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NFT: Mets Spring Training Thread

DanMetroMan : 2/12/2024 10:42 am
- Stearns to open things up at 3PM addressing the media
- Mets can play players (Mauricio/Peterson) on the 60 day on Wednesday
-Austin Adams cleared waivers and has been invited to ST as a NRI
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RE: Eric so you are saying that this is a 77 win team?  
Shecky : 2/12/2024 11:50 pm : link
In comment 16397458 ZGiants98 said:
Quote:
If so, I agree. That's about what it looks like. But again, that's mostly because there's so much variable, especially in the rotation. If we hit on Severino, Manaea, and Houser of course we could surprise. I just hate stacking too many "best case scenarios" in a row. It's usually a recipe for disaster.


I think the lineup is a bat short too (JDM would have been perfect) but it's not bad as is.


Welcome home Z, great to see you ch8ming in. Hope you’ve been well, and look forward to seeing you around here again.
link to stearns from today  
Eric on Li : 2/13/2024 12:26 am : link
finally got around to it, not to put too fine a point on it but intelligence wise he seems on another planet from eppler/scott/porter.

a few notable things (not exact quotes but close enough):

"when you have players who have pretty consistently performed at AAA eventually you have to give them a chance. i fully understand that it may not go perfectly but the organization will be better for it" (amen)

do u have a set budget?

"i dont think steve operates with a hard line"

would you consider signing a veteran if the prices come down?

"sure that's not out of the question"

called out zack short's defense at 3b "played at a very high level in the past" (mention this bc im still surprised he's stuck on the 40 man all offseason)

1 other one where i dont remember the exact context but quote stuck with me - "at some point several months from now i will be much better educated on this roster and in a better position to plot the course forward"
David Stearns on expectations going into 2024 season at Mets spring training | SNY - ( New Window )
As much as Z’s unbridled optimism could be  
bhill410 : 2/13/2024 6:30 am : link
At times be over the top (for me really only when defending wilpons who I loathed), I am not ready for a world where Z is a pessimist. Z we need you to go to spring training, watch Baty and Vientos have big games and come back here and believe that we are about to see the beginning of our own murderers row. We need someone to argue that marte turns back the clock and severino is a cy young candidate. It’s February hope springs eternal.
Soler  
GF1080 : 2/13/2024 7:53 am : link
To the Giants. 3 years $42 million.
Zack  
DanMetroMan : 2/13/2024 8:01 am : link
Short career negative 1.3 fWAR which includes -3 DRS and -2 OAA at 3B. He’s soon to be 29 years old with a career 58 wRC+ over 179 games. If he sees significant time at 3B for the Mets they are in major, major trouble. This sounds like an artificial attempt to give Baty some “competition”.
Baggerly  
DanMetroMan : 2/13/2024 8:07 am : link
Think the Giants now shop JDD or Conforto lol
Who hits behind Alonso?  
dannysection 313 : 2/13/2024 9:13 am : link
Assuming some combo of Nimmo, Lindor, McNeil, Marte (if healthy) are 1-3 and Alonso is 4, who hits 5?

Pete may not see many fastballs.

He puts a lot of pressure on himself, with no protection behind him, well....not good, but if he wants the big $, maybe he just needs to figure it out...
RE: Who hits behind Alonso?  
Shecky : 2/13/2024 9:30 am : link
In comment 16397622 dannysection 313 said:
Quote:
Assuming some combo of Nimmo, Lindor, McNeil, Marte (if healthy) are 1-3 and Alonso is 4, who hits 5?

Pete may not see many fastballs.

He puts a lot of pressure on himself, with no protection behind him, well....not good, but if he wants the big $, maybe he just needs to figure it out...


Alvarez will get some MVP votes, and next year we will ask who hits behind him?
RE: Soler  
Eric on Li : 2/13/2024 10:05 am : link
In comment 16397514 GF1080 said:
Quote:
To the Giants. 3 years $42 million.


it is so bizarre to see these guys sit all winter then end up getting basically what was projected all along (in soler's case actually a little more- his median was 3x38m).
RE: Zack  
Eric on Li : 2/13/2024 10:10 am : link
In comment 16397516 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
Short career negative 1.3 fWAR which includes -3 DRS and -2 OAA at 3B. He’s soon to be 29 years old with a career 58 wRC+ over 179 games. If he sees significant time at 3B for the Mets they are in major, major trouble. This sounds like an artificial attempt to give Baty some “competition”.


he noted that there basically is no competition for 3b ("we believe in brett" or something like that), think he was talking about short in the context of final bench spot up for grabs.

short is just an odd one in that i think some of their other claims seemed more interesting than him. he hasnt even hit at AAA when he's been there the last several years. Castillo seemed like a more interesting claim. Hummel too.
RE: Who hits behind Alonso?  
Eric on Li : 2/13/2024 10:17 am : link
In comment 16397622 dannysection 313 said:
Quote:
Assuming some combo of Nimmo, Lindor, McNeil, Marte (if healthy) are 1-3 and Alonso is 4, who hits 5?

Pete may not see many fastballs.

He puts a lot of pressure on himself, with no protection behind him, well....not good, but if he wants the big $, maybe he just needs to figure it out...


if i were them id actually consider hitting alonso higher this year. his best year as a rookie he mostly hit 2nd. not sure id have the courage to do that, but maybe hit him 3rd with lindor 2nd.

though i also dont hate 1 nimmo - 2 lindor - 3 mcneil because that should get lindor some extra righty at bats or nimmo/mcneil extra righty at bats. then alonso 4.

vogelbach hit 5th for like 100 games in the last 1.5 years, somehow i imagine they will be able to do better than that with someone whether it's marte, alvarez, vientos, baty or mcneil if he's not hitting top 3.
Players  
DanMetroMan : 2/13/2024 10:34 am : link
around the league are complaining how shitty the new uniforms are (made by Fanatics this year).
RE: RE: Zack  
DanMetroMan : 2/13/2024 10:35 am : link
In comment 16397712 Eric on Li said:
Quote:
In comment 16397516 DanMetroMan said:


Quote:


Short career negative 1.3 fWAR which includes -3 DRS and -2 OAA at 3B. He’s soon to be 29 years old with a career 58 wRC+ over 179 games. If he sees significant time at 3B for the Mets they are in major, major trouble. This sounds like an artificial attempt to give Baty some “competition”.



he noted that there basically is no competition for 3b ("we believe in brett" or something like that), think he was talking about short in the context of final bench spot up for grabs.

short is just an odd one in that i think some of their other claims seemed more interesting than him. he hasnt even hit at AAA when he's been there the last several years. Castillo seemed like a more interesting claim. Hummel too.


I don't see how they can carry Wendle AND Short (with Narvaez being on the bench as well) unless they want the worst bench in baseball offensively.
really good article by britt ghiroli on early impact of young players  
Eric on Li : 2/13/2024 10:38 am : link
Quote:
Young players are reshaping the game. Last year, rookie hitters amassed a 68.6 WAR, the second-most ever, according to FanGraphs (behind 2015’s 75.1). Along with rookie pitchers’ 46.3 WAR, the combined impact on the sport is 114.9 WAR, which also trails only 2015 (a class led by Kris Bryant and Carlos Correa) as the best of all time. There has been no recent change in the average age of hitters (27.8), and only a six-month dip for pitchers (from 28.5 to 28 years old), but first-year players are increasingly making their presence felt.


note here on this chart 2022 where the mets chose vogelbach/naquin/ruf over their young hitters in AAA? that's literally what it looks like to be behind the curve (and why Stearns' approach is something that was needed).



some quotes from 2 of our almost-gm's:

Quote:
Current Pirates general manager Ben Cherington was the Boston Red Sox farm director from 2002-05 . Back then, “we weren’t thinking about skill development in the major leagues,” Cherington said. “Now there’s so much more awareness of what’s possible for a player to keep getting better — of course you have to continue (developing up here). If the industry decided we are going to do all that in the minor leagues, players would be in the minor leagues a lot longer.”

When the Pirates were weighing whether infielder Ke’Bryan Hayes would make their Opening Day roster, Cherington said part of the discussion around Hayes — who debuted as a 23-year-old during 2020’s shortened season — was that he needed to be in the big leagues to accelerate his growth. Some members of the Pirates front office believed Hayes could get better quicker if he saw big-league pitching, not Triple A, every day.

“There’s significant upside to having guys who you can plug in and then they take the next step up here and get to be All-stars sooner in their career,” said Dodgers general manager Brandon Gomes. “We talk about this a lot: you can get really close in player development in Triple A, but I’m not sure you can put the ball in the end zone.”

Behind the unprecedented rise in young impact players in baseball - ( New Window )
.  
DanMetroMan : 2/13/2024 10:38 am : link
Dodgers getting a second City Connect uniform just so the league can sell more Ohtani/Yamamoto uniforms, jeez.
RE: RE: RE: Zack  
Eric on Li : 2/13/2024 10:41 am : link
In comment 16397748 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:


I don't see how they can carry Wendle AND Short (with Narvaez being on the bench as well) unless they want the worst bench in baseball offensively.


i agree. if i could add longoria (or JDM), short is the obvious dfa i think. sanchez/iglesias are both at AAA and seem like easy emergency options if they need a backup IF who cant hit.
my lineup  
KDavies : 2/13/2024 10:43 am : link
Nimmo
McNeil
Lindor
Alonso
Alvarez
Marte
Vientos
Baty
Bader

Marte could easily move down. Vientos, Baty if hot could hit 5th. Just go with the hot hand to hit behind him. As noted above, Vogelbach "protected" him last year. Can't get much worse. Heck, at times last year, Stewart was hot and was the best Alonso protection.
Decent  
DanMetroMan : 2/13/2024 10:45 am : link
interview with Dan Kantrovitz who the Mets tried prying away from the Cubs this off-season
Link - ( New Window )
Young players  
Shecky : 2/13/2024 10:48 am : link
The development of younger kids in the US the past decade is incredible. Kids are living. breathing the game more than ever. have access to more/better training at 12 than colleges used to offer.

But, it is starting to shift to really bad habits with the next wave. Everyone is chasing Velo and EV. No one is teaching the fundamentals anymore, they are all chasing the PG measurements now. A one time max number is all that matters anymore.

In a sense, it will make old school scouting important again. And drafting a good player out of HS and into your system ASAP - before they chase their max metrics.

enough of my rant lol
Great  
DanMetroMan : 2/13/2024 10:51 am : link
read on sinkers which features one of the Mets newest pitchers (Michael Tonkin)
Link - ( New Window )
.  
DanMetroMan : 2/13/2024 10:54 am : link
@Mets have released OFer Francis De Leon. De Leon signed 1/2021 and hit a combined .176/.339/.261 over 68 minor league games
Heyman  
DanMetroMan : 2/13/2024 11:06 am : link
In Cohen’s first three years the Mets made a lot of well-intentioned decisions that seemed wise (or at least they did at the time). However, the all-time financial whiz wanted to win so badly he dug a financial hole that is unprecedented, and by some estimates reached a $200M loss in 2023. (Cohen has only admitted in past interviews the loss was “bigger than a bread box.”) Nobody can accept losing that much money, no matter how filthy rich. I can’t blame him a bit for this one-year pullback.
.  
DanMetroMan : 2/13/2024 11:08 am : link
FCL season will begin a month earlier than last season (and duh, end a month sooner) 5/4-7/25 this year
RE: .  
GF1080 : 2/13/2024 11:11 am : link
In comment 16397810 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
FCL season will begin a month earlier than last season (and duh, end a month sooner) 5/4-7/25 this year


I don't like this. Less or no time for same year draftees.
RE: Great  
Eric on Li : 2/13/2024 11:14 am : link
In comment 16397780 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
read on sinkers which features one of the Mets newest pitchers (Michael Tonkin) Link - ( New Window )


i mostly havent invested the time in understanding pitch characteristics and trends, but it seems to me at a macro level these things are just cyclical like anything else.

pitch A becomes fashionable because hitters haven't seen much of it, and it counters some adjustment they've made and it's effective for 1-2 seasons. or some time interval where the majority of the league has been able to adjust so it flips from being an above average effective pitch to below average.

pitch B then becomes a counter adjustment to whatever adjustment hitters have made. same cycle repeats.

obviously there's a top 10-20% on both sides who are good enough with their velocity or command that the cycles dont matter too much.

for the more median talents however being adaptable enough to stay on top of the cycles is probably the difference between multi-year contracts and year to year deals.

i think this is probably a big part of determining between which pitchers are worth going long term with and which arent.
RE: RE: .  
DanMetroMan : 2/13/2024 11:16 am : link
In comment 16397813 GF1080 said:
Quote:
In comment 16397810 DanMetroMan said:


Quote:


FCL season will begin a month earlier than last season (and duh, end a month sooner) 5/4-7/25 this year



I don't like this. Less or no time for same year draftees.


Yup. This closes the door on 99% of HS players playing during their draft year. we are likely to see less 2024 draftees participate in games in general
RE: RE: .  
Shecky : 2/13/2024 11:20 am : link
In comment 16397813 GF1080 said:
Quote:
In comment 16397810 DanMetroMan said:


Quote:


FCL season will begin a month earlier than last season (and duh, end a month sooner) 5/4-7/25 this year



I don't like this. Less or no time for same year draftees.


Reality is, with the draft so late now. How many kids get drafted, signed and jump innto FCL action anyway?

Let them get instructs and acclimate.

Plus, ever watch a noon FL game in August? lol
RE: RE: RE: .  
GF1080 : 2/13/2024 11:21 am : link
In comment 16397824 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
In comment 16397813 GF1080 said:


Quote:


In comment 16397810 DanMetroMan said:


Quote:


FCL season will begin a month earlier than last season (and duh, end a month sooner) 5/4-7/25 this year



I don't like this. Less or no time for same year draftees.



Yup. This closes the door on 99% of HS players playing during their draft year. we are likely to see less 2024 draftees participate in games in general


You'd think for development purposes you'd want as much camp time as possible and then games. With this after the games they just go back into camp if not promoted? Seems odd to have 2 months of camp time after games. Was a reasoning given?
Some  
DanMetroMan : 2/13/2024 11:25 am : link
of the reasons include

-The weather in Arizona
- the lack of viable P to get through an entire season, the new setup will mean DSL pitchers from the previous year will fill up the rosters and presumably be able to shoulder innings vs. HS kids just drafted

". With tighter rosters, having a group of pitchers who count to the 165-player roster limits who weren’t getting into games would potentially cause problems."
RE: RE: RE: .  
GF1080 : 2/13/2024 11:27 am : link
In comment 16397827 Shecky said:
Quote:
In comment 16397813 GF1080 said:


Quote:


In comment 16397810 DanMetroMan said:


Quote:


FCL season will begin a month earlier than last season (and duh, end a month sooner) 5/4-7/25 this year



I don't like this. Less or no time for same year draftees.



Reality is, with the draft so late now. How many kids get drafted, signed and jump innto FCL action anyway?

Let them get instructs and acclimate.

Plus, ever watch a noon FL game in August? lol


A decent amount last year.
The  
DanMetroMan : 2/13/2024 11:28 am : link
FCL will also now be used for HS kids from the previous year, deemed not ready for full-season ball.
RE: Heyman  
Eric on Li : 2/13/2024 11:30 am : link
In comment 16397806 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
In Cohen’s first three years the Mets made a lot of well-intentioned decisions that seemed wise (or at least they did at the time). However, the all-time financial whiz wanted to win so badly he dug a financial hole that is unprecedented, and by some estimates reached a $200M loss in 2023. (Cohen has only admitted in past interviews the loss was “bigger than a bread box.”) Nobody can accept losing that much money, no matter how filthy rich. I can’t blame him a bit for this one-year pullback.


if you add up the cash payroll ($330m) and the taxes (105m) they paid out (435m) more than 100m more than the next closest team which was nyy (278m+31m tax = 309m) even if you discount what they got paid back for Diaz bc of his injury.

their attendance was actually pretty comparable to 2022 but im sure there was a significant cash loss. in march last year forbes had their revenue at 374m and operating income at -138m, so not too hard to see how they could have ended up -200m having spent more. though how much of that was a cash loss to cohen personally is a little murkier than that especially since he has so many other projects tied in with mets.
https://www.forbes.com/teams/new-york-mets/?sh=796af9d32154 - ( New Window )
.  
DanMetroMan : 2/13/2024 11:30 am : link
Jeffrey Paternostro
@jeffpaternostro
Going to be a a lot of overmatched prep and IFA guys in A-ball now I suspect.

Jeffrey Paternostro
@jeffpaternostro
This is also gonna create a situation where you just have to start cutting guys as you sign draftees to stay under the 165 in-season limit.
RE: RE: RE: .  
Eric on Li : 2/13/2024 11:31 am : link
In comment 16397824 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
In comment 16397813 GF1080 said:


Quote:


In comment 16397810 DanMetroMan said:


Quote:


FCL season will begin a month earlier than last season (and duh, end a month sooner) 5/4-7/25 this year



I don't like this. Less or no time for same year draftees.



Yup. This closes the door on 99% of HS players playing during their draft year. we are likely to see less 2024 draftees participate in games in general


is that part intentional? i feel like when HS debut we are usually discounting that first year as almost meaningless anyway.
No  
DanMetroMan : 2/13/2024 11:35 am : link
not particularly. It's more about the smaller rosters allowed starting this season and the lack of available arms to cover the season. They weren't looking to avoid playing time for the 2024 draftees but this will be a byproduct. Instead, intrasquad games, drills etc.
RE: RE: RE: RE: .  
Shecky : 2/13/2024 11:41 am : link
In comment 16397837 GF1080 said:
Quote:
In comment 16397827 Shecky said:

A decent amount last year.


Really? Please educate me
Al's  
DanMetroMan : 2/13/2024 11:47 am : link
nephew
Link - ( New Window )
RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: .  
GF1080 : 2/13/2024 11:54 am : link
In comment 16397869 Shecky said:
Quote:
In comment 16397837 GF1080 said:


Quote:


In comment 16397827 Shecky said:

A decent amount last year.



Really? Please educate me


Off the top of my head last year the following 2023 draftees spend time in the FCL. Maybe a few more I'd have to look.

Houck
McLean
Morris
Ewing
Troesser
Baro
Pregent
RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: .  
Shecky : 2/13/2024 12:26 pm : link
In comment 16397890 GF1080 said:
Quote:
In comment 16397869 Shecky said:


Quote:


In comment 16397837 GF1080 said:


Quote:


In comment 16397827 Shecky said:

A decent amount last year.



Really? Please educate me



Off the top of my head last year the following 2023 draftees spend time in the FCL. Maybe a few more I'd have to look.

Houck
McLean
Morris
Ewing
Troesser
Baro
Pregent


Time? Or significant time? I’m open to,learning all about how this works.
RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: .  
GF1080 : 2/13/2024 12:30 pm : link
In comment 16397939 Shecky said:
Quote:
In comment 16397890 GF1080 said:


Quote:


In comment 16397869 Shecky said:


Quote:


In comment 16397837 GF1080 said:


Quote:


In comment 16397827 Shecky said:

A decent amount last year.



Really? Please educate me



Off the top of my head last year the following 2023 draftees spend time in the FCL. Maybe a few more I'd have to look.

Houck
McLean
Morris
Ewing
Troesser
Baro
Pregent



Time? Or significant time? I’m open to,learning all about how this works.


Some more than others depending on when they signed and got into it. This year there will be none of it so really depends on how the organization thought about getting them game time the same year. I would think it helps so they see what they need to work on in the off-season.
What  
DanMetroMan : 2/13/2024 12:33 pm : link
you will likely see if HS players who really impress in the complex, get a little taste in the FSL, but that won't be the norm by any stretch. We will also see more players cut by organizations that go on to success with other teams.
RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: .  
Shecky : 2/13/2024 12:34 pm : link
In comment 16397944 GF1080 said:
Quote:
In comment 16397939 Shecky said:


Quote:


In comment 16397890 GF1080 said:





Some more than others depending on when they signed and got into it. This year there will be none of it so really depends on how the organization thought about getting them game time the same year. I would think it helps so they see what they need to work on in the off-season.


We’ll color me impressed.

I thought Dan was the biggest draft and lower level minor league guru around here. But to whip out the draft class like that. Off the top of your head. Mind blowing. 🤯
RE: What  
Shecky : 2/13/2024 12:36 pm : link
In comment 16397948 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
you will likely see if HS players who really impress in the complex, get a little taste in the FSL, but that won't be the norm by any stretch. We will also see more players cut by organizations that go on to success with other teams.


Let’s see who the shrewd GMs are who can pick off 3/1s and added throw ins to trades from the deeper farms this summer.
RE: Decent  
Eric on Li : 2/13/2024 12:39 pm : link
In comment 16397771 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
interview with Dan Kantrovitz who the Mets tried prying away from the Cubs this off-season Link - ( New Window )


this was interesting:

Quote:
Laurila: That’s a good segue to one more thing I want to ask you about. Having held top scouting roles with three different organizations over the past two decades, you’ve seen firsthand how the job has evolved. What most stands out in that regard?

Kantrovitz: “Over time, I think we’ve seen the role of a scouting director evolve quite a bit in terms of just needing to understand how to take scouting evaluations to a financial valuation. Managing the department, optimizing scouting coverage, developing and retaining good scouts… all those things are as important as ever. But since executing the draft is still arguably the most impactful part of the job, I think it is more important than ever to have a knowledge base in player valuation. I mean, I’ve found that most of the scouting disagreements — in terms of where a player is on the board — stem from the valuation component and its corresponding adjustments more so than the actual scouting evaluations. So, not just interpreting what the scouts are saying but also understanding how to take the model output and make a decision.”


kind of crazy how big of a leap has occurred in just the last 5 years from public places like fangraphs/savant. it feels like just yesterday we were all arguing over things like cuddyer and flores and ra dickey trades, and i feel like in doing so i was so much less knowledgeable than today.
RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: .  
GF1080 : 2/13/2024 12:41 pm : link
In comment 16397951 Shecky said:
Quote:
In comment 16397944 GF1080 said:


Quote:


In comment 16397939 Shecky said:


Quote:


In comment 16397890 GF1080 said:





Some more than others depending on when they signed and got into it. This year there will be none of it so really depends on how the organization thought about getting them game time the same year. I would think it helps so they see what they need to work on in the off-season.



We’ll color me impressed.

I thought Dan was the biggest draft and lower level minor league guru around here. But to whip out the draft class like that. Off the top of your head. Mind blowing. 🤯


Dan is the ultimate guru. I will pretty much always defer to him.

A few of the college guys I can see going straight to FSL. Will be a shame we won't get to see HS same year debuts unless they are really special.
Another  
DanMetroMan : 2/13/2024 12:46 pm : link
byproduct is going to be that indy leagues are likely to land younger, and "better" talent so teams (likely) are going to ramp up scouting in those areas. The Ducks and Ferryhawks tend to load up (Ferryhawks this will only be year 2) on recognizable names (and I'm sure they still will) but we may well see some younger, more recently drafted/signed players land there.
Peterson  
DanMetroMan : 2/13/2024 12:55 pm : link
has begun throwing
Link - ( New Window )
Good  
DanMetroMan : 2/13/2024 3:39 pm : link
pro and con of Vientos
Link - ( New Window )
RE: Good  
Eric on Li : 2/13/2024 4:00 pm : link
In comment 16398162 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
pro and con of Vientos Link - ( New Window )


great article. these high velocity stats are obviously SSS but interesting given that he also had the highest bat speed on the team last year (cant find it on savant anymore but i have it exported). he clearly has raw power talent that can play in games, just a question of whether or not he can acclimate it consistently enough.

.179 iso in the 184 2nd half PAs last year is above average so while there's holes the power is showing up already more than people realize. needing to make more soft contact seems like an easier ask than vice versa.

RE: Who hits behind Alonso?  
Section331 : 2/13/2024 4:15 pm : link
In comment 16397622 dannysection 313 said:
Quote:
Assuming some combo of Nimmo, Lindor, McNeil, Marte (if healthy) are 1-3 and Alonso is 4, who hits 5?

Pete may not see many fastballs.

He puts a lot of pressure on himself, with no protection behind him, well....not good, but if he wants the big $, maybe he just needs to figure it out...


Whoever it is, he (they) can’t be any worse than last year. Mets wee dead last in MLB in OPS from the 5-hole. That has to get better. It’s amazing Pete hit as well as he did.
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