- Stearns to open things up at 3PM addressing the media
- Mets can play players (Mauricio/Peterson) on the 60 day on Wednesday
-Austin Adams cleared waivers and has been invited to ST as a NRI
Looking forward to one of the first signs of spring...pitchers and catchers.
Everyone is 0-0 to start the year, though really just put the Mets down for 1-0, as the always win on opening day. It's the other 161 we have to worry about!
Let's see what happens over the next 6 and a half weeks or so. I hope they sign another arm for the bullpen at the least. Ryne Stanek would be e big help as a bridge to Sugar in the 9th.
Jon Matlack did a live interview over Zoom for SABR’s Oral History Committee earlier this week, and the entertaining exchange included his memories of a hit he surrendered on September 30, 1972. It was the last of Roberto Clemente’s career, and one whose circumstances caught the then-22-year-old southpaw by surprise.
“I was a wet-behind-the-ears rookie that did not know that the famous Clemente needed one more for 3,000,” admitted Matlack, who was with the New York Mets. “I was having a tough day. I walked too many guys. I’m getting beat [and] was just trying to get another out… I tried a backdoor curveball, and when it [leaves] my hand I know it’s not going to be a strike; I’m mad at myself because of how it came out. Somehow he rifles it one hop off the left-centerfield wall for a double. They present him with the ball at second base and I’m going, ‘Wait a minute, we’ve got a ballgame here to play. Why are you giving him the ball?’ Then I see the 3,000 flashing on the scoreboard. It dawned on me that I was going to be in the history books.”
@mets
system so far has been ranked 11th by ESPN/@kileymcd
15th by @keithlaw
and 8th by @BaseballAmerica
im a fan of the methodology kiley uses (the guy who developed it at FG actually now works for MLBPA) and here's how the systems in the division stack up:
1. Mets - 235m worth of prospects (11th overall)
2. Washington - 203m worth of prospects (16th overall)
3. Philly - 158m worth of prospects (23rd overall)
4. Atlanta - 87m worth of prospects (28th overall)
5. Miami - 82m worth of prospects (29th overall)
pretty amazing bc the mets also graduated like 100m worth of prospects last year just between alvarez (6th overall last year, 60grade) + baty (20th overall last year, 55 grade).
getting player development back on track is probably the most important storyline of the season. literally like 300-400m of present day value riding on it (that if developed will be worth multiples higher in the future).
if 2 more of baty/vientos/acuna/gilbert join alvarez trending toward locking down spots by the end of this year, that is such a huge development. hopefully get at least 1 arm in rotation too.
think you're giving player development WAY too much credit here. Where would the system rank if not for deadline deals for Gilbert/Clifford/Rodriguez/Vargas/Hernandez? Easily bottom 10 in the league.
I'm assuming this is a reset for tax purposes until the kids come up/come back next year, including Mauricio, the SPs at Syracuse, Acuna, and Gilbert (not including Clifford or Jett yet since 2026 looks more likely as an ETA date for them than 2025 does).
#3 Gilbert-trade
#4 Acuna-trade
#5 Clifford-trade
#8 Houck (HS player, only had a dozen ab's)
#11 Sproat (didn't pitch yet)
#15 McLean
#18 Rodriguez-trade
#19 Vargas-trade
#21 Morris (3.1 innings)
#23 Baro (HS player, dozen or so ab's)
#25 Hernandez-trade
Were all either via trade or just drafted and didn't play at all or barely played so the Mets system is absolutely in better shape than it's been but hardly from "improved player development" to this point. The system was quietly in pretty shit shape before the deadline.
I'm assuming this is a reset for tax purposes until the kids come up/come back next year, including Mauricio, the SPs at Syracuse, Acuna, and Gilbert (not including Clifford or Jett yet since 2026 looks more likely as an ETA date for them than 2025 does).
Stearns said they are "never done" looking for pitching. They are more likely done with major league deals than not. I wouldn't expect a major signing of any kind.
at conceivably lower price points (5m or less) here's who i'd have
Longoria
Urshela
kike hernandez (sorry not sorry, played 98 innings at 3b for lad last year)
Pham (seems unlikely but still)
Winker (also seems unlikely but probably be a camp invite)
Pollock (also prob a camp invite)
Lauer
Loup
barnes
hendriks and woodruff too depending on price (they would each be more than $5m).
think you're giving player development WAY too much credit here. Where would the system rank if not for deadline deals for Gilbert/Clifford/Rodriguez/Vargas/Hernandez? Easily bottom 10 in the league.
?? where did i give player development any credit?
I literally wrote an entire post last deadline about the $ value gained (same methodology used by Kiley) because of the trades they made.
think you're giving player development WAY too much credit here. Where would the system rank if not for deadline deals for Gilbert/Clifford/Rodriguez/Vargas/Hernandez? Easily bottom 10 in the league.
?? where did i give player development any credit?
I literally wrote an entire post last deadline about the $ value gained (same methodology used by Kiley) because of the trades they made.
i specifically said "they need to get player development back on track" so they don't squander the value they have in the system any more than they may already have. https://thecontractdispute.substack.com/p/trade-deadline-2023-that-escalated - ( New Window )
Eric,
My apologies. I misread what you were trying to say here. It was quietly ignored that the Mets system was in pretty dire straits. Yeah, they did graduate Alvarez/Baty but the non-2023 draft picks/trade additions top prospects was pretty mediocre
Williams
Mauricio
Scott
Tidwell
Parada
Hamel
A. Ramirez
Reimer
Baez
Butto
last year at the deadline - which i calculated as somewhere between 80m-150m (so basically half of their system).
i used the prospect grades at the time from a combination of pubs but the methodology is the same as kiley's (except for the fact that he uses his own grades vs. a blended average).
I'm assuming this is a reset for tax purposes until the kids come up/come back next year, including Mauricio, the SPs at Syracuse, Acuna, and Gilbert (not including Clifford or Jett yet since 2026 looks more likely as an ETA date for them than 2025 does).
Stearns said they are "never done" looking for pitching. They are more likely done with major league deals than not. I wouldn't expect a major signing of any kind.
Wet day dream:
They sign Stanek for the pen, Monty for this rotation, and Martinez for DH. Fiction can be fun, I know.
league pitchers who either missed all or most of 2023 due to injury or will miss time in 2024
Dylan Ross (TJ 2022, hasn't been heard from since, very odd)
Robert Dominguez (same. Formerly a top 10-15 prospect in the system)
Matt Allan
Joel Diaz
Raimon Gomez
John Valle
Chris Santiago
Connor Brandon
Zebullon Vermillion
Javier Atencio
Troy Miller
Wilmer Lugo
Daviel Hurtado (hasn't been seen in DSL camp, was supposed to be their "best" P signed last signing period out of Cuba)
Dylan Tebrake
Jace Beck
Eli Ankeney
and actually updating those amounts based on kiley's new top 100
Marceaux, Jarvis are likely closer to organizational filler than legitimate prospects but you need that depth too and you never know when a player like this might help. They spun Crow into 2 legitimate big leaguers (Taylor/Houser) which was a no-brainer move. System is 100% looking up right now. Player development has to take a step forward, hopefully Andy Green will end up being a strong hire.
"Big Game Offer, last chance! Purchase a single game ticket and receive a digital gift card in the amount of $34 to be used on food at merch at the game." Link - ( New Window )
is green noted for anything specific in player development?
if vargas and jrod are 45 grade that's another 12m or so combined.
so the midpoint of the range i came up with ended up pretty close to accurate.
how much did those three actually cost in cash in the trades?
I would do those trades over 100 times out of 100, but if the prospects pan out it would make it even better (captain obvious?) just curious if you knew how much salary the Mets had to retain to get back $102M of prospect value.
Not exactly dominant numbers but once Junior Santos moved to the bullpen he was pretty solid. 22.2 innings 22 hits 10 walks 18 k's 3.97 era. He's still only 22 years old. I would not count him out as a potential big leaguer for the Mets
hopefully Andy Green will end up being a strong hire.
i remember when they brought him the reception was generally positive and the resume is good?
this is a link to an interview he did at WM - didnt realize he'd also been a candidate for the manager job. Sr. VP of Player Development Andy Green talks David Stearns and learning the Mets' system | SNY - ( New Window )
He is not. On paper Green was a sort of odd hire. Well regarded baseball guy, considered very smart but as for his player development background... pretty vague.
RE: RE: and actually updating those amounts based on kiley's new top 100
if vargas and jrod are 45 grade that's another 12m or so combined.
so the midpoint of the range i came up with ended up pretty close to accurate.
how much did those three actually cost in cash in the trades?
I would do those trades over 100 times out of 100, but if the prospects pan out it would make it even better (captain obvious?) just curious if you knew how much salary the Mets had to retain to get back $102M of prospect value.
sort of in the chart above - the first column is how much the mets paid them (which includes the $ included in the trades).
then you need to remember those guys also produced value as mets, 1 fwar generally = 8-10m, so i included how much on-field value they produced as well.
so if you take the total amount they paid all those guys (around 218m)
subtract the value of the 15 fwar they got (*8m = 120m)
then there is about 100m worth of $ value they essentially converted into prospect value.
since most of it was in JV/MS a simpler way may be to add the ~40m they kicked in last year to the ~55m they are kicking in this year and there's your 102m worth of acuna/gilbert/clifford.
the more skillfull trades were j-rod and vargas because the $ was negligible and they got back legitimate prospects who could hit top 100 lists in the next year or 2 for pure rentals.
would not give any DH more than 1 year personally. No, I'm not talking about some odd situation like Ohtani or even if a guy like Schwarber became available but my general policy would be 1 year deals for DH's.
would not give any DH more than 1 year personally. No, I'm not talking about some odd situation like Ohtani or even if a guy like Schwarber became available but my general policy would be 1 year deals for DH's.
agree. especially mid-late 30's, injury issues, etc.
mean if I made every "DH only" or "basically can only DH" type bat available, how many of them would you want to commit 1 year to? Even a guy like Yordan Alvarez is a push fielder (-1 DRS). Can't be more than a handful and even then, how many will hit FA in their primes? DH isn't a spot to go years on, high AAV? Sure.
think you're giving player development WAY too much credit here. Where would the system rank if not for deadline deals for Gilbert/Clifford/Rodriguez/Vargas/Hernandez? Easily bottom 10 in the league.
If things were different, things would be different. They did make those deals. They get credit for making them. Now we have to see how they develop those prospects. Hoping they're better at coaching guys up than they have been.
The Mets system wasn't just very weak; it was starved for resources. Cohen & co. are addressing that but it's not going to be a quick fix. They have a lot of work to do, and not all of it will be apparent to fans soon, if ever. Fans don't necessarily see the infrastructure. They see the results.
The "Cohen tax" has also hurt their draft position and that makes the job harder.
think you're giving player development WAY too much credit here. Where would the system rank if not for deadline deals for Gilbert/Clifford/Rodriguez/Vargas/Hernandez? Easily bottom 10 in the league.
If things were different, things would be different. They did make those deals. They get credit for making them. Now we have to see how they develop those prospects. Hoping they're better at coaching guys up than they have been.
The Mets system wasn't just very weak; it was starved for resources. Cohen & co. are addressing that but it's not going to be a quick fix. They have a lot of work to do, and not all of it will be apparent to fans soon, if ever. Fans don't necessarily see the infrastructure. They see the results.
The "Cohen tax" has also hurt their draft position and that makes the job harder.
Huh? I was responding explicitly to "player development". What do the trades have to do with player development? Nothing.
can infer that an organizational weakness has indeed been... player development given the fact they hired Jared Banner in 2018, fired him in 2021, hired Kevin Howard in 2021, fired him after 2023.
not a ton notable about gamel except that he's a big line drive hitter
over career his exit velo is league average, walks a little more than typical (10%), k's a little more than typical (24%).
he seems to generally be good at hitting the sweet spot on the bat and not chasing. ok runner bad fielder. played most of last year in AAA for tampa/sd (hence 2022 statcast data). 4-A OF depth like trayce/stewart, not as much power upside as those guys but probably safer floor too.
Everyone is 0-0 to start the year, though really just put the Mets down for 1-0, as the always win on opening day. It's the other 161 we have to worry about!
LGM
Hopefully the team is competitive. Otherwise, those aren't the only AAs we'll be needing
@mets
system so far has been ranked 11th by ESPN/@kileymcd
15th by @keithlaw
and 8th by @BaseballAmerica
Quote:
Mets have both an Austin Allen and Austin Adams in camp as NRI's.
Hopefully the team is competitive. Otherwise, those aren't the only AAs we'll be needing
I'm optimistic it won't come down to these 2 lol
Shiiiiieet!
How much do you think Stanek goes for? 4 or 5 mill?
Quote:
the luxury tax, it's pretty unlikely the Mets are the team that signs Stanek. 1 year 6 million would cost the Mets 1 year 12.6 (for example).
Shiiiiieet!
How much do you think Stanek goes for? 4 or 5 mill?
If Ottavino at 38 got 4.5, gotta figure Stanek at 32 gets at least 5-6 million. Middleton just got 6.
1 year 1 million
“I was a wet-behind-the-ears rookie that did not know that the famous Clemente needed one more for 3,000,” admitted Matlack, who was with the New York Mets. “I was having a tough day. I walked too many guys. I’m getting beat [and] was just trying to get another out… I tried a backdoor curveball, and when it [leaves] my hand I know it’s not going to be a strike; I’m mad at myself because of how it came out. Somehow he rifles it one hop off the left-centerfield wall for a double. They present him with the ball at second base and I’m going, ‘Wait a minute, we’ve got a ballgame here to play. Why are you giving him the ball?’ Then I see the 3,000 flashing on the scoreboard. It dawned on me that I was going to be in the history books.”
@mets
system so far has been ranked 11th by ESPN/@kileymcd
15th by @keithlaw
and 8th by @BaseballAmerica
im a fan of the methodology kiley uses (the guy who developed it at FG actually now works for MLBPA) and here's how the systems in the division stack up:
1. Mets - 235m worth of prospects (11th overall)
2. Washington - 203m worth of prospects (16th overall)
3. Philly - 158m worth of prospects (23rd overall)
4. Atlanta - 87m worth of prospects (28th overall)
5. Miami - 82m worth of prospects (29th overall)
pretty amazing bc the mets also graduated like 100m worth of prospects last year just between alvarez (6th overall last year, 60grade) + baty (20th overall last year, 55 grade).
getting player development back on track is probably the most important storyline of the season. literally like 300-400m of present day value riding on it (that if developed will be worth multiples higher in the future).
if 2 more of baty/vientos/acuna/gilbert join alvarez trending toward locking down spots by the end of this year, that is such a huge development. hopefully get at least 1 arm in rotation too.
Too much. Thanks Dan.
#3 Gilbert-trade
#4 Acuna-trade
#5 Clifford-trade
#8 Houck (HS player, only had a dozen ab's)
#11 Sproat (didn't pitch yet)
#15 McLean
#18 Rodriguez-trade
#19 Vargas-trade
#21 Morris (3.1 innings)
#23 Baro (HS player, dozen or so ab's)
#25 Hernandez-trade
Were all either via trade or just drafted and didn't play at all or barely played so the Mets system is absolutely in better shape than it's been but hardly from "improved player development" to this point. The system was quietly in pretty shit shape before the deadline.
Stearns said they are "never done" looking for pitching. They are more likely done with major league deals than not. I wouldn't expect a major signing of any kind.
Longoria
Urshela
kike hernandez (sorry not sorry, played 98 innings at 3b for lad last year)
Pham (seems unlikely but still)
Winker (also seems unlikely but probably be a camp invite)
Pollock (also prob a camp invite)
Lauer
Loup
barnes
hendriks and woodruff too depending on price (they would each be more than $5m).
?? where did i give player development any credit?
I literally wrote an entire post last deadline about the $ value gained (same methodology used by Kiley) because of the trades they made.
i specifically said "they need to get player development back on track" so they don't squander the value they have in the system any more than they may already have.
https://thecontractdispute.substack.com/p/trade-deadline-2023-that-escalated - ( New Window )
Quote:
think you're giving player development WAY too much credit here. Where would the system rank if not for deadline deals for Gilbert/Clifford/Rodriguez/Vargas/Hernandez? Easily bottom 10 in the league.
?? where did i give player development any credit?
I literally wrote an entire post last deadline about the $ value gained (same methodology used by Kiley) because of the trades they made.
i specifically said "they need to get player development back on track" so they don't squander the value they have in the system any more than they may already have. https://thecontractdispute.substack.com/p/trade-deadline-2023-that-escalated - ( New Window )
Eric,
My apologies. I misread what you were trying to say here. It was quietly ignored that the Mets system was in pretty dire straits. Yeah, they did graduate Alvarez/Baty but the non-2023 draft picks/trade additions top prospects was pretty mediocre
Williams
Mauricio
Scott
Tidwell
Parada
Hamel
A. Ramirez
Reimer
Baez
Butto
Would be the top 10 (using BA's 2024 list)
i used the prospect grades at the time from a combination of pubs but the methodology is the same as kiley's (except for the fact that he uses his own grades vs. a blended average).
Quote:
I'm assuming this is a reset for tax purposes until the kids come up/come back next year, including Mauricio, the SPs at Syracuse, Acuna, and Gilbert (not including Clifford or Jett yet since 2026 looks more likely as an ETA date for them than 2025 does).
Stearns said they are "never done" looking for pitching. They are more likely done with major league deals than not. I wouldn't expect a major signing of any kind.
Wet day dream:
They sign Stanek for the pen, Monty for this rotation, and Martinez for DH. Fiction can be fun, I know.
Dylan Ross (TJ 2022, hasn't been heard from since, very odd)
Robert Dominguez (same. Formerly a top 10-15 prospect in the system)
Matt Allan
Joel Diaz
Raimon Gomez
John Valle
Chris Santiago
Connor Brandon
Zebullon Vermillion
Javier Atencio
Troy Miller
Wilmer Lugo
Daviel Hurtado (hasn't been seen in DSL camp, was supposed to be their "best" P signed last signing period out of Cuba)
Dylan Tebrake
Jace Beck
Eli Ankeney
acuna = 50 grade = 28m
clifford = 50 grade = 28m
so just those 3 = $102m
if vargas and jrod are 45 grade that's another 12m or so combined.
so the midpoint of the range i came up with ended up pretty close to accurate.
"Big Game Offer, last chance! Purchase a single game ticket and receive a digital gift card in the amount of $34 to be used on food at merch at the game."
Link - ( New Window )
i remember when they brought him the reception was generally positive and the resume is good?
this is a link to an interview he did at WM - didnt realize he'd also been a candidate for the manager job.
Sr. VP of Player Development Andy Green talks David Stearns and learning the Mets' system | SNY - ( New Window )
acuna = 50 grade = 28m
clifford = 50 grade = 28m
so just those 3 = $102m
if vargas and jrod are 45 grade that's another 12m or so combined.
so the midpoint of the range i came up with ended up pretty close to accurate.
how much did those three actually cost in cash in the trades?
I would do those trades over 100 times out of 100, but if the prospects pan out it would make it even better (captain obvious?) just curious if you knew how much salary the Mets had to retain to get back $102M of prospect value.
Quote:
hopefully Andy Green will end up being a strong hire.
i remember when they brought him the reception was generally positive and the resume is good?
this is a link to an interview he did at WM - didnt realize he'd also been a candidate for the manager job. Sr. VP of Player Development Andy Green talks David Stearns and learning the Mets' system | SNY - ( New Window )
He is not. On paper Green was a sort of odd hire. Well regarded baseball guy, considered very smart but as for his player development background... pretty vague.
Quote:
gilbert = 55 grade = 46m
acuna = 50 grade = 28m
clifford = 50 grade = 28m
so just those 3 = $102m
if vargas and jrod are 45 grade that's another 12m or so combined.
so the midpoint of the range i came up with ended up pretty close to accurate.
how much did those three actually cost in cash in the trades?
I would do those trades over 100 times out of 100, but if the prospects pan out it would make it even better (captain obvious?) just curious if you knew how much salary the Mets had to retain to get back $102M of prospect value.
sort of in the chart above - the first column is how much the mets paid them (which includes the $ included in the trades).
then you need to remember those guys also produced value as mets, 1 fwar generally = 8-10m, so i included how much on-field value they produced as well.
so if you take the total amount they paid all those guys (around 218m)
subtract the value of the 15 fwar they got (*8m = 120m)
then there is about 100m worth of $ value they essentially converted into prospect value.
since most of it was in JV/MS a simpler way may be to add the ~40m they kicked in last year to the ~55m they are kicking in this year and there's your 102m worth of acuna/gilbert/clifford.
the more skillfull trades were j-rod and vargas because the $ was negligible and they got back legitimate prospects who could hit top 100 lists in the next year or 2 for pure rentals.
would not do that personally.
i really think the best bang for buck is longoria on a similar deal to last year (4m+incentives).
agree. especially mid-late 30's, injury issues, etc.
@AnthonyDiComo
The Mets have signed outfielder Ben Gamel to a minor league contract and invited him to spring training.
The Mets system wasn't just very weak; it was starved for resources. Cohen & co. are addressing that but it's not going to be a quick fix. They have a lot of work to do, and not all of it will be apparent to fans soon, if ever. Fans don't necessarily see the infrastructure. They see the results.
The "Cohen tax" has also hurt their draft position and that makes the job harder.
Quote:
think you're giving player development WAY too much credit here. Where would the system rank if not for deadline deals for Gilbert/Clifford/Rodriguez/Vargas/Hernandez? Easily bottom 10 in the league.
If things were different, things would be different. They did make those deals. They get credit for making them. Now we have to see how they develop those prospects. Hoping they're better at coaching guys up than they have been.
The Mets system wasn't just very weak; it was starved for resources. Cohen & co. are addressing that but it's not going to be a quick fix. They have a lot of work to do, and not all of it will be apparent to fans soon, if ever. Fans don't necessarily see the infrastructure. They see the results.
The "Cohen tax" has also hurt their draft position and that makes the job harder.
Huh? I was responding explicitly to "player development". What do the trades have to do with player development? Nothing.
@AnthonyDiComo
The Mets have signed outfielder Ben Gamel to a minor league contract and invited him to spring training.
gamel is whatever but much better to add extra OF this way than trading prospects for them like eppler and bvw.
he seems to generally be good at hitting the sweet spot on the bat and not chasing. ok runner bad fielder. played most of last year in AAA for tampa/sd (hence 2022 statcast data). 4-A OF depth like trayce/stewart, not as much power upside as those guys but probably safer floor too.