- Stearns to open things up at 3PM addressing the media
- Mets can play players (Mauricio/Peterson) on the 60 day on Wednesday
-Austin Adams cleared waivers and has been invited to ST as a NRI
stewart played some 1b in ST and id imagine wendle/short could play there if needed. narvaz played there once in 2017.
i think beats have said 1 position spot open too, stewart hasnt been sent down but he's been told he hasnt necessarily made the roster yet, presumably in case there's someone they like who shakes free from another team.
Well not great for when Pete needs a rest. I know he plays a lot but still.
i think based on how they've handled, they have things they specifically want vientos to work on and dont want him to have to do it in a limited role.
than to learn from the hip?
And then ask that vet their opinion on him?
And I have to say, the vet leadership for thekids in AAA is not by accident, and I love it. Is this the best blend of inury/AAA calup protection that they ever had, between vets and kids?
Told you since Dec if Stewart makes OD, something went horriblye wrong.
Pat Ragazzo
@ragazzoreport
Per club sources: David Stearns & Mets made an offer to Justin Turner during Winter Meetings. He signed 1 yr, $13 mill w/ TOR instead
Stearns/Mets waited it out & landed All-Star J.D. Martinez at a lower price, 1 yr, $12 mill
Pat Ragazzo
@ragazzoreport
Per club sources: David Stearns & Mets made an offer to Justin Turner during Winter Meetings. He signed 1 yr, $13 mill w/ TOR instead
Stearns/Mets waited it out & landed All-Star J.D. Martinez at a lower price, 1 yr, $12 mill
big W for stearns there. i was as impatient as anyone but he read the room.
Peterson is recovering from left hip surgery in November and can’t return from the 60-day injured list until May 27. Mets officials have mentioned June as a reasonable return for the lefthander, but he said he is aiming for the first day he is eligible.
Having recently advanced to bullpen sessions, Peterson is slated to start facing batters in a couple of weeks.
“It’s starting to feel closer to the end than the beginning, which is good,” he said.
Yakyu Cosmopolitan
@yakyucosmo
·
12h
MLB has terminated its relationship with international leagues including NPB to avoid pre-negotiation tampering between players and MLB teams.
MLB employees will now be prohibited from data sharing, personnel exchange, etc. with non-MLB players/teams.
Yakyu Cosmopolitan
@yakyucosmo
Teams that engaged in personnel exchange (DeNA Baystars & Arizona Dbacks, Nippon-Ham Fighters & Texas Rangers, etc.) will be required to end their partnership immediately.
This could potentially impact Japanese MLB players training in the offseason with NPB players as well.
irritates me (Vientos) because he seems to be held to a higher standard where he needs to earn his spot but someone like Short doesn't. Neither one covered themselves in glory this Spring.
the only way I can rationalize it is that Short won't see many AB's and the Mets still view Vientos as part of the future and want him to play everyday. Vientos is 24 though. He's not that young anymore and the future is fleeting so you have to figure either he forces his way into the lineup soon (sometimes this year) or he won't (at least not with the Mets).
I also think JDM kind of sealed Vientos' fate, without JDM I think Vientos was a lock or had a better shot at least.
Jim Bowden said they could be attempting to build his trade value then make him available at the deadline
I think that would be a big mistake. Unless other teams project Vientos as a 3B, he is going to have limited trade value as a DH/1B. One of those guys who would be more valuable to the team that controls him than he would net in a trade.
Yakyu Cosmopolitan
@yakyucosmo
·
12h
MLB has terminated its relationship with international leagues including NPB to avoid pre-negotiation tampering between players and MLB teams.
MLB employees will now be prohibited from data sharing, personnel exchange, etc. with non-MLB players/teams.
Yakyu Cosmopolitan
@yakyucosmo
Teams that engaged in personnel exchange (DeNA Baystars & Arizona Dbacks, Nippon-Ham Fighters & Texas Rangers, etc.) will be required to end their partnership immediately.
This could potentially impact Japanese MLB players training in the offseason with NPB players as well.
Yakyu Cosmopolitan
@yakyucosmo
·
12h
MLB has terminated its relationship with international leagues including NPB to avoid pre-negotiation tampering between players and MLB teams.
MLB employees will now be prohibited from data sharing, personnel exchange, etc. with non-MLB players/teams.
Yakyu Cosmopolitan
@yakyucosmo
Teams that engaged in personnel exchange (DeNA Baystars & Arizona Dbacks, Nippon-Ham Fighters & Texas Rangers, etc.) will be required to end their partnership immediately.
This could potentially impact Japanese MLB players training in the offseason with NPB players as well.
😮
wtf???
Won't impact the posting system (at least not directly).
Jeff Passan
@JeffPassan
Important clarification on this: New rules restrict the relationships between MLB teams and their foreign counterparts. In other words, no more partnerships like the one Arizona had with Yokohama. But agreements between MLB and foreign leagues, like the posting system, remain.
84.8% // DJ LeMahieu
76.1% // J.D. Martinez
75.8% // Trey Mancini
75.8% // Nick Castellanos
75.7% // Tommy Pham
75.1% // Bo Bichette
Of hard-hit balls hit at least 300 feet, min. 250
one of the first things i thought of was the homer vientos hit to center vs TB that got out somewhat surprisingly last year. i dont know how to sort his flyballs only or his minors stats, but over his 2 years of big league at bats he has a 65% center/oppo rate and that's where 6 of his 9 homers went out. his 1 homer in 2022 was also oppo.
hopefully he and jdm really do stay attached at the hip. 2 talented power hitters with a chance to solve DH in a meaningful way is better than 1.
to be difficult for Vientos/JDM to be attached at the hip with Vientos now in Syracuse.
isnt that where JDM is starting the year for 10-15 days too?
They will have about a week of overlap and have already worked out together previously so I don't really see how a week-10 days is going to make much of a difference
didn't even "allow" for the possibility of Vientos beating out Baty this Spring. Leads me to believe the Mets are just not particularly high on him and the numbers James Schiano posted regarding Vientos vs. premium velocity are likely a massive reason why.
James Schiano
@James_Schiano
Vientos has a problem with velocity
find it hard to believe suddenly 10 days of time in Syracuse together is going to make any tangible difference.
"The addition of Martinez squeezes out Mark Vientos, a hitter Martinez has known for years with both of them having grown up around the same area and training at the same offseason facility. "
didn't even "allow" for the possibility of Vientos beating out Baty this Spring. Leads me to believe the Mets are just not particularly high on him and the numbers James Schiano posted regarding Vientos vs. premium velocity are likely a massive reason why.
James Schiano
@James_Schiano
Vientos has a problem with velocity
didn't even "allow" for the possibility of Vientos beating out Baty this Spring. Leads me to believe the Mets are just not particularly high on him and the numbers James Schiano posted regarding Vientos vs. premium velocity are likely a massive reason why.
James Schiano
@James_Schiano
Vientos has a problem with velocity
And 97 Fastballs:
.115/.172/.269
42.4 Whiff%
47.5 Chase%
25.5 Z-Contact%
Per Schiano, Vientos saw 71 FB's 95+ in AAA and did not have a single hit. Seems like that's going to be an extremely hard issue to overcome.
i dont have access to any database but pretty sure that's not entirely right. didnt athletic have numbers that he was mets best hitter of high velocity last year in big leagues?
Ahh, the joys of an expanded postseason. Knowing that 84 wins was good enough for not one but two playoff teams in the National League last season sure makes it easier for the Mets to pull off the offseason approach they just did. Following a massively disappointing 87-loss season and a trade-deadline sell-off, New York under new exec David Stearns tinkered on the edges of its roster. The team added 16 players to its 40-man roster, only one of whom (Sean Manaea) is guaranteed money in 2025.
Since Aug. 1, the Mets have made it clear the goal here in 2024 is not a division title — they're still very much looking up at Atlanta and Philadelphia — but a roll of the postseason die. Because they know as well as anyone how that's worked out for the last two No. 6 seeds in the National League.
Austin Mock's odds
🎟️ Make postseason
25.1%
🏅 Win division
3.4%
🚩 Win pennant
2.4%
🏆 Win World Series
1.0%
didn't even "allow" for the possibility of Vientos beating out Baty this Spring. Leads me to believe the Mets are just not particularly high on him and the numbers James Schiano posted regarding Vientos vs. premium velocity are likely a massive reason why.
James Schiano
@James_Schiano
Vientos has a problem with velocity
And 97 Fastballs:
.115/.172/.269
42.4 Whiff%
47.5 Chase%
25.5 Z-Contact%
Per Schiano, Vientos saw 71 FB's 95+ in AAA and did not have a single hit. Seems like that's going to be an extremely hard issue to overcome.
i dont have access to any database but pretty sure that's not entirely right. didnt athletic have numbers that he was mets best hitter of high velocity last year in big leagues?
He pulled the numbers directly from baseball savant
James Schiano
@James_Schiano
Baseball savant
Setting metric range->pitch velocity-> greater then or equal to 95 MPH Link - ( New Window )
PRO: Vientos provides something the Mets otherwise lack: power against high velocity.
The sport has undoubtedly moved in the direction of harder throwers. The percentage of pitches thrown 97 mph and above has jumped from 3.5 percent in 2017 to 5.7 percent last season. (The first year Statcast measured pitch velocity was in 2017. Pitch F/X goes back to 2008 when only 1.6 percent of pitches were 97 and up.)
Vientos is as good at hitting that velo as anyone else in the Mets lineup. Since arriving in the major leagues, Vientos has slugged .769 against pitches thrown 97 or harder. Here’s how his numbers stack up against returning Mets, bearing in mind the sample is much smaller for Vientos:
this may seem unsurprising given priors but I think the lengths the mets were willing to hold out on JDM (and JDD before that) show that they were really very willing to go with Vientos at DH unless there was a substantial upgrade at a substantial discount (which JDM @ basically 9m AAV represents).
JDM is getting paid less by the mets than he made last year as LAD coming off a much better season. There were likely fair numbers in the 1 year 12-15m range they could have arrived at weeks ago if they didnt have faith in vientos (not to mention JDD at a fraction of that). Should Mark Vientos be the Mets’ DH? Examining the pros and cons - ( New Window )
And 97 Fastballs:
.115/.172/.269
42.4 Whiff%
47.5 Chase%
25.5 Z-Contact%
Hard to fix this in AAA but almost impossible to be productive in the majors
Show more
Quote
Mets'd Up Podcast
@MetsdUp
·
Mar 24
Mark Vientos will not be on the Opening Day roster per Davis Stearns
Image
SteveG
@shield1062
·
Mar 25
So, he's chasing fastballs off the plate at 41-48% ? These stats seem to support him being a pure guess hitter that's late on his swings and doesn't cut down to make contact. Hopefully some 1-1 coaching can help him. Maybe its a vision issue??
James Schiano
@James_Schiano
Fastballs that are at least 95 MPH yes. I think the biggest thing is a swing that doesn't let him get to those fastballs but there could be a guessing element
He was the host of the official Mets sanctioned Podcast, he's not just some random dude
Thomas Nestico
@TJStats
I was deceived by Vientos' AAA results where he was keeping his Whiff% away from league worst.
His results in MLB are significantly worse and his plate discipline and contact skills are very poor.
Similar to what Nae is saying, Vientos is not the answer for the Mets in 2024.
Thomas Nestico
@TJStats
Ya, it's all part of the non-linear development path of MLB players. Vientos has the raw tools to be an effective power hitter, but at this moment he can't succeed strictly off of power like he did in the minors.
Adjustments will be made, but the effectiveness varies.
and i know from what i saw with my own eyes he hit an XBH off bautista at 101mph last year and he was i think the only batter to do so off bautista over 100 mph last year (one of GKR made a comment i think in broadcast).
was looking for a clip of the bautista hit from broadcast to find that stat and instead found a YT highlight on his 5 hardest hits last year, 4 were off pitches 96 mph+. the 110mph double off bautista at 101mph is the second clip. a 114.9mph single off cole at 96 mph was his hardest hit ball of the year. Mark Vientos Top 5 Hardest Hits of 2023 - ( New Window )
RE: well he and britton have exactly opposite numbers
and i know from what i saw with my own eyes he hit an XBH off bautista at 101mph last year and he was i think the only batter to do so off bautista over 100 mph last year (one of GKR made a comment i think in broadcast).
was looking for a clip of the bautista hit from broadcast to find that stat and instead found a YT highlight on his 5 hardest hits last year, 4 were off pitches 96 mph+. the 110mph double off bautista at 101mph is the second clip. a 114.9mph single off cole at 96 mph was his hardest hit ball of the year. Mark Vientos Top 5 Hardest Hits of 2023 - ( New Window )
Eric,
The graphs I posted above are explicitly from the data, there is no gray area.
From Vientos's INTERNAL BP data aka what's not made public
"Vientos has one of the loudest bats in the league, but his plate discipline is putrid. Not only does he make poor decisions, he also has some of the worst contact rates in the league. Not an ideal combination.Thomas Nestico
@TJStats
Vientos' results aren't related to a small sample size, though. His swing has glaring holes in it, which has led to poor results.
I really hope he pans out, but an overhaul in his swing and approach is much easier said than done."
has Clifford projected to open in Brooklyn but I don't think that's based on actual inside information. The beats were strongly suggesting Bing last week.
DMM i had a back and forth with TJ directly a few months ago
these were charts he posted, his data already projects vientos above league average in terms of slugging, and as i pointed out to him in red, at the end of the year last year when he played every day he was showing the contact improvements TJ said he needs to make (which TJ conceded in bold):
Quote:
Thomas Nestico
@TJStats
He is still 24 which gives him plenty of time to improve. My charts show a very slight improvement which may simply be noise, it's not a large sample.
I won't write him off because he has the raw power to be effective, especially at his age. He has some holes he needs to address
forgetting however any of us want to guess on projecting future improvement (an unknown) this is the most meaningful thing TJ posted - which as i said above shows that in terms of expected power Vientos has already shown to be 60th percentile. This is real data based on the real contact vientos has made and shows real upside.
The question of whether or not he will get better in terms of consistency is real, but the only way to know the answer to that is to give him regular at bats at the MLB level. At the expense of an impact player like JDM on a steal of a contract it wasn't worth it, but for pretty much anyone else it was (which is why the mets passed on everyone else all offseason).
Quote:
Thomas Nestico
@TJStats
·
Feb 7
I have Vientos in the 60th% in my xSLG/BBE metric.
Quote:
In comment 16445133 GF1080 said:
Quote:
Who's backup at 1B now with Vientos sent down?
stewart played some 1b in ST and id imagine wendle/short could play there if needed. narvaz played there once in 2017.
i think beats have said 1 position spot open too, stewart hasnt been sent down but he's been told he hasnt necessarily made the roster yet, presumably in case there's someone they like who shakes free from another team.
Well not great for when Pete needs a rest. I know he plays a lot but still.
i think based on how they've handled, they have things they specifically want vientos to work on and dont want him to have to do it in a limited role.
And then ask that vet their opinion on him?
And I have to say, the vet leadership for thekids in AAA is not by accident, and I love it. Is this the best blend of inury/AAA calup protection that they ever had, between vets and kids?
Told you since Dec if Stewart makes OD, something went horriblye wrong.
@mikemayer22
Sean Manaea this spring:
16.2 IP, 18 H, 6 ER, 4 BB, 21 K, 3.24 ERA
@ragazzoreport
Per club sources: David Stearns & Mets made an offer to Justin Turner during Winter Meetings. He signed 1 yr, $13 mill w/ TOR instead
Stearns/Mets waited it out & landed All-Star J.D. Martinez at a lower price, 1 yr, $12 mill
@ragazzoreport
Per club sources: David Stearns & Mets made an offer to Justin Turner during Winter Meetings. He signed 1 yr, $13 mill w/ TOR instead
Stearns/Mets waited it out & landed All-Star J.D. Martinez at a lower price, 1 yr, $12 mill
big W for stearns there. i was as impatient as anyone but he read the room.
@TheAthletic
YES Network had discussions with Buck Showalter about joining the Yankees’ regional network, sources told @AndrewMarchand
.
“Once we learned that he was still under contract (with the Mets), we did not pursue it any further.”
Having recently advanced to bullpen sessions, Peterson is slated to start facing batters in a couple of weeks.
“It’s starting to feel closer to the end than the beginning, which is good,” he said.
Sounds like he made their opening day roster and will be in the rotation.
Obviously Skenes is the big name for their rotation future, but Jones supposedly has a big arm too.
Sounds like he made their opening day roster and will be in the rotation.
Obviously Skenes is the big name for their rotation future, but Jones supposedly has a big arm too.
Big-time stuff. FB up to 102. Misses bats. If he throws strikes he could be a good #3 or even a #2
@yakyucosmo
·
12h
MLB has terminated its relationship with international leagues including NPB to avoid pre-negotiation tampering between players and MLB teams.
MLB employees will now be prohibited from data sharing, personnel exchange, etc. with non-MLB players/teams.
Yakyu Cosmopolitan
@yakyucosmo
Teams that engaged in personnel exchange (DeNA Baystars & Arizona Dbacks, Nippon-Ham Fighters & Texas Rangers, etc.) will be required to end their partnership immediately.
This could potentially impact Japanese MLB players training in the offseason with NPB players as well.
Quote:
irritates me (Vientos) because he seems to be held to a higher standard where he needs to earn his spot but someone like Short doesn't. Neither one covered themselves in glory this Spring.
the only way I can rationalize it is that Short won't see many AB's and the Mets still view Vientos as part of the future and want him to play everyday. Vientos is 24 though. He's not that young anymore and the future is fleeting so you have to figure either he forces his way into the lineup soon (sometimes this year) or he won't (at least not with the Mets).
I also think JDM kind of sealed Vientos' fate, without JDM I think Vientos was a lock or had a better shot at least.
Jim Bowden said they could be attempting to build his trade value then make him available at the deadline
I think that would be a big mistake. Unless other teams project Vientos as a 3B, he is going to have limited trade value as a DH/1B. One of those guys who would be more valuable to the team that controls him than he would net in a trade.
@yakyucosmo
·
12h
MLB has terminated its relationship with international leagues including NPB to avoid pre-negotiation tampering between players and MLB teams.
MLB employees will now be prohibited from data sharing, personnel exchange, etc. with non-MLB players/teams.
Yakyu Cosmopolitan
@yakyucosmo
Teams that engaged in personnel exchange (DeNA Baystars & Arizona Dbacks, Nippon-Ham Fighters & Texas Rangers, etc.) will be required to end their partnership immediately.
This could potentially impact Japanese MLB players training in the offseason with NPB players as well.
😮
wtf???
Quote:
Yakyu Cosmopolitan
@yakyucosmo
·
12h
MLB has terminated its relationship with international leagues including NPB to avoid pre-negotiation tampering between players and MLB teams.
MLB employees will now be prohibited from data sharing, personnel exchange, etc. with non-MLB players/teams.
Yakyu Cosmopolitan
@yakyucosmo
Teams that engaged in personnel exchange (DeNA Baystars & Arizona Dbacks, Nippon-Ham Fighters & Texas Rangers, etc.) will be required to end their partnership immediately.
This could potentially impact Japanese MLB players training in the offseason with NPB players as well.
😮
wtf???
Won't impact the posting system (at least not directly).
@fangraphs
ranked @mets
bullpen #12
@JeffPassan
Important clarification on this: New rules restrict the relationships between MLB teams and their foreign counterparts. In other words, no more partnerships like the one Arizona had with Yokohama. But agreements between MLB and foreign leagues, like the posting system, remain.
Let's get those 100 SBs. Cards had no choice after the Carlson injury.
@NYPost_Mets
Mets have released Phil Bickford.
RHP prospect Sammy Tavarez has signed with @LECrushers
of @FLProBaseball
. Ex-@Mets
RHP Richard Brito has signed with @KnockoutsBase
@NYPost_Mets
Mets have released Phil Bickford.
😮
@NYPost_Mets
Mets have released Phil Bickford.
Au revoir to one of our tank commanders-in-chief last season!
Link - ( New Window )
this is a really good article. i love stats like this and wish i knew where to find a better database to split them:
84.8% // DJ LeMahieu
76.1% // J.D. Martinez
75.8% // Trey Mancini
75.8% // Nick Castellanos
75.7% // Tommy Pham
75.1% // Bo Bichette
Of hard-hit balls hit at least 300 feet, min. 250
one of the first things i thought of was the homer vientos hit to center vs TB that got out somewhat surprisingly last year. i dont know how to sort his flyballs only or his minors stats, but over his 2 years of big league at bats he has a 65% center/oppo rate and that's where 6 of his 9 homers went out. his 1 homer in 2022 was also oppo.
hopefully he and jdm really do stay attached at the hip. 2 talented power hitters with a chance to solve DH in a meaningful way is better than 1.
@WillSammon
Kodai Senga is playing light catch at Citi Field.
isnt that where JDM is starting the year for 10-15 days too?
Quote:
to be difficult for Vientos/JDM to be attached at the hip with Vientos now in Syracuse.
isnt that where JDM is starting the year for 10-15 days too?
They will have about a week of overlap and have already worked out together previously so I don't really see how a week-10 days is going to make much of a difference
James Schiano
@James_Schiano
Vientos has a problem with velocity
Faced 131 pitches 95 MPH+ 2023:
.184/.273/.447
36.1 Whiff%
41.5 Chase%
30.3 Z-Contact%
And 97 Fastballs:
.115/.172/.269
42.4 Whiff%
47.5 Chase%
25.5 Z-Contact%
"The addition of Martinez squeezes out Mark Vientos, a hitter Martinez has known for years with both of them having grown up around the same area and training at the same offseason facility. "
James Schiano
@James_Schiano
Vientos has a problem with velocity
Faced 131 pitches 95 MPH+ 2023:
.184/.273/.447
36.1 Whiff%
41.5 Chase%
30.3 Z-Contact%
And 97 Fastballs:
.115/.172/.269
42.4 Whiff%
47.5 Chase%
25.5 Z-Contact%
Per Schiano, Vientos saw 71 FB's 95+ in AAA and did not have a single hit. Seems like that's going to be an extremely hard issue to overcome.
Quote:
didn't even "allow" for the possibility of Vientos beating out Baty this Spring. Leads me to believe the Mets are just not particularly high on him and the numbers James Schiano posted regarding Vientos vs. premium velocity are likely a massive reason why.
James Schiano
@James_Schiano
Vientos has a problem with velocity
Faced 131 pitches 95 MPH+ 2023:
.184/.273/.447
36.1 Whiff%
41.5 Chase%
30.3 Z-Contact%
And 97 Fastballs:
.115/.172/.269
42.4 Whiff%
47.5 Chase%
25.5 Z-Contact%
Per Schiano, Vientos saw 71 FB's 95+ in AAA and did not have a single hit. Seems like that's going to be an extremely hard issue to overcome.
i dont have access to any database but pretty sure that's not entirely right. didnt athletic have numbers that he was mets best hitter of high velocity last year in big leagues?
Analysis
Ahh, the joys of an expanded postseason. Knowing that 84 wins was good enough for not one but two playoff teams in the National League last season sure makes it easier for the Mets to pull off the offseason approach they just did. Following a massively disappointing 87-loss season and a trade-deadline sell-off, New York under new exec David Stearns tinkered on the edges of its roster. The team added 16 players to its 40-man roster, only one of whom (Sean Manaea) is guaranteed money in 2025.
Since Aug. 1, the Mets have made it clear the goal here in 2024 is not a division title — they're still very much looking up at Atlanta and Philadelphia — but a roll of the postseason die. Because they know as well as anyone how that's worked out for the last two No. 6 seeds in the National League.
Austin Mock's odds
🎟️ Make postseason
25.1%
🏅 Win division
3.4%
🚩 Win pennant
2.4%
🏆 Win World Series
1.0%
Quote:
In comment 16447505 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
didn't even "allow" for the possibility of Vientos beating out Baty this Spring. Leads me to believe the Mets are just not particularly high on him and the numbers James Schiano posted regarding Vientos vs. premium velocity are likely a massive reason why.
James Schiano
@James_Schiano
Vientos has a problem with velocity
Faced 131 pitches 95 MPH+ 2023:
.184/.273/.447
36.1 Whiff%
41.5 Chase%
30.3 Z-Contact%
And 97 Fastballs:
.115/.172/.269
42.4 Whiff%
47.5 Chase%
25.5 Z-Contact%
Per Schiano, Vientos saw 71 FB's 95+ in AAA and did not have a single hit. Seems like that's going to be an extremely hard issue to overcome.
i dont have access to any database but pretty sure that's not entirely right. didnt athletic have numbers that he was mets best hitter of high velocity last year in big leagues?
He pulled the numbers directly from baseball savant
James Schiano
@James_Schiano
Baseball savant
Setting metric range->pitch velocity-> greater then or equal to 95 MPH
Link - ( New Window )
The sport has undoubtedly moved in the direction of harder throwers. The percentage of pitches thrown 97 mph and above has jumped from 3.5 percent in 2017 to 5.7 percent last season. (The first year Statcast measured pitch velocity was in 2017. Pitch F/X goes back to 2008 when only 1.6 percent of pitches were 97 and up.)
Vientos is as good at hitting that velo as anyone else in the Mets lineup. Since arriving in the major leagues, Vientos has slugged .769 against pitches thrown 97 or harder. Here’s how his numbers stack up against returning Mets, bearing in mind the sample is much smaller for Vientos:
this may seem unsurprising given priors but I think the lengths the mets were willing to hold out on JDM (and JDD before that) show that they were really very willing to go with Vientos at DH unless there was a substantial upgrade at a substantial discount (which JDM @ basically 9m AAV represents).
JDM is getting paid less by the mets than he made last year as LAD coming off a much better season. There were likely fair numbers in the 1 year 12-15m range they could have arrived at weeks ago if they didnt have faith in vientos (not to mention JDD at a fraction of that).
Should Mark Vientos be the Mets’ DH? Examining the pros and cons - ( New Window )
Conversation
James Schiano
@James_Schiano
·
Mar 24
Vientos has a problem with velocity
Faced 131 pitches 95 MPH+ 2023:
.184/.273/.447
36.1 Whiff%
41.5 Chase%
30.3 Z-Contact%
And 97 Fastballs:
.115/.172/.269
42.4 Whiff%
47.5 Chase%
25.5 Z-Contact%
Hard to fix this in AAA but almost impossible to be productive in the majors
Show more
Quote
Mets'd Up Podcast
@MetsdUp
·
Mar 24
Mark Vientos will not be on the Opening Day roster per Davis Stearns
Image
SteveG
@shield1062
·
Mar 25
So, he's chasing fastballs off the plate at 41-48% ? These stats seem to support him being a pure guess hitter that's late on his swings and doesn't cut down to make contact. Hopefully some 1-1 coaching can help him. Maybe its a vision issue??
James Schiano
@James_Schiano
Fastballs that are at least 95 MPH yes. I think the biggest thing is a swing that doesn't let him get to those fastballs but there could be a guessing element
He was the host of the official Mets sanctioned Podcast, he's not just some random dude
Thomas Nestico
@TJStats
I was deceived by Vientos' AAA results where he was keeping his Whiff% away from league worst.
His results in MLB are significantly worse and his plate discipline and contact skills are very poor.
Similar to what Nae is saying, Vientos is not the answer for the Mets in 2024.
Thomas Nestico
@TJStats
Ya, it's all part of the non-linear development path of MLB players. Vientos has the raw tools to be an effective power hitter, but at this moment he can't succeed strictly off of power like he did in the minors.
Adjustments will be made, but the effectiveness varies.
was looking for a clip of the bautista hit from broadcast to find that stat and instead found a YT highlight on his 5 hardest hits last year, 4 were off pitches 96 mph+. the 110mph double off bautista at 101mph is the second clip. a 114.9mph single off cole at 96 mph was his hardest hit ball of the year.
Mark Vientos Top 5 Hardest Hits of 2023 - ( New Window )
was looking for a clip of the bautista hit from broadcast to find that stat and instead found a YT highlight on his 5 hardest hits last year, 4 were off pitches 96 mph+. the 110mph double off bautista at 101mph is the second clip. a 114.9mph single off cole at 96 mph was his hardest hit ball of the year. Mark Vientos Top 5 Hardest Hits of 2023 - ( New Window )
Eric,
The graphs I posted above are explicitly from the data, there is no gray area.
More from Nestico
"Vientos has one of the loudest bats in the league, but his plate discipline is putrid. Not only does he make poor decisions, he also has some of the worst contact rates in the league. Not an ideal combination.Thomas Nestico
@TJStats
Vientos' results aren't related to a small sample size, though. His swing has glaring holes in it, which has led to poor results.
I really hope he pans out, but an overhaul in his swing and approach is much easier said than done."
https://twitter.com/TJStats
Link - ( New Window )
@TJStats
He is still 24 which gives him plenty of time to improve. My charts show a very slight improvement which may simply be noise, it's not a large sample.
I won't write him off because he has the raw power to be effective, especially at his age. He has some holes he needs to address
forgetting however any of us want to guess on projecting future improvement (an unknown) this is the most meaningful thing TJ posted - which as i said above shows that in terms of expected power Vientos has already shown to be 60th percentile. This is real data based on the real contact vientos has made and shows real upside.
The question of whether or not he will get better in terms of consistency is real, but the only way to know the answer to that is to give him regular at bats at the MLB level. At the expense of an impact player like JDM on a steal of a contract it wasn't worth it, but for pretty much anyone else it was (which is why the mets passed on everyone else all offseason).
@TJStats
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Feb 7
I have Vientos in the 60th% in my xSLG/BBE metric.