I remember the breathless threads singing Elon Musk's praises when this thing was announced - GAME CHANGER! Thousands of people lining up to pay a grand to reserve a car that didn't even exist yet!
How's that working out? Not too good, it seems. From Edmunds' long term test car review:
Where we drove our long-term 2017 Tesla Model 3 in April is a bit less relevant than what happened while we were driving it. We did local commuting and a few freeway journeys, sure, but everywhere we went the car was fraught with problems. Sixteen weeks into ownership, we've had so many issues with our Model 3 that we started a shared Google Doc to catalog various warning messages, necessary screen resets and general failures.
Forget that this is a "cutting-edge" EV with a cult following. That's irrelevant if Tesla wants to be anything more than a footnote in automotive history. Our Model 3 cost us $56,000, and by that standard alone, the ownership experience so far has been unacceptable. But this is no ordinary $56K car. We put down a $1,000 deposit to get on a two-year waiting list for this car and it's falling apart. |
I said it at the time and it's proving true: Tesla as a mass-production automaker was always doomed to fail.
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At 50k+, the bar is set pretty high.
It's also likely that by the time the $35k version is released, they'll no longer qualify for the $7500 tax credit. Glad we got to subsidize $100k+ cars for the rich!
It's all about the robotics and the flexibility within the factory systems.
As opposed to factory built to build the (whatever)_ it will be able to build almost any vehicle within a broad size range.
I’m all about what Tesla is doing but I was skeptical of this “affordable” model and won’t touch this tech for atleast another 5 years.
He scammed so many people claiming it was a 35k electric car when reality is the car is 50+K.
He has scammed thousands of people. I wonder if they can get their $1k back?
I realize that changes are required in the auto industry both from a manufacturing perspective and effect on the Earth. And as much as I want to say 'i respect what Musk is doing' a good part of me believes that Musk is just another egomaniacal maniac who really doesn't give a f$#k. if you lose $10-15k on each car made I'm not sure how that's viable.
If people want to drive a status symbol good for them, but what do I know I just drive Hondas
He scammed so many people claiming it was a 35k electric car when reality is the car is 50+K.
He has scammed thousands of people. I wonder if they can get their $1k back?
The $1K downpayment is fully refundable.
The bigger scam is those paying $3k extra (on top of the $5k they pay for "Autopilot") for the "full self driving" capability that is supposed to be available at a "future" date.
Correct, and I believe the $35k was after the $7500 rebate.
I prefer my cars to speed up when there's a car stopped in front of me!
Basically, Elon is an engineer who is greatly overstretched. Tesla's prior models were more at the boutique level of manufacturing and are excellent innovative cars with higher than average build quality faults compared to your average Toyota. The technology, circuitry, and electrical drivetrain performance are all next level for consumer level cars. The upcoming roadster will win over the auto enthusiasts from a sheer performance perspective (if it's ever mass produced), even moreso than a P90D.
Elon is absolutely notorious for over promising on deadlines and the Model 3 is his most visible example/failure. I honestly don't think he's met a public deadline to date. This is likely due to his obvious optimisim, but also because he is such a genius he expects his peers to operate at an unrealistically high level and refuses to accept that this isn't going to happen. He also doesn't pay people very well and justifies this by seeing positions in his companies as being apart of an innovative endeavor.
The Model 3 is an undeniable blunder. There's a company which is paid for their industry expertise by reverse engineering major sophisticated products such as automobiles. They stated the Model 3 shows a huge lack of physical assembly quality control, such as horrible and inconsistent build tolerances which you'd normally find on a poorly hand made car from decades ago. They summize that auto industry experts in the field of robotics and automation likelt weren't brought in, or if they were, they failed to properly implement the lessons learned by American auto companies when Japan came in and killed Ford, GM, and Chrysler on build quality decades ago.
On the other hand, Tesla's electronics and battery tech were at the top industry wide. If they can learn how to build a traditional high quality vehicle and then integrate their great tech, they will succeed. Who knows if it's too late for a full recovery though, as I wouldn't be surprised is Tesla ultimately folds or is just bought up for it's IP. Either way, we will all ultimately benefit, because the standard is being raised on the tech side of things and the larger competitors who already know how to mass manufacture vehicles will eventually catch up on the tech innovations.
SpaceX as a company is being run much better and is the more exciting company in my opinion. There only failure so far is missing Elon's consistently over optimistic deadlines. For example, his current estimate of people on Mars in 2024 is more likely to be 2028 or even a bit later (the landing window is once every two years based on orbits).
Anyway, my point is you can call Tesla's products and perhaps even the entire company a failure, but Elon himself will continue to give the world some exciting stuff for decades to come. Even with bad newsz you should remain pretty excited on the whole. Just don't get suckered in the mean time by trusting his deadlines or optimistic promises.
Basically, Elon is an engineer who is greatly overstretched. Tesla's prior models were more at the boutique level of manufacturing and are excellent innovative cars with higher than average build quality faults compared to your average Toyota. The technology, circuitry, and electrical drivetrain performance are all next level for consumer level cars. The upcoming roadster will win over the auto enthusiasts from a sheer performance perspective (if it's ever mass produced), even moreso than a P90D.
Those models better have higher build quality than an average Toyota. They cost 3x an average Toyota. They should be compared to other cars costing >$100K, not everyday Toyotas.
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I follow Elon closer than the average person, as I have interests in both cars and SpaceX.
Basically, Elon is an engineer who is greatly overstretched. Tesla's prior models were more at the boutique level of manufacturing and are excellent innovative cars with higher than average build quality faults compared to your average Toyota. The technology, circuitry, and electrical drivetrain performance are all next level for consumer level cars. The upcoming roadster will win over the auto enthusiasts from a sheer performance perspective (if it's ever mass produced), even moreso than a P90D.
Those models better have higher build quality than an average Toyota. They cost 3x an average Toyota. They should be compared to other cars costing >$100K, not everyday Toyotas.
He wrote higher than average faults, which is true. The roadsters are plagued with quality control problems, which is why I was always skeptical about the Model 3 and mass production.
I have no confidence in Tesla.
Because Tesla first caught on when the iPad was considered the pinnacle of elegance, intuitiveness and luxury- the shiniest thing among shiny things.
Tesla, too, had to be a shiny thing if they wanted to convince the JetSet to spend Porsche money on their family sedan.
Today, when Amazon will sell you a kindle for $49, we are not as entranced by touchscreens for their own sake, and preferring physical buttons and knobs in cars to control Air, Radio and accessories up front is a perfectly reasonable position. However, the big touch display has become Tesla's calling card.
There is one utilitarian benefit to the touchscreen, and lack of physical controls. The car and interior are almost infinitely customizable and updateable through software updates.
I have no confidence in Tesla.
If you're really interested in a Nissan Leaf, you can get a used one for well under 10k now with the battery still under warranty.
You’d think. But the AVERAGE price of a new car sold in the US is $36,270.
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In theory it should save you on maintenance, but from many (anecdotal) reports, Tesla's have more maintenance issues than conventional cars. And there's no way the gas savings comes anywhere close to premium paid for these, assuming there are any savings with gas in the $2.50-$3.00 range.
Model 3 75 kWh battery (~350 miles): @ $0.26 per kWh (Supercharger cost) = $19.50 for 350 miles
Chevy Cruze (my car) gets 35 mpg: 10 gallons @ $3.00* = $35 per 350 miles
Savings per year (15,000 miles): ~$650
It would take over 30 years to cover the >$20k difference between a Model 3 and a Cruze. Granted the Model 3 is a much nicer car, but I'm sure you can find BMW's (other similarly sized luxury vehicles) for $10k less than a Model 3 with gas mileage comparable to a Cruze.
*highest gas price in several years
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A rather small percentage of the population can afford to spend that much on a car. I'd be surprised if it was more than 25%.
You’d think. But the AVERAGE price of a new car sold in the US is $36,270. Link - ( New Window )
Credit's a beautiful thing!
Ford F-Series is the best selling vehicle and it starts at $27,705 with it's lowest end model. Higher end models can cost as much as $60k!
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To answer my own question.....17.1 mill new, 42.7 used. Used cars have an average sale price of $19,400 in 2017.
Teslas are niche cars. He can't compete on volume, the overhead involved with building and testing those cars is too high to be able to sell one effectively for below $50k (and probably quite a bit higher).
I hope he can turn it around, not so much for Musk but for the thousands of people who work there and for the premise, which I think is a good thing. Maybe not environmentally the slam dunk that some people make it out to be, but longer term IMO the strategic direction that all cars should be heading in.
To answer my own question.....17.1 mill new, 42.7 used. Used cars have an average sale price of $19,400 in 2017.
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New-car prices have risen in step with the economy since the Great Recession and the average price is now beyond the means of most median-income Americans, says Bankrate.com, which based its calculations on the 20/4/10 rule of a 20 percent down payment, four-year loan and payments of principal, interest and insurance making 10 percent of a household’s income.
This is very much based on personal preference and subjective. I'm an engineer, and I look at a car like any other machine I own. I'll drive a car until I've run it into the ground, and I can usually afford much better cars than I actually drive (because IMO, leaving an expensive car on the street in NYC is about as wise as leaving a big pile of money there instead).
I know people who literally make half the money I do, and they drive around in luxury cars they can't afford. I don't want to judge them, and to each their own, but it seems awfully stupid from a financial perspective to me.
All are software issues that can be addressed by over the air software updates
accept for the vanity mirror
so the one big hardware issue is the vanity mirror became unglued
I’m shocked that a car dealer would have bad things to say about cars he doesn’t sell.
All are software issues that can be addressed by over the air software updates
accept for the vanity mirror
so the one big hardware issue is the vanity mirror became unglued
How did I know that the #1 slobbering fanboy would make an appearance to attempt some damage control?
This is very much based on personal preference and subjective. I'm an engineer, and I look at a car like any other machine I own. I'll drive a car until I've run it into the ground, and I can usually afford much better cars than I actually drive (because IMO, leaving an expensive car on the street in NYC is about as wise as leaving a big pile of money there instead).
I know people who literally make half the money I do, and they drive around in luxury cars they can't afford. I don't want to judge them, and to each their own, but it seems awfully stupid from a financial perspective to me.
Absolutely. A lot of this is the boom in leasing. Lets a person get into a car they could never afford the payments on if they purchased. But it costs more in the long run since the payments never end.
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And the manager was badmouthing their all electric car all over the place. He said the stated range is only 100 miles, but if you turn on the radio it drops to 85. And it takes 21 hours to recharge. He says it's a glorified golf cart.
I’m shocked that a car dealer would have bad things to say about cars he doesn’t sell.
I think he meant the dealer was bashing Ford's EV
Absolutely. A lot of this is the boom in leasing. Lets a person get into a car they could never afford the payments on if they purchased. But it costs more in the long run since the payments never end.
You're not kidding - I was out two weeks ago with some friends, and someone mentioned that he just leased the same car that I did.
I'm self employed and use a car for work, so for me it's a writeoff. My car was much better equipped, and I found out his lease payments were higher than mine with the same out of pocket, despite maybe a 10k difference in MSRP.
So I asked him - what did the car cost? His reply, with a blank stare - 'I leased the car, there was no cost'.
This is what happens when the American educational system goes down the drain.
Greg - pretty much the same here. I drive to Jersey and CT every now and then for work. The rest of the time, it's local trips in Brooklyn. I'm in my car for less than 30 min a day. It's not a matter of not having the money, but if I wanted to piss it away, why would I do it on a car that I spend so little time in? It's no different for them either, at best they're in their car an hour a day. It's status symbol and nothing else IMO.
It'd be one thing if I had a nice Wrangler and I was driving offroad, or had some open roads to open up a nice Porsche or Corvette, but to drag around the kids on local streets?!
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But who has one? Casually reading about one is very different than actually owning it. For those that say that it is expensive have you factored the cost of ownership over a 5 year or 10year period? The savings on gas and maintenance are the true financial benefits for this car. A DC motor has many less moving parts then an internal combustion engine.
In theory it should save you on maintenance, but from many (anecdotal) reports, Tesla's have more maintenance issues than conventional cars. And there's no way the gas savings comes anywhere close to premium paid for these, assuming there are any savings with gas in the $2.50-$3.00 range.
Model 3 75 kWh battery (~350 miles): @ $0.26 per kWh (Supercharger cost) = $19.50 for 350 miles
Chevy Cruze (my car) gets 35 mpg: 10 gallons @ $3.00* = $35 per 350 miles
Savings per year (15,000 miles): ~$650
It would take over 30 years to cover the >$20k difference between a Model 3 and a Cruze. Granted the Model 3 is a much nicer car, but I'm sure you can find BMW's (other similarly sized luxury vehicles) for $10k less than a Model 3 with gas mileage comparable to a Cruze.
*highest gas price in several years
Most people would charge at home, charger at the super charger would be more infrequent for most people, so your math is off. Also, the Cruze is not in the same class as the model 3, performance wise. If you are in the market for a sedan in the 25-35K range, the model 3 starts to make a lot of sense, especially if you drive a lot like i do. I have one reserved. Totally agree though, if cost is your main concern, no need to look at the model 3.
Not really, not when you're not going to actually get a Model 2 for anything close to $35K.
IF the Model 3 was actually around $35K, I can see the lure, but (IIRC) the cheapest model sold to date is >$44K and I think that's before any options.
He manufacturers junk- what a shocker
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If you are in the market for a sedan in the 25-35K range, the model 3 starts to make a lot of sense
Not really, not when you're not going to actually get a Model 2 for anything close to $35K.
if you drive 120 miles 5x a week like I do, gas savings add up, as does the tax rebate if you are able to get it, lack of oil changes, emissions inspections, etc.
IF the Model 3 was actually around $35K, I can see the lure, but (IIRC) the cheapest model sold to date is >$44K and I think that's before any options.
Compared to a chevy cruz its a 15 year ROI. I don't think anyway is debating whether to buy a 17K chevy cruze or a model 3.
Again, the cost doesn't make sense for everyone, I get that. I don't have children, I don't need to worry about sending them to college etc.
Well, the Model X can beat the hemi performance wise. Likely at nearly double the price though.
why not address my comment instead of attacking me like a 3 year old?
all the "problems " on the Edmunds list are software related - except the vanity mirror.
- Tesla has had churn in their reservation list but there are still 450k reservations for model 3
the huge problem right now is supply Tesla can't build them fast enough . but now up to 3000k a week. ramping to 5k by July and 10k by September .. which means if you ordered a Model 3 today you might get it at the end of 2019. doesn't sound like a failure to me .
Every major auto manufacturer now had a Model 3 competitor either on drawing board or in pre production.
electric vehicles are coming =every year batteries get better and cheaper In 5 years a significant percentage of new cars sold will be electric which will completely disrupt the oil industry . saving the environment and closing the financial spigot to dictators in oil rich nations
so yea I am a fanboy
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in the market for a new car that the major manufacturers will have EV cars figured out so that 1. They can go a decent 300 or 400 miles without recharging and 2. They can produce them to be about the same price as a gas powered car. Cars like the Nissan Leaf that would probably sell for about 17K if gas powered are about 30K. Why would I want to pay double?
I have no confidence in Tesla.
If you're really interested in a Nissan Leaf, you can get a used one for well under 10k now with the battery still under warranty.
Btw, what is the expected life of the battery in an EV car? And, how much to replace it? You need to figure that in the operating costs.
Not actually interested in a Leaf. I was just giving an example of how much more expensive an EV car is.
Btw, what is the expected life of the battery in an EV car? And, how much to replace it? You need to figure that in the operating costs.
Well the Tesla Model S has had good to great battery life expectancy. The 3 is built with newer tech that should last even longer.
I believe the Leaf has had trouble with their batteries. Tesla has the best battery technology. I believe they have guarantees for 8 years, 100K miles but are likely to last much longer.
https://electrek.co/2016/11/01/tesla-battery-degradation/
Problem with that is most people want to charge their car at night when the sun isn’t shining. In order to charge with solar at night, you’d need a HUGE battery to store the power you generate in daytime.
This car is not for everyone but to dog it without seeing it is not very smart. I purchased a Honda truck last year and it cost just shy of $40K. So the cost of the 3is not crazy if one is looking for that kind of performance car.
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electric cars will be so much cheaper to run that gasoline cars.
Problem with that is most people want to charge their car at night when the sun isn’t shining. In order to charge with solar at night, you’d need a HUGE battery to store the power you generate in daytime.
Not really, most solar tech feeds the grid and reimburses you.
Problem with that is most people want to charge their car at night when the sun isn’t shining. In order to charge with solar at night, you’d need a HUGE battery to store the power you generate in daytime.
Not really, most solar tech feeds the grid and reimburses you.
Sure. But there are issues there too:
1) In most cases there are limits to how high a backfeed current the power company can handle. No matter how much juice you can produce, you may not be able to transfer it all.
2) The grid was not really designed to work in reverse. When it’s just a handful of people, it’s not a problem. As more people do it, it’s becoming a issue. A lot of infrastructure will need to go in to handle it.
3) Who pays for that? And the grid in general? People with panels have little or no electric bill. But they still make use of the grid, both as consumer and producer. That has costs that theyre not contributing to. Increasingly, power companies are slapping fees on consumers who want to do this, which negates some of the cost advantage.
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And the manager was badmouthing their all electric car all over the place. He said the stated range is only 100 miles, but if you turn on the radio it drops to 85. And it takes 21 hours to recharge. He says it's a glorified golf cart.
I’m shocked that a car dealer would have bad things to say about cars he doesn’t sell.
No, he was. He was talking about Ford's electric car.
It didn't kill Ford and it shouldn't kill Musk.
In football and in car making: innovation = risk
It didn't kill Ford and it shouldn't kill Musk.
In football and in car making: innovation = risk
One big difference: Ford was producing over 1 million OTHER cars to offset the loss incurred by Edsel. Tesla has a tenth that. It can’t afford to miss on this car.
SpaceX is a separate company, so no.
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electric cars will be so much cheaper to run that gasoline cars.
Problem with that is most people want to charge their car at night when the sun isn’t shining. In order to charge with solar at night, you’d need a HUGE battery to store the power you generate in daytime.
Isnt Tesla making those as well? The power wall.
Isnt Tesla making those as well? The power wall.
Yes. They cost $5500 apiece plus additional hardware and installation. To fully charge a Model 3 with the smallest battery option you’d need 4 Powerwalls. So that’s $22,000 plus whatever the rest costs. Probably around $30K all in. You’d need 6 for the 3’s larger capacity battery. Plus more to keep the rest of your home powered.
Sure, you can. I don’t think you can charge your car directly from it though. It would be connected to your house’s wiring and you’d charge from the wall outlet you had installed for the car.
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I mean, I'm not a pauper but I don't. My little commuter was $11K, my wife's crossover was $19K.
To answer my own question.....17.1 mill new, 42.7 used. Used cars have an average sale price of $19,400 in 2017.
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New-car prices have risen in step with the economy since the Great Recession and the average price is now beyond the means of most median-income Americans, says Bankrate.com, which based its calculations on the 20/4/10 rule of a 20 percent down payment, four-year loan and payments of principal, interest and insurance making 10 percent of a household’s income.
This is very much based on personal preference and subjective. I'm an engineer, and I look at a car like any other machine I own. I'll drive a car until I've run it into the ground, and I can usually afford much better cars than I actually drive (because IMO, leaving an expensive car on the street in NYC is about as wise as leaving a big pile of money there instead).
I know people who literally make half the money I do, and they drive around in luxury cars they can't afford. I don't want to judge them, and to each their own, but it seems awfully stupid from a financial perspective to me.
Not to mention that immediately after you buy it, it loses value.
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Or do you need 4 to charge st all?
Sure, you can. I don’t think you can charge your car directly from it though. It would be connected to your house’s wiring and you’d charge from the wall outlet you had installed for the car.
It would be more inconvenient if you had to plug directly to the battery, limiting where you could place it.
How many of these batteries could a residential solar system fill up anyway? I thing that would be the limiting factor.
I think fed was $7500 and my state was 2500, so 10,000 off the top?
The internal combustion engine is still king.
The internal combustion engine is still king.
Your points on the losses of power is transmission and charging are valid. But you leave out a number on the other side of the ledger:
1) Power plants convert fuel to energy far more efficiently than internal combustion engines.
2) A lot more energy is consumed distrributing fuel to the more than 150K gas stations in the US than the less than 10K power plants. Some of which do not need fuel (wind, solar, hydro)
3) Gasoline used by cars has to be refined at great energy cost, and a great deal of it has to be transported from overseas. Most power plants are fueled by natural gas or coal, which require little or no refining and are sourced in the US.
4) Electric cars are able to recover power via regenerative braking. They also do not use fuel while idling and operate the many car components (power steering, AC, etc) more efficiently.
It’s a much more complex analysis than you make it out to be.
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