motor they build around, and that their top player is indeed the best player.

I do have concerns they're banking too heavily on Eli, but the pick's been made and it's time to go to war.
Well said, sir. Totally agree.
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